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how many PED suspensions should there be if 1% of NCAA football player are takin
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Date: October 15th, 2015 11:28 AM Author: sadistic lay dingle berry g them?
128 teams x 85 scholarship players a team = 10,880 total players
x .01 = 108 guys on PEDs
lets say the test can catch 5% of users
that should be something like 5 or 6 guys a year getting busted
something like every other week you should hear another blurb about so and so get suspended for testing positive, or at least once a month, or at least a couple times a year
I feel like I follow this pretty closely, the positive NCAA tests I can think of off the top of my head: Brian Bosworth prior to the 1987 Orange Bowl, I thought Ryan Dinwiddie got suspended for some sort of PED as the QB at Boise, but that appears lost to the internet, and now Will Grier
its possible other people have been suspended, but none come to my mind
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this basic math seems to lead to 1 of 2 conclusions, either far less than 1% of college players use steroids, or testing catches far less than 5% of PED users, to the point of functionally catching no one
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if the second of those is the right conclusion, and its hard (at least for me) not to think that it is
its strikes me that that leads to some pretty stark implications
namely that you have 128 schools with different degrees of taboo against PED usage, and whoever sets the laxest taboo is at the biggest advantage
that everything you hear about so and so being great at spotting talent, or developing talent is a bunch of BS, and that the real key is that those are just the places that wink wink the hardest at PED users
if I was going to guess which places have the biggest PED cultures, http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/after-signing-day-wisconsin-makes-the-best-of-its-recruits/ its hard for me to think that that doesn't chart it pretty well
that if you really want to win, find an assistant strength coach form one of the top 5 or so teams on that list, then basically body shame all your players until they figure out how to put two and two together
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related article:
The report points out that the NCAA conducts random drug testing and the penalties for failure are severe. Players lose an entire year of eligibility after a first positive test. A second offense means permanent ineligibility from sports.
But when you dig into the numbers, the NCAA’s roughly 11,000 annual tests amount to just a fraction of all athletes in Division I and II schools. Exactly how many tests are conducted each year on football players is unclear because the NCAA hasn’t published its data for two years, according to the AP, and when it did, it periodically changed the formats, making it impossible to compare one year of football to the next.
More confounding is that NCAA rules say players can be notified up to two days in advance of a test, which experts say is plenty of time to beat a test. By comparison, Olympic athletes are given no notice.
The top steroid investigator at the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration, Joe Rannazzisi, told the AP that he doesn’t understand why schools don’t invest in the same kind of testing, with the same penalties, as the NFL.
“Is it expensive? Of course, but college football makes a lot of money,” he said. “Invest in the integrity of your program.”
For a school to test all 85 scholarship football players for steroids twice a season would cost up to $34,000, said Don Catlin, an anti-doping pioneer who spent years conducting the NCAA’s laboratory tests at UCLA. The total costs would be about 0.2 percent of the average big-time school football budget of about $14 million.
Caitlin told the AP he became so frustrated with the college system that it drove him in part to leave the testing industry to focus on anti-doping research.
The investigation also found that penalties vary widely from school to school. Here are a few examples: •At Notre Dame and Alabama, the teams that will soon compete for the national championship, players don’t automatically miss games for testing positive for steroids. At Alabama, coaches have wide discretion. Notre Dame’s student-athlete handbook says a player who fails a test can return to the field once the steroids are out of his system. •The University of North Carolina kicks players off the team after a single positive test for steroids. •At UCLA, home of the laboratory that for years set the standard for cutting-edge steroid testing, athletes can fail three drug tests before being suspended. •At the University of Maryland, students must get counseling after testing positive, but school officials are prohibited from disciplining first-time steroid users.
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Date: October 15th, 2015 11:32 AM Author: Lascivious anal tattoo none when they tear and mcl or acl from roid use that is punishment enough (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3017459&forum_id=2#28971593) |
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Date: October 15th, 2015 11:57 AM Author: Vigorous Burgundy Lodge People Who Are Hurt Holy shit you're dun here (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3017459&forum_