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63% chance the US puts boots on the ground by the end of April
| ''"'''"""'''"''''" | 03/26/26 |
| some on social media | 03/26/26 |
| ''"'''"""'''"''''" | 03/26/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: March 26th, 2026 12:35 PM Author: ''"'''"""'''"''''" remaining MAGA hold outs like gibberish can make a lot of money if this turns out false like they’ve been saying
https://polymarket.com/event/us-forces-enter-iran-by |
Date: March 26th, 2026 1:03 PM Author: some on social media Didn't polymarket completely welsh on the boots on the ground in Venezuela bet? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5850015&forum_id=2)#49770676) |
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Date: March 26th, 2026 1:07 PM Author: ''"'''"""'''"''''" yes. their argument was that the market was whether the US would seize control of any portion of Venezuelan territory and that didn’t occur. the cynic in me says they’re wrong but the lawyer in me says they’re right
This market is similar:
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran as of February 28, 2026, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify. |