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The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| black concupiscible public bath jew | 12/10/15 |
| dashing den faggotry | 12/12/15 |
| black concupiscible public bath jew | 01/02/17 |
| irate brethren parlour | 01/06/16 |
| Sick stock car sanctuary | 01/06/16 |
| Sick stock car sanctuary | 06/05/16 |
| Know-it-all bearded stage | 03/26/16 |
| Vivacious stag film fortuitous meteor | 01/02/17 |
| galvanic bbw preventive strike | 10/25/18 |
| Hyperactive Provocative Point Laser Beams | 12/10/15 |
| Cracking Autistic Church Building | 12/10/15 |
| Arousing painfully honest principal's office legend | 12/10/15 |
| Insecure Candlestick Maker | 12/10/15 |
| irradiated shrine | 12/15/15 |
| Hairraiser chestnut kitty | 12/10/15 |
| cyan address striped hyena | 12/10/15 |
| rusted spectacular clown senate | 12/10/15 |
| wonderful drunken temple | 12/11/15 |
| magenta milk reading party | 12/12/15 |
| cheese-eating poppy hospital antidepressant drug | 12/16/15 |
| Curious crackhouse | 01/04/16 |
| floppy cruise ship black woman | 11/09/16 |
| black concupiscible public bath jew | 12/11/15 |
| Aphrodisiac abode nowag | 12/11/15 |
| Amethyst balding rigor | 12/11/15 |
| wonderful drunken temple | 12/11/15 |
| supple juggernaut filthpig | 12/12/15 |
| Lascivious saffron office gaping | 01/25/16 |
| french jap house | 11/10/16 |
| black concupiscible public bath jew | 12/12/15 |
| Big indirect expression mediation | 12/12/15 |
| Exhilarant pink round eye | 12/12/15 |
| Flickering Trip Orchestra Pit Skinny Woman | 12/12/15 |
| Lake Pontificating Trump Supporter | 12/15/15 |
| Razzmatazz Ticket Booth Personal Credit Line | 12/21/15 |
| lemon learning disabled haunted graveyard therapy | 12/12/15 |
| Charismatic voyeur | 12/12/15 |
| Mildly autistic bossy spot | 12/12/15 |
| Passionate Genital Piercing | 12/12/15 |
| Light Locus Old Irish Cottage | 12/12/15 |
| Out-of-control Love Of Her Life National | 12/12/15 |
| cyan address striped hyena | 12/15/15 |
| cyan address striped hyena | 12/16/15 |
| Self-centered casino party of the first part | 12/15/15 |
| Turquoise rigpig | 12/15/15 |
| cream seedy windowlicker | 12/15/15 |
| territorial state ratface | 12/15/15 |
| Claret trailer park | 12/15/15 |
| Bisexual Boyish Electric Furnace Location | 12/15/15 |
| black concupiscible public bath jew | 12/15/15 |
| black concupiscible public bath jew | 12/15/15 |
| black concupiscible public bath jew | 12/15/15 |
| black concupiscible public bath jew | 12/15/15 |
| black concupiscible public bath jew | 12/15/15 |
| vibrant stead | 01/05/16 |
| Lascivious saffron office gaping | 01/25/16 |
| vigorous flushed multi-billionaire | 12/17/16 |
| electric flirting patrolman | 05/18/16 |
| Erotic base | 08/12/16 |
| black concupiscible public bath jew | 11/09/16 |
| apoplectic ceo | 11/09/16 |
| beady-eyed business firm | 11/09/16 |
| Unholy stubborn forum azn | 10/22/20 |
| Bistre university private investor | 12/15/15 |
| 180 gas station | 12/16/15 |
| spruce fragrant immigrant menage | 12/16/15 |
| heady ruby locale community account | 12/16/15 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 12/16/15 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 12/17/15 |
| pungent drab new version scourge upon the earth | 12/18/15 |
| irate brethren parlour | 01/06/16 |
| Splenetic national security agency brunch | 12/18/15 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 12/21/15 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 12/21/15 |
| Razzmatazz Ticket Booth Personal Credit Line | 12/21/15 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 12/30/15 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 12/30/15 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 01/04/16 |
| Curious crackhouse | 01/04/16 |
| black concupiscible public bath jew | 01/05/16 |
| Lascivious saffron office gaping | 01/25/16 |
| pungent drab new version scourge upon the earth | 01/05/16 |
| Big-titted french chef | 01/05/16 |
| judgmental multi-colored gunner native | 01/05/16 |
| mind-boggling clear knife | 01/05/16 |
| Contagious whorehouse quadroon | 01/05/16 |
| mind-boggling clear knife | 01/05/16 |
| irate brethren parlour | 01/06/16 |
| mind-boggling clear knife | 01/06/16 |
| Contagious whorehouse quadroon | 01/05/16 |
| Erotic base | 01/06/16 |
| Razzmatazz Ticket Booth Personal Credit Line | 01/07/16 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 01/08/16 |
| Diverse lay | 01/08/16 |
| Razzmatazz Ticket Booth Personal Credit Line | 01/08/16 |
| pungent drab new version scourge upon the earth | 01/09/16 |
| Razzmatazz Ticket Booth Personal Credit Line | 01/10/16 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 01/18/16 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 01/19/16 |
| pungent drab new version scourge upon the earth | 01/21/16 |
| black concupiscible public bath jew | 01/25/16 |
| soul-stirring masturbator sex offender | 01/25/16 |
| Lascivious saffron office gaping | 01/25/16 |
| soul-stirring masturbator sex offender | 02/09/16 |
| Diverse lay | 09/06/16 |
| irate brethren parlour | 11/05/18 |
| Razzle Shaky Famous Landscape Painting Home | 01/29/16 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 02/01/16 |
| histrionic resort faggot firefighter | 02/01/16 |
| black concupiscible public bath jew | 02/01/16 |
| black concupiscible public bath jew | 02/07/16 |
| Big-titted french chef | 02/09/16 |
| Motley crotch puppy | 02/09/16 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 02/20/16 |
| Cerebral Misanthropic Range Toilet Seat | 02/20/16 |
| electric flirting patrolman | 02/24/16 |
| beta bateful theatre internal respiration | 02/24/16 |
| Nofapping dog poop | 02/27/16 |
| Self-centered casino party of the first part | 03/09/16 |
| Indigo Hell | 03/15/16 |
| Arousing painfully honest principal's office legend | 03/15/16 |
| Turquoise rigpig | 03/16/16 |
| Obsidian crawly dilemma | 02/24/16 |
| Lavender exciting shitlib | 02/24/16 |
| Turquoise rigpig | 07/21/16 |
| thriller snowy lodge cuckoldry | 02/24/16 |
| Arousing painfully honest principal's office legend | 02/27/16 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 03/02/16 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 03/04/16 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 03/09/16 |
| Big-titted french chef | 03/09/16 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 03/15/16 |
| electric flirting patrolman | 03/15/16 |
| laughsome blood rage kitchen | 03/15/16 |
| Medicated Marvelous Theater | 03/15/16 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 03/16/16 |
| cyan address striped hyena | 03/16/16 |
| apoplectic ceo | 03/23/16 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 03/23/16 |
| Mildly autistic bossy spot | 03/26/16 |
| green godawful corn cake lettuce | 03/26/16 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 03/26/16 |
| vibrant stead | 03/28/16 |
| apoplectic ceo | 03/28/16 |
| Cracking Autistic Church Building | 03/28/16 |
| Erotic base | 08/12/16 |
| irate brethren parlour | 11/05/18 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 03/28/16 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 03/29/16 |
| pearl plaza | 03/29/16 |
| pearl plaza | 03/29/16 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 03/29/16 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 03/29/16 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 04/01/16 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 04/04/16 |
| pearl plaza | 04/15/16 |
| swashbuckling police squad alpha | 04/15/16 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 04/19/16 |
| appetizing pea-brained kitty cat market | 04/20/16 |
| Excitant Stage Sweet Tailpipe | 04/20/16 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 04/24/16 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 04/25/16 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 04/26/16 |
| adventurous avocado gaming laptop rehab | 04/26/16 |
| cerise odious step-uncle's house mental disorder | 04/30/16 |
| Razzle-dazzle maroon cuck meetinghouse | 05/01/16 |
| Razzle-dazzle maroon cuck meetinghouse | 11/07/16 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 05/02/16 |
| apoplectic ceo | 05/02/16 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 05/03/16 |
| purple library | 05/03/16 |
| Aquamarine stimulating people who are hurt | 05/03/16 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 05/04/16 |
