"Serial" -- do libs really think Adnan is innocent?
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Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 14th, 2014 1:48 PM Author: irate orchid psychic
I heard in the latest episode that they're bringing an ineffective assistance claim for Adnan, just lol. His lawyer may have been a screeching harpy but she was probably better than 90% of the attorneys doing murder defense trials.
The host finally started to seem skeptical of Adnan until the "Innocence Project" crusader lady came on and blew smoke up her ass.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2756186&forum_id=2#26928346) |
Date: December 14th, 2014 1:50 PM Author: Bronze place of business gaming laptop
shitlibs often confuse legal concepts with factual concepts. they confuse whether adnan actually did it with whether adnan was guility beyond a reasonable doubt. it's just how they confuse the fact that zimmerhero killed baby tray with the legal concept that zimmerhero isnt guilty of murder.
the IAC claim is just based on a plea. which is retarded.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2756186&forum_id=2#26928356) |
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Date: December 14th, 2014 3:11 PM Author: Fiercely-loyal Bearded Volcanic Crater
"I'm guessing that 100% of people with IQs of 115 or over would have voted to acquit"
Let's amend this to people with IQs of between 110-120 - as we like to call them on xoxo "redditors."
If you're either smarter or dumber than this, you'll realize that voting to acquit Adnan is based on your own over analysis.
The facts of the case that matter are much, much simpler than presented in Serial. There's an eye witness who ties Adnan to the murder, and that eye witness had special knowledge of the murder. There's also cell phone records tying Adnan to the place the body was buried during the time it was buried.
That's it. That's way more than you need to show that beyond a reasonable doubt Adnan was involved in the murder.
Beyond a reasonable doubt does not mean that everything Jay said is correct, or that beyond a reasonable doubt the state's timeline and motive are correct.
It's just whether or not Adnan killed her. We know beyond a reasonable doubt he did because there are no other alternatives that are reasonable.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2756186&forum_id=2#26928803) |
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Date: December 14th, 2014 3:16 PM Author: Naked Razzle Hell
"We know beyond a reasonable doubt he did because there are no other alternatives that are reasonable."
I don't think it works that way bro: the prosecution's story doesn't make sense because of X, Y, and Z, but I can't think of another killer, so fuck it, let's convict.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2756186&forum_id=2#26928832)
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Date: December 14th, 2014 3:20 PM Author: Fiercely-loyal Bearded Volcanic Crater
Of course it does. We have an eye witness with special knowledge of the murder saying Adnan did it.
The only alternatives are that (a) Jay is framing Adnan - which to me doesn't constitute a reasonable doubt given how ridiculous it would be, or (b) Adnan was in on the murder in a lesser role, in which case I don't have a problem charging him with murder if he was in fact only an accessory to murder who won't testify which actually happened.
Like what is your reasonable doubt here? That Jay is a genius gambling murderer?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2756186&forum_id=2#26928850) |
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Date: December 14th, 2014 3:35 PM Author: Fiercely-loyal Bearded Volcanic Crater
The point is you are all trying to make this case much more complicated than it is. The state doesn't have to prove that Adnan killed Hae at 5:37 pm in the Best Buy parking lot. They just have to prove that he did it.
Now I think we can all agree that:
(1) Jay has special knowledge of the murder due to his finding of the car.
(2) Adnan's cell phone places the cell phone at the site of where Hae was buried.
(3) Jay has implicated Adnan as the murderer.
Given that we all accept 1-3, it becomes a binary question. Was Adnan heavily involved in the murder, of is Jay just trying to frame him?
To me, the idea that Jay is trying to frame him is preposterous. As soon as Jay goes to the police, he is their #2 suspect. That means if someone did take roll and Adnan was at track practice, if he was with someone else going to a movie, if he had any way of proving where he was - Jay is getting the death penalty. Jay is also going to fry if he fucked up and left any physical evidence at the murder scene, or if Adnan can prove that Jay alone had his cell phone and car. That's ridiculous.
