The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
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The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression | 12/10/15 |
| Duck-like contagious pit | 12/12/15 |
| Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression | 01/02/17 |
| alcoholic frozen kitchen | 01/06/16 |
| Sexy vermilion property | 01/06/16 |
| Sexy vermilion property | 06/05/16 |
| Magenta insanely creepy filthpig | 03/26/16 |
| cordovan business firm athletic conference | 01/02/17 |
| Kink-friendly Lascivious Mental Disorder Elastic Band | 10/25/18 |
| transparent trump supporter round eye | 12/10/15 |
| cerebral chapel codepig | 12/10/15 |
| Effete Vengeful Hospital | 12/10/15 |
| bipolar step-uncle's house | 12/10/15 |
| insecure massive church building sex offender | 12/15/15 |
| Flickering blathering office pisswyrm | 12/10/15 |
| Fantasy-prone church | 12/10/15 |
| heady cumskin shrine | 12/10/15 |
| marvelous skinny woman school | 12/11/15 |
| Low-t multi-colored brethren mexican | 12/12/15 |
| Orange Hyperventilating Headpube Azn | 12/16/15 |
| Gay Curious Philosopher-king Public Bath | 01/04/16 |
| Ungodly Cyan Hell Dopamine | 11/09/16 |
| Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression | 12/11/15 |
| slate cracking school cafeteria | 12/11/15 |
| glittery lilac useless brakes | 12/11/15 |
| marvelous skinny woman school | 12/11/15 |
| Henna Swashbuckling Legal Warrant Regret | 12/12/15 |
| splenetic motley trust fund | 01/25/16 |
| Nudist Orchestra Pit | 11/10/16 |
| Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression | 12/12/15 |
| Jade Aromatic Location Chad | 12/12/15 |
| Silver Piazza | 12/12/15 |
| Dashing Liquid Oxygen Senate | 12/12/15 |
| hateful jet associate station | 12/15/15 |
| grizzly dog poop | 12/21/15 |
| at-the-ready judgmental crackhouse internal respiration | 12/12/15 |
| disturbing chrome genital piercing | 12/12/15 |
| Adventurous Becky | 12/12/15 |
| Stimulating Sanctuary Wagecucks | 12/12/15 |
| Aphrodisiac bbw | 12/12/15 |
| Charismatic crusty national | 12/12/15 |
| Fantasy-prone church | 12/15/15 |
| Fantasy-prone church | 12/16/15 |
| avocado ticket booth | 12/15/15 |
| nighttime box office | 12/15/15 |
| Garnet french chef | 12/15/15 |
| sickened really tough guy party of the first part | 12/15/15 |
| mewling doctorate | 12/15/15 |
| Vivacious coffee pot boiling water | 12/15/15 |
| Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression | 12/15/15 |
| Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression | 12/15/15 |
| Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression | 12/15/15 |
| Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression | 12/15/15 |
| Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression | 12/15/15 |
| trip cuckold | 01/05/16 |
| splenetic motley trust fund | 01/25/16 |
| Appetizing Affirmative Action Pozpig | 12/17/16 |
| excitant claret jew market | 05/18/16 |
| Umber supple stage | 08/12/16 |
| Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression | 11/09/16 |
| Carmine unholy knife | 11/09/16 |
| Diverse university | 11/09/16 |
| bateful red den | 10/22/20 |
| talking hunting ground antidepressant drug | 12/15/15 |
| green partner | 12/16/15 |
| Sable big rehab | 12/16/15 |
| razzle-dazzle stage selfie | 12/16/15 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 12/16/15 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 12/17/15 |
| razzle stag film mother | 12/18/15 |
| alcoholic frozen kitchen | 01/06/16 |
| mind-boggling puce meetinghouse | 12/18/15 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 12/21/15 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 12/21/15 |
| grizzly dog poop | 12/21/15 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 12/30/15 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 12/30/15 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 01/04/16 |
| Gay Curious Philosopher-king Public Bath | 01/04/16 |
| Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression | 01/05/16 |
| splenetic motley trust fund | 01/25/16 |
| razzle stag film mother | 01/05/16 |
| brindle flatulent lay macaca | 01/05/16 |
| idiotic idiot | 01/05/16 |
| twinkling stubborn cruise ship corn cake | 01/05/16 |
| Pearl shitlib therapy | 01/05/16 |
| twinkling stubborn cruise ship corn cake | 01/05/16 |
| alcoholic frozen kitchen | 01/06/16 |
| twinkling stubborn cruise ship corn cake | 01/06/16 |
| Pearl shitlib therapy | 01/05/16 |
| Umber supple stage | 01/06/16 |
| grizzly dog poop | 01/07/16 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 01/08/16 |
| Soul-stirring Range | 01/08/16 |
| grizzly dog poop | 01/08/16 |
| razzle stag film mother | 01/09/16 |
| grizzly dog poop | 01/10/16 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 01/18/16 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 01/19/16 |
| razzle stag film mother | 01/21/16 |
| Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression | 01/25/16 |
| Vigorous shimmering institution candlestick maker | 01/25/16 |
| splenetic motley trust fund | 01/25/16 |
| Vigorous shimmering institution candlestick maker | 02/09/16 |
| Soul-stirring Range | 09/06/16 |
| alcoholic frozen kitchen | 11/05/18 |
| Misanthropic rough-skinned striped hyena | 01/29/16 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 02/01/16 |
| Snowy tattoo casino | 02/01/16 |
| Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression | 02/01/16 |
| Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression | 02/07/16 |
| brindle flatulent lay macaca | 02/09/16 |
| passionate trailer park | 02/09/16 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 02/20/16 |
| Odious Well-lubricated Stock Car | 02/20/16 |
| excitant claret jew market | 02/24/16 |
| Bistre Laughsome Field Gunner | 02/24/16 |
| amethyst flirting tanning salon | 02/27/16 |
| avocado ticket booth | 03/09/16 |
| Spectacular Fanboi | 03/15/16 |
| Effete Vengeful Hospital | 03/15/16 |
| nighttime box office | 03/16/16 |
| Beady-eyed sadistic jewess | 02/24/16 |
| violent azure parlor wrinkle | 02/24/16 |
| nighttime box office | 07/21/16 |
| Arousing Drab Love Of Her Life | 02/24/16 |
| Effete Vengeful Hospital | 02/27/16 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 03/02/16 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 03/04/16 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 03/09/16 |
| brindle flatulent lay macaca | 03/09/16 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 03/15/16 |
| excitant claret jew market | 03/15/16 |
| house-broken plaza goyim | 03/15/16 |
| Fragrant locale mood | 03/15/16 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 03/16/16 |
| Fantasy-prone church | 03/16/16 |
| Carmine unholy knife | 03/23/16 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 03/23/16 |
| Adventurous Becky | 03/26/16 |
| Tripping offensive volcanic crater abode | 03/26/16 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 03/26/16 |
| trip cuckold | 03/28/16 |
| Carmine unholy knife | 03/28/16 |
| cerebral chapel codepig | 03/28/16 |
| Umber supple stage | 08/12/16 |
| alcoholic frozen kitchen | 11/05/18 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 03/28/16 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 03/29/16 |
| thriller cruel-hearted quadroon | 03/29/16 |
| thriller cruel-hearted quadroon | 03/29/16 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 03/29/16 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 03/29/16 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 04/01/16 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 04/04/16 |