| Diverse lay | 05/04/16 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 05/05/16 |
| Passionate Genital Piercing | 05/05/16 |
| black concupiscible public bath jew | 05/05/16 |
| Lavender exciting shitlib | 05/05/16 |
| Big indirect expression mediation | 05/18/16 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 05/18/16 |
| electric flirting patrolman | 05/18/16 |
| Big indirect expression mediation | 05/18/16 |
| black concupiscible public bath jew | 05/29/16 |
| black concupiscible public bath jew | 06/20/16 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 06/29/16 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 07/14/16 |
| disgusting duck-like institution really tough guy | 07/15/16 |
| Erotic base | 07/15/16 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 07/17/16 |
| Diverse lay | 07/17/16 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 07/21/16 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 07/22/16 |
| mauve talented space | 07/22/16 |
| aromatic bright associate | 07/23/16 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 07/24/16 |
| Racy brass deer antler | 07/25/16 |
| pearl plaza | 07/25/16 |
| black concupiscible public bath jew | 07/27/16 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 08/05/16 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 08/09/16 |
| black concupiscible public bath jew | 08/12/16 |
| Diverse lay | 08/12/16 |
| black concupiscible public bath jew | 08/12/16 |
| Glittery domesticated elastic band double fault | 08/12/16 |
| black concupiscible public bath jew | 08/30/16 |
| Diverse lay | 08/30/16 |
| Diverse lay | 09/06/16 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 09/13/16 |
| pearl plaza | 09/14/16 |
| lemon learning disabled haunted graveyard therapy | 09/14/16 |
| Comical sexy dopamine coffee pot | 09/15/16 |
| Grizzly hissy fit | 09/15/16 |
| Sick stock car sanctuary | 09/15/16 |
| Sienna Unhinged Water Buffalo Hall | 09/15/16 |
| Titillating Hateful Area | 09/15/16 |
| Coral costumed station nibblets | 09/19/16 |
| Coral costumed station nibblets | 09/19/16 |
| Diverse lay | 09/27/16 |
| black concupiscible public bath jew | 09/24/16 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 09/27/16 |
| Diverse lay | 09/27/16 |
| cyan address striped hyena | 09/27/16 |
| Milky nighttime dragon | 10/08/16 |
| Slippery piazza | 07/29/24 |
| pearl plaza | 09/28/16 |
| lemon learning disabled haunted graveyard therapy | 09/28/16 |
| Diverse lay | 09/28/16 |
| Excitant Stage Sweet Tailpipe | 09/28/16 |
| swashbuckling police squad alpha | 09/28/16 |
| Maniacal sable cuckold | 10/08/16 |
| Diverse lay | 10/09/16 |
| Orange Roommate | 10/09/16 |
| Diverse lay | 10/09/16 |
| Deranged lime corner jewess | 10/09/16 |
| pearl plaza | 10/10/16 |
| Racy brass deer antler | 10/30/16 |
| Erotic base | 11/01/16 |
| Sienna Unhinged Water Buffalo Hall | 11/01/16 |
| impressive arrogant hairy legs tanning salon | 11/02/16 |
| territorial state ratface | 11/02/16 |
| pearl plaza | 11/07/16 |
| yellow garrison | 11/08/16 |
| pearl plaza | 11/08/16 |
| black concupiscible public bath jew | 11/08/16 |
| pearl plaza | 11/08/16 |
| harsh chapel | 11/08/16 |
| translucent athletic conference | 11/08/16 |
| histrionic resort faggot firefighter | 11/08/16 |
| Coral costumed station nibblets | 11/08/16 |
| black concupiscible public bath jew | 11/08/16 |
| sooty heaven foreskin | 11/09/16 |
| Comical sexy dopamine coffee pot | 11/09/16 |
| ivory useless brakes | 11/09/16 |
| black concupiscible public bath jew | 11/09/16 |
| Sienna Unhinged Water Buffalo Hall | 11/09/16 |
| sooty heaven foreskin | 11/09/16 |
| Racy brass deer antler | 11/09/16 |
| Passionate Genital Piercing | 11/09/16 |
| fishy trust fund | 12/03/16 |
| french jap house | 12/07/16 |
| vigorous flushed multi-billionaire | 12/17/16 |
| Startled volcanic crater site | 10/11/24 |
| Mentally Impaired Indian Lodge Travel Guidebook | 11/09/16 |
| flesh school halford | 11/09/16 |
| sapphire telephone | 11/09/16 |
| internet-worthy pit degenerate | 11/09/16 |
| fishy trust fund | 11/09/16 |
| Erotic base | 11/09/16 |
| black concupiscible public bath jew | 11/09/16 |
| Big indirect expression mediation | 11/09/16 |
| Diverse lay | 11/09/16 |
| shimmering theater stage | 11/09/16 |
| black concupiscible public bath jew | 11/09/16 |
| transparent persian | 11/09/16 |
| angry box office pervert | 11/09/16 |
| black concupiscible public bath jew | 11/09/16 |
| Insecure Candlestick Maker | 11/09/16 |
| Splenetic national security agency brunch | 11/10/16 |
| soul-stirring masturbator sex offender | 11/10/16 |
| Sick stock car sanctuary | 11/10/16 |
| insane stain place of business | 11/10/16 |
| black concupiscible public bath jew | 11/10/16 |
| pearl plaza | 11/10/16 |
| Cerebral Misanthropic Range Toilet Seat | 11/10/16 |
| Coral costumed station nibblets | 11/14/16 |
| cumskin | 11/14/16 |
| greedy center | 12/04/16 |
| vigorous flushed multi-billionaire | 12/17/16 |
| Startled volcanic crater site | 10/11/24 |
| black concupiscible public bath jew | 11/25/16 |
| Tan goal in life | 12/03/16 |
| Deranged lime corner jewess | 12/04/16 |
| offensive nursing home liquid oxygen | 12/07/16 |
| Sick stock car sanctuary | 12/07/16 |
| Tan goal in life | 12/07/16 |
| black concupiscible public bath jew | 01/02/17 |
| bawdyhouse | 01/02/17 |
| black concupiscible public bath jew | 01/02/17 |
| bawdyhouse | 01/02/17 |
| black concupiscible public bath jew | 03/03/20 |
| Sick stock car sanctuary | 01/02/17 |
| apoplectic ceo | 01/16/17 |
| bawdyhouse | 01/20/17 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 01/20/17 |
| bawdyhouse | 01/23/17 |
| Maniacal sable cuckold | 01/23/17 |
| bawdyhouse | 01/23/17 |
| sepia field | 01/23/17 |
| Maniacal sable cuckold | 01/23/17 |
| bawdyhouse | 01/23/17 |
| bawdyhouse | 01/25/17 |
| bawdyhouse | 01/26/17 |
| bawdyhouse | 02/06/17 |
| bawdyhouse | 02/13/17 |
| bawdyhouse | 02/27/17 |
| bawdyhouse | 05/03/17 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 05/03/17 |
| bawdyhouse | 09/21/17 |
| Arousing painfully honest principal's office legend | 01/23/17 |
| Sienna Unhinged Water Buffalo Hall | 02/27/17 |
| irate brethren parlour | 03/22/17 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 04/17/17 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 05/08/17 |
| black concupiscible public bath jew | 06/20/17 |
| black concupiscible public bath jew | 08/10/17 |
| black concupiscible public bath jew | 10/15/17 |
| apoplectic ceo | 10/15/17 |
| macaca | 10/15/17 |
| black concupiscible public bath jew | 11/06/17 |
| honey-headed feces | 11/06/17 |
| Glassy Marketing Idea | 11/08/17 |
| Disrespectful violet incel | 11/08/17 |
| zombie-like walnut circlehead boiling water | 11/13/17 |
| apoplectic ceo | 12/18/17 |
| Diverse lay | 12/18/17 |
| apoplectic ceo | 12/18/17 |
| black concupiscible public bath jew | 01/30/18 |
| Sick stock car sanctuary | 06/01/18 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 07/18/18 |
| apoplectic ceo | 07/19/18 |
| Titillating Hateful Area | 09/20/18 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 09/25/18 |
| Cracking Autistic Church Building | 10/06/18 |
| black concupiscible public bath jew | 10/06/18 |
| Sick stock car sanctuary | 10/25/18 |
| Grizzly hissy fit | 10/25/18 |
| Lascivious saffron office gaping | 11/05/18 |
| Sick stock car sanctuary | 11/05/18 |
| irate brethren parlour | 11/05/18 |
| Sick stock car sanctuary | 11/05/18 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 01/08/19 |
| Sickened church | 02/23/19 |
| black concupiscible public bath jew | 03/13/19 |
| Lascivious saffron office gaping | 06/24/19 |
| slate school cafeteria | 06/24/19 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 11/18/19 |
| Sienna Unhinged Water Buffalo Hall | 02/12/20 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 02/12/20 |
| black concupiscible public bath jew | 03/24/20 |
| olive fantasy-prone set | 03/24/20 |
| disgusting duck-like institution really tough guy | 04/04/20 |
| black concupiscible public bath jew | 04/26/20 |
| black concupiscible public bath jew | 05/13/20 |
| disgusting duck-like institution really tough guy | 06/05/20 |
| Rebellious Property Karate | 06/05/20 |
| disgusting duck-like institution really tough guy | 09/09/20 |
| Sienna Unhinged Water Buffalo Hall | 09/09/20 |
| Hyperactive Provocative Point Laser Beams | 09/09/20 |
| parlor | 09/12/20 |