So if that is ridiculous, and there are no other scenarios that are consistent with 1-3, then you've proved it beyond a reasonable doubt.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2756186&forum_id=2#26928902) |
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Date: December 14th, 2014 4:05 PM Author: Fiercely-loyal Bearded Volcanic Crater
What I don't think you seem to be grasping is that while there are an infinite number of possibilities, many of them are so unlikely they aren't worth mention.
Draw yourself a probability tree and assume that beyond a reasonable doubt = 95% confidence.
So in my opinion we would have something like:
(a) Jay is telling more or less a fuzzy version of the truth = 60%
(b) Jay is hiding many facts and deliberately lying to protect himself or Jen, but Adnan was still heavily involved 38.5%
(c) Jay committed the murder on his own and framed Adnan after the fact = 0.5%
(d) Jay committed the murder with the deliberate intention of framing Adnan 0.5%
(e) Something else crazy happened - from the implanting memories into Jay's head to Jay being a manchurian candidate sent to destroy Adnan who was to be our savior = .5% chance cumulatively
So if you see above, I showed my work. I would love for this people who say "you can't possibly say he did it beyond a reasonable doubt!" to show their work. Because if you're assigning a 50% chance that Jay is framing Adnan, you're the one who is not being honest.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2756186&forum_id=2#26929032) |
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Date: December 14th, 2014 4:22 PM Author: Naked Razzle Hell
I agree that you can completely rule out (d) and (e) based on evidence presented. I also agree that it is not the prosecution's job to affirmatively rule out alternative theories.
My point is much more simple: we are nearly 100% certain that the crime did not occur the way that the prosecution attempted to prove that it did, and the way that the only witness (who has a motive to throw someone else under the bus) testified that it did. You can try to minimize this if you want, but really, the only points of Jay's story that we can believe beyond a reasonable doubt are:
(1) He was somehow involved in burying the body.
(2) He was somehow involved in ditching the car.
If your response is that there are serious doubts about an alternative story, I will once again respond with that's not supposed to be defbro's problem.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2756186&forum_id=2#26929099)
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Date: December 14th, 2014 5:00 PM Author: Fiercely-loyal Bearded Volcanic Crater
The burden of proof is the burden of proof. Quit thinking like a law school gunner and start thinking logically.
If the evidence presented shows there is less than a 5% chance the murder was perpetrated without the efforts of Adnan, you've met the burden.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2756186&forum_id=2#26929306)
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Date: December 14th, 2014 3:46 PM Author: Fiercely-loyal Bearded Volcanic Crater
The holes aren't significant in a way that suggest Adnan had no involvement.
Perhaps Jay is hiding the fact that Jenn was also involved. Perhaps he is trying to minimize his own involvement.
But nothing in the inconsistencies in his testimony to me suggests that he is either (a) trying to frame Adnan or (b) had nothing to do with the murder.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2756186&forum_id=2#26928959) |
Date: December 14th, 2014 1:53 PM Author: Concupiscible smoky alpha
the Innocence project lady seemed like a real fucking weirdo. wouldn't surprise me that much if the people running it are like her.
Actual paraphrased quote from her: "His motive was her breaking up with him? That makes no sense! People get dumped all the time and don't murder."
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2756186&forum_id=2#26928368) |
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Date: December 14th, 2014 2:48 PM Author: Concupiscible smoky alpha
couldn't find the thing about the voicemail but I distinctly remember Sarah Koenig confronting Adnan about that
http://lawprofessors.typepad.com/evidenceprof/2014/12/ive-done-nine-posts-herehereherehereherehereherehere-andhere-about-sarah-koenigsserial-podcast-which-deals-withthe.html
Adnan had two trials. The first trial ended in a mistrial after a juror overheard the judge referring to defense counsel as a liar. But, before that mistrial was declared, Nisha testified at the first trial, and this is what she said when asked about the call where she talked to Jay:
Ummm, it’s a little hard to recall, but I remember [Adnan] telling me that Jay invite- invited him over to a video store that he worked at. And, he basically well Adnan walked in with his cell phone and then like- he told me to speak with Jay and I was like ‘okay’ cause Jay wanted to say hi so I said hi to Jay. And that’s all I can really recall.
