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Polymarket screwing over traders re Venezuela

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Un...
Spruce frozen library
  01/06/26
get a life you fucking dork
mind-boggling translucent sneaky criminal
  01/06/26
get off this bort you closeted fag
Spruce frozen library
  01/06/26
you really should do this. everyone here hates you and you ...
mind-boggling translucent sneaky criminal
  01/06/26
you are literally a closeted fag
Spruce frozen library
  01/06/26
you literally are jewishly projecting yet again.
mind-boggling translucent sneaky criminal
  01/07/26
i don't see how this can be anything other than "yes&qu...
shivering bull headed market rigor
  01/06/26
LMAO we "controlled" their POTUS into a fucking bl...
amethyst exhilarant azn ticket booth
  01/06/26
It's fraud they need to pay out
stimulating blue athletic conference
  01/06/26
The market is about an "invasion." It's about taki...
Fiercely-loyal Main People Bawdyhouse
  01/06/26
The US controls the territory of Venezuela. The purpose of a...
maroon cruise ship persian
  01/06/26
Which "portion" (see the definition in the link) d...
Fiercely-loyal Main People Bawdyhouse
  01/06/26
Polymarket doesn't say the US has to control it with the int...
stimulating blue athletic conference
  01/06/26
The market is for an invasion. The definition requires estab...
Fiercely-loyal Main People Bawdyhouse
  01/06/26
https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/sites...
maroon cruise ship persian
  01/06/26
The entire "portion" of Venezuela. The US controls...
maroon cruise ship persian
  01/06/26
seems like an easy "No". they dont and didnt inten...
Diverse menage kitty
  01/06/26
(Peter Thiel)
Spruce frozen library
  01/06/26
yes its not like orange man said we run it now
Sick bisexual nibblets
  01/06/26
I say I run Cambodia. They appear to disagree.
Thriller field
  01/06/26
Who does Polymarket think is the relevant authority on this?...
stimulating blue athletic conference
  01/06/26
usually they say “a consensus of credible reporting&rd...
Spruce frozen library
  01/06/26
...
Fiercely-loyal Main People Bawdyhouse
  01/06/26
cr
lime impertinent chapel police squad
  01/06/26
...
exciting red scourge upon the earth
  01/07/26
IRL Topicality moment
aromatic maniacal state
  01/06/26
...
amber bateful whorehouse hunting ground
  01/06/26
companies pay a small army of professional wordcels to exhau...
stirring alcoholic pervert ceo
  01/06/26
It's not vague. The US intended to control Maduro's estate w...
stimulating blue athletic conference
  01/06/26
(guy who no longer has $1,600)
stirring alcoholic pervert ceo
  01/06/26
...
Diverse menage kitty
  01/06/26
...
bronze dilemma roommate
  01/07/26
It's ambiguous on purpose so they can Jew people over after ...
henna provocative resort
  01/06/26
...
maroon cruise ship persian
  01/06/26
There's no ambiguity. Polymarket made a valid offer. The ter...
stimulating blue athletic conference
  01/06/26
Obvious yes But this is why you don't bet on stuff like t...
maroon cruise ship persian
  01/06/26
This is a crystal clear "No." What's the counterar...
Fiercely-loyal Main People Bawdyhouse
  01/06/26
cr, not a close call imo
Diverse menage kitty
  01/06/26
Trump said the US would now run Venezuela. It’s so cle...
Spruce frozen library
  01/06/26
The market isn't what wild things Trump says. (He also said ...
Fiercely-loyal Main People Bawdyhouse
  01/06/26
Narrator: "In fact, it did just happen two days ago.&qu...
maroon cruise ship persian
  01/06/26
This is shitlib semantics. The actual verbiage says "co...
stimulating blue athletic conference
  01/06/26
this. it was a military offensive intended to establish cont...
shivering bull headed market rigor
  01/06/26
Under US law we damn sure exercised control over several acr...
stimulating blue athletic conference
  01/06/26
So Polymarket can call Trump a liar but Hampton Inn can't ma...
stimulating blue athletic conference
  01/06/26
are degenerate gamblers actually whining that their gambling...
Fear-inspiring personal credit line property
  01/06/26
the thing is there are people on both sides of the trade so ...
Spruce frozen library
  01/06/26
If there was a breaking news report that “the us is in...
supple lay
  01/06/26
His house was invaded (briefly)
garnet space
  01/06/26
...
garnet space
  01/06/26
I'm 100% on Polymarket's side here.
Cerebral pit party of the first part
  01/06/26
I was, too, until uh oh convinced me otherwise
garnet space
  01/07/26
Kalishi screwing over bettors on 49ers game https://x.com...
Spruce frozen library
  01/07/26
now this is just a straight up scam
Diverse menage kitty
  01/07/26
Is Polymarket still fucking over its users?
stimulating blue athletic conference
  01/07/26
Just made 60,000 dollars
amber bateful whorehouse hunting ground
  01/07/26
?
garnet space
  01/07/26
i can't believe any lawyer would agree with "no" h...
shivering bull headed market rigor
  01/07/26
...
garnet space
  01/10/26


Poast new message in this thread



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 3:52 PM
Author: Spruce frozen library

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025, and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".”