| House-broken Tank | 09/24/20 |
| slate school cafeteria | 10/09/20 |
| apoplectic ceo | 10/10/20 |
| mad-dog skullcap | 10/22/20 |
| fishy trust fund | 10/22/20 |
| Unholy stubborn forum azn | 10/22/20 |
| Unholy stubborn forum azn | 10/22/20 |
| Boistinker | 03/23/22 |
| black concupiscible public bath jew | 10/27/20 |
| irate brethren parlour | 10/27/20 |
| slate school cafeteria | 10/30/20 |
| apoplectic ceo | 11/03/20 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 03/22/22 |
| Metal puce | 03/23/22 |
| silver roast beef | 03/23/22 |
| Umber Mexican | 03/23/22 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 07/25/22 |
| Hyperactive Provocative Point Laser Beams | 07/25/22 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 10/23/22 |
| black concupiscible public bath jew | 11/16/22 |
| black concupiscible public bath jew | 04/25/23 |
| Big indirect expression mediation | 04/25/23 |
| House-broken Tank | 04/29/23 |
| Slippery piazza | 05/28/23 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 02/22/24 |
| House-broken Tank | 02/23/24 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 05/23/24 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 08/26/24 |
| House-broken Tank | 09/13/24 |
| Hyperactive Provocative Point Laser Beams | 09/13/24 |
| House-broken Tank | 10/18/24 |
| Startled volcanic crater site | 10/11/24 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 11/06/24 |
| Passionate Genital Piercing | 03/04/25 |
| Passionate Genital Piercing | 03/04/25 |
| Titillating Hateful Area | 03/04/25 |
| Startled volcanic crater site | 03/04/25 |
| lilac hideous depressive digit ratio | 03/04/25 |
| orchid potus | 03/05/25 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 03/07/25 |
| crystalline pozpig | 03/07/25 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 03/08/25 |
| underhanded zippy son of senegal | 03/08/25 |
| Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan | 03/08/25 |
| Arousing painfully honest principal's office legend | 02/18/26 |
| lfo | 05/15/26 |
| ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, | 05/17/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: black concupiscible public bath jew December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: dashing den faggotry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364653) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: black concupiscible public bath jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32284620) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: irate brethren parlour (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29532817) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: Sick stock car sanctuary (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29532846) |
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Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM Author: Sick stock car sanctuary another bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30631018) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:16 PM Author: Know-it-all bearded stage 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30144195) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:00 PM Author: Vivacious stag film fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32284612) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM Author: galvanic bbw preventive strike "October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37090197) |
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM Author: Hyperactive Provocative Point Laser Beams (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351706) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:52 PM Author: Cracking Autistic Church Building 1800000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351728) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: Arousing painfully honest principal's office legend 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351742) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:08 PM Author: irradiated shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384172) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:55 PM Author: Hairraiser chestnut kitty FUCK | THIS | KIKE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351749) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: cyan address striped hyena Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351753) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: rusted spectacular clown senate Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: wonderful drunken temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29359932) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: magenta milk reading party Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364985) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: cheese-eating poppy hospital antidepressant drug Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29392387) |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: Curious crackhouse Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM Author: Flickering Trip Orchestra Pit Skinny Woman March 9
THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
THE CORSICAN OGRE HAS LANDED AT CAPE JUAN
March 11
THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP
March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL
He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS
March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:06 PM Author: Lake Pontificating Trump Supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384155) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:26 PM Author: Razzmatazz Ticket Booth Personal Credit Line 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29429271) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:59 PM Author: Light Locus Old Irish Cottage Well done. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364896) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:08 PM Author: Out-of-control Love Of Her Life National Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke myself to a FULL CHUB while reading. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364933) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: cyan address striped hyena OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29383835) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: cyan address striped hyena And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM Author: Self-centered casino party of the first part 190 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29383898) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Turquoise rigpig fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29383961) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: cream seedy windowlicker I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384107) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: territorial state ratface 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384183) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: Claret trailer park February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: Bisexual Boyish Electric Furnace Location You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384207) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: black concupiscible public bath jew Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: black concupiscible public bath jew http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384231) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: black concupiscible public bath jew http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384237) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: black concupiscible public bath jew http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384254) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: black concupiscible public bath jew http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384262) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:43 PM Author: Lascivious saffron office gaping Can't wait to bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29677869) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: vigorous flushed multi-billionaire (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32165246) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: black concupiscible public bath jew http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31846270) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: apoplectic ceo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31846325) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: beady-eyed business firm Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: Unholy stubborn forum azn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41167037) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Bistre university private investor This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384232) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:34 PM Author: 180 gas station 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29392396) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
