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Virusfraudmos: 55,000 dead in the US today. Imagine if we didn't social distance
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Date: April 26th, 2020 12:40 PM Author: jade arousing feces (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40096640) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 2:27 PM Author: bateful ebony liquid oxygen sandwich We'd have 56,000 dead and 26 million more jobs. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40097297) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 2:28 PM Author: jade arousing feces (legit retard) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40097304) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 2:34 PM Author: milky seedy heaven study showing lockdowns have no demonstrated effect on reducing deaths:
https://twitter.com/lymanstoneky/status/1252795142026608640 |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 4:12 PM Author: Sinister Cerebral Range Main People (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40097863) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 2:32 PM Author: milky seedy heaven (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40097327) |
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Date: April 28th, 2020 2:50 AM Author: yellow legal warrant orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40107567) |
Date: April 26th, 2020 12:41 PM Author: very tactful hairraiser native You get the same amount of people will be exposed with or without social distancing? Staying away from people isn't some cure. You understand this, right? Flat curve is about ICU capacity. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40096656) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 12:51 PM Author: puce unhinged station mad-dog skullcap What would ICU capacity look like with no social distancing? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40096714) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 12:52 PM Author: Iridescent passionate garrison Exactly the same (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40096718) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 12:52 PM Author: Tantric aquamarine death wish stop replying to Obeezy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40096719) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 12:53 PM Author: puce unhinged station mad-dog skullcap Is that right? Doesnt sound intuitively correct to me but I'm not an epidemiologist or anything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40096727) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 1:27 PM Author: milky seedy heaven well consider that 20% of NYC apparently got infected before social distancing, with the virus circulating for at least a month and a half.
that's the worst case scenario, and ICUs didn't go over capacity. |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 1:34 PM Author: puce unhinged station mad-dog skullcap I dont think thats worst case scenario and I dont think the situation in hospitals in NYC is at all ideal.....have you read up on it at all? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40096967) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 1:39 PM Author: milky seedy heaven i've read up on it a lot.
a virus running unchecked to 20% infection rate is a pretty fucking bad scenario. by that point, the R0 starts declining substantially because of the high prevalence rate in the population. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1252680119489003521
the situation in NYC hospitals isn't ideal but they've had problems for years. NYC has had one of the lowest beds per population ratios in the country for years. but do you dispute that they did not go officially over hospital capacity? |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 1:40 PM Author: puce unhinged station mad-dog skullcap Nope. And I'm very glad for that fact. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40097021) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 1:45 PM Author: milky seedy heaven by the point you get to those sorts of prevalence rates, new infections start declining in and of themselves, because so many people already have it. Non-lockdown measures including masks (plus banning massive crowds and venues such as bars and stadiums) would've probably been enough to keep the curve flat enough at that point. instead NY has gone beyond almost any other state in the US to shut down manufacturing & construction in addition to retail, and today Cuomo stated that this severe lockdown will last downstate much much later than may 15. they are going way too far in an empty gesture to try to compensate for letting people continue getting onto packed subways for a month after the virus appeared in NYC. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40097042) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 1:52 PM Author: irradiated organic girlfriend it came pretty close in nyc though. it is hard to know how much impact social distancing but it's plausible we would have overrun if it wasn't undertaken.
i agree though that the goal posts have been moved from avoiding overwhelming hospitals to ??? (quarantine forever?). |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 1:53 PM Author: milky seedy heaven i'm OK with moderate social distancing. but cuomo has imposed a draconian lockdown that has idled large sectors of the economy, including businesses in the manufacturing and construction spheres that are considered essential in the CDC guidelines.
all with no evidence that these measures would save any lives at all. |
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Date: April 27th, 2020 2:34 PM Author: Aphrodisiac beta volcanic crater It did not. The javits center and comfort were not even really used. Also, it’s not monolithic oops we are at capacity, you stack more people in, set up new temp hospitals etc. And worst case you start pulling octogenarians and other people off vents who you know are going to die anyway. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40103549) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 1:46 PM Author: very tactful hairraiser native I can say with certainty it would not be a situation that would warrant spending $8 trillion dollars. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40097048) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 1:50 PM Author: Ruddy provocative depressive I don't think the deficit will exceed $5-6 trillion in 2020. If it ends up saving hundreds of thousands of lives, I think most people agree with the quarantine. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40097079) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 1:52 PM Author: milky seedy heaven it won't end up saving hundreds of thousands of lives
and you have to count the trillions in personal wealth that are being wiped out too, not just the government's losses. |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: Ruddy provocative depressive If we assume the NY state data is right and the mortality rate approaches 1%, then hundreds of thousands is a reasonable estimate for the number of people saved. It could even be 1 million. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40097106) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 1:59 PM Author: milky seedy heaven a) without a real endgame, the lockdown is not saving the lives of people at risk of infection, it's just delaying their infection somewhat. there is no real endgame to get from hundreds of thousands of active cases to zero. Birx said today it would take a technological breakthrough to get testing to the scale necessary for test and trace. and that's setting aside the fact that we'd need to hire hundreds of thousands of people for a new contact-tracing bureaucracy (at least that's what virusbadmos on Twitter like Noah Smith and Trevor Bedford tell me).
