Date: March 22nd, 2020 4:28 AM Author: Smoky double fault
It's not the Chinese it's being driven domestically. Real talk, there's an entire underground currency in tp emerging at the margins of the economy now and we suspect it's only going to grow as the situation deteriorates. At a person-to-person level, people have begun exchanging it for home goods, beauty services, some food delivery, and transportation services at a minimum. At a business-to-business level, there are growing reports that clients and intermediate suppliers are negotiating $2tp exchanges to offload debts owed or else packaging them in tp-denominated terms and securitzing the debt in grey pools. This still hasn't hit the mainstream, but the momentum is growing--it reminds me of bitcoin c. 2012, 2013. A few of our own clients have proposed alternative tp fee arrangements and we are at least considering their offers.
Date: March 22nd, 2020 4:31 AM Author: Smoky double fault
Our current modeling suggests we'll see toilet paper breakout really beginning Q3 2020 with upward momentum at least through the next 12 months, with some hedging depending on the course of the coronacycle. Medium-run uncertainty then kicks in because of transition effects in markets as they adjust to the new normal of tp; but our expectation is this is a long-run macrosecular shift--pandora's box has been opened and it's going to change one pillar of the Bretton-Woods consensus like it or not.
Date: March 22nd, 2020 4:38 AM Author: Smoky double fault
Communities are coming together to barrelize their feces in crude oil drums because of its latent fuel potential and they're storing them at key depot locations around cities. Go into the parking garage on Mott St across from Mottsu. Use the elevator sequence 1-5-3-2. See where it takes you; open one of them up and take a whiff to confirm it's the real deal (hint: it is). This is happening in real time and those who are fast acting and working to build up a supply are going to have a leg up in the new normal marketplace.
Date: March 23rd, 2020 6:23 PM Author: lavender state
I’ve figured out WHY this is happening
I posted earlier above WHO is doing it: chinese parallel traders buying it all up and shipping it to china like with infant milk formula, masks, hand sanitizer for huge profits
But I couldn’t figure out WHY. I mean, I get the masks and the sanitizer, but who the fuck needs toilet paper so much that they’ll pay 10-20x normal prices for it, right?
So maybe a month ago these chinese traders bought up all the paper they could find and shipped it back to China for a yuge profit, selling it all to Chinese people making their own face masks.
And then normal people saw the empty shelves and that started everybody panic buying toilet paper and other paper products, and here we are.