lemme think more about whether this is a good near term entry point. but if you have a longer term horizon it’s a steal. there are some obvious catalysts on the horizon (eg kioxia’s imminent ipo) that do not seem reflected in the valuation

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4897836&forum_id=2).#42935881)

my entire premise for this stock turned on virtually certain flash memory consolidation

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4897836&forum_id=2).#43007317)

any other plays at today's high valuations?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4897836&forum_id=2).#43007607)

Here’s the global flash memory market (sk Hynix and intel have already merged):

https://blocksandfiles.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/2Q20-NAND-suppliers-revenue-share.jpg

There’s only room for maybe 3 large players globally because it requires gigantic fixed costs. So it’s been horrifically unprofitable lately bc of oversupply.

Kioxia and WDC merging would help everyone including themselves obviously. And normally it’d be a nightmare to combine different technologies, but these two have been sharing the same tech + facilities under JVs since 2016.

So tldr yes you should hold imo. Micron could be interesting to watch as well since I’m guessing they’ll sell their flash business to wdc too before long

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4897836&forum_id=2).#43008404)