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which answer do you choose in this puzzle? (xo engagement bait)
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Date: March 10th, 2026 11:59 AM Author: project bluebeam foot soldier TOTAL VOTES:
BOX A ONLY: 6
BOTH BOXES: 2
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Setup: You walk into a room. There are two boxes.
Box A (opaque) — contains either $1,000,000 or $0.
Box B (transparent) — contains $1,000 (you can see this).
A highly reliable, God-Like AI Predictor (almost always right) has already predicted, before you walked into the room, whether you will take only Box A or both boxes. Its prediction includes the assumption that you will be aware of the rules of the game and of it making this prediction.
If the Predictor predicted you will take only Box A, they put $1,000,000 in Box A.
If the Predictor predicted you will take both boxes, they put $0 in Box A.
Now the boxes are in front of you. You must choose right now, and your choice does not affect the Predictor anymore (the prediction and the filling already happened).
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Do you take only Box A (hoping for $1,000,000), or do you take both Box A and Box B (guaranteeing the $1,000 but possibly losing the million, but with a higher maximum payoff of $1,001,000)? Why? |
Date: March 10th, 2026 11:59 AM Author: project bluebeam foot soldier i'm a two-boxer myself (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5843901&forum_id=2)#49731651) |
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Date: March 10th, 2026 12:19 PM Author: project bluebeam foot soldier (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5843901&forum_id=2)#49731723) |
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Date: March 10th, 2026 12:25 PM Author: China but i did eat breakfast today (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5843901&forum_id=2)#49731753) |
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Date: March 10th, 2026 12:27 PM Author: richard clock take box a, the 1K in box b is immaterial compared to 1M so not worth risking it (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5843901&forum_id=2)#49731757) |
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Date: March 10th, 2026 12:29 PM Author: @grok, is this true? A only, but my intuition is that there is some non-intuitive reason this is incorrect. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5843901&forum_id=2)#49731759) |
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Date: March 10th, 2026 12:31 PM Author: spiritually female godfather (gunneratttt) if the predictor is predicting based on me taking two boxes that may contain money, isn't stealing, have the option of taking both, etc. then ill take box b. no rational person would leave both boxes. i certainly wouldn't if its costless to take both, so i know the predictor would predict id take both. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5843901&forum_id=2)#49731765) |
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Date: March 10th, 2026 12:53 PM Author: project bluebeam foot soldier i can't even parse this post
what is your choice |
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Date: March 10th, 2026 12:57 PM Author: spiritually female godfather (gunneratttt) i misread the hypo and thought i could only choose one.
id take both. the predictor would predict any rational person would take both, so it wouldn't matter, but its costless to see if it made an error since it's almost always right.
unless the predictor is in the first leg too (the predictor is predicited which move id take with a predictor). now im in a game of golden balls with essentially an ai clone. in which case id go with A, because $1000 is inconsequential and i think theres a greater than 1:1000 chance the predictor would think id choose that, so it's positive EV. |
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Date: March 10th, 2026 1:08 PM Author: project bluebeam foot soldier still don't understand wtf you are trying to say with "the predictor in the first leg" but this is a vote for taking both (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5843901&forum_id=2)#49731859) |
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Date: March 10th, 2026 1:11 PM Author: spiritually female godfather (gunneratttt) if the predictor is predicting based on what id choose in that exact same situation, then ill take box A
if the predictor is predicting what'd id do in isolation, then ill take both |
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Date: March 10th, 2026 1:23 PM Author: project bluebeam foot soldier dude, what? lol
what exact same situation? isolation from what? huh?
the predictor is predicting (with 99.99999%+ accuracy) which choice you will make based on the rules of the game laid out in op. not sure if this helps or not |
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Date: March 10th, 2026 1:37 PM Author: spiritually female godfather (gunneratttt) your hypo is ambiguous about whether the predictor is predicting whether id take both boxes if there was no predictor (just two boxes, i can have one or both, no information about the odds of what's in box a or how that wad decided) or whether it's predicting what i would do under the exact same circumstances (with a predictor).
