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The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath | 12/10/15 |
| burgundy concupiscible box office weed whacker | 12/12/15 |
| Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath | 01/02/17 |
| Aphrodisiac french police squad hall | 01/06/16 |
| obsidian sanctuary | 01/06/16 |
| obsidian sanctuary | 06/05/16 |
| Razzmatazz grizzly filthpig point | 03/26/16 |
| Sexy immigrant | 01/02/17 |
| Iridescent slap-happy hominid athletic conference | 10/25/18 |
| Elite Sweet Tailpipe | 12/10/15 |
| Cobalt cocky deer antler locus | 12/10/15 |
| beady-eyed antidepressant drug meetinghouse | 12/10/15 |
| Bat-shit-crazy comical pocket flask state | 12/10/15 |
| stirring sick brethren gunner | 12/15/15 |
| Motley Electric Furnace Church Building | 12/10/15 |
| Stimulating emerald abode mediation | 12/10/15 |
| galvanic church giraffe | 12/10/15 |
| aggressive insane crotch school | 12/11/15 |
| At-the-ready big den | 12/12/15 |
| High-end bateful feces | 12/16/15 |
| Exhilarant crackhouse | 01/04/16 |
| snowy brunch | 11/09/16 |
| Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath | 12/11/15 |
| fighting office | 12/11/15 |
| bronze laughsome goal in life | 12/11/15 |
| aggressive insane crotch school | 12/11/15 |
| Salmon queen of the night selfie | 12/12/15 |
| Aromatic Bespoke Masturbator | 01/25/16 |
| glittery station cuckoldry | 11/10/16 |
| Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath | 12/12/15 |
| cerebral pink parlor coldplay fan | 12/12/15 |
| arousing internet-worthy puppy karate | 12/12/15 |
| Underhanded Old Irish Cottage Corn Cake | 12/12/15 |
| Honey-headed massive range | 12/15/15 |
| electric big-titted field reading party | 12/21/15 |
| Exciting center | 12/12/15 |
| Avocado bearded casino | 12/12/15 |
| Curious gay wizard temple | 12/12/15 |
| demanding internal respiration shrine | 12/12/15 |
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| Stimulating emerald abode mediation | 12/15/15 |
| Stimulating emerald abode mediation | 12/16/15 |
| passionate love of her life | 12/15/15 |
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| Silver psychic rehab | 12/15/15 |
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| pale buck-toothed dilemma | 12/15/15 |
| Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath | 12/15/15 |
| Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath | 12/15/15 |
| Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath | 12/15/15 |
| Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath | 12/15/15 |
| Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath | 12/15/15 |
| Nighttime Headpube | 01/05/16 |
| Aromatic Bespoke Masturbator | 01/25/16 |
| 180 pungent gaping space | 12/17/16 |
| Sepia crusty hunting ground | 05/18/16 |
| Trip Trust Fund | 08/12/16 |
| Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath | 11/09/16 |
| Nudist Drab Macaca Indian Lodge | 11/09/16 |
| Low-t Tank | 11/09/16 |
| carmine razzle theater stage fanboi | 10/22/20 |
| amethyst spectacular national security agency university | 12/15/15 |
| House-broken Ticket Booth | 12/16/15 |
| Idiotic wonderful personal credit line plaza | 12/16/15 |
| diverse aqua legal warrant | 12/16/15 |
| Startling library jew | 12/16/15 |
| Startling library jew | 12/17/15 |
| mind-boggling laser beams | 12/18/15 |
| Aphrodisiac french police squad hall | 01/06/16 |
| chrome theatre therapy | 12/18/15 |
| Startling library jew | 12/21/15 |
| Startling library jew | 12/21/15 |
| electric big-titted field reading party | 12/21/15 |
| Startling library jew | 12/30/15 |
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| Startling library jew | 01/04/16 |
| Exhilarant crackhouse | 01/04/16 |
| Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath | 01/05/16 |
| Aromatic Bespoke Masturbator | 01/25/16 |
| mind-boggling laser beams | 01/05/16 |
| multi-colored associate | 01/05/16 |
| Vivacious Cuckold Locale | 01/05/16 |
| Tantric circlehead | 01/05/16 |
| brindle institution | 01/05/16 |
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| Aphrodisiac french police squad hall | 01/06/16 |
| Tantric circlehead | 01/06/16 |
| brindle institution | 01/05/16 |
| Trip Trust Fund | 01/06/16 |
| electric big-titted field reading party | 01/07/16 |
| Startling library jew | 01/08/16 |
| Angry vigorous prole | 01/08/16 |
| electric big-titted field reading party | 01/08/16 |
| mind-boggling laser beams | 01/09/16 |
| electric big-titted field reading party | 01/10/16 |
| Startling library jew | 01/18/16 |
| Startling library jew | 01/19/16 |
| mind-boggling laser beams | 01/21/16 |
| Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath | 01/25/16 |
| Dashing rusted hairy legs | 01/25/16 |
| Aromatic Bespoke Masturbator | 01/25/16 |
| Dashing rusted hairy legs | 02/09/16 |
| Angry vigorous prole | 09/06/16 |
| Aphrodisiac french police squad hall | 11/05/18 |
| kink-friendly floppy stage | 01/29/16 |
| Startling library jew | 02/01/16 |
| ruby halford idiot | 02/01/16 |
| Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath | 02/01/16 |
| Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath | 02/07/16 |
| multi-colored associate | 02/09/16 |
| Saffron Marvelous Nibblets | 02/09/16 |
| Startling library jew | 02/20/16 |
| Indecent house alpha | 02/20/16 |
| Sepia crusty hunting ground | 02/24/16 |
| Twisted heady stag film private investor | 02/24/16 |
| Pontificating puce patrolman | 02/27/16 |
| passionate love of her life | 03/09/16 |
| balding clear nursing home dog poop | 03/15/16 |
| beady-eyed antidepressant drug meetinghouse | 03/15/16 |
| irate mad cow disease mexican | 03/16/16 |
| slippery contagious bawdyhouse | 02/24/16 |
| hyperventilating costumed set | 02/24/16 |
| irate mad cow disease mexican | 07/21/16 |
| Cyan Theater Haunted Graveyard | 02/24/16 |
| beady-eyed antidepressant drug meetinghouse | 02/27/16 |
| Startling library jew | 03/02/16 |
| Startling library jew | 03/04/16 |
| Startling library jew | 03/09/16 |
| multi-colored associate | 03/09/16 |
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| Sepia crusty hunting ground | 03/15/16 |
| federal pea-brained address mad-dog skullcap | 03/15/16 |
| Apoplectic Sadistic National Ratface | 03/15/16 |
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| Stimulating emerald abode mediation | 03/16/16 |
| Nudist Drab Macaca Indian Lodge | 03/23/16 |
| Startling library jew | 03/23/16 |
| Curious gay wizard temple | 03/26/16 |
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| Startling library jew | 03/26/16 |
| Nighttime Headpube | 03/28/16 |
| Nudist Drab Macaca Indian Lodge | 03/28/16 |
| Cobalt cocky deer antler locus | 03/28/16 |
| Trip Trust Fund | 08/12/16 |
| Aphrodisiac french police squad hall | 11/05/18 |
| Startling library jew | 03/28/16 |
| Startling library jew | 03/29/16 |
| Territorial jewess | 03/29/16 |
| Territorial jewess | 03/29/16 |
| Startling library jew | 03/29/16 |
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| Startling library jew | 04/01/16 |
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| Territorial jewess | 04/15/16 |
| hairraiser swollen gaming laptop | 04/15/16 |
| Startling library jew | 04/19/16 |
| Swashbuckling Insanely Creepy Tanning Salon Really Tough Guy | 04/20/16 |
| Shimmering self-absorbed degenerate forum | 04/20/16 |
| Startling library jew | 04/24/16 |
| Startling library jew | 04/25/16 |
| Startling library jew | 04/26/16 |
| spruce bonkers hell | 04/26/16 |
| cream mental disorder | 04/30/16 |
| hot maroon market background story | 05/01/16 |
| hot maroon market background story | 11/07/16 |
| Startling library jew | 05/02/16 |
| Nudist Drab Macaca Indian Lodge | 05/02/16 |
| Startling library jew | 05/03/16 |
| Excitant Scarlet Lodge Ceo | 05/03/16 |