“This market refers to U.S. military operations intended to establish control. President Trump’s statement that they will “run” Venezuela while referencing ongoing talks with the Venezuelan government does not alone qualify the snatch-and-extract mission to capture Maduro as an invasion.”

https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-venezuela-in-2025?tid=1767732697146

https://x.com/trader_53/status/2008545328824549664?s=46

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567156)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:35 PM
Author: mind-boggling translucent sneaky criminal

get a life you fucking dork

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567289)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:42 PM
Author: Spruce frozen library

get off this bort you closeted fag

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567303)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:44 PM
Author: mind-boggling translucent sneaky criminal

you really should do this. everyone here hates you and you are a dick chopping tranny retard pedophile. the world would be better off if you'd just go away once and for all.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567306)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:03 PM
Author: Spruce frozen library

you are literally a closeted fag

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567363)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 9:45 AM
Author: mind-boggling translucent sneaky criminal

you literally are jewishly projecting yet again.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49568632)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 3:56 PM
Author: shivering bull headed market rigor

i don't see how this can be anything other than "yes". they defined it pretty broadly.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567168)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:29 PM
Author: amethyst exhilarant azn ticket booth

LMAO we "controlled" their POTUS into a fucking black bag what kind of bullshit is this

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567271)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:56 PM
Author: stimulating blue athletic conference

It's fraud they need to pay out

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567336)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:35 PM
Author: Fiercely-loyal Main People Bawdyhouse

The market is about an "invasion." It's about taking and controlling territory. That hasn't happened. It still might by the end of the month.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567449)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:41 PM
Author: maroon cruise ship persian

The US controls the territory of Venezuela. The purpose of abducting its head of state was to establish control of Venezuela. The operation was successful

You are confusing the words "control" and "occupy"

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567472)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:43 PM
Author: Fiercely-loyal Main People Bawdyhouse

Which "portion" (see the definition in the link) does the US control? The US doesn't control Venezuela via an invasion any more than the US uses its power to influence a lot of countries.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567477)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:45 PM
Author: stimulating blue athletic conference

Polymarket doesn't say the US has to control it with the intent to deprive Venezuela of that territory. Even a peppercorn of time is enough.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567484)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:47 PM
Author: Fiercely-loyal Main People Bawdyhouse

The market is for an invasion. The definition requires establishing control of a portion of territory.

Could you point on a map to which portion of Venezuelan territory the US invaded with the intent to control? You're right that it could be a small portion.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567491)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:49 PM
Author: maroon cruise ship persian

https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/sites/default/files/styles/oe_theme_medium_no_crop/public/2019-02/venezuela_en.png?itok=aeBbLnHe

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567497)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:48 PM
Author: maroon cruise ship persian

The entire "portion" of Venezuela. The US controls the country of Venezuela, as a statement of fact, as demonstrated by the fact that it can simply remove its nominal political "head of state" at will, whenever it wants, as it just did

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567492)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:33 PM
Author: Diverse menage kitty

seems like an easy "No". they dont and didnt intend to control any area of Venezuela, they captured its president and are pressuring the current government to do their will.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567286)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:43 PM
Author: Spruce frozen library

(Peter Thiel)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567304)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:44 PM
Author: Sick bisexual nibblets

yes its not like orange man said we run it now

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567305)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:50 PM
Author: Thriller field

I say I run Cambodia. They appear to disagree.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567316)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:57 PM
Author: stimulating blue athletic conference

Who does Polymarket think is the relevant authority on this? Maduro?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567341)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:01 PM
Author: Spruce frozen library

usually they say “a consensus of credible reporting” but they removed that language since it would make it harder to screw over their traders

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567356)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:43 PM
Author: Fiercely-loyal Main People Bawdyhouse



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567479)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 7:35 PM
Author: lime impertinent chapel police squad

cr

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567713)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 8:45 AM
Author: exciting red scourge upon the earth



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49568504)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:45 PM
Author: aromatic maniacal state

IRL Topicality moment

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567307)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:54 PM
Author: amber bateful whorehouse hunting ground



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567330)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:56 PM
Author: stirring alcoholic pervert ceo

companies pay a small army of professional wordcels to exhaustively draft out the terms of selling you toilet paper, and they still leave ambiguities. why would anyone ever expect that degens gambling on geopolitical upheavals described in a blurb with no transparency or accountability would be a good idea?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567334)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:59 PM
Author: stimulating blue athletic conference

It's not vague. The US intended to control Maduro's estate when it arrested him, and the estate is located in Venezuela. Even if the control was only fleeting, it damn sure wasn't unintentional

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567348)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:02 PM
Author: stirring alcoholic pervert ceo