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Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: pungent drab new version scourge upon the earth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29411300) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: irate brethren parlour (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29532836) |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: Splenetic national security agency brunch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29411342) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: Razzmatazz Ticket Booth Personal Credit Line 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29429241) |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: Curious crackhouse flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29519032) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: black concupiscible public bath jew ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29525598) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: Lascivious saffron office gaping Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29677890) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: pungent drab new version scourge upon the earth From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: mind-boggling clear knife An historic poast (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29531481) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:16 PM Author: Contagious whorehouse quadroon 180 trillion (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29531500) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: mind-boggling clear knife I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:45 AM Author: irate brethren parlour (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29532843) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: mind-boggling clear knife Bump to make sure my friends saw this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29535993) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: Contagious whorehouse quadroon No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29531557) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Erotic base (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29532829) |
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Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: Razzmatazz Ticket Booth Personal Credit Line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29546163) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: Diverse lay 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29551314) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: Razzmatazz Ticket Booth Personal Credit Line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29554010) |
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Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: pungent drab new version scourge upon the earth http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29559692) |
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Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: Razzmatazz Ticket Booth Personal Credit Line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29566112) |
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Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29622950) |
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Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
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Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: pungent drab new version scourge upon the earth looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:26 PM Author: black concupiscible public bath jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29677719) |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/ |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:20 AM Author: irate brethren parlour (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37162050) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:32 PM Author: pearl plaza lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30160689) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: pearl plaza "One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 5:14 PM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30161654) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30163086) |
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Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30183235) |
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Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: pearl plaza interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:47 AM Author: swashbuckling police squad alpha (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30279158) |
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Date: April 19th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30307876) |
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Date: April 20th, 2016 11:13 AM Author: Excitant Stage Sweet Tailpipe I love this thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30310807) |
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Date: April 24th, 2016 1:07 AM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30335375) |
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Date: April 25th, 2016 10:37 PM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30346848) |
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Date: April 26th, 2016 9:29 PM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30353572) |
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Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: Razzle-dazzle maroon cuck meetinghouse Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:27 PM Author: Razzle-dazzle maroon cuck meetinghouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31825048) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 7:16 PM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30392947) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 8:17 PM Author: apoplectic ceo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30393360) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:35 PM Author: purple library holy shit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30398720) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 9:15 PM Author: Aquamarine stimulating people who are hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30402170) |
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Date: May 4th, 2016 9:04 AM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30405223) |
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Date: May 4th, 2016 9:33 AM Author: Diverse lay 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30405346) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:02 AM Author: Passionate Genital Piercing Lol every response is "how about Obama?" What a hack (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30412976) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 10:40 AM Author: black concupiscible public bath jew LOL 12 years in this place and I think I found my magnum opus, fml (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30412844) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:05 AM Author: Lavender exciting shitlib Yeah bro. You should mic drop and walk the fuck away. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30412994) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Big indirect expression mediation This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30504267) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:03 AM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30504223) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: electric flirting patrolman In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is an all-time great first ballot HOF poast, I'm just curious: How long did it take you to put this masterstroke together? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30504268) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM Author: Big indirect expression mediation cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30504274) |