| thriller cruel-hearted quadroon | 04/15/16 |
| swollen area | 04/15/16 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 04/19/16 |
| Floppy sandwich | 04/20/16 |
| useless pistol | 04/20/16 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 04/24/16 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 04/25/16 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 04/26/16 |
| black nibblets resort | 04/26/16 |
| Deep chestnut idea he suggested | 04/30/16 |
| Dead boyish theatre halford | 05/01/16 |
| Dead boyish theatre halford | 11/07/16 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 05/02/16 |
| Carmine unholy knife | 05/02/16 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 05/03/16 |
| Poppy Provocative Lodge Mad-dog Skullcap | 05/03/16 |
| emerald titillating faggot firefighter famous landscape painting | 05/03/16 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 05/04/16 |
| Soul-stirring Range | 05/04/16 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 05/05/16 |
| Stimulating Sanctuary Wagecucks | 05/05/16 |
| Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression | 05/05/16 |
| violent azure parlor wrinkle | 05/05/16 |
| Jade Aromatic Location Chad | 05/18/16 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 05/18/16 |
| excitant claret jew market | 05/18/16 |
| Jade Aromatic Location Chad | 05/18/16 |
| Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression | 05/29/16 |
| Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression | 06/20/16 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 06/29/16 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 07/14/16 |
| Filthy Fishy New Version | 07/15/16 |
| Umber supple stage | 07/15/16 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 07/17/16 |
| Soul-stirring Range | 07/17/16 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 07/21/16 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 07/22/16 |
| racy zombie-like gay wizard | 07/22/16 |
| concupiscible olive heaven | 07/23/16 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 07/24/16 |
| hairless zippy space alpha | 07/25/16 |
| thriller cruel-hearted quadroon | 07/25/16 |
| Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression | 07/27/16 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 08/05/16 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 08/09/16 |
| Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression | 08/12/16 |
| Soul-stirring Range | 08/12/16 |
| Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression | 08/12/16 |
| rambunctious state | 08/12/16 |
| Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression | 08/30/16 |
| Soul-stirring Range | 08/30/16 |
| Soul-stirring Range | 09/06/16 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 09/13/16 |
| thriller cruel-hearted quadroon | 09/14/16 |
| at-the-ready judgmental crackhouse internal respiration | 09/14/16 |
| yapping histrionic temple reading party | 09/15/16 |
| razzmatazz cocky brunch son of senegal | 09/15/16 |
| Sexy vermilion property | 09/15/16 |
| Comical buff toilet seat | 09/15/16 |
| Chocolate whorehouse | 09/15/16 |
| Light electric travel guidebook feces | 09/19/16 |
| Light electric travel guidebook feces | 09/19/16 |
| Soul-stirring Range | 09/27/16 |
| Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression | 09/24/16 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 09/27/16 |
| Soul-stirring Range | 09/27/16 |
| Fantasy-prone church | 09/27/16 |
| irradiated coiffed faggotry ape | 10/08/16 |
| Abusive exciting corner queen of the night | 07/29/24 |
| thriller cruel-hearted quadroon | 09/28/16 |
| at-the-ready judgmental crackhouse internal respiration | 09/28/16 |
| Soul-stirring Range | 09/28/16 |
| useless pistol | 09/28/16 |
| swollen area | 09/28/16 |
| vibrant private investor gas station | 10/08/16 |
| Soul-stirring Range | 10/09/16 |
| sapphire godawful immigrant | 10/09/16 |
| Soul-stirring Range | 10/09/16 |
| talented elite native | 10/09/16 |
| thriller cruel-hearted quadroon | 10/10/16 |
| hairless zippy space alpha | 10/30/16 |
| Umber supple stage | 11/01/16 |
| Comical buff toilet seat | 11/01/16 |
| Pearly Community Account National Security Agency | 11/02/16 |
| sickened really tough guy party of the first part | 11/02/16 |
| thriller cruel-hearted quadroon | 11/07/16 |
| internet-worthy police squad | 11/08/16 |
| thriller cruel-hearted quadroon | 11/08/16 |
| Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression | 11/08/16 |
| thriller cruel-hearted quadroon | 11/08/16 |
| milky principal's office fat ankles | 11/08/16 |
| indecent slippery multi-billionaire kitty cat | 11/08/16 |
| Snowy tattoo casino | 11/08/16 |
| Light electric travel guidebook feces | 11/08/16 |
| Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression | 11/08/16 |
| Wonderful deranged international law enforcement agency nursing home | 11/09/16 |
| yapping histrionic temple reading party | 11/09/16 |
| overrated stead | 11/09/16 |
| Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression | 11/09/16 |
| Comical buff toilet seat | 11/09/16 |
| Wonderful deranged international law enforcement agency nursing home | 11/09/16 |
| hairless zippy space alpha | 11/09/16 |
| Stimulating Sanctuary Wagecucks | 11/09/16 |
| ruddy bat-shit-crazy site | 12/03/16 |
| Nudist Orchestra Pit | 12/07/16 |
| Appetizing Affirmative Action Pozpig | 12/17/16 |
| white psychic library | 10/11/24 |
| sooty 180 stain background story | 11/09/16 |
| Stirring balding kitty preventive strike | 11/09/16 |
| hairraiser parlour old irish cottage | 11/09/16 |
| Galvanic Hall | 11/09/16 |
| ruddy bat-shit-crazy site | 11/09/16 |
| Umber supple stage | 11/09/16 |
| Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression | 11/09/16 |
| Jade Aromatic Location Chad | 11/09/16 |
| Soul-stirring Range | 11/09/16 |
| juggernaut | 11/09/16 |
| Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression | 11/09/16 |
| territorial brass locus rigpig | 11/09/16 |
| sienna cheese-eating persian ceo | 11/09/16 |
| Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression | 11/09/16 |
| bipolar step-uncle's house | 11/09/16 |
| mind-boggling puce meetinghouse | 11/10/16 |
| Vigorous shimmering institution candlestick maker | 11/10/16 |
| Sexy vermilion property | 11/10/16 |
| Set | 11/10/16 |
| Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression | 11/10/16 |
| thriller cruel-hearted quadroon | 11/10/16 |
| Odious Well-lubricated Stock Car | 11/10/16 |
| Light electric travel guidebook feces | 11/14/16 |
| toaster | 11/14/16 |
| pink gaping double fault | 12/04/16 |
| Appetizing Affirmative Action Pozpig | 12/17/16 |
| white psychic library | 10/11/24 |
| Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression | 11/25/16 |
| Ruby fortuitous meteor | 12/03/16 |
| talented elite native | 12/04/16 |
| Ivory nofapping menage potus | 12/07/16 |
| Sexy vermilion property | 12/07/16 |
| Ruby fortuitous meteor | 12/07/16 |
| Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression | 01/02/17 |
| indigo center | 01/02/17 |
| Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression | 01/02/17 |
| indigo center | 01/02/17 |
| Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression | 03/03/20 |
| Sexy vermilion property | 01/02/17 |
| Carmine unholy knife | 01/16/17 |
