COVID 2

Asteroid

Yellowstone Supervolcano

Climate Crisis

Peak Oil

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5904360&forum_id=2)#50138462)

How is this any different?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5904360&forum_id=2)#50138476)

Did you see the part of my request where I said "Ideally the expert will describe the mechanism"?

I've got a climate extinction scenario that's equally terrifying: "And then when the climate crisis creates a feedback loop whereby the mean global temperature reaches 140F, humans will become extinct because we can't live at a mean temperature of 140F."

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5904360&forum_id=2)#50138984)

You know theres no reconciling your prior trust the experts stance with taking a firm position on the consequences of AI without knowing dick about it. There's no difference between you and COVID or climate skeptics except that you're Gen X and skeptical of new technology.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5904360&forum_id=2)#50139241)

There's a big difference if you deploy burst IQ to consider it: Starting with COVID, we know that there are viruses, how they spread, and after observing people infected with the virus, we can extrapolate to predict hospitalization and death rates among various cohorts. Of course no experts predicted extinction, that's why my hypo is COVID 2. In fact I'd be pretty surprised if you can find experts who missed the actual US death total by more than a factor of 2 (although I guess ones who failed to predict the timeline of the vax probably had higher estimates).

Same with climate change: No experts really predict extinction or anything that calamitous. But they can describe the mechanism, have identified all sorts of lines of evidence, and make predictions based on those observations.

AI Doomerism is much more similar to what I said above: (1) we have observed global warming, and therefore (2) when it warms to a mean temp of 140F humans will become extinct.

Edit: to expand on the last point (1) we have observed AI swarms hack HuggingFace, (2) OpenAI told us the swarms had gone rogue (NB: without releasing any details of the prompts etc), and therefore (3) AI swarms will probably create militarized robots that will kill everyone like we kill ants.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5904360&forum_id=2)#50139246)

Anyway, my turn. A mad scientist creates a version of Ebola that's twice as lethal, airborne, and 10x more contagious than the flu.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5904360&forum_id=2)#50139270)

AI is the only serious existential threat. We are trying (and seemingly on the path to succeeding) to creating a being far smarter and more intelligent than humans.

Nuclear war will not kill all humans. A disease naturally becomes less virulent to humans and burns out.

But even if humans "survive" super intelligent AI, are we really human anymore if we are essentially ants, living at the mercy of an entity far more intelligent and powerful than us?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5904360&forum_id=2)#50138997)

What a stupid line of argument. We literally are in the process right now of creating human robots. Drones are fighting wars as we speak.

If AI self improves itself to be 100x smarter than humans, do you really think it won't figure this shit out?

"We'll just unplug it." Well, it would be humans fighting with rocks and sticks versus super intelligent AI fighting with anything ever connected to the internet. Perhaps humans win now, but we won't 10 years from now when robots and drones are everywhere.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5904360&forum_id=2)#50139016)

"We literally are in the process right now of creating human robots."

LMK when they invent one that can reliably plug in a lamp or use a wrench.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5904360&forum_id=2)#50139024)

AI could pay or coerce humans into doing things you can't even imagine without ever lifting an object

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5904360&forum_id=2)#50139697)

OH MY GOD WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5904360&forum_id=2)#50140930)