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Counterfactuals and the Crowd

An unsettling fact about humanity – if you’ve wo...
plum center
  10/30/19
...
mind-boggling multi-billionaire
  10/30/19
Counterfactual reasoning is the tricknology we inherited fro...
exhilarant elite newt
  10/30/19
yes, by positing what-is-not we abuse and dominate the true ...
plum center
  10/30/19
...
mind-boggling multi-billionaire
  10/30/19
...
plum center
  10/30/19
...
plum center
  10/30/19
...
plum center
  10/31/19
...
mind-boggling multi-billionaire
  10/31/19
...
heady lodge crotch
  10/31/19
i always enjoy your writing, kyubimo
godawful theater roast beef
  10/31/19
ty
plum center
  10/31/19
...
Sticky orchestra pit
  10/31/19
...
plum center
  02/16/21
180
Bateful Yarmulke Patrolman
  04/19/21
Now how does inner monologue play into this I wonder?
diverse henna kitchen internal respiration
  04/19/21
the forms of counterfactual reasoning relevant to political ...
plum center
  04/19/21
ty, foxmo
diverse henna kitchen internal respiration
  04/19/21
...
Twisted tank indian lodge
  04/19/21
...
Twisted tank indian lodge
  04/19/21
180
Vivacious hot university persian
  11/04/21
...
spruce preventive strike corn cake
  08/24/22
...
claret fragrant locale trump supporter
  08/24/22
What the fuck are “left hand people”?
brindle titillating party of the first part sweet tailpipe
  08/24/22
people on the left hand of the bell curve like you, oooh
plum center
  08/26/22
...
Bateful Yarmulke Patrolman
  08/24/22
...
blue concupiscible market athletic conference
  08/24/22
this is an extremely good poast
Bateful Yarmulke Patrolman
  08/31/22
...
boyish crusty giraffe milk
  09/17/22


Poast new message in this thread



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Date: October 30th, 2019 12:17 PM
Author: plum center

An unsettling fact about humanity – if you’ve worked some of the jobs I have in the past – is the fact that the majority of persons cannot comprehend most counterfactual statements, and the more abstracted they are from their experience, the less likely they are to comprehend that the question has meaning at all.

It’s very easy to notice, even if you’ve managed to live the lives many xo users have of pervasive IQ-based social segregation is that many people from the left-hand think people from the right-hand are engaging in pure bullshit. At the most basic level, this defect is a failure of theory of mind.

A mistake that even smart children often make is to equate knowledge of any empirical facts with being smart. So a child can think it’s a huge coup over an adult that she knows where she hid something and they do not. This is in spite of the fact that the child is sophisticated enough to pass the basic theory of mind test, where Person A places an object in a room, and Person B hides it in another space, and they are suprised if Person A immediately looks for the object in the new location they should be unaware of. This is because understanding that the engine of reasoning power is the essence of intelligence rather than the objects it runs on (and can generate) is another level of abstraction in the theory of mind altogether.

Left-hand adults, however, can make the same mistake as the child, and often think intelligent people are hopelessly stupid for not knowing facts that they might have no reasonable access to. Another level is failing to understand that certain facts might not be relevant or useful to the other person, or likely to have been casually encountered. Beyond this is being able to understand how lacking certain facts might be indicators of intelligence (given certain conditions) and competence while others may not be— yet note how each level of intelligence-assessment sophistication relies on more layers of counterfactual reasoning.

Once you understand this necessity of counterfactual reasoning in so many important tasks, and the fact that the capacity for this is not evenly distributed, other traits associated with IQ begin to make sense, such as time-preference, morality, and curiosity; the first two have been explored before, but the underpinnings of curiosity in particular less-so, so to address this briefly:

The most basic form of curiosity is investigating the alien object in your immediate environment. Even relatively unintelligent animals engage in this behavior, and it may be wholly instinctual. However, it can also be abstracted (and likely often is for the right-handers) in the following way: “What will I be like if I know this object/its origins?” Of course, there are levels of counterfactual reasoning that can occur after the more instinctual noticing/observation of the alien, but the question is what sort of thing lies at the basis of the more sophisticated forms of curiosity.

Intellectual curiosity, in particular, requires the capacity to imagine what it would be like to know something one doesn’t know, and at the more philosophical level it involves some capacity to imagine what it would be like to be the person who has engaged in speculation about this unknown and decide whether or not this is pleasurable, valuable, etc. Chiding the left-hander for his failure to be curious about things is fruitless; he might fail at the basic level of even being able to imagine that knowing something else is possible, much less be able to appreciate the fact that there might be something to know. (I can’t even blame Ta-Nehisi Coates so much for being a normie who is put forth as a public intellectual despite not even knowing St. Augustine existed – and not being sophisticated enough to be embarrassed by this fact – so much as I am by the negrophiliacs who put him in the situation in the first place.)