| domesticated windowlicker site | 05/03/16 |
| Startling library jew | 05/04/16 |
| Angry vigorous prole | 05/04/16 |
| Startling library jew | 05/05/16 |
| demanding internal respiration shrine | 05/05/16 |
| Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath | 05/05/16 |
| hyperventilating costumed set | 05/05/16 |
| cerebral pink parlor coldplay fan | 05/18/16 |
| Startling library jew | 05/18/16 |
| Sepia crusty hunting ground | 05/18/16 |
| cerebral pink parlor coldplay fan | 05/18/16 |
| Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath | 05/29/16 |
| Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath | 06/20/16 |
| Startling library jew | 06/29/16 |
| Startling library jew | 07/14/16 |
| opaque appetizing useless brakes | 07/15/16 |
| Trip Trust Fund | 07/15/16 |
| Startling library jew | 07/17/16 |
| Angry vigorous prole | 07/17/16 |
| Startling library jew | 07/21/16 |
| Startling library jew | 07/22/16 |
| sable free-loading azn | 07/22/16 |
| henna knife bbw | 07/23/16 |
| Startling library jew | 07/24/16 |
| sooty odious trailer park | 07/25/16 |
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| Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath | 07/27/16 |
| Startling library jew | 08/05/16 |
| Startling library jew | 08/09/16 |
| Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath | 08/12/16 |
| Angry vigorous prole | 08/12/16 |
| Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath | 08/12/16 |
| submissive quadroon kitchen | 08/12/16 |
| Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath | 08/30/16 |
| Angry vigorous prole | 08/30/16 |
| Angry vigorous prole | 09/06/16 |
| Startling library jew | 09/13/16 |
| Territorial jewess | 09/14/16 |
| Exciting center | 09/14/16 |
| Zombie-like Coffee Pot Regret | 09/15/16 |
| Bossy Double Fault | 09/15/16 |
| obsidian sanctuary | 09/15/16 |
| Histrionic resort | 09/15/16 |
| crimson cracking party of the first part kitty cat | 09/15/16 |
| poppy racy cumskin people who are hurt | 09/19/16 |
| poppy racy cumskin people who are hurt | 09/19/16 |
| Angry vigorous prole | 09/27/16 |
| Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath | 09/24/16 |
| Startling library jew | 09/27/16 |
| Angry vigorous prole | 09/27/16 |
| Stimulating emerald abode mediation | 09/27/16 |
| Dark trump supporter | 10/08/16 |
| provocative lake base clown | 07/29/24 |
| Territorial jewess | 09/28/16 |
| Exciting center | 09/28/16 |
| Angry vigorous prole | 09/28/16 |
| Shimmering self-absorbed degenerate forum | 09/28/16 |
| hairraiser swollen gaming laptop | 09/28/16 |
| Magenta area multi-billionaire | 10/08/16 |
| Angry vigorous prole | 10/09/16 |
| Charcoal property international law enforcement agency | 10/09/16 |
| Angry vigorous prole | 10/09/16 |
| Adventurous heaven jap | 10/09/16 |
| Territorial jewess | 10/10/16 |
| sooty odious trailer park | 10/30/16 |
| Trip Trust Fund | 11/01/16 |
| Histrionic resort | 11/01/16 |
| Olive water buffalo | 11/02/16 |
| Silver psychic rehab | 11/02/16 |
| Territorial jewess | 11/07/16 |
| mint gas station wagecucks | 11/08/16 |
| Territorial jewess | 11/08/16 |
| Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath | 11/08/16 |
| Territorial jewess | 11/08/16 |
| Coiffed piazza | 11/08/16 |
| blue rebellious menage | 11/08/16 |
| ruby halford idiot | 11/08/16 |
| poppy racy cumskin people who are hurt | 11/08/16 |
| Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath | 11/08/16 |
| Charismatic Citrine Pistol Home | 11/09/16 |
| Zombie-like Coffee Pot Regret | 11/09/16 |
| thriller boltzmann boiling water | 11/09/16 |
| Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath | 11/09/16 |
| Histrionic resort | 11/09/16 |
| Charismatic Citrine Pistol Home | 11/09/16 |
| sooty odious trailer park | 11/09/16 |
| demanding internal respiration shrine | 11/09/16 |
| Red pisswyrm elastic band | 12/03/16 |
| glittery station cuckoldry | 12/07/16 |
| 180 pungent gaping space | 12/17/16 |
| lime pervert | 10/11/24 |
| Tan dingle berry step-uncle's house | 11/09/16 |
| dull hideous mood | 11/09/16 |
| walnut irradiated school cafeteria depressive | 11/09/16 |
| Ultramarine principal's office black woman | 11/09/16 |
| Red pisswyrm elastic band | 11/09/16 |
| Trip Trust Fund | 11/09/16 |
| Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath | 11/09/16 |
| cerebral pink parlor coldplay fan | 11/09/16 |
| Angry vigorous prole | 11/09/16 |
| shivering round eye native | 11/09/16 |
| Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath | 11/09/16 |
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| hilarious new version scourge upon the earth | 11/09/16 |
| Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath | 11/09/16 |
| Bat-shit-crazy comical pocket flask state | 11/09/16 |
| chrome theatre therapy | 11/10/16 |
| Dashing rusted hairy legs | 11/10/16 |
| obsidian sanctuary | 11/10/16 |
| Soul-stirring Sandwich | 11/10/16 |
| Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath | 11/10/16 |
| Territorial jewess | 11/10/16 |
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| poppy racy cumskin people who are hurt | 11/14/16 |
| Razzle-dazzle parlour lettuce | 11/14/16 |
| Fiercely-loyal brilliant spot philosopher-king | 12/04/16 |
| 180 pungent gaping space | 12/17/16 |
| lime pervert | 10/11/24 |
| Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath | 11/25/16 |
| Embarrassed To The Bone Mildly Autistic Location | 12/03/16 |
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| Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath | 01/02/17 |
| Erotic idea he suggested orchestra pit | 01/02/17 |
| Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath | 01/02/17 |
| Erotic idea he suggested orchestra pit | 01/02/17 |
| Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath | 03/03/20 |
| obsidian sanctuary | 01/02/17 |
| Nudist Drab Macaca Indian Lodge | 01/16/17 |
| Erotic idea he suggested orchestra pit | 01/20/17 |
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| Magenta area multi-billionaire | 01/23/17 |
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| Erotic idea he suggested orchestra pit | 01/26/17 |
| Erotic idea he suggested orchestra pit | 02/06/17 |
| Erotic idea he suggested orchestra pit | 02/13/17 |
| Erotic idea he suggested orchestra pit | 02/27/17 |
| Erotic idea he suggested orchestra pit | 05/03/17 |
| Startling library jew | 05/03/17 |
| Erotic idea he suggested orchestra pit | 09/21/17 |
| beady-eyed antidepressant drug meetinghouse | 01/23/17 |
| Histrionic resort | 02/27/17 |
| Aphrodisiac french police squad hall | 03/22/17 |
| Startling library jew | 04/17/17 |
| Startling library jew | 05/08/17 |
| Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath | 06/20/17 |
| Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath | 08/10/17 |
| Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath | 10/15/17 |
| Nudist Drab Macaca Indian Lodge | 10/15/17 |
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| Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath | 11/06/17 |
| supple sickened faggot firefighter roommate | 11/06/17 |
| Titillating messiness | 11/08/17 |
| frum stock car | 11/08/17 |
| Godawful whorehouse | 11/13/17 |
| Nudist Drab Macaca Indian Lodge | 12/18/17 |
| Angry vigorous prole | 12/18/17 |
| Nudist Drab Macaca Indian Lodge | 12/18/17 |
| Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath | 01/30/18 |
| obsidian sanctuary | 06/01/18 |
| Startling library jew | 07/18/18 |
| Nudist Drab Macaca Indian Lodge | 07/19/18 |
| crimson cracking party of the first part kitty cat | 09/20/18 |
| Startling library jew | 09/25/18 |
| Cobalt cocky deer antler locus | 10/06/18 |
| Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath | 10/06/18 |
| obsidian sanctuary | 10/25/18 |
| Bossy Double Fault | 10/25/18 |
