Who believes that the US will do a Gulf War I or II style invasion of Iran
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Date: April 6th, 2026 12:48 PM
Author: Brussels Sprout: Brussels,Helsinki,Stockholm,Kyiv
American military victory is contingent upon strategy and critical mass: total war- blitzkrieg Barbarossa II and at least 30,000 division level boots on the ground for the D Day invasion
"We only have to kick in the door and the whole rotten structure will come crashing down"
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5854151&forum_id=2/#49797732) |
Date: April 6th, 2026 12:48 PM Author: gibberish (?)
I would have said 5% before last week. To be clear, I understand the motivation for the attacks even if I think it's a poor choice. I think the capture of the pilot and how poorly defended the interior is, along with evidence of fracturing within Iran will embolden the invade crowd. I hate to say it but Trump's temper and pride don't help. But the US is pretty good at the invasion part. I think they would decimate Iran in a week or so. This is consistent with similar engagements. It's the follow through that's hard. I'm not sure Trump cares though.
My take would be to rip the bandaid off. Go through with the ultimatum, but then immediately declare operations over and even fully lift sanctions. Let the IRGC begin rebuilding without the west to blame for the eventful problems. The Iranian government is poorly run and barely delivering basic life lines like water before the war. Let the IRGC prove they can do more than blame Israel. The country has been severely underperforming for decades. I'd also wager the world will quickly start adding pressure if Iran tries to hold onto the straight indefinitely. When Tehran is out of water and the IRGC is prioritizing missiles, then they have real problems.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5854151&forum_id=2/#49797741) |
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