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Taking bets on either m whether Mark Kelly's lawsuit against Trump gets tossed

As always you may only take my bet by saying "I'll take...
Fiercely-loyal lavender public bath
  01/12/26
have you found a link to the complaint? "Kelly sugge...
provocative hell
  01/12/26
Forces Hegseth to say "heh, no we're not targeting him ...
Fiercely-loyal lavender public bath
  01/12/26
https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/72131361/1/kelly-v-hegs...
provocative hell
  01/12/26
It would be a 1A violation to punish any member of the milit...
Fiercely-loyal lavender public bath
  01/12/26
me: https://www.meme-arsenal.com/memes/b0d685bd9276003f29a9...
provocative hell
  01/12/26
Very cr
azure contagious factory reset button
  01/12/26
Speech and Debate clause is for real pertinent discussions o...
Chocolate shrine community account
  01/12/26
IIRC it's been held to protect members of Congress while the...
Fiercely-loyal lavender public bath
  01/12/26
aren't we talking about that professionally done video? how ...
provocative hell
  01/12/26
If a MOC is doing anything communicative within the halls of...
Fiercely-loyal lavender public bath
  01/12/26
was the vid done inside the Capitol building? seems like if ...
provocative hell
  01/12/26
Oh yeah. As a baseline matter that falls under the exclusive...
Fiercely-loyal lavender public bath
  01/12/26
I should be more clear: S&D clause says they can't be qu...
Fiercely-loyal lavender public bath
  01/12/26
AI: Filming Location: While the precise spot isn't specif...
provocative hell
  01/12/26
If you know you have the legal privilege available to you yo...
Fiercely-loyal lavender public bath
  01/12/26
Has a single poster ever taken one of your retarded “b...
Primrose nursing home
  01/12/26
No, which is shocking since they cost nothing and I'm so stu...
Fiercely-loyal lavender public bath
  01/12/26
interesting lawsuit. i don't have any idea who will win tho...
Vivacious area
  01/12/26
Some shithead district court judge will of course turbo gran...
Aromatic chartreuse meetinghouse volcanic crater
  01/13/26
I think he may not have standing because no official action ...
Fiercely-loyal lavender public bath
  01/13/26
I'll take that bet
Fiercely-loyal lavender public bath
  01/13/26
Hey cons look, I took my own bet. I think Kelly8 complaint w...
Fiercely-loyal lavender public bath
  01/13/26


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Reply Favorite

Date: January 12th, 2026 2:41 PM
Author: Fiercely-loyal lavender public bath

As always you may only take my bet by saying "I'll take that bet." You may not add, delete or modify any words

I have no idea but I'm betting the lawsuit will NOT be tossed. I haven't read the complaint and I don't know who's repping Kelly (I know who's repping Hegseth though, lol)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5821142&forum_id=2,#49583774)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 12th, 2026 2:45 PM
Author: provocative hell

have you found a link to the complaint?

"Kelly suggested that the Constitution’s Speech or Debate Clause, which shields lawmakers for conduct done as part of their legislative activities, gives him immunity from many of the topics raised in Hegseth’s censure letter — from the possible commission of war crimes to the Defense secretary’s firings of admirals and generals."

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5821142&forum_id=2,#49583785)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 12th, 2026 2:50 PM
Author: Fiercely-loyal lavender public bath

Forces Hegseth to say "heh, no we're not targeting him for THAT" and turns it into an ordinary 1A complaint

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5821142&forum_id=2,#49583801)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 12th, 2026 2:56 PM
Author: provocative hell

https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/72131361/1/kelly-v-hegseth/?ftag=YHF4eb9d17

i have no expertise in this area but i assume it will be tossed because federal courts will defer to the military process and let Kelly appeal from the outcome if his constitutional rights are infringed.

i have no expertise in the Speech and Debate clause but i cannot imagine it will be interpreted to protect that stupid ass video Kelly did. the clause: "and for any Speech or Debate in either House, they shall not be questioned in any other Place."

from the Congressional Research Service:

Less than a decade after Johnson, the Supreme Court issued two decisions on the same day in 1972 that established important limitations on the types of actions that are protected by the Clause. In United States v. Brewster, which involved a Member's challenge to his indictment on a bribery charge, the Court reaffirmed Johnson and clarified that "a Member of Congress may be prosecuted under a criminal statute provided that the Government's case does not rely on legislative acts or the motivation for legislative acts."71 The Court made clear that the Clause does not prohibit inquiry into illegal conduct simply because it is "related" to the legislative process or has a "nexus to legislative functions," but rather, the Clause protects only the legislative acts themselves.72 By adhering to such a limitation, the Court reasoned that the result would be a Clause that was "broad enough to insure the historic independence of the Legislative Branch, essential to our separation of powers, but narrow enough to guard against the excesses of those who would corrupt the process by corrupting its Members."73