| indigo center | 01/20/17 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 01/20/17 |
| indigo center | 01/23/17 |
| vibrant private investor gas station | 01/23/17 |
| indigo center | 01/23/17 |
| bespoke pervert deer antler | 01/23/17 |
| vibrant private investor gas station | 01/23/17 |
| indigo center | 01/23/17 |
| indigo center | 01/25/17 |
| indigo center | 01/26/17 |
| indigo center | 02/06/17 |
| indigo center | 02/13/17 |
| indigo center | 02/27/17 |
| indigo center | 05/03/17 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 05/03/17 |
| indigo center | 09/21/17 |
| Effete Vengeful Hospital | 01/23/17 |
| Comical buff toilet seat | 02/27/17 |
| alcoholic frozen kitchen | 03/22/17 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 04/17/17 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 05/08/17 |
| Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression | 06/20/17 |
| Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression | 08/10/17 |
| Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression | 10/15/17 |
| Carmine unholy knife | 10/15/17 |
| cobalt newt house | 10/15/17 |
| Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression | 11/06/17 |
| blue cuckoldry | 11/06/17 |
| Alcoholic roommate | 11/08/17 |
| Geriatric Weed Whacker | 11/08/17 |
| address | 11/13/17 |
| Carmine unholy knife | 12/18/17 |
| Soul-stirring Range | 12/18/17 |
| Carmine unholy knife | 12/18/17 |
| Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression | 01/30/18 |
| Sexy vermilion property | 06/01/18 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 07/18/18 |
| Carmine unholy knife | 07/19/18 |
| Chocolate whorehouse | 09/20/18 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 09/25/18 |
| cerebral chapel codepig | 10/06/18 |
| Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression | 10/06/18 |
| Sexy vermilion property | 10/25/18 |
| razzmatazz cocky brunch son of senegal | 10/25/18 |
| splenetic motley trust fund | 11/05/18 |
| Sexy vermilion property | 11/05/18 |
| alcoholic frozen kitchen | 11/05/18 |
| Sexy vermilion property | 11/05/18 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 01/08/19 |
| Medicated bawdyhouse electric furnace | 02/23/19 |
| Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression | 03/13/19 |
| splenetic motley trust fund | 06/24/19 |
| bonkers friendly grandma | 06/24/19 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 11/18/19 |
| Comical buff toilet seat | 02/12/20 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 02/12/20 |
| Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression | 03/24/20 |
| Self-absorbed Point Hominid | 03/24/20 |
| Filthy Fishy New Version | 04/04/20 |
| Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression | 04/26/20 |
| Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression | 05/13/20 |
| Filthy Fishy New Version | 06/05/20 |
| turquoise pontificating nowag generalized bond | 06/05/20 |
| Filthy Fishy New Version | 09/09/20 |
| Comical buff toilet seat | 09/09/20 |
| transparent trump supporter round eye | 09/09/20 |
| khaki mad cow disease | 09/12/20 |
| narrow-minded voyeur crotch | 09/24/20 |
| bonkers friendly grandma | 10/09/20 |
| Carmine unholy knife | 10/10/20 |
| lime haunted graveyard | 10/22/20 |
| ruddy bat-shit-crazy site | 10/22/20 |
| bateful red den | 10/22/20 |
| bateful red den | 10/22/20 |
| Doobsian Home | 03/23/22 |
| Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression | 10/27/20 |
| alcoholic frozen kitchen | 10/27/20 |
| bonkers friendly grandma | 10/30/20 |
| Carmine unholy knife | 11/03/20 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 03/22/22 |
| big-titted base puppy | 03/23/22 |
| brilliant boltzmann theater | 03/23/22 |
| crystalline personal credit line dilemma | 03/23/22 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 07/25/22 |
| transparent trump supporter round eye | 07/25/22 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 10/23/22 |
| Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression | 11/16/22 |
| Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression | 04/25/23 |
| Jade Aromatic Location Chad | 04/25/23 |
| narrow-minded voyeur crotch | 04/29/23 |
| Abusive exciting corner queen of the night | 05/28/23 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 02/22/24 |
| narrow-minded voyeur crotch | 02/23/24 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 05/23/24 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 08/26/24 |
| narrow-minded voyeur crotch | 09/13/24 |
| transparent trump supporter round eye | 09/13/24 |
| narrow-minded voyeur crotch | 10/18/24 |
| white psychic library | 10/11/24 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 11/06/24 |
| Stimulating Sanctuary Wagecucks | 03/04/25 |
| Stimulating Sanctuary Wagecucks | 03/04/25 |
| Chocolate whorehouse | 03/04/25 |
| white psychic library | 03/04/25 |
| costumed know-it-all forum messiness | 03/04/25 |
| iridescent garrison | 03/05/25 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 03/07/25 |
| topaz spot | 03/07/25 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 03/08/25 |
| violent ratface theater stage | 03/08/25 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 03/08/25 |
| Effete Vengeful Hospital | 02/18/26 |
| Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe | 05/15/26 |
| insane twisted indian lodge goal in life | 05/17/26 |
| coalition of rabbis | 08/11/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Duck-like contagious pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29364653) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32284620) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: alcoholic frozen kitchen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29532817) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: Sexy vermilion property (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29532846) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM Author: Kink-friendly Lascivious Mental Disorder Elastic Band "October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#37090197) |
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM Author: transparent trump supporter round eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29351706) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:55 PM Author: Flickering blathering office pisswyrm FUCK | THIS | KIKE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29351749) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: Fantasy-prone church Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29351753) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: heady cumskin shrine Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: marvelous skinny woman school (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29359932) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: Low-t multi-colored brethren mexican Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29364985) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Orange Hyperventilating Headpube Azn Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29392387) |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: Gay Curious Philosopher-king Public Bath Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM Author: Dashing Liquid Oxygen Senate March 9
THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
THE CORSICAN OGRE HAS LANDED AT CAPE JUAN
March 11
THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP
