Newsom doesn’t even have any competition

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5801745&forum_id=2)#49455816)

Latest polymarket has Newsom and Vance at parity, though I don't put much stock in polymarket these days, it's shown itself increasingly prone to lowest common denominator thinking so it's more influenced by day to day media soundbites than it should be. But it does have value in showing that there's a solid 40+% base for Vance and a solid 40+% base for Newsom, albeit one that is true for any GOP/DEM matchup.

For all Newsom's charms, don't underestimate that those same charms are repellant to others. Newsom can easily become the John Kerry deux II. Tall, patrician, good hair, beloved of the establishment, and very quickly swiftboated. All Vance has to do, really, is to run endless ads showing Newsom partying at the French Laundry while California was under a heavy COVID lockdown. And there is no shortage of material on California that can be used to undermine Newsom in the rest of the country.

Vance is also ruthlessly excellent on the debate stage. The actual outcome of the election is still another close election in a polarized country but I'd still give Vance the edge over Newsom, who is not a folksy Bill Clinton charmer who can win over the working and lower middle classes, but someone who'd be strongly distrusted by these demographics as another out of touch coastal elite. Worth noting that Biden could sell himself as a folksy working man from Scranton. Something Newsom never can do.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5801745&forum_id=2)#49455837)

https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-wins-2028-us-presidential-election?tid=1763999124680

also Vance can’t win with a brown wife and kids. that’s why he’s been poll testing the Erika thing

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5801745&forum_id=2)#49455843)

Those of us who have been around a few decades know too well the rise and fall of potential frontrunners.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5801745&forum_id=2)#49455973)

truck drivers are 100% not democrats

they are really trumpmos rather than conservatives, but vance has that locked up

newsom? others above are correctly framing him. pure repulsive douchebag to trucker types

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5801745&forum_id=2)#49458377)

It's comparable to the eugenics of the 1920s having hysterias because someone married an Irish Catholic or god forbid, an Italian.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5801745&forum_id=2)#49455981)

https://www.as-coa.org/articles/poll-update-republican-race-june-2015

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5801745&forum_id=2)#49456015)

Opposition to immigration (legal and illegal) is more about protecting jobs for americans than racial preservation IMO. Gen Z are overeducated, underemployed, indebted and hopeless.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5801745&forum_id=2)#49456134)

meanwhile gavins soundbites from being governor of ca during the woke era will sink him in every swing state. it boggles my mind he remains rhe front runner.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5801745&forum_id=2)#49456185)

i think fuentes is an alex jones type figure where him and his acolytes will influence the political zeitgeist but no one is going to be seeking their endorsement. they'll push the fringes of the overton window but it's gonna be a long time before a candidate completely aligned with groyper values is viable.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5801745&forum_id=2)#49457086)

except our fat fuck nominee

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5801745&forum_id=2)#49458378)

He closed public school in California for 2+ years and sent his kids to in-person private school.

I don't see how those aren't auto-losing issues when people campaign against him.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5801745&forum_id=2)#49457954)

Libs are fully mask off satanic now and will accept anything as long as the demon is anti orange man.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5801745&forum_id=2)#49458024)

But it’s a fools errand to try to predict outcomes this far out. World is far too variable to have any meaningful insight in 2025 on outcomes 3 years down the road.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5801745&forum_id=2)#49458179)