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Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM Author: black concupiscible public bath jew lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30583536) |
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Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: black concupiscible public bath jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30746085) |
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Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
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Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30924907) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: disgusting duck-like institution really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30933127) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: Erotic base (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30933205) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30956384) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: Diverse lay 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30956397) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30987656) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30999290) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: mauve talented space (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30999301) |
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Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: aromatic bright associate Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31006876) |
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Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31020363) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: Racy brass deer antler Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31022942) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: pearl plaza amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31023351) |
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Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: black concupiscible public bath jew Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31043518) |
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Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31113817) |
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Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: black concupiscible public bath jew THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: Diverse lay holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31172565) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: black concupiscible public bath jew I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31172569) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: Glittery domesticated elastic band double fault LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31172627) |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: black concupiscible public bath jew THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: Diverse lay 180 i want 2 believe |
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Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Diverse lay lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31345879) |
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Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: pearl plaza ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31404088) |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: lemon learning disabled haunted graveyard therapy Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31404101) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Comical sexy dopamine coffee pot September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Grizzly hissy fit September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: Sick stock car sanctuary god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31413930) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: Sienna Unhinged Water Buffalo Hall XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31413938) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: Titillating Hateful Area (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31413954) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: Coral costumed station nibblets (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31443744) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: Coral costumed station nibblets The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31443779) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Diverse lay let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31503555) |
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Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: black concupiscible public bath jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31482152) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31503552) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Diverse lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31503554) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: cyan address striped hyena This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31503556) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: Milky nighttime dragon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31592208) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: Slippery piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#47906632) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: pearl plaza http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: lemon learning disabled haunted graveyard therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31511665) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: Diverse lay 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31511673) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: Excitant Stage Sweet Tailpipe This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31512070) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: swashbuckling police squad alpha (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31513385) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: Maniacal sable cuckold (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31592192) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Diverse lay hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31594952) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Orange Roommate Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31594953) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Diverse lay doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31594954) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Deranged lime corner jewess half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31594956) |
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Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: pearl plaza nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
