As a result, Iran can almost certainly obtain a cease fire at any time they want it, as long as they promise not to impede traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. They could spin that as a victory, since their regime will have survived and the US certainly won't stir up that hornet's nest again after seeing the chaos they unleashed this time.

But it appears that the Iranian regime wants a lot more than that- they appear to want to use their new-found leverage to make themselves the strategic kingmakers in the Persian Gulf and likely require tolls to be paid, in one form or another, for ships to exit the Straits.

If that is, in fact, their intent, then we have the geopolitical equivalent of late-stage cancer in the Gulf, and the question is what we do about it. It might be tempting to just ignore it for now and let Iran collect their tolls, but they will just use that money to stir up even more trouble than they did before, including building nukes.

I think we have to use the aggressive chemotherapy approach, which means something like seizing Kharg Island and accepting the likely destruction of Qatar's LNG and other oil infrastructure in the Gulf area. That sucks and will likely cause a worldwide recession, but at least we can completely destroy Iran's oil export industry and ensure that they don't have the money to cause trouble anywhere. And hopefully the regime will eventually fall under those economic conditions.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5847837&forum_id=2)#49757128)

As a result, Iran can almost certainly obtain a cease fire at any time they want it, as long as they promise not to impede traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. They could spin that as a victory, since their regime will have survived and the US certainly won't stir up that hornet's nest again after seeing the chaos they unleashed this time.

But it appears that the Iranian regime wants a lot more than that- they appear to want to use their new-found leverage to make themselves the strategic kingmakers in the Persian Gulf and likely require tolls to be paid, in one form or another, for ships to exit the Straits.

If that is, in fact, their intent, then we have the geopolitical equivalent of late-stage cancer in the Gulf, and the question is what we do about it. It might be tempting to just ignore it for now and let Iran collect their tolls, but they will just use that money to stir up even more trouble than they did before, including building nukes.

I think we have to use the aggressive chemotherapy approach, which means something like seizing Kharg Island and accepting the likely destruction of Qatar's LNG and other oil infrastructure in the Gulf area. That sucks and will likely cause a worldwide recession, but at least we can completely destroy Iran's oil export industry and ensure that they don't have the money to cause trouble anywhere. And hopefully the regime will eventually fall under those economic conditions.)))

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5847837&forum_id=2)#49757140)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5847837&forum_id=2)#49757160)