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The Box: Kalshi and Polymarket are NOT predictive of the results.
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:03 PM Author: Emotionally + Physically Abusive Ex-Husband Hold firm, fellow Trumpmos, we got this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50227956) |
Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:11 PM Author: ferengi besides sensationalism, what's the benefit of linking to the markets instead of the results? we're just seeing the betting numbers follow who's winning in the count, only the ""odds"" make the leads seem way more dramatic and decisive. the first one i clicked was Graham losing 84K to 81K with 3% votes counted and the betting odds had already jumped from her winning to her losing like 65% to 35%. some retards might click that and think the 65% and 35% actually indicate something about the probability of the outcome. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50227996) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:12 PM Author: Emotionally + Physically Abusive Ex-Husband PWNing shitcons. The "benefit" is inherent to the task.
Edit: "some retards might click that and think the 65% and 35% actually indicate something about the probability of the outcome"
They LITERALLY do. There are people who know about the different precincts and what their composition is, etc. They study these things so that they can make money. They're HIGHLY predictive. |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:14 PM Author: Emotionally + Physically Abusive Ex-Husband tbtp see the edit ^^ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50228013) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:22 PM Author: ferengi ok fine that's the one thing it's better for, pwning shitcons, if it's the difference between losing 65/35 and losing by 3,000 votes lol. but then it opens us up to pwning if it swings back the other way as the next few thousands are counted.
no, it's nonsense. 65/35 D is just "D is winning" with a ton of noise. some people might be doing advanced regressions with the available information but i think it's safe to assume most people are just betting based on the count. and the MSM takes all the precincts and demographics into account when it calls the races, at which point the betting markets resolve, so... better just to go by the results. or maybe websites that take the partial info and project the results based on whatever algo they've come up with. but not the betting markets, which are downstream of all that. |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:34 PM Author: Emotionally + Physically Abusive Ex-Husband Awesome. Hopefully you or someone else will log all of the instances where PolyMarket and Kalshi were wrong, thus proving that you were right all along? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50228138) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:40 PM Author: ferengi nope don't care that much. but do you really want to commit to them being reliable measures of probability? because if your final answer is that it IS just sensationalism - more dramatic pwning of shitcons to link a fast-moving, volatile graph - and you don't actually think the prediction markets are magical probability machines, then i respect that. we love drama here. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50228173) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:40 PM Author: Emotionally + Physically Abusive Ex-Husband Yes, that's my final answer. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50228175) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:44 PM Author: ferengi which one? they are reliable measures of probability, or they're JUST fun to link for the drama? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50228205) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:46 PM Author: Emotionally + Physically Abusive Ex-Husband The first one, I didn't read all the way to the end (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50228212) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:48 PM Author: ferengi really dumb (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50228225) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:28 PM Author: Lucy Mercer (Safari) Not really dude. "People who know about the precincts" used to have professional full time careers doing that, and they were known as pollsters and were often wrong and didnt make that much money. This is about as correct as saying "there are people who know about different stocks and study these things so that they can make money" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50228109) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:13 PM Author: .,.,,..,,.,.,.:.,,;:.,.,..,.,..,,:.........:..,.:: Why dont you stick to showing people your butthole, einstein instead of sharing your retard level "thoughts" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50228003) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:13 PM Author: Lucy Mercer (Safari) "The house always wins" according to these morons (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50228007) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:13 PM Author: Historical American Nate Silver said the best use case for Polymarket is on election night to see which way things are going before the news reports it. So if ever there were a time, now is the time. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50228008) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:17 PM Author: Lucy Mercer (Safari) He is 100% right about that (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50228037) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:29 PM Author: ferengi what odd access to special knowledge do Polymarket users have that the news doesn't?
if the answer is just: they go on websites that take the partial info and project the results... then THOSE are what we should be linking. just not the markets, which are downstream of those things. |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:34 PM Author: Historical American They're gamblers who synthesize all available data into one piece of information: can I make money on this. They are highly motivated to seek truth and accuracy. I was wrong and the polls were right. I sold myself a story that turned out to not be true. It's over. We got blown out. It happens. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50228141) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:49 PM Author: ferengi lol. so their guesses matter because they're gamblers even though gamblers are often bad at it? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50228231) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:13 PM Author: ,.,.,.,.,,.,..,:,,:,,.,:,.,,.,:.,,.:.,:.,:.::,. I like the box but she was being shockingly retarded about this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50228006) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:15 PM Author: Emotionally + Physically Abusive Ex-Husband same, but I LOVE her (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50228015) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:17 PM Author: chandler (retired) This is the 14 year anniversary of the box going to Johnny’s saloon in Huntington Beach on my recommendation, a big moment in my life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50228042) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:15 PM Author: chandler (retired) Thank god I’m in Hawaii right now to avoid the rethuglican maga riots once they get smashed in the elections tonight (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50228023) |