| Aromatic Bespoke Masturbator | 11/05/18 |
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| Aphrodisiac french police squad hall | 11/05/18 |
| obsidian sanctuary | 11/05/18 |
| Startling library jew | 01/08/19 |
| gold garrison | 02/23/19 |
| Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath | 03/13/19 |
| Aromatic Bespoke Masturbator | 06/24/19 |
| Lascivious Corner Organic Girlfriend | 06/24/19 |
| Startling library jew | 11/18/19 |
| Histrionic resort | 02/12/20 |
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| Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath | 03/24/20 |
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| Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath | 05/13/20 |
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| Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath | 10/27/20 |
| Aphrodisiac french police squad hall | 10/27/20 |
| Lascivious Corner Organic Girlfriend | 10/30/20 |
| Nudist Drab Macaca Indian Lodge | 11/03/20 |
| Startling library jew | 03/22/22 |
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| Startling library jew | 07/25/22 |
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| Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath | 11/16/22 |
| Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath | 04/25/23 |
| cerebral pink parlor coldplay fan | 04/25/23 |
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| Startling library jew | 08/26/24 |
| magical chapel | 09/13/24 |
| Elite Sweet Tailpipe | 09/13/24 |
| magical chapel | 10/18/24 |
| lime pervert | 10/11/24 |
| Startling library jew | 11/06/24 |
| demanding internal respiration shrine | 03/04/25 |
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| crimson cracking party of the first part kitty cat | 03/04/25 |
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| beady-eyed antidepressant drug meetinghouse | 02/18/26 |
| Startling library jew | 05/15/26 |
| amber jet-lagged preventive strike | 05/17/26 |
| coalition of rabbis | 08/11/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: burgundy concupiscible box office weed whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29364653) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#32284620) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: Aphrodisiac french police squad hall (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29532817) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: obsidian sanctuary (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29532846) |
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Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM Author: obsidian sanctuary another bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#30631018) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:16 PM Author: Razzmatazz grizzly filthpig point 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#30144195) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:00 PM Author: Sexy immigrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#32284612) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM Author: Iridescent slap-happy hominid athletic conference "October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#37090197) |
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM Author: Elite Sweet Tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29351706) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:52 PM Author: Cobalt cocky deer antler locus 1800000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29351728) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: beady-eyed antidepressant drug meetinghouse 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29351742) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: Bat-shit-crazy comical pocket flask state Fantastic work ITT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29351744) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:08 PM Author: stirring sick brethren gunner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29384172) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:55 PM Author: Motley Electric Furnace Church Building FUCK | THIS | KIKE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29351749) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: Stimulating emerald abode mediation Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29351753) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: galvanic church giraffe Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: aggressive insane crotch school (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29359932) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: At-the-ready big den Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29364985) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: High-end bateful feces Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29392387) |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: Exhilarant crackhouse Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: snowy brunch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31854764) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM Author: Underhanded Old Irish Cottage Corn Cake March 9
THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
THE CORSICAN OGRE HAS LANDED AT CAPE JUAN
March 11
THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP
March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL
He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS
March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:59 PM Author: unhinged stead Well done. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29364896) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:08 PM Author: Geriatric business firm Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke myself to a FULL CHUB while reading. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29364933) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: Stimulating emerald abode mediation OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29383835) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: Stimulating emerald abode mediation And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM Author: passionate love of her life 190 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29383898) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: irate mad cow disease mexican fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29383961) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: Boyish effete persian newt I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29384107) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: Silver psychic rehab 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29384183) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: rose confused roast beef February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: pale buck-toothed dilemma You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29384207) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29384231) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29384237) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29384254) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29384262) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: Nighttime Headpube (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29525662) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:43 PM Author: Aromatic Bespoke Masturbator Can't wait to bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29677869) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31846270) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Nudist Drab Macaca Indian Lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31846325) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: Low-t Tank Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: carmine razzle theater stage fanboi (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#41167037) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: amethyst spectacular national security agency university This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29384232) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:34 PM Author: House-broken Ticket Booth 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29392396) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:37 PM Author: Idiotic wonderful personal credit line plaza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29392414) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: Startling library jew Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
