Even more relevant: They chose kamala because non-whites will vote for the non-white candidate and women will vote for the woman candidate. Voting takes place 90% at the identity level. Expect Obama-level 97% black voting for Kamala. Expect every white shrew cat lady to just "love how much Kamala serveddddddd".

Trump's one opening is the September debate. He will get no other openings than that. Based on his performances against Hillary, I have no reason to be bullish on his chances.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5561336&forum_id=2).#47876290)

$47,000,000 raised in less than 24 hours.

https://thehill.com/elections/4785224-harris-campaign-fundraising-actblue/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5561336&forum_id=2).#47876756)

$47,000,000 raised in less than 24 hours.

https://thehill.com/elections/4785224-harris-campaign-fundraising-actblue/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5561336&forum_id=2).#47876761)

$47,000,000 raised in less than 24 hours.

https://thehill.com/elections/4785224-harris-campaign-fundraising-actblue/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5561336&forum_id=2).#47876775)

Media tried to promote the Red Wave & hyped up COVID Conspiracies while downplaying abortion.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5561336&forum_id=2).#47876453)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5561336&forum_id=2).#47876494)

So what you're saying is that BEING A RACIST is going to improve Trump's chances with minorities and suburban women?

LOL

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5561336&forum_id=2).#47876760)

Because appointing the Justices that got rid of Roe vs. Wade is surely gonna bring the white women to his camp, right?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5561336&forum_id=2).#47876798)

Trump says abortion should be a state issue & he opposes 6 week bans, the abortion issue could be used against Haley/Desantis as they support 6 week bans.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5561336&forum_id=2).#47876803)

Sorry, snowflake.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5561336&forum_id=2).#47876304)

You have no idea what tribalism is, but you will when the first few black polls come out on the new matchup

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5561336&forum_id=2).#47876322)

$47,000,000 raised in less than 24 hours.

https://thehill.com/elections/4785224-harris-campaign-fundraising-actblue/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5561336&forum_id=2).#47876778)

Now imagine the same Trump going up against Kamala.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5561336&forum_id=2).#47876832)

My one caveat: it's unclear to me that many conservatives cared about the age issue as anything other than a bludgeon to bash Biden with and clearly Biden supporters only cared about it because it was working. I don't think the strategy will be as effective only because Trump is not near the same state of decline. But it will hurt him, and it's another reason to be bearish on his chances.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5561336&forum_id=2).#47876351)

Biden's age came up over and over:

- Interview with Special Counsel;

- Falling up the stairs on Air Force 1;

- Trump Debate in Atlanta;

- Numerous visits by a Neurologist to the WH;

You are being disingenuous to say that Dems DGAF about Biden's age.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5561336&forum_id=2).#47876788)

By taking the age issue off the table, GOP lost their strongest argument.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5561336&forum_id=2).#47876773)

Black men? Out for black men. They’d choose a non black mate the moment they could. They resent BW success and sure as fuck don’t want a BW boss. (On that last point black men are not nearly as cucked as white men and don’t want any female boss. But def not a black woman.)

PLUS the high info black male voter knows 1. She’s not really ADOS and worse — she’s a prosecutor.

This will filter through black culture. Expect “the breakfast club” etc to talk about this.

2. Married white women go (R) and they will do so even more now. A Kamala win is NOT the “first woman potus” they want to show their daughter.

I think Dems will still obv get the white single female vote, but less than most years. Women hate each other and esp hate sluts. Besides… the First Woman President is supposed to be white, like them

3. Mexicans hate blacks more than any other demo and this will open the floodgates. They won’t care about “is she really black” like blacks do. To them, this bitch is black and they’re gone

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5561336&forum_id=2).#47876329)

Trump / Vance need to tighten up ALL comms to avoid race and pray no cops shoot anyone

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5561336&forum_id=2).#47876386)

A comment like that, esp from Vance, could bog the ticket down for a month. And they’ve only got three months

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5561336&forum_id=2).#47876498)

Kamala really needs him to kill it at the convention and hug her

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5561336&forum_id=2).#47876398)

$47,000,000 raised in less than 24 hours.

https://thehill.com/elections/4785224-harris-campaign-fundraising-actblue/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5561336&forum_id=2).#47876793)

What I think is unquestionably true: the media is going to glaze Kamala like a donut. They will call her a historic, once-in-a-generation talent akin to Obama. That she has trained her whole career for this moment and that she is not just uniquely qualified, but singularly gifted. They're going to talk a *lot* about this whole "prosecutor vs. criminal" angle.

But, at some point, she is going to speak. And when she does that, she's going to have two things going against her that will be hard for her to mitigate. First, people will hear her voice. Second, they'll listen to the things she says.

I don't think people yet fully comprehend how deeply unlikable Kamala is. When I hear her speak, I am reminded of Taibbi's takedown of Thomas Friedman: "Thomas Friedman does not get these things right even by accident. It's not that he occasionally screws up and fails to make his metaphors and images agree. It's that he always screws it up. He has an anti-ear, and it's absolutely infallible; he is a Joyce or a Flaubert in reverse, incapable of rendering even the smallest details without genius." He could say something similar about Kamala without exaggeration.

That is what it is to listen to Kamala. I think polling has already demonstrated that she's not likely to garner a lot more of the minority vote or the female vote than already baked into the polls--and her overall position is relatively similar to Biden's--and the only way she can move the needle is if she successfully goes out and makes the case to the American people. And I feel fairly confident that she can't.