And then, when asked about what time of day that call occurred, Nisha responded, "I would think towards the evening, but I can’t be exactly sure."
As Sarah Koenig notes in the sixth episode, there are two problems with this testimony, one obvious and one less obvious. The obvious problem is that Nisha thinks the call was "towards the evening" when the call on January 13th was actually at 3:32 P.M. That's not a huge deal because Nisha herself says she's not sure about the timing of the call, and you can even legitimately construe a 3:32 P.M. call as being "towards the evening."
The bigger, less obvious, problem is that Hae's murder was on January 13th and that Jay didn't take the job at the video store until the end of January. Moreover, Jay mostly worked nights at the video store. This would tend to corroborate Nisha's testimony but place the Adnan/Jay/Nisha call weeks after Hae's murder.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2756186&forum_id=2#26928667)
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Date: December 14th, 2014 3:15 PM Author: Fiercely-loyal Bearded Volcanic Crater
(1) He knew where the car was ditched (this is obviously the biggest thing as it shows he had special knowledge)
(2) Phone records and locations
(3) They went to that girls house together
(4) The fact that he basically was turning himself in to be an accessory to murder and providing the cops with enough evidence to lock him up for life if he slipped up.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2756186&forum_id=2#26928826) |
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Date: December 14th, 2014 5:08 PM Author: Fiercely-loyal Bearded Volcanic Crater
"one doesnt have to be a muslim-sympathizing shitlib to have questions about whether there was reasonable doubt"
My point in this thread is to point out that if you do have reasonable doubt, you should have a reasonable alternative theory - which is something no one is ever able to present.
This isn't a case where we found the ex-boyfriends footprint in the blood spatter and the entire case is based on that. There's an eye witness claiming there was the burial of a body and a confession.
The fact that an alternative theory was never presented at trial is extremely telling. As if the fact that Adnan didn't take the stand.
While you can't hold it against him that he didn't testify, you can hold it against him that his friend was like "we buried the body together and hung out all day", a cell phone record linked him to the park where the body was buried, and the only thing Adnan and his lawyer had to say about it was "so you said you were at McDonalds at noon but really you were there at 3:00 pm! and isn't it true that the state gave you the business card of a lawyer!"
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2756186&forum_id=2#26929345) |
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Date: December 14th, 2014 5:11 PM Author: Naked Razzle Hell
This is our disagreement:
"My point in this thread is to point out that if you do have reasonable doubt, you should have a reasonable alternative theory - which is something no one is ever able to present."
I, and apparently everyone else ITT, think it's enough to say that there is reasonable doubt about the defendant on trial. Full stop.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2756186&forum_id=2#26929361) |
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Date: December 14th, 2014 5:19 PM Author: Fiercely-loyal Bearded Volcanic Crater
an eye witness confession by someone with special knowledge of the crime which is corroborated by showing the defendant's cell phone (which he never said was missing) was at the site of the burial is more than enough to prove it beyond a reasonable doubt for me.
at that point, the defendant or his defenders need to show me why the above is false.
do me a favor, show me what your probability tree is. what percentage chance do you think there is for each scenario you think is plausible?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2756186&forum_id=2#26929390) |
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Date: December 14th, 2014 5:49 PM Author: Fiercely-loyal Bearded Volcanic Crater
No. This is wrong. It's whether or not they prove beyond a reasonable doubt the defendant committed the crime - not whether or not scenario X happened.
Consider this scenario:
A and B are locked in a room together. Three days later, the door is opened and B is dead with A's knife in his back.
The prosecutor's show at trial that A's fingerprints are the only ones on the knife and it was impossible for anyone else to go in the room. They show at trial that A was mad at B for sleeping with A's wife. They have an expert testify that the body shows B was likely killed in the first two hours the door was closed.