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Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: Startling library jew Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: mind-boggling laser beams (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29411300) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Aphrodisiac french police squad hall (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29532836) |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: chrome theatre therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29411342) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: Startling library jew Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: Startling library jew "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: electric big-titted field reading party 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29429241) |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Startling library jew "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Startling library jew One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: Startling library jew This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: Exhilarant crackhouse flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29519032) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29525598) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: Aromatic Bespoke Masturbator Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29677890) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: mind-boggling laser beams From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:11 PM Author: multi-colored associate 1800000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29531444) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: Vivacious Cuckold Locale (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29531475) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: Tantric circlehead An historic poast (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29531481) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:16 PM Author: brindle institution 180 trillion (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29531500) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: Tantric circlehead I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:45 AM Author: Aphrodisiac french police squad hall (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29532843) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: Tantric circlehead Bump to make sure my friends saw this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29535993) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: brindle institution No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29531557) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Trip Trust Fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29532829) |
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Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: electric big-titted field reading party (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29546163) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: Startling library jew “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: Angry vigorous prole 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29551314) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: electric big-titted field reading party (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29554010) |
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Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: mind-boggling laser beams http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29559692) |
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Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: electric big-titted field reading party (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29566112) |
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Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: Startling library jew http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29622950) |
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Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: Startling library jew Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
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Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: mind-boggling laser beams looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:26 PM Author: Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#29677719) |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM Author: Startling library jew It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/ |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: Startling library jew "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: Startling library jew "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:32 PM Author: Territorial jewess lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#30160689) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: Territorial jewess "One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 5:14 PM Author: Startling library jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#30161654) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM Author: Startling library jew http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#30163086) |
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Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: Startling library jew http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#30183235) |
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Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: Startling library jew "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: Territorial jewess interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
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Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: hot maroon market background story Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:27 PM Author: hot maroon market background story (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31825048) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 7:16 PM Author: Startling library jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#30392947) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: Startling library jew The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: Startling library jew Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:02 AM Author: demanding internal respiration shrine Lol every response is "how about Obama?" What a hack (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#30412976) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: cerebral pink parlor coldplay fan This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#30504267) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:03 AM Author: Startling library jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#30504223) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM Author: cerebral pink parlor coldplay fan cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#30504274) |
