Date: July 10th, 2026 2:27 AM
Author: chilmata
Ok, you caught me. I needed some clickbait.
That is exactly the question.
I am not claiming that a regression coefficient has proven a new law of physics.
The measured claim is narrower: as a winning streak persists, performance compresses as a function of the streak’s age, even after accounting for team strength, opponent strength, recent form, accumulated overperformance, schedule structure, and several selection-based explanations.
The obvious skeptical explanations are selection, survivorship, regression to the mean, endogenous stopping, and measurement construction.
Those are not side issues.
They are the entire fight.
I have built tests specifically intended to make the effect disappear if one of those explanations is sufficient.
So far, it has not disappeared, and the same abstract pattern has appeared in basketball, tennis, and soccer using different constructions.
That establishes, at most, a recurring law-like statistical form: sustained ordered competitive performance becomes harder to maintain as the ordered state ages.
Whether that regularity ultimately has a physical explanation, an emergent biological or strategic explanation, or some selection mechanism I have still failed to identify is open.
That is why I am looking for a hostile reviewer instead of announcing that I have discovered a new law of thermodynamics.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5881369&forum_id=2),#49990165)