Things have changed and the American people like novelty. She media may be able to launder the stink of the Biden presidency off of her. And that *would* give her a good chance. What an effort it will be.

One thing is for sure: you are going to see headlines and breathless fawning that will make the Obama years feel modest by comparison. Someone will say that she's a "savior" in print in the next 24 hours.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5561336&forum_id=2).#47876346)

Imo Obama desperately wants people to go back to forgetting he exists or has anything to do with what's going on and his statement reflected that. The tone of it was "hey, don't look at me". But before Biden stepped down all of this was hashed out in a back room, alliances were made. Signed sealed and delivered by the party grandees. If it goes tits up Obama wants have the least association with the whole affair despite almost certainly being the #2 orchestrater of Biden's downfall behind only Nancy Pelosi who has been openly on the phone for weeks with donors and officials tearing their heads off to get this done.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5561336&forum_id=2).#47876512)

I feel like this has already happened. Great post.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5561336&forum_id=2).#47876361)

So nobody heard her speak when she ran for:

- District Attorney;

- Attorney General;

- U.S. Senator;

- Vice President

What you're saying is that nobody has ever heard her speak prior to July 21, 2024??

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5561336&forum_id=2).#47876806)

Then she comes in dead last in the primary after the tone deaf attack on Biden calling him a racist. She can't get more than 1%. Disaster campaign but she is selected to meet the diversity quota. Covid ruined Trump term 2 the first time and George Floyd, Mail in ballots plus no one cares who the VP is anyways.

She has never won anything that wasn't rigged.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5561336&forum_id=2).#47876833)

Wow, you sound totally rational.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5561336&forum_id=2).#47876850)

Idiot.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5561336&forum_id=2).#47876389)

No shame if you can't see it.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5561336&forum_id=2).#47876411)

I wonder how this has become common wisdom without any real evidence for it. Kamala is inherently repulsive to blue collar Biden-leaning candidates in these states and there's something viscerally off-putting when an otherwise fairly liked white male governor is added in to play a subservient role, it diminishes them. The ticket only might work in reverse.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5561336&forum_id=2).#47877266)

Mccain led Obama in the EC prior to that event. Mccain/Mckinley would've beaten Obama/William Jennings Bryan.

Teddy & Cleveland bailing out Wall Street blocked WJB.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5561336&forum_id=2).#47876521)

Here's the #1 thing people are overlooking ITT: Kamala fires up the base. Biden "won" (taken at face value here for argument's sake) by 8 million votes. Now true a lot of those people are in New York, Illinois, and California and their relevance to the EC is hard capped. But we're still talking about a very large margin in the popular vote.

Biden's campaign was completely DOA. He was 100% going to lose. By firing up the base you now get turnout. You get enthusiasm, you get donor money. There's still a popular majority for any Democrat against Trump. And this is what they're betting on. Every argument ITT or anywhere else about her unlikeableness or her mindless word salad doesn't matter to the base. The base will turn out for her more than they would have for Biden.

Still an underdog but the Dems are right back in this thing. They have wind in their sails. This gives them momentum and now the pressure will be back on the GOP. In the end independents and last minute voters still may swing the election back towards Trump. He is still the favorite. There are just as many if not more reasons why he may win. But it's game on. It's a race, now. Unfortunately.

Addendum:

It's like Steve Bannon said he realized after Romney lost in 2012. Elections aren't about persuasion, they're about mobilization. And Kamala mobilizes the base where Biden did not. Biden was never going to get anybody enthused. So this play only has upside.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5561336&forum_id=2).#47876557)

But the trump shooting already feels ancient and it’s 8 days old.

Will she feel NEW in 100 days? We will see

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5561336&forum_id=2).#47876612)

I'm glad you asked. First and foremost, let's start with the obvious here: Joe wasn't motivating anyone to go vote for him. This is the generic democract effect. In other words, Joe sucked and was tamping down enthusiasm. By virtue of not being a literal walking corpse the enthusiasm springs back. The neverjoe people were right.

Secondly is all the aforementioned IdPol crap. First woman, first black woman, make the election about everyone who's not a straight white man, make it about abortion. There's a ton of angles here.

You also have to remember that most Dems don't give a single fuck about her record, or anything about her personality. This is the Blue Donkey Team we're talking about here. These aren't the brightest bulbs. But this is a major league injection of desperately needed energy and enthusiasm. The base turns out now undoubtedly more than it would have. And it will still come down to a few swing voters in a few swing states. We have no way of knowing which way it will break and it still may well break for Trump but never say never, stranger things have happened.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5561336&forum_id=2).#47876624)

$47,000,000 raised in less than 24 hours.

https://thehill.com/elections/4785224-harris-campaign-fundraising-actblue/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5561336&forum_id=2).#47876830)

See Rubio/DeSantis who both collapsed quickly as soon as Trump started attacking them despite all the media hype they got. Time Magazine Covers for Rubio & NYT posting 'What Liberals can learn from Desantis' articles did nothing.

Serious pedigreed candidates with strong structures behind them show resilience: Cruz/Hillary/Biden.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5561336&forum_id=2).#47876619)

Polls as of July 21, 2024:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/07/21/trump-kamala-harris-polls/

CBS-YouGov 48 51 Trump by 3 July 16 - 18 +/- 2.7

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5561336&forum_id=2).#47876842)