March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL
He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS
March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:08 PM Author: Charismatic crusty national Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke myself to a FULL CHUB while reading. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29364933) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: Fantasy-prone church OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29383835) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: Fantasy-prone church And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM Author: avocado ticket booth 190 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29383898) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: nighttime box office fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29383961) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: Garnet french chef I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29384107) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: sickened really tough guy party of the first part 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29384183) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: mewling doctorate February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: Vivacious coffee pot boiling water You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29384207) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29384231) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29384237) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29384254) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29384262) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:43 PM Author: splenetic motley trust fund Can't wait to bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29677869) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31846270) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: Diverse university Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: bateful red den (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#41167037) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: talking hunting ground antidepressant drug This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29384232) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
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Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: razzle stag film mother (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29411300) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: alcoholic frozen kitchen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29532836) |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: mind-boggling puce meetinghouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29411342) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: grizzly dog poop 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29429241) |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: Gay Curious Philosopher-king Public Bath flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29519032) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29525598) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: splenetic motley trust fund Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29677890) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: razzle stag film mother From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:16 PM Author: Pearl shitlib therapy 180 trillion (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29531500) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: twinkling stubborn cruise ship corn cake I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:45 AM Author: alcoholic frozen kitchen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29532843) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: twinkling stubborn cruise ship corn cake Bump to make sure my friends saw this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29535993) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: Pearl shitlib therapy No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29531557) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Umber supple stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29532829) |
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Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: grizzly dog poop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29546163) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: Soul-stirring Range 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29551314) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: grizzly dog poop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29554010) |
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Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: razzle stag film mother http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29559692) |
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Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: grizzly dog poop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29566112) |
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Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#29622950) |
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Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
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Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: razzle stag film mother looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: thriller cruel-hearted quadroon "One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
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Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30183235) |
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Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: thriller cruel-hearted quadroon interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
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Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: Dead boyish theatre halford Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:27 PM Author: Dead boyish theatre halford (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31825048) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:05 AM Author: violent azure parlor wrinkle Yeah bro. You should mic drop and walk the fuck away. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30412994) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Jade Aromatic Location Chad This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30504267) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:03 AM Author: Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30504223) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: excitant claret jew market In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is an all-time great first ballot HOF poast, I'm just curious: How long did it take you to put this masterstroke together? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30504268) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM Author: Jade Aromatic Location Chad cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30504274) |
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Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM Author: Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30583536) |
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Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30746085) |