(guy who no longer has $1,600)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567360)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:13 PM
Author: Diverse menage kitty



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567396)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 6:19 AM
Author: bronze dilemma roommate



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49568389)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:57 PM
Author: henna provocative resort

It's ambiguous on purpose so they can Jew people over after the fact. It's a feature.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567517)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 6:00 PM
Author: maroon cruise ship persian



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567526)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 6:11 PM
Author: stimulating blue athletic conference

There's no ambiguity. Polymarket made a valid offer. The terms are clear.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567542)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:01 PM
Author: maroon cruise ship persian

Obvious yes

But this is why you don't bet on stuff like this tbh. I wouldn't even put a substantial sum of money on an election on these platforms. You always run the risk of some Jewish bullshit like this

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567354)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:33 PM
Author: Fiercely-loyal Main People Bawdyhouse

This is a crystal clear "No." What's the counterargument that isn't just based on feelings?

The market is "Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?" And they define "invasion" as "a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela."

Dropping some special ops in for a limited time to extract the president is far from an invasion--i.e., an "offensive intended to establish control over" over territory. If there were boots on the ground to take and hold territory, it would be another thing. But there are not and have not been.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567445)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:35 PM
Author: Diverse menage kitty

cr, not a close call imo

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567451)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:37 PM
Author: Spruce frozen library

Trump said the US would now run Venezuela. It’s so clear that they even had to address it in their statement screwing people over. There must’ve been a huge whale or polymarket insider on the other side of that trade

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567465)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:45 PM
Author: Fiercely-loyal Main People Bawdyhouse

The market isn't what wild things Trump says. (He also said we're going to "lock Her up." Where are we on that?)

The market is for an invasion controlling Venezuelan territory. That hasn't happened.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567485)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:48 PM
Author: maroon cruise ship persian

Narrator: "In fact, it did just happen two days ago."

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567493)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:49 PM
Author: stimulating blue athletic conference

This is shitlib semantics. The actual verbiage says "commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela." Trump doesn't have to actually run anything, he only has to commence a military offensive with that intent. Having actual control is sufficient but not NECESSARY to prove intent.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567498)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:54 PM
Author: shivering bull headed market rigor

this. it was a military offensive intended to establish control over caracas generally and at the very least maduro's residence for however long it was necessary in order to capture him.

the issue here is "control" and the time period it takes to constitute it. polymarket thought they were describing something more permanent and substantial, but they didn't spell that out and i think it's hard to argue that landing a bunch of helicopters into maduro's front yard, killing his security guards, and forcibly removing him wasn't taking "control" of his house which is a "portion" of venezuela. "intent" is there the minute you give the order.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567509)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:57 PM
Author: stimulating blue athletic conference

Under US law we damn sure exercised control over several acres of land in Venezuela for a period of some several minutes, and not by accident

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567514)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:47 PM
Author: stimulating blue athletic conference

So Polymarket can call Trump a liar but Hampton Inn can't make DHS pay full price for hotel rooms?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567489)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 6:10 PM
Author: Fear-inspiring personal credit line property

are degenerate gamblers actually whining that their gambling platform is being legalistic and dishonest? LOL.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567539)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 7:20 PM
Author: Spruce frozen library

the thing is there are people on both sides of the trade so it doesn’t really make sense for polymarket to screw over their users. they’re just a bookie. unless a polymarket insider or whale with connections was on the other side of the trade and pulled some strings. either way what they’re doing is dishonest. at a minimum they should not have titled the market “invade” if sending the military into foreign sovereign territory and arresting its president doesn’t count.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567682)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 7:31 PM
Author: supple lay

If there was a breaking news report that “the us is invading Venezuela” no one would be like “but that already happened”.

The common sense version says this wasn’t an invasion and nothing in their terms is enough to override that.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567704)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 8:15 PM
Author: garnet space

His house was invaded (briefly)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567813)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 8:11 PM
Author: garnet space



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567795)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 8:17 PM
Author: Cerebral pit party of the first part

I'm 100% on Polymarket's side here.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49567818)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 5:48 AM
Author: garnet space

I was, too, until uh oh convinced me otherwise

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49568381)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 7:59 AM
Author: Spruce frozen library

Kalishi screwing over bettors on 49ers game

https://x.com/dustingouker/status/2008748429024133125?s=46

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49568440)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 8:16 AM
Author: Diverse menage kitty

now this is just a straight up scam

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49568452)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 8:18 AM
Author: stimulating blue athletic conference

Is Polymarket still fucking over its users?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49568453)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 10:16 AM
Author: amber bateful whorehouse hunting ground

Just made 60,000 dollars

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49568707)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 10:29 AM
Author: garnet space

?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49568727)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 10:30 AM
Author: shivering bull headed market rigor

i can't believe any lawyer would agree with "no" here. the terms are so broad even a child could make a reasonable argument for "yes".

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49568730)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 10th, 2026 10:01 PM
Author: garnet space



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2)#49579920)