B's defense attorney gets up and says that it is unlikely A killed B for sleeping with his wife because they were in an open relationship and A actually encouraged his wife to sleep with B. In addition, their expert witness testifies that the state's witness is using bad science, and that B was killed on the third day.
---Extrapolating your statement, you're saying that since there is reasonable doubt as to whether or not Scenario X happened, you must acquit A.
I'm saying it doesn't matter whether or not Scenario X happened, just that given the evidence there are no other alternatives other than A killing B that would cast reasonable doubt on finding A guilty.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2756186&forum_id=2#26929571) |
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Date: December 14th, 2014 5:59 PM Author: Naked Razzle Hell
This is my last response ITT. You're right. I was being loose with "Scenario X" language.
This is more like the following: A, B, and C are "locked" in a gigantic mall together. Even though they are "locked" in, there is a door through which anyone else in the world can come and go. After 3 days, A is found strangled to death. There is no physical evidence linking either B or C to A's strangling. C testifies that B hated and killed A, and that C helped move the body. Other people testify that B did not in fact hate A. C lies repeatedly in telling his story. Police can only corroborate that C moved the body.
Clearly, at some point the burden goes to the defendant to show that he is innocent despite the fact that he is found with the murder weapon next to the victim's body. I don't think Jay's story gets you there.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2756186&forum_id=2#26929628) |
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Date: December 14th, 2014 5:06 PM Author: Naked Razzle Hell
Are you asking us (1) WHY the jury got it wrong, or (2) WHAT SPECIFICALLY gives me reasonable doubt?
If (1) I have no idea, but I suspect an inability to process information similar to what you have displayed in this thread.
If (2) I suspect you are really asking me to prove why Adnan is innocent. But that is not my, or anyone else's, point ITT. What specifically gives me reasonable doubt is that the prosecution depends 100% on a not credible witness. The only things that can be corroborated go to Jay's own involvement. His claims about Adnan's involvement are not independently corroborated. The only thing that comes close is the call to Nisha, but she doesn't even remember the call.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2756186&forum_id=2#26929333) |
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Date: December 14th, 2014 5:29 PM Author: Fiercely-loyal Bearded Volcanic Crater
just loan your car and your brand new first cell phone to someone you call "more of an acquaintance" but forget to tell the cops about it until they present you with the phone evidence
also, don't call your ex-gf once she goes missing even though you previously talked to her all the time and were carpooling with her the day she went missing
also, say you have "no one to blame but yourself," even though your story is that your friend murdered your first love and framed you for murder
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2756186&forum_id=2#26929440) |
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Date: December 14th, 2014 5:32 PM Author: hairraiser liquid oxygen
OK
1) Jay killed her
2) Do you post onTLS?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2756186&forum_id=2#26929473) |
Date: December 15th, 2014 7:14 PM Author: irate orchid psychic
Just finished episode 11. JFC Koenig is naive as shit and really stretching to defend Adnan. She's not asking the hardest question, which is why on earth Jay would fabricate the story and, if he did, why the fuck he'd have any reason to kill Hae. It's completely obvious that if Adnan had nothing to do with Hae's murder, then Jay is almost certainly guilty. Yet Koenig avoids this obvious point, and frankly so does Adnan -- the whole "I'm not angry at him because I'm at peace" attitude makes no sense when you know that Jay lying means Jay is likely the fucking murderer. Instead, Koenig is content to poke small holes in witness memory etc, but they're mostly beside the point.
Side note, I don't get the 0Ls/1Ls ITT who seem to think that reasonable doubt exists if the prosecution's overarching narrative doesn't add up. So fucking what? Prosecutors take the strongest facts they can -- which in this case pointed to Adnan being the most likely killer -- and try to tell the story as best they can. It might not always be the right story of how things went down, but that doesn't really matter.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2756186&forum_id=2#26937317) |
Date: December 15th, 2014 7:17 PM Author: laughsome chartreuse laser beams cruise ship
"not right now lib babe im trying to explicate an argument in favor of either a piece of shit muslim immigrant or a relatively small time african-american thug"
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2756186&forum_id=2#26937329)
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