b) it takes a lot of unreasonable assumptions to conclude that all other studies on IFR showing a rate of 0.2%-0.4% are wrong and that the NYC IFR will apply everywhere else, as well as to massage the NYC IFR up to 1%
c) $8 trillion in wealth evaporating in the US, as well as not vaccinating 117 million children worldwide, and not sending kids to schools, and delaying elective medical procedures by months, will have ramifications that will lead to many many dead. and that needs to be balanced against whatever lives might potentially be saved, especially considering that the young people is hitting young people the hardest, while the majority of COVID-19 deaths have multiple underlying conditions and 75% have two or more underlying conditions. |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 2:02 PM Author: very tactful hairraiser native (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40097153) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 2:21 PM Author: Ruddy provocative depressive a) why not just re-purpose the census workers?
b) the other studies of low prevalence populations have issues with false positives
c) a $5-6 trillion deficit in 2020 is huge but it's an emergency and a one time deal. interest rates are low. there are lots of ramifications to a quarantine including other ways that lives are saved from reduced car accidents to heart attacks. |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 2:31 PM Author: milky seedy heaven a) maybe because we still need to perform the census in order to avoid violating the constitution? and we somehow need to take people that had to be trained for months to knock on doors and count people and transform them into contact-tracing detectives in a matter of weeks?
b) you keep ignoring that two of the studies are not in low prevalence populations--Gangelt in Germany (15% prevalence) and Chelsea in Massachusetts (32% prevalence). the miami study's prevalence (6%) was high enough relative to false positive rates (~0.5%-2.5%) that the mortality rate could be no higher than 0.27%.
c) it's not just the deficit, people are going bankrupt and losing their livelihoods over this and their businesses are being ruined. the projected unemployment rate for 2021 is 9%. It took six years to recover all the jobs lost in the last recession. |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 2:37 PM Author: Ruddy provocative depressive a) I meant it more as an example hundreds of thousands could be hired on a temporary basis. I'm sure not everyone has to be a technical expert.
b) What are the details of those 2 studies?
c) I think a hasty return to business will be accompanied by a spike in cases with negative effects on the consumer economy. Easing the lock down isn't going to make the economic effects go away. The best approach would have been a decisive lockdown for 6 weeks that got rid of the virus and left the borders closed afterwards. But Fox News morons and red state governors got in the way of that ever succeeding. |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 2:45 PM Author: milky seedy heaven a) you realize it takes the census bureau 10 years to prepare to mobilize hundreds of thousands of temporary employees? and they start hiring and training more than 6 months before the actual census?
b) you can look them up yourself, but additionally i remembered that the miami study, which was a true randomized sample, had a prevalence of 6% and IFR of 0.15%. Assuming that the false positive rate is 2.5% (the upper bound given by objectors to the Santa Clara study such as Trevor Bedford), that still results in an IFR of 0.26% at most. again, look that study up yourself.
c) easing the lockdown to allow all manufacturing and construction to resume would absolutely make some of the economic effects go away. there is no reason for these businesses to be closed. we made the lockdown much more severe than it needed to be. and if a more decisive lockdown had been feasible in a country with a bill of rights like the USA, morons like Cuomo and Murphy would've done it. They literally blew their wad in those states and cases only started going down once prevalences started going over 20% in the NYC metro region, as herd immunity models would suggest. |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 2:46 PM Author: Ruddy provocative depressive Hold on. You haven't looked up those studies you are citing to contradict my point about a high mortality rate? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40097425) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 2:50 PM Author: milky seedy heaven i've looked them up, i'm not about to spend 10 minutes getting links for you, etc to find them when you can do that yourself (and you've proven too be spaceporn) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40097459) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 2:52 PM Author: Ruddy provocative depressive This is discussion isn't going anywhere because you are just mindlessly trying to contradict. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40097466) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 1:51 PM Author: puce unhinged station mad-dog skullcap That's a value judgment and depends what's on the other side of the ledger of that 8 trillion.