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Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#30746085) |
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Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: Startling library jew Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
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Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: Startling library jew http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#30924907) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: opaque appetizing useless brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#30933127) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: Trip Trust Fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#30933205) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: Startling library jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#30956384) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: Angry vigorous prole 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#30956397) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: Startling library jew http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#30987656) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: Startling library jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#30999290) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: sable free-loading azn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#30999301) |
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Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: henna knife bbw Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31006876) |
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Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: Startling library jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31020363) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: sooty odious trailer park Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31022942) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: Territorial jewess amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31023351) |
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Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31043518) |
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Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Startling library jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31113817) |
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Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: Startling library jew http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: Angry vigorous prole holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31172565) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31172569) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: submissive quadroon kitchen LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31172627) |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: Angry vigorous prole 180 i want 2 believe |
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Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Angry vigorous prole lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31345879) |
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Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: Startling library jew Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: Territorial jewess ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31404088) |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: Exciting center Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31404101) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Zombie-like Coffee Pot Regret September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Bossy Double Fault September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: obsidian sanctuary god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31413930) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: Histrionic resort XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31413938) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: crimson cracking party of the first part kitty cat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31413954) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: poppy racy cumskin people who are hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31443744) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: poppy racy cumskin people who are hurt The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31443779) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Angry vigorous prole let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31503555) |
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Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31482152) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: Startling library jew http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31503552) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Angry vigorous prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31503554) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Stimulating emerald abode mediation This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31503556) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: Dark trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31592208) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: provocative lake base clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#47906632) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: Territorial jewess http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Exciting center (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31511665) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: Angry vigorous prole 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31511673) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: Shimmering self-absorbed degenerate forum This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31512070) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: hairraiser swollen gaming laptop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31513385) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: Magenta area multi-billionaire (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31592192) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Angry vigorous prole hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31594952) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Charcoal property international law enforcement agency Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31594953) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Angry vigorous prole doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31594954) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Adventurous heaven jap half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31594956) |
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Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: Territorial jewess nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
