SINGAPORE – Governing leaders should prepare to navigate a complex world order with three superpowers in ways that may enhance their own positions and interests.

That was the frank assessment of former British prime minister Tony Blair in an interview with The Straits Times on Sept 23, while he was in Singapore for the annual Asia Summit of American think-tank Milken Institute.

“You have got to decide where your country fits in the world, because it is going to be a world that is going to be multipolar, (where there) will be, in my view, by the middle of this century, three superpowers effectively: America, China and probably India,” said Mr Blair, who is a self-professed centrist.

“Therefore, you are going to have to build strong alliances that enable you to talk to these three superpowers with some level of, you know, equality,” he added.

As it stands, the International Monetary Fund and World Economic Forum are projecting that India may grow to be the world’s third-largest economy by the end of this decade, eclipsed by only the US and China.

The geopolitical rivalry between the US and China is now also manifest in economic and industrial policy.

The US has not only barred Chinese access to advanced semiconductor technology, but also slapped tariffs on Chinese products in several strategic sectors ranging from electric vehicles and batteries, to critical minerals, solar cells and medical products.

Under the current Biden administration, the US has sought to do that by placing a greater emphasis on alliances and minilaterals for security and economic reasons.

Minilaterals are small groups of nations coming together to work on specific issues and shared interests.

India is among America’s friend-shoring partners – despite being friendly towards Russia – as technology firms seek to diversify their supply chain and manufacturing beyond China.

In response, China is also forming and fortifying its own alliances, chiefly with Russia, Iran and North Korea.

By Mr Blair’s own admission, the world today is vastly trickier and more complex compared with when he was British prime minister from 1997 to 2007, when the US was the world’s only superpower.

The importance of being consistent

Still, Mr Blair preaches the importance of consistency in international affairs in his latest book On Leadership.

He references his own experience supporting the US to invade Afghanistan in the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks to overthrow the Taliban and destroy Al-Qaeda and its leader Osama bin Laden.

It was Mr Blair’s support of the 2003 US invasion of Iraq that vastly diminished his popularity and eventually led to his resignation in mid-2007, shortly after winning a third term in office for the Labour Party.

A British public inquiry in 2016 found little evidence Iraq’s then President Saddam Hussein presented an imminent threat at the point of invasion, and faulted the way Mr Blair judged the situation “with a certainty that was not justified”.

“For me, it was about supporting America post-9/11, being a strong ally of America, but also dealing with the problem that we could see arising, which was highly unstable regimes,” Mr Blair told ST.

“So, the issue was ensuring, in the aftermath of that terrorist attack in 9/11, that the world changed. And as I have said, you can agree or disagree with the decisions, but in the end, the important thing – which is why I was so opposed to getting out of Afghanistan – is having done it, (to) stick with it,” he added.

The Obama administration had said US troops would withdraw from Afghanistan by the end of 2014, although it was not until 2021 that the US fully exited, leading to the return of Taliban rule.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5603722&forum_id=2).#48145845)