It's nice to see cons start worrying about the deficit again though. This worry was noticeably absent during the last 3 years. |
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Date: April 27th, 2020 4:34 PM Author: very tactful hairraiser native We do this value judgement all the time based on life mid sentence wondering why the fuck I'm bothering typing any further (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40104303) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 12:53 PM Author: Turquoise shrine To answer your question: No, he does not understand that. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40096725) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 1:15 PM Author: jade arousing feces (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40096851) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 1:16 PM Author: Razzle-dazzle Indigo Site Tattoo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40096859) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 12:43 PM Author: Chest-beating voyeur pervert Give your estimate for total fraudvirus deaths in the US by January 2022. Then give your estimate for the same timeframe but with zero lockdowns or social distancing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40096666) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 1:27 PM Author: jade arousing feces Without lockdowns 1.5-2.2 million.
Assuming lock downs are lifted in most places in the US by June when the infections are dropping specifically in that geography, maybe 150,000. |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 2:13 PM Author: Black Supple Address Lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40097218) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 2:15 PM Author: milky seedy heaven (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40097225) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 4:29 PM Author: Bipolar Abode (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40097930) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 6:14 PM Author: mind-boggling menage hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40098494) |
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Date: April 27th, 2020 11:38 AM Author: Cracking State (Rudolph) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40102468) |
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Date: April 27th, 2020 2:47 PM Author: hideous impressive office lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40103623) |
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Date: April 28th, 2020 4:03 AM Author: Violet institution toilet seat It can't possibly be true, but this feels like the most retarded thing I've ever seen poasted on this board. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40107639) |
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Date: April 28th, 2020 9:27 AM Author: hideous impressive office It certainly isn't getting the attention it deserves for sheer retardedness (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40108173) |
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Date: April 28th, 2020 4:07 AM Author: yellow legal warrant orchestra pit Looooool (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40107641) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 12:45 PM Author: Sinister Cerebral Range Main People OMG 55000? This must be like Christmas for you. Which big city morgue are you going to hit up first? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40096675) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 1:16 PM Author: Sooty pozpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40096855) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 1:17 PM Author: Razzle-dazzle Indigo Site Tattoo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40096863) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 1:24 PM Author: jade arousing feces (AZN) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40096920) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 7:32 PM Author: Sinister Cerebral Range Main People (corpsefucking stolen valor tough guy) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40098962) |
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Date: April 27th, 2020 11:27 AM Author: Sinister Cerebral Range Main People (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40102393) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 12:45 PM Author: Tantric aquamarine death wish https://mobile.twitter.com/Balt_Attorney/status/1253711685627543559/photo/1 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40096678) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 4:31 PM Author: Rusted Sanctuary real numbers? NYT was showing a graph of total deaths leaping upward. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40097937) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 12:47 PM Author: Talented church building Well since libs have been saying the lockdowns in the US have been pathetic and since a bunch of states never even went into lockdown the numbers would maybe be 25% worse at this point. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40096688) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 12:52 PM Author: puce unhinged station mad-dog skullcap I think every state issued some kind of order or directive for this.
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Date: April 26th, 2020 1:47 PM Author: milky seedy heaven there's a difference between banning massive gatherings for 45 days one the one hand, and telling ladder manufacturers that they can't open their factories for at least 2 and a half months, on the other. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40097054) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 1:58 PM Author: puce unhinged station mad-dog skullcap Sure but even in places where it isnt binding a lot of people followed it.
This is why I find issue with the "but sweden" argument. We are not swedes, and they are social distancing a lot it's just not on lockdown.
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Date: April 26th, 2020 2:00 PM Author: milky seedy heaven sure, but this gives no evidence that NY-style lockdowns are working, are good, and should be continued. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40097138) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 2:01 PM Author: puce unhinged station mad-dog skullcap Just responding to the point walrus made, which I find unconvincing at best (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40097142) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 1:58 PM Author: gold cheese-eating roommate "some kind of order" != lockdown or quarantine.