Brewster also drew an important distinction between legislative and political acts. The opinion labeled a wide array of constituent services,74 though "entirely legitimate," as "political in nature" rather than legislative.75 As a result, the Court suggested that "it has never been seriously contended that these political matters ... have the protection afforded by the Speech or Debate Clause."76

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5821142&forum_id=2,#49583816)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 12th, 2026 2:59 PM
Author: Fiercely-loyal lavender public bath

It would be a 1A violation to punish any member of the military for this same activity unless they did it in uniform. I don't think it matters that he's a senator

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5821142&forum_id=2,#49583826)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 12th, 2026 3:03 PM
Author: provocative hell

me:

https://www.meme-arsenal.com/memes/b0d685bd9276003f29a92af2fb233943.jpg

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5821142&forum_id=2,#49583836)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 12th, 2026 4:52 PM
Author: azure contagious factory reset button

Very cr

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5821142&forum_id=2,#49584077)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 12th, 2026 8:00 PM
Author: Chocolate shrine community account

Speech and Debate clause is for real pertinent discussions on the floor, like describing the gangbang you had with your ex-fiancé in detail (including photos)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5821142&forum_id=2,#49584718)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 12th, 2026 8:04 PM
Author: Fiercely-loyal lavender public bath

IIRC it's been held to protect members of Congress while they are coming and going from Congress, and so the zone of immunity extends at least as far as their homes in DC. It may be that he made the most offensive remarks while he was physically located either in Congress or in his DC residence. At the very least it shifts the burden to DOJ to explain why he doesn't have that protection here

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5821142&forum_id=2,#49584737)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 12th, 2026 8:18 PM
Author: provocative hell

aren't we talking about that professionally done video? how would that get S/D immunity?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5821142&forum_id=2,#49584784)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 12th, 2026 8:25 PM
Author: Fiercely-loyal lavender public bath

If a MOC is doing anything communicative within the halls of Congress they are supposed to be untouchable. The framers wrote more about this in Article I than they wrote in all of Article III IIRC, because they all expected to become members of this new Congress.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5821142&forum_id=2,#49584806)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 12th, 2026 8:42 PM
Author: provocative hell

was the vid done inside the Capitol building? seems like if so he could be immune.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5821142&forum_id=2,#49584832)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 12th, 2026 8:50 PM
Author: Fiercely-loyal lavender public bath

Oh yeah. As a baseline matter that falls under the exclusive jurisdiction of Capitol Police, a legislative branch authority that does not answer to DOJ. The FBI isn't supposed to have any authority to investigate that kind of thing. If the FBI is spying on Congress there needs to be a counterintelligence angle, if that would even fly. A good illustration was the Paul Pelosi home invasion where Capitol Police had everything on camera but would not share it with law enforcement.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5821142&forum_id=2,#49584846)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 12th, 2026 8:55 PM
Author: Fiercely-loyal lavender public bath

I should be more clear: S&D clause says they can't be questioned, i.e. interrogated, i.e. nothing they say is admissible, IIRC

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5821142&forum_id=2,#49584854)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 12th, 2026 8:56 PM
Author: provocative hell

AI:

Filming Location: While the precise spot isn't specified in the initial reports, it was filmed in Washington D.C., likely in a professional setting or public area like the Capitol grounds, to project a unified message from lawmakers.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5821142&forum_id=2,#49584858)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 12th, 2026 9:00 PM
Author: Fiercely-loyal lavender public bath

If you know you have the legal privilege available to you you'd be a fool not to use it. Maybe that's why these people only take questions from reporters when they're walking into out of their offices in Congress. Worst case scenario you got dat immunity

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5821142&forum_id=2,#49584869)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 12th, 2026 3:02 PM
Author: Primrose nursing home

Has a single poster ever taken one of your retarded “bets”?

Serious question.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5821142&forum_id=2,#49583833)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 12th, 2026 3:05 PM
Author: Fiercely-loyal lavender public bath

No, which is shocking since they cost nothing and I'm so stupid

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5821142&forum_id=2,#49583838)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 12th, 2026 11:10 PM
Author: Vivacious area

interesting lawsuit. i don't have any idea who will win though

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5821142&forum_id=2,#49585263)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 13th, 2026 12:08 AM
Author: Aromatic chartreuse meetinghouse volcanic crater

Some shithead district court judge will of course turbo grant him relief as usual

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5821142&forum_id=2,#49585391)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 13th, 2026 12:26 AM
Author: Fiercely-loyal lavender public bath

I think he may not have standing because no official action has been taken, only proposed. Still, no one is taking my bet

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5821142&forum_id=2,#49585414)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 13th, 2026 12:26 AM
Author: Fiercely-loyal lavender public bath

I'll take that bet

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5821142&forum_id=2,#49585415)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 13th, 2026 12:27 AM
Author: Fiercely-loyal lavender public bath

Hey cons look, I took my own bet. I think Kelly8 complaint will get tossed now. I think he lacks standing. You have no excuse for not also taking my bet now.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5821142&forum_id=2,#49585416)