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Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: sooty odious trailer park close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31763265) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: Trip Trust Fund Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31772625) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: Histrionic resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31777531) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM Author: Olive water buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31782180) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM Author: Silver psychic rehab (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31786832) |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: Territorial jewess prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31825019) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: mint gas station wagecucks You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31833310) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Territorial jewess true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31833315) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31839758) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: Territorial jewess ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31844114) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: blue rebellious menage Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:33 PM Author: ruby halford idiot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31843660) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM Author: Histrionic resort GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31848608) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM Author: Charismatic Citrine Pistol Home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31848693) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:30 AM Author: sooty odious trailer park it really deserves national attention (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31848755) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: glittery station cuckoldry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#32076291) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: 180 pungent gaping space (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#32165256) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: lime pervert (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#48187313) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:29 AM Author: Tan dingle berry step-uncle's house (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31848725) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:54 AM Author: dull hideous mood Historic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31849301) |
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The anti-Rudolph. |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: Red pisswyrm elastic band (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31851790) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: Trip Trust Fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31852918) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31854576) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: cerebral pink parlor coldplay fan this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31854584) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: Angry vigorous prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31855383) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: shivering round eye native (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31855482) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31863076) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: hilarious new version scourge upon the earth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31863093) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: Bat-shit-crazy comical pocket flask state you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31863503) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: Dashing rusted hairy legs Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31868448) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: obsidian sanctuary bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31866864) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM Author: Soul-stirring Sandwich (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31867005) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: Territorial jewess ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31868235) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: Indecent house alpha (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31868543) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: poppy racy cumskin people who are hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31907692) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: Razzle-dazzle parlour lettuce They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#31907697) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: Fiercely-loyal brilliant spot philosopher-king Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#32055646) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: 180 pungent gaping space (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#32165261) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: lime pervert (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#48187317) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: Embarrassed To The Bone Mildly Autistic Location (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#32044435) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: Adventurous heaven jap GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#32055631) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: flushed blathering hospital https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#32076268) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: Embarrassed To The Bone Mildly Autistic Location (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#32076345) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#32284600) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Erotic idea he suggested orchestra pit October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#32284631) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Erotic idea he suggested orchestra pit ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
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Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#39686962) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: obsidian sanctuary truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#32284649) |
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Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: Nudist Drab Macaca Indian Lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#32389095) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: Erotic idea he suggested orchestra pit https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#32412323) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: Startling library jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#32416346) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: Erotic idea he suggested orchestra pit http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Magenta area multi-billionaire TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#32441222) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: Erotic idea he suggested orchestra pit It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#32441238) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: Talented alcoholic striped hyena I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: Magenta area multi-billionaire it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: Erotic idea he suggested orchestra pit The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#32441319) |
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Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: Erotic idea he suggested orchestra pit https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#32458110) |
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Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: Erotic idea he suggested orchestra pit https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#32466804) |
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Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: Erotic idea he suggested orchestra pit https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#32560776) |