then i misred the question as "do you take A or B" instead of "do you take A or both?" under my A or B reading, the 100% correct answer would be B, and i thought you were asking this to see how many people would choose incorrectly because $1k is insignificant
if i had read your question correctly the context clue would have resolved the ambiguity. it was a rc fail on my part. |
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Date: March 10th, 2026 1:41 PM Author: project bluebeam foot soldier there is no hypo without the predictor and its prediction, and your awareness of the predictor and him making a prediction. it's woven in to the hypo
although the way you are thinking about this is on the right track imo |
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Date: March 10th, 2026 2:01 PM Author: spiritually female godfather (gunneratttt) yes i understood that a few poasts ago and said id take A.
i would choose A because $1k is inconsequential. im truly engaging in this hypo by *not* thinking of it further than that. if i choose A based on my gut, legitimately, not trying to game the predictor as it has already put/not put the money in A, then there's at least a chance the predictor would have predicted that (and under your hypo it *did* do that, because it was legitimately my first instinct.)
its kinda like quantum mechanics. the longer i think about it, the more likely i am to reach an optimal answer, which could be both. thus my actions right now do impact what the predictor has already done. |
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Date: March 10th, 2026 12:39 PM Author: Fucking Fuckface Box A only. I don't really care about $1k. Any semi-competent AI would know this about me. And if I'm wrong, oh well. That's like 4 visits to a decent restaurant at today's prices (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5843901&forum_id=2)#49731784) |
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Date: March 10th, 2026 12:42 PM Author: peeface i say A, because i assume this AI will use these posts in its training data and i want it to believe that is the choice i would make.
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Date: March 10th, 2026 1:07 PM Author: project bluebeam foot soldier (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5843901&forum_id=2)#49731856) |
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Date: March 10th, 2026 12:43 PM Author: Waingro dont take either. just open up the opaque one to see if theres money in it and take the money if there is. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5843901&forum_id=2)#49731793) |
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Date: March 10th, 2026 12:58 PM Author: Wes Scantlin Height of Predictor? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5843901&forum_id=2)#49731835) |
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Date: March 10th, 2026 1:17 PM Author: things from the 90s/00s so ethereal and dreamlike: (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5843901&forum_id=2)#49731885) |
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Date: March 10th, 2026 1:11 PM Author: jonathan penis does the ai assume i know the rules of the game before it makes its selection? seems obvious i would only choose Box A in that scenario. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5843901&forum_id=2)#49731864) |
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Date: March 10th, 2026 1:20 PM Author: project bluebeam foot soldier yes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5843901&forum_id=2)#49731901) |
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Date: March 10th, 2026 1:40 PM Author: lex This is a key detail. Please revise the hypo to account for this critical information. Thankl (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5843901&forum_id=2)#49731971) |
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Date: March 10th, 2026 1:47 PM Author: project bluebeam foot soldier i mean it's actually implicit in the original wording. but i added an additional sentence to clarify this. not actually sure it makes things clearer though...let me know (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5843901&forum_id=2)#49731998) |
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Date: March 10th, 2026 1:23 PM Author: goyim in abundanceeeeee If I take Box A and there's no money in it, then does this necessarily mean that the AI predictor was inherently wrong at guessing what I would do, and if so, can I sue for damages? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5843901&forum_id=2)#49731911) |
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Date: March 10th, 2026 1:49 PM Author: tancredi marchiolo there is no situation where id take box b even if a was empty not worth my time |
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Date: March 10th, 2026 1:53 PM Author: project bluebeam foot soldier then increase the amount of money in Box B to whatever amount of money would be worth your time, in order to make the hypo work (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5843901&forum_id=2)#49732019) |
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Date: March 10th, 2026 1:54 PM Author: goyim in abundanceeeeee This is the plot of Deal or No Deal dummy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5843901&forum_id=2)#49732023) |
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Date: March 10th, 2026 1:55 PM Author: tancredi marchiolo 500k
in that situation i only take b |
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Date: March 10th, 2026 1:57 PM Author: goyim in abundanceeeeee They had an entire daytime TV show about this that ran for 15 years. And you could even make a demand for an amount of money that would get you to walk away from still gambling on the possibility of winning more money and the producers would either agree or shoot you down based on your immediate odds of winning more money. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5843901&forum_id=2)#49732036) |
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Date: March 10th, 2026 1:57 PM Author: project bluebeam foot soldier you are misreading the hypo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5843901&forum_id=2)#49732038) |