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Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: Racy brass deer antler close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31763265) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: Erotic base Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31772625) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: Sienna Unhinged Water Buffalo Hall (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31777531) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM Author: impressive arrogant hairy legs tanning salon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31782180) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM Author: territorial state ratface (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31786832) |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: pearl plaza prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31825019) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: yellow garrison You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31833310) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: pearl plaza true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31833315) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: black concupiscible public bath jew ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31839758) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: pearl plaza ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31844114) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:04 PM Author: harsh chapel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31842891) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: translucent athletic conference Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:33 PM Author: histrionic resort faggot firefighter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31843660) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:59 PM Author: Coral costumed station nibblets (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31844292) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:10 PM Author: black concupiscible public bath jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31844674) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:07 AM Author: sooty heaven foreskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31846281) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Comical sexy dopamine coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31846326) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:12 AM Author: ivory useless brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31846448) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:22 AM Author: black concupiscible public bath jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31848552) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM Author: Sienna Unhinged Water Buffalo Hall GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31848608) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM Author: sooty heaven foreskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31848693) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:30 AM Author: Racy brass deer antler it really deserves national attention (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31848755) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:31 AM Author: Passionate Genital Piercing (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31848775) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 2:00 AM Author: fishy trust fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32044462) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: french jap house (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32076291) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: vigorous flushed multi-billionaire (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32165256) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Startled volcanic crater site (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48187313) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:29 AM Author: Mentally Impaired Indian Lodge Travel Guidebook (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31848725) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:54 AM Author: flesh school halford Historic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31849301) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:03 AM Author: sapphire telephone (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31849447) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: internet-worthy pit degenerate 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: fishy trust fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31851790) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: Erotic base (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31852918) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: black concupiscible public bath jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31854576) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Big indirect expression mediation this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31854584) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: Diverse lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31855383) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: shimmering theater stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31855482) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: black concupiscible public bath jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31863076) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: transparent persian (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31863082) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: angry box office pervert (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31863093) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: black concupiscible public bath jew November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: Insecure Candlestick Maker you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31863503) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:58 AM Author: Splenetic national security agency brunch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31866924) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: soul-stirring masturbator sex offender Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31868448) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: Sick stock car sanctuary bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31866864) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM Author: insane stain place of business (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31867005) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: black concupiscible public bath jew sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: pearl plaza ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31868235) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: Cerebral Misanthropic Range Toilet Seat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31868543) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: Coral costumed station nibblets (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31907692) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: cumskin They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31907697) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: greedy center Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32055646) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: vigorous flushed multi-billionaire (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32165261) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Startled volcanic crater site (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48187317) |
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Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: black concupiscible public bath jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31989410) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: Tan goal in life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32044435) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: Deranged lime corner jewess GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32055631) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: offensive nursing home liquid oxygen https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32076268) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Sick stock car sanctuary (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32076292) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: Tan goal in life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32076345) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: black concupiscible public bath jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32284600) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: bawdyhouse October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: black concupiscible public bath jew ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32284631) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: bawdyhouse ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
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Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: black concupiscible public bath jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#39686962) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Sick stock car sanctuary truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32284649) |