My experience trying to work with poors and so forth is that counterfactuals should always be as grounded in the everyday as possible, and avoided entirely when possible. If I were to advise anyone here about budgeting, my instruction would largely consist of if/then statements and generalized rules. Working in social work, I found that such advice wasn’t just generally useless, it was often dangerous; it was far better to just instruct clients on actions with no openings for the exercise of judgment. Trying to get the client to envision a counterfactual such as an emergency or repair expense was often impossible, and generally only worked if I could at least be certain they had experienced the particular problem before (note: every prole woman has smashed her phone).

But still: the conversation of the right-hand largely exists in the realm of possible worlds. The right-hander might even attribute to these an ontic status (ljl David Lewis ljl), but only world (and maybe its near-twins) ever exists for the normie. The gap is bigger than you imagine, and charity demands you recognize this.

I’ve talked elsewhere on Are Great Bort about the problems social structures relying on excessive abstraction produce for the mass of humanity. I even believe they are bad for the intelligent, as abstraction is effortful and easily short-cutted (low energy boomers are generally idiots for this reason). But it is frightening in particular to realize that counterfactual reasoning is the essence of political decision-making, and we freely admit everyone to this process without any sense of what we’re actually doing thereby.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4372898&forum_id=2#39047238)



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Date: October 30th, 2019 12:30 PM
Author: mind-boggling multi-billionaire



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4372898&forum_id=2#39047318)



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Date: October 30th, 2019 12:44 PM
Author: exhilarant elite newt

Counterfactual reasoning is the tricknology we inherited from our father Yakub

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4372898&forum_id=2#39047420)



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Date: October 30th, 2019 12:51 PM
Author: plum center

yes, by positing what-is-not we abuse and dominate the true inhabitants of this world

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4372898&forum_id=2#39047461)



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Date: October 30th, 2019 1:05 PM
Author: mind-boggling multi-billionaire



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4372898&forum_id=2#39047536)



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Date: October 30th, 2019 2:17 PM
Author: plum center



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4372898&forum_id=2#39047968)



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Date: October 30th, 2019 9:21 PM
Author: plum center



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4372898&forum_id=2#39050027)



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Date: October 31st, 2019 9:42 AM
Author: plum center



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4372898&forum_id=2#39051835)



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Date: October 31st, 2019 2:55 PM
Author: mind-boggling multi-billionaire



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4372898&forum_id=2#39053540)



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Date: October 31st, 2019 2:56 PM
Author: heady lodge crotch



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4372898&forum_id=2#39053547)



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Date: October 31st, 2019 2:57 PM
Author: godawful theater roast beef

i always enjoy your writing, kyubimo

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4372898&forum_id=2#39053556)



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Date: October 31st, 2019 9:36 PM
Author: plum center

ty

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4372898&forum_id=2#39055279)



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Date: October 31st, 2019 2:58 PM
Author: Sticky orchestra pit



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4372898&forum_id=2#39053567)



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Date: February 16th, 2021 10:33 AM
Author: plum center



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4372898&forum_id=2#41954001)



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Date: April 19th, 2021 1:13 PM
Author: Bateful Yarmulke Patrolman

180

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4372898&forum_id=2#42307736)



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Date: April 19th, 2021 1:22 PM
Author: diverse henna kitchen internal respiration

Now how does inner monologue play into this I wonder?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4372898&forum_id=2#42307793)



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Date: April 19th, 2021 1:46 PM
Author: plum center

the forms of counterfactual reasoning relevant to political participation probably require the ability to sustain an internal monologue

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4372898&forum_id=2#42307976)



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Date: April 19th, 2021 2:21 PM
Author: diverse henna kitchen internal respiration

ty, foxmo

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4372898&forum_id=2#42308283)



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Date: April 19th, 2021 3:28 PM
Author: Twisted tank indian lodge



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4372898&forum_id=2#42308771)



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Date: April 19th, 2021 1:32 PM
Author: Twisted tank indian lodge



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4372898&forum_id=2#42307868)



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Date: November 4th, 2021 4:57 PM
Author: Vivacious hot university persian

180

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4372898&forum_id=2#43387559)



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Date: August 24th, 2022 9:13 PM
Author: spruce preventive strike corn cake



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4372898&forum_id=2#45065770)



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Date: August 24th, 2022 9:18 PM
Author: claret fragrant locale trump supporter



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4372898&forum_id=2#45065806)



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Date: August 24th, 2022 9:45 PM
Author: brindle titillating party of the first part sweet tailpipe

What the fuck are “left hand people”?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4372898&forum_id=2#45065905)



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Date: August 26th, 2022 12:14 AM
Author: plum center

people on the left hand of the bell curve

like you, oooh

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4372898&forum_id=2#45072671)



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Date: August 24th, 2022 9:48 PM
Author: Bateful Yarmulke Patrolman



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4372898&forum_id=2#45065914)



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Date: August 24th, 2022 10:57 PM
Author: blue concupiscible market athletic conference



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4372898&forum_id=2#45066254)



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Date: August 31st, 2022 11:10 PM
Author: Bateful Yarmulke Patrolman

this is an extremely good poast

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4372898&forum_id=2#45102083)



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Date: September 17th, 2022 10:40 PM
Author: boyish crusty giraffe milk



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4372898&forum_id=2#45188683)