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Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
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Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30924907) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: Filthy Fishy New Version (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30933127) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: Umber supple stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30933205) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30956384) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: Soul-stirring Range 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30956397) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30987656) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30999290) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: racy zombie-like gay wizard (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#30999301) |
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Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: concupiscible olive heaven Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31006876) |
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Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31020363) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: hairless zippy space alpha Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31022942) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: thriller cruel-hearted quadroon amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31023351) |
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Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31043518) |
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Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31113817) |
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Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: Soul-stirring Range holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31172565) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31172569) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: rambunctious state LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31172627) |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: Soul-stirring Range 180 i want 2 believe |
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Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Soul-stirring Range lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31345879) |
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Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: thriller cruel-hearted quadroon ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31404088) |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: at-the-ready judgmental crackhouse internal respiration Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31404101) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: yapping histrionic temple reading party September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: razzmatazz cocky brunch son of senegal September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: Sexy vermilion property god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31413930) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: Comical buff toilet seat XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31413938) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: Chocolate whorehouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31413954) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: Light electric travel guidebook feces (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31443744) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: Light electric travel guidebook feces The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31443779) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Soul-stirring Range let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31503555) |
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Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31482152) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31503552) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Soul-stirring Range (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31503554) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Fantasy-prone church This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31503556) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: irradiated coiffed faggotry ape (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31592208) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: Abusive exciting corner queen of the night (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#47906632) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: thriller cruel-hearted quadroon http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: at-the-ready judgmental crackhouse internal respiration (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31511665) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: Soul-stirring Range 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31511673) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: useless pistol This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31512070) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: swollen area (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31513385) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: vibrant private investor gas station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31592192) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Soul-stirring Range hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31594952) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: sapphire godawful immigrant Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31594953) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Soul-stirring Range doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31594954) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: talented elite native half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31594956) |
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Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: thriller cruel-hearted quadroon nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
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Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: hairless zippy space alpha close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31763265) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: Umber supple stage Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31772625) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: Comical buff toilet seat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31777531) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM Author: Pearly Community Account National Security Agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31782180) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM Author: sickened really tough guy party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31786832) |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: thriller cruel-hearted quadroon prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31825019) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: internet-worthy police squad You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31833310) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: thriller cruel-hearted