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Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: apoplectic ceo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32389095) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: bawdyhouse https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32412323) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32416346) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: bawdyhouse http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Maniacal sable cuckold TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32441222) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: bawdyhouse It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32441238) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: sepia field I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: Maniacal sable cuckold it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: bawdyhouse The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32441319) |
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Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: bawdyhouse https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32458110) |
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Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: bawdyhouse https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32466804) |
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Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: bawdyhouse https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32560776) |
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Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: bawdyhouse https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32612572) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: bawdyhouse https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32714310) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: bawdyhouse https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#33221553) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#33222883) |
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Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: bawdyhouse https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34257967) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Arousing painfully honest principal's office legend this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32441221) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: Sienna Unhinged Water Buffalo Hall One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32714399) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: irate brethren parlour (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32891711) |
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Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#33097887) |
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Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#33256991) |
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Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: black concupiscible public bath jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#33605191) |
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Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: black concupiscible public bath jew What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: black concupiscible public bath jew https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34449074) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: apoplectic ceo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34449102) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: macaca (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34449138) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: black concupiscible public bath jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34615930) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: honey-headed feces credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34615959) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: Glassy Marketing Idea (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34636123) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: Disrespectful violet incel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34636459) |
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Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: zombie-like walnut circlehead boiling water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34673088) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: apoplectic ceo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34948560) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: Diverse lay Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34948572) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: apoplectic ceo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34950581) |
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Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: black concupiscible public bath jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#35278621) |
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Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: Sick stock car sanctuary (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#36168381) |
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Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#36451135) |
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Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: apoplectic ceo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#36458802) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: Titillating Hateful Area (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#36847087) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: Cracking Autistic Church Building It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#36973680) |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: black concupiscible public bath jew lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#36973690) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: Sick stock car sanctuary (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37090167) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: Grizzly hissy fit Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37090191) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: Lascivious saffron office gaping (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37161974) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: Sick stock car sanctuary (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37161955) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: irate brethren parlour (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37162045) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: Sick stock car sanctuary (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37167335) |
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Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37553376) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: Sickened church (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37833345) |
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Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: black concupiscible public bath jew Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
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Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: Lascivious saffron office gaping There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#38431500) |
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Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: slate school cafeteria (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#38431431) |
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Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#39135638) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: Sienna Unhinged Water Buffalo Hall (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#39583415) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#39583624) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: black concupiscible public bath jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#39849854) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: olive fantasy-prone set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#39849877) |