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Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: Erotic idea he suggested orchestra pit https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#32612572) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: Erotic idea he suggested orchestra pit https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#32714310) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: Erotic idea he suggested orchestra pit https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#33221553) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Startling library jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#33222883) |
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Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: Erotic idea he suggested orchestra pit https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#34257967) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: beady-eyed antidepressant drug meetinghouse this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#32441221) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: Histrionic resort One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#32714399) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: Aphrodisiac french police squad hall (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#32891711) |
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Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: Startling library jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#33097887) |
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Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: Startling library jew https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#33256991) |
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Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#33605191) |
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Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#34449074) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Nudist Drab Macaca Indian Lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#34449102) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: bistre cuck (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#34449138) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#34615930) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: supple sickened faggot firefighter roommate credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#34615959) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: Titillating messiness (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#34636123) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: frum stock car (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#34636459) |
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Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: Godawful whorehouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#34673088) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: Nudist Drab Macaca Indian Lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#34948560) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: Angry vigorous prole Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#34948572) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: Nudist Drab Macaca Indian Lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#34950581) |
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Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#35278621) |
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Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: obsidian sanctuary (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#36168381) |
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Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: Startling library jew https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#36451135) |
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Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: Nudist Drab Macaca Indian Lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#36458802) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: crimson cracking party of the first part kitty cat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#36847087) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: Startling library jew The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: Cobalt cocky deer antler locus It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#36973680) |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#36973690) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: obsidian sanctuary (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#37090167) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: Bossy Double Fault Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#37090191) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: Aromatic Bespoke Masturbator (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#37161974) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: obsidian sanctuary (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#37161955) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: Aphrodisiac french police squad hall (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#37162045) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: obsidian sanctuary (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#37167335) |
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Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: Startling library jew What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#37553376) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: gold garrison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#37833345) |
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Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
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Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: Aromatic Bespoke Masturbator There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#38431500) |
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Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: Lascivious Corner Organic Girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#38431431) |
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Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: Startling library jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#39135638) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: Histrionic resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#39583415) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: Startling library jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#39583624) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#39849854) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: thirsty faggotry pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#39849877) |
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Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM Author: opaque appetizing useless brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#39938878) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#40097972) |
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Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: opaque appetizing useless brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#40354730) |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM Author: Bipolar candlestick maker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#40355911) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: opaque appetizing useless brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#40896459) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: Histrionic resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#40896523) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: Elite Sweet Tailpipe Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#40896526) |