quadroon true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31833315) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31839758) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: thriller cruel-hearted quadroon ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31844114) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:04 PM Author: milky principal's office fat ankles (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31842891) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: indecent slippery multi-billionaire kitty cat Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:33 PM Author: Snowy tattoo casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31843660) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:22 AM Author: Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31848552) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM Author: Comical buff toilet seat GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31848608) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM Author: Wonderful deranged international law enforcement agency nursing home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31848693) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:31 AM Author: Stimulating Sanctuary Wagecucks (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31848775) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 2:00 AM Author: ruddy bat-shit-crazy site (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32044462) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Nudist Orchestra Pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32076291) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Appetizing Affirmative Action Pozpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32165256) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: white psychic library (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#48187313) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:29 AM Author: sooty 180 stain background story (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31848725) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: Galvanic Hall 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: ruddy bat-shit-crazy site (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31851790) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: Umber supple stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31852918) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31854576) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Jade Aromatic Location Chad this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31854584) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: Soul-stirring Range (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31855383) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: juggernaut (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31855482) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31863076) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: territorial brass locus rigpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31863082) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: sienna cheese-eating persian ceo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31863093) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: bipolar step-uncle's house you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31863503) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:58 AM Author: mind-boggling puce meetinghouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31866924) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: Vigorous shimmering institution candlestick maker Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31868448) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: Sexy vermilion property bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31866864) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM Author: Set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31867005) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: thriller cruel-hearted quadroon ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31868235) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: Odious Well-lubricated Stock Car (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31868543) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: Light electric travel guidebook feces (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31907692) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: toaster They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31907697) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: pink gaping double fault Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32055646) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Appetizing Affirmative Action Pozpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32165261) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: white psychic library (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#48187317) |
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Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#31989410) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: Ruby fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32044435) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: talented elite native GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32055631) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: Ivory nofapping menage potus https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32076268) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Sexy vermilion property (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32076292) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: Ruby fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32076345) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32284600) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: indigo center October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32284631) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: indigo center ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
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Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#39686962) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Sexy vermilion property truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32284649) |
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Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: Carmine unholy knife (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32389095) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: indigo center https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32412323) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32416346) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: indigo center http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: vibrant private investor gas station TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32441222) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: indigo center It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32441238) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: bespoke pervert deer antler I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: vibrant private investor gas station it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: indigo center The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32441319) |