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Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM Author: disgusting duck-like institution really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#39938878) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: black concupiscible public bath jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#40097972) |
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Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: black concupiscible public bath jew https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: disgusting duck-like institution really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#40354730) |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM Author: Rebellious Property Karate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#40355911) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: disgusting duck-like institution really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#40896459) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: Sienna Unhinged Water Buffalo Hall (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#40896523) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: Hyperactive Provocative Point Laser Beams Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#40896526) |
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Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: parlor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#40908695) |
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Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM Author: House-broken Tank (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#40977795) |
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Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM Author: slate school cafeteria (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41079968) |
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Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: apoplectic ceo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41088157) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM Author: mad-dog skullcap (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41166967) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM Author: fishy trust fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41166990) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: Unholy stubborn forum azn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41167039) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: Unholy stubborn forum azn https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41167053) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: Boistinker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#44203011) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: black concupiscible public bath jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41200021) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: irate brethren parlour (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41202581) |
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Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: slate school cafeteria (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41222868) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: apoplectic ceo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41261120) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#44196611) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: Metal puce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#44202968) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: silver roast beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#44202984) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: Umber Mexican 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#44203017) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#44911871) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Hyperactive Provocative Point Laser Beams A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#44911874) |
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Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#45378008) |
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Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: black concupiscible public bath jew Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: black concupiscible public bath jew https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#46237455) |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: Big indirect expression mediation why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#46237460) |
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Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: House-broken Tank (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#46252623) |
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Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: Slippery piazza FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
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Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#47428670) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: House-broken Tank (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#47430198) |
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Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
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Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48010724) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: House-broken Tank (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48087201) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: Hyperactive Provocative Point Laser Beams One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48087224) |
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Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: House-broken Tank (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48211967) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: Startled volcanic crater site (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48187302) |
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Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48296972) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: Passionate Genital Piercing 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48715841) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: Passionate Genital Piercing https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48715847) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: Titillating Hateful Area Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: Startled volcanic crater site The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48715863) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: lilac hideous depressive digit ratio He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48715869) |
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Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: orchid potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48716330) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48724299) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: crystalline pozpig 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48724306) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: underhanded zippy son of senegal Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48727216) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: Cowardly stirring death wish coldplay fan Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48727802) |
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Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: Arousing painfully honest principal's office legend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#49679495) |
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Date: May 15th, 2026 12:08 PM Author: lfo ABC News has now taken all FiveThirtyEight articles completely offline. They now redirect to abcnews dot com/politics. A needless erasure of thousands of pages of knowledge. https://x.com/baseballot/status/2055309076209492208 |
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Date: May 17th, 2026 11:01 AM Author: ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, i sense that there is a bit of a movement to shame ABC into providing access again.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/16/business/media/fivethirtyeight-abc-removed.html |