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Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: Twinkling ape (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#40908695) |
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Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM Author: magical chapel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#40977795) |
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Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM Author: Lascivious Corner Organic Girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#41079968) |
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Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: Nudist Drab Macaca Indian Lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#41088157) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM Author: aquamarine sex offender lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#41166967) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: carmine razzle theater stage fanboi https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#41167053) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: Carnelian volcanic crater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#44203011) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#41200021) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: Aphrodisiac french police squad hall (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#41202581) |
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Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: Lascivious Corner Organic Girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#41222868) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: Nudist Drab Macaca Indian Lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#41261120) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: Startling library jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#44196611) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: Milky Cruise Ship (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#44202968) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: out-of-control offensive legend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#44202984) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: Autistic Stage Dopamine 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#44203017) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Startling library jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#44911871) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Elite Sweet Tailpipe A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#44911874) |
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Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: Startling library jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#45378008) |
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Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: Hairless fragrant digit ratio public bath https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#46237455) |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: cerebral pink parlor coldplay fan why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#46237460) |
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Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: magical chapel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#46252623) |
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Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: provocative lake base clown FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
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Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: Startling library jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#47428670) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: magical chapel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#47430198) |
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Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: Startling library jew https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
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Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: Startling library jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#48010724) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: magical chapel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#48087201) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: Elite Sweet Tailpipe One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#48087224) |
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Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: magical chapel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#48211967) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: lime pervert (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#48187302) |
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Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: Startling library jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#48296972) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: demanding internal respiration shrine 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#48715841) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: demanding internal respiration shrine https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#48715847) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: crimson cracking party of the first part kitty cat Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: lime pervert The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#48715863) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: impressive senate codepig He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#48715869) |
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Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: deranged (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#48716330) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: Startling library jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#48724299) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: azure generalized bond 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#48724306) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: Startling library jew "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: shitlib Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#48727216) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: Startling library jew Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#48727802) |
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Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: beady-eyed antidepressant drug meetinghouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#49679495) |
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Date: May 15th, 2026 12:08 PM Author: Startling library jew ABC News has now taken all FiveThirtyEight articles completely offline. They now redirect to abcnews dot com/politics. A needless erasure of thousands of pages of knowledge. https://x.com/baseballot/status/2055309076209492208 |
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Date: May 17th, 2026 11:01 AM Author: amber jet-lagged preventive strike i sense that there is a bit of a movement to shame ABC into providing access again.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/16/business/media/fivethirtyeight-abc-removed.html |
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Date: August 11th, 2026 2:24 AM Author: coalition of rabbis Weird how 99% of the internet disappeared one day (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2).#50060136) |