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Interesting baseball stat
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Date: May 8th, 2026 8:01 PM Author: Talented Soggy Locale When there’s a runner on first and the batter hits a single the runner makes it to third 28% of the time
HOWEVER, runners only attempt to get to third 30% of the time, but when they actually do attempt it they make it safely 98-99% of the time |
Date: May 8th, 2026 8:03 PM Author: Drunken metal pisswyrm toaster this could just mean pros are good at discriminating (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865156&forum_id=2).#49875835) |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 8:18 PM Author: Talented Soggy Locale I think it suggests runners should try to get to third more often. The risk/reward is such that a 70-80% success rate would make it worthwhile (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865156&forum_id=2).#49875862) |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 8:19 PM Author: mahogany vigorous temple chad They’ll get hosed if it’s a single to left. Right fielders have the strongest arms generally because they have to make that throw. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865156&forum_id=2).#49875865) |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 8:21 PM Author: Drunken metal pisswyrm toaster you're assuming they are not discriminating properly (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865156&forum_id=2).#49875871) |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 8:38 PM Author: canary demanding goal in life Cr, most MLBmos now are Hispanic or AZN aka some of the most racist ppl (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865156&forum_id=2).#49875923) |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 10:55 PM Author: Talented Soggy Locale (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865156&forum_id=2).#49876151) |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 10:58 PM Author: Well-lubricated 180 son of senegal More like they know exactly when they should and shouldn’t run you stupid fuck. Stop having the dumbest fucking takes in every single fucking topic and go the fuck back to Reddit you actual retard. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865156&forum_id=2).#49876163) |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 11:11 PM Author: Gold titillating cruise ship philosopher-king Absolutely cr. All the more so because the calculation is not only "does he make it to third." If the team fielding tries to throw him out, they risk a wild throw that allows him to go home, and the batter can get to second. Also, it removes the force out.
More generally, teams should be more aggressive baserunning and trying to manufacture offense. |
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Date: May 10th, 2026 12:18 PM Author: Well-lubricated 180 son of senegal Yep and there have been kikes overanalyzing every nuance of this shit since the early 2000s and they probably realize the expected benefit of having a runner on second plus a non-out nearly 100% of the time is better than a 3/4 chance of getting on third (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865156&forum_id=2).#49878500) |
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Date: May 10th, 2026 12:57 PM Author: hairraiser fuchsia elastic band That's what I thought at first, but that's basically wrong
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-run-expectancy-matrix-reloaded-for-the-2020s/
With zero outs, runners on 1 & 2, expected runs are 1.55 With zero outs, runners on 1 & 3, expected runs are 1.78 With one out and a runner on 1st, expected runs are .48
So if the runner tries for 3rd and makes it, he picks up only .23 expected runs. If he tries for 3rd and fails, he loses 1.07 expected runs.
Combine these stats with the fact that you can't have very good precision in your estimation of making it means you should only try for 3rd when you're *really* confident of making it |
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Date: May 10th, 2026 2:50 PM Author: Drunken metal pisswyrm toaster exactly. do these sabermetric nerds even Econometrica? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865156&forum_id=2).#49878669) |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 8:05 PM Author: Orange Frum Feces Fanboi you run on a single to right, hold on a single to left or center. also explains why it’s ~a third of the time. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865156&forum_id=2).#49875836) |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 8:16 PM Author: mahogany vigorous temple chad MORTAL SCHOLARRRRRRR (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865156&forum_id=2).#49875851) |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 11:24 PM Author: angry organic girlfriend party of the first part https://sabr.org/journal/article/never-make-the-first-or-last-out-at-third-base-perhaps/ Never Make the First or Last Out at Third Base … Perhaps This article was written by Ryan Gantner
This article was published in Spring 2016 Baseball Research Journal |
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Date: May 10th, 2026 1:34 PM Author: Appetizing Flickering State No baseball stat is interesting. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865156&forum_id=2).#49878581) |
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Date: May 10th, 2026 1:41 PM Author: mischievous lime lay boltzmann (Sabermetrician) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5865156&forum_id=2).#49878591) |