i'm not saying that LLMs won't keep getting marginally better, and that people will find very useful ways of implementing them in practice - they will. but any talk of "AGI" or generalized capabilities in LLMs is at this point knowingly and deliberately misleading and meant to deceive the public and investors

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5802800&forum_id=2)#49462237)

As big a problem as (maybe bigger than) the technologists themselves is VC. The firms VCs invest in aren't publicly traded, so there's no opportunity to short, resulting in a field where no one shits on anyone else's investment and it's a pure one-way positive feedback loop. Venture capitalists are known to get catty and defensive as fuck at the most gentle/accidental passing criticism from other VCs, because that's not how the game is played and everyone should know that a rising tide of hype raises all fraud ships.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5802800&forum_id=2)#49462432)

meanwhile actual american businesses in industries that actually make and do important stuff can't get any funding at all

"private equity" sure seems like nothing more than an entire "industry" of pump and dump scamming

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5802800&forum_id=2)#49462450)

I am by no means some deep ideological believer in crypto, but when TWTR reached a market cap of $60B while posting growing YOY losses as their -4% profit margin widened--with no plan for doing anything different; dorsey would just give different answers everytime he was asked, and that other turdskin would just start babbling in hindi or whatever and hope that the white-girl CNBC reporter would start to wonder if she picked out the wrong turd from the conference room and just abashedly back away--I really started to appreciate the comparatively Sound Fundamentals of the BTC fake (and never actually used) internet-money market.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5802800&forum_id=2)#49462485)

and then it turns out its value prop the whole time was being a shiny object to the world's richest sperg

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5802800&forum_id=2)#49462624)

The only other thing I would add is that VC switched from a risk sharing model (1970s to around 2008) where partners at the firms would contribute their own capital; to a risk shofting model (2009-Present) where VC funds mostly gather assets and then stuff junk into funds and charge a fee.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5802800&forum_id=2)#49462654)

it won't happen overnight though. our Gen is probably still largely fine, maybe we'll have to maek it as policemen at 50 or something. but anybody under 30 and especially those coming out of college now are going to experience a much different job market

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5802800&forum_id=2)#49462481)

btw i was completely right about models being specifically RL trained to perform on evals, and that's the reason why they're performing increasingly well on evals while overall capabilities are stagnating (duh)

machine learning pumo here didn't believe me, but now we've got the leading guys in the industry admitting it outright

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5802800&forum_id=2)#49462562)

what does this even mean? I don't think anybody ever trained an LLM on Pathfinder 1E rules but it does a decent job of sorting through something that is comically in depth.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5802800&forum_id=2)#49462645)

LLMs can only produce stuff that's within its training distribution. everything outside of its training is Inaccessible for the LLM

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5802800&forum_id=2)#49462653)

for example, in l*w: LLMs do a pretty good job, actually, of evaluating and "reasoning" about cases that have the same structure as other cases in their training data. but any remotely novel kind of legal case, and they totally fail

humans *can* generalize, at least to a far greater extent than LLMs. we can see a completely novel legal case and reason about it pretty well. we can create a mental model of the whole case and think about it accurately and coherently. LLMs can't do that at all

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5802800&forum_id=2)#49462704)