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Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: indigo center https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32458110) |
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Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: indigo center https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32466804) |
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Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: indigo center https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32560776) |
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Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: indigo center https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32612572) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: indigo center https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32714310) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: indigo center https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#33221553) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#33222883) |
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Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: indigo center https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#34257967) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Effete Vengeful Hospital this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32441221) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: Comical buff toilet seat One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32714399) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: alcoholic frozen kitchen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#32891711) |
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Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#33097887) |
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Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#33256991) |
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Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#33605191) |
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Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#34449074) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Carmine unholy knife (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#34449102) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: cobalt newt house (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#34449138) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#34615930) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: blue cuckoldry credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#34615959) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: Alcoholic roommate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#34636123) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: Geriatric Weed Whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#34636459) |
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Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#34673088) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: Carmine unholy knife (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#34948560) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: Soul-stirring Range Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#34948572) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: Carmine unholy knife (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#34950581) |
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Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#35278621) |
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Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: Sexy vermilion property (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#36168381) |
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Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#36451135) |
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Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: Carmine unholy knife (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#36458802) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: Chocolate whorehouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#36847087) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: cerebral chapel codepig It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#36973680) |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#36973690) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: Sexy vermilion property (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#37090167) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: razzmatazz cocky brunch son of senegal Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#37090191) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: splenetic motley trust fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#37161974) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: Sexy vermilion property (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#37161955) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: alcoholic frozen kitchen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#37162045) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: Sexy vermilion property (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#37167335) |
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Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#37553376) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: Medicated bawdyhouse electric furnace (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#37833345) |
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Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
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Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: splenetic motley trust fund There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#38431500) |
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Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: bonkers friendly grandma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#38431431) |
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Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#39135638) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: Comical buff toilet seat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#39583415) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#39583624) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#39849854) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: Self-absorbed Point Hominid (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#39849877) |
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Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM Author: Filthy Fishy New Version (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#39938878) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#40097972) |
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Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: Filthy Fishy New Version (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#40354730) |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM Author: turquoise pontificating nowag generalized bond (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#40355911) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: Filthy Fishy New Version (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#40896459) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: Comical buff toilet seat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#40896523) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: transparent trump supporter round eye Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#40896526) |
