https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_and_Lesser_Tunbs

Seems like those islands would be a prime target for any U.S. Marine Corps operations- UAE already claims sovereignty over them, they have airports, are very strategically located and outside of artillery range from Iran.

These islands will be much easier for the US to take than Kharg Island and much less likely to elicit an attack on the Qatar LNG. If we have control over them, we can set up bases to make it much harder for Ukraine (edit: Iran) to assert control over the Strait.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5848168&forum_id=2)#49758900)

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/iran-warn-uae-disputed-islands-abu-musa-greater-tunb-6008571

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5848168&forum_id=2)#49758901)

rofl no matter which island u take there's really no way for iran to fire a missile at it, right birdshits? no way for them to lay traps and ambushes, right birdshits?

and how do u even get the marines there? u cant send ships thru the persian gulf so by air? well u have to supply them, just 3k troops require some ridiculous amount like 20 tons of supplies a day

its just embarassing how stupid amerishits are, it really is

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5848168&forum_id=2)#49758926)

It's a burden being right so often, but I'm prepared to shoulder it.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5848168&forum_id=2)#49762602)

🤔

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5848168&forum_id=2)#49763119)

“Risk modeling employs a Poisson process for attack frequency: λ = 15 major incidents per month (based on Iran’s documented drone/missile capacity and proxy networks). Probability of at least one U.S. base strike in the first 30 days is 1−e−λ ≈ 99.99%. Casualty modeling (binomial distribution, n = 50 potential strikes, success probability per strike 0.20 from defensive intercepts) yields expected U.S./allied deaths of 200–500 in month one, scaling with escalation intensity.”

https://www.indrastra.com/2026/03/the-kharg-island-gamble-probabilistic.html?m=1

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5848168&forum_id=2)#49763153)

https://x.com/mtracey/status/2036460598444044380

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5848168&forum_id=2)#49765752)

Likely UAE. If they mean Kuwait, we probably are after Kharg.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5848168&forum_id=2)#49768230)

Author: gibberish (?)

I think the island talk and the troop deployments are flame. Even the focus on the straight is theater. I heard a naval Intel guy on a podcast mentioning that most of the boats hit (at least initially) were actually struck well into the red sea. Instead of any military action, this guy said you place a US embargo on any vessel visiting Iran. The US can enforce this anywhere on the ocean. He also thought the marine deployments were likely a contingency against possible strikes by rebel factions within currently friendly nations in the region. But who knows.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5848168&forum_id=2)#49770316)

That swing set looks amazing.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5848168&forum_id=2)#49773203)