i've been free to do my things since day 1, and i would ignore an order to the contrary anyway. |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 1:39 PM Author: Rebellious Grizzly Kitty Foreskin This just proves the lockdowns are working and the original Imperial College study was right all along (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40097015) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 1:40 PM Author: Cowardly Territorial Ratface Stag Film Lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40097017) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 2:28 PM Author: dashing light meetinghouse digit ratio This is just getting lazy now, it doesn't feel like your heart is in being a virusbadmo anymore (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40097302) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 2:36 PM Author: topaz floppy spot we would have more dead fat geriatrics TODAY, substantially the same number of dead from COVID-19 in the medium run, and fewer dead in a multiyear horizon thanks to not adding the terrible health effects of a crippled economy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40097363) |
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Date: April 27th, 2020 2:27 PM Author: Orange library tcr (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40103496) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 4:39 PM Author: Purple business firm We actually know exactly what would happen--almost nothing. Because we have multiple case studies to prove it. 1. Gangelt, Germany, where 15% have the virus & IFR of 0.37%: https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/09/999015/blood-tests-show-15-of-people-are-now-immune-to-covid-19-in-one-town-in-germany/ 2. Boston homeless shelter (i.e., running loose in close quarters), 50% tested positive, basically all asymptomatic: https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/us/boston-homeless-coronavirus-outbreak/index.html 3. State prison study (i.e., running loose in close quarters), 90%+ tested positive, 96%+ asymptomatic: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-prisons-testing-in-idUSKCN2270RX These studies go on and on, obviously much smaller in the city testing (LA, Santa Clara, Boston street testing), but these, like the cruise ship studies, show us one thing: even when the disease runs rampant (at least, among "typical" populations, not in senior citizen centers), the fatality rate is exceedingly low (by "low," I mean comparable to a bad flu season). By the way, given that we have (1) a vaccine, (2) antivirals, (3) competent emergency medical treatment, and (4) no "load" problems when it comes to the flu, we should be surprised that the flu kills *so many* relative to the coronavirus. And if that's the case, maybe we should start locking down for the heck of it every winter. And, of course, these paranoid fantasies of people staying at home are actively willing to kill people of cancer due to lack of diagnosis, depression-related suicide, heart attacks that patients avoided treatment in hospitals, child abuse and neglect, increases to obesity-related illness, and other causes of death directly attributable to the "lockdowns." Maybe we'd have more coronavirus-related deaths if we opened up (but the "science" says that's unlikely). But we'd also see a drop in others. But whatever. I'm sure the latest r/ or Twitter thread of Seth Abramson or celebrity ad streaming on Hulu are probably right, we'd have *billions* dead if we did nothing. |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 4:43 PM Author: Rebellious Grizzly Kitty Foreskin Virusbadmos, your response? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40097980) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 6:09 PM Author: drab appetizing parlour 80,000 died of the flu all of two years ago. you don't even remember that being a news story at all. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40098472) |
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Date: April 27th, 2020 11:30 AM Author: jade arousing feces That's because that 80,000 is a horseshit number pulled from thin air.
There are actual dead bodies in this scenario. |
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Date: April 27th, 2020 11:31 AM Author: Sinister Cerebral Range Main People How horny are you right now? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40102427) |
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Date: April 27th, 2020 11:33 AM Author: jade arousing feces (mentally ill AZN) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40102443) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 7:26 PM Author: Orange library So let's say it would be 80k people, who just got it sooner and we would have 26 million more jobs and 1.4 trillion less in debt. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40098916) |
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Date: April 27th, 2020 2:37 PM Author: Ruddy provocative depressive Hundreds of thousands of deaths over the next several months are being prevented. The unemployment is temporary. The debt is vast with the deficit at least $5 trillion this year but low interest rates make it manageable. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40103563) |
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Date: April 27th, 2020 2:40 PM Author: Orange library "Hundreds of thousands of deaths over the next several months are being prevented"
They are not. This spreads like a wildfire and sooner or later everyone is going to get it. So you're not saving anyone.
"The unemployment is temporary."
No, it is long-term. Businesses are failing and jobs are disappearing. We have a national debt that is out of control at this point. People who shrug and say "we'll print money just like Weimar Germany but we're America so we won't suffer any consequences" went full retard in the end.
"The debt is vast with the deficit at least $5 trillion this year but low interest rates make it manageable."
LOL.
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Date: April 27th, 2020 2:43 PM Author: Ruddy provocative depressive There might be a vaccine next year, economy will bounce back next year, debt is bad but not out of control. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40103593) |
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Date: April 27th, 2020 3:07 PM Author: Bipolar Abode , he said without evidence (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40103760) |
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Date: April 27th, 2020 4:32 PM Author: navy laughsome plaza scourge upon the earth like the vaccine for AIDS and the common cold?
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Date: April 27th, 2020 4:34 PM Author: Orange library There "might" be a new form of genetic engineering that causes us to combat most diseases, included COVID, AIDS, etc. and make our dicks grow to 10" and extend our life expectancy to 200 years. Any other hypotheticals you wish to discuss? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40104306) |
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Date: April 28th, 2020 2:49 AM Author: Ruddy provocative depressive The vaccine is hypothetical but something that mainstream experts voice confidence in. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40107565) |
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Date: April 27th, 2020 4:35 PM Author: very tactful hairraiser native Lol flame? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40104308) |