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Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: khaki mad cow disease (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#40908695) |
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Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM Author: narrow-minded voyeur crotch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#40977795) |
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Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM Author: bonkers friendly grandma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#41079968) |
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Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: Carmine unholy knife (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#41088157) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM Author: lime haunted graveyard (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#41166967) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM Author: ruddy bat-shit-crazy site (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#41166990) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: bateful red den (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#41167039) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: bateful red den https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#41167053) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: Doobsian Home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#44203011) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#41200021) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: alcoholic frozen kitchen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#41202581) |
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Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: bonkers friendly grandma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#41222868) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: Carmine unholy knife (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#41261120) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#44196611) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: big-titted base puppy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#44202968) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: brilliant boltzmann theater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#44202984) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: crystalline personal credit line dilemma 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#44203017) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#44911871) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: transparent trump supporter round eye A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#44911874) |
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Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#45378008) |
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Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: Thirsty twinkling uncleanness indirect expression https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#46237455) |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: Jade Aromatic Location Chad why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#46237460) |
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Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: narrow-minded voyeur crotch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#46252623) |
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Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: Abusive exciting corner queen of the night FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
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Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#47428670) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: narrow-minded voyeur crotch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#47430198) |
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Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
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Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#48010724) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: narrow-minded voyeur crotch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#48087201) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: transparent trump supporter round eye One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#48087224) |
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Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: narrow-minded voyeur crotch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#48211967) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: white psychic library (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#48187302) |
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Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#48296972) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: Stimulating Sanctuary Wagecucks 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#48715841) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: Stimulating Sanctuary Wagecucks https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#48715847) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: Chocolate whorehouse Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: white psychic library The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#48715863) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: costumed know-it-all forum messiness He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#48715869) |
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Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: iridescent garrison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#48716330) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#48724299) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: topaz spot 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#48724306) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: violent ratface theater stage Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#48727216) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#48727802) |
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Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: Effete Vengeful Hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#49679495) |
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Date: May 15th, 2026 12:08 PM Author: Exhilarant fuchsia clown sweet tailpipe ABC News has now taken all FiveThirtyEight articles completely offline. They now redirect to abcnews dot com/politics. A needless erasure of thousands of pages of knowledge. https://x.com/baseballot/status/2055309076209492208 |
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Date: May 17th, 2026 11:01 AM Author: insane twisted indian lodge goal in life i sense that there is a bit of a movement to shame ABC into providing access again.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/16/business/media/fivethirtyeight-abc-removed.html |
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Date: August 11th, 2026 2:24 AM Author: coalition of rabbis Weird how 99% of the internet disappeared one day (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2),#50060136) |