WDC stock guy
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Date: August 12th, 2021 2:13 PM Author: floppy pit
hmm. seems like the immediate driver for today’s move is morgan stanley downgrading micron. but micron sells mainly DRAM chips with different demand drivers than wdc’s hard drives + flash.
lemme think more about whether this is a good near term entry point. but if you have a longer term horizon it’s a steal. there are some obvious catalysts on the horizon (eg kioxia’s imminent ipo) that do not seem reflected in the valuation
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4897836&forum_id=2)#42935881) |
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Date: August 25th, 2021 6:20 PM Author: floppy pit
Yes. This will be a 100% stock deal which normally should make you nervous bc of dilution. But this is a very special case.
Here’s the global flash memory market (sk Hynix and intel have already merged):
https://blocksandfiles.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/2Q20-NAND-suppliers-revenue-share.jpg
There’s only room for maybe 3 large players globally because it requires gigantic fixed costs. So it’s been horrifically unprofitable lately bc of oversupply.
Kioxia and WDC merging would help everyone including themselves obviously. And normally it’d be a nightmare to combine different technologies, but these two have been sharing the same tech + facilities under JVs since 2016.
So tldr yes you should hold imo. Micron could be interesting to watch as well since I’m guessing they’ll sell their flash business to wdc too before long
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4897836&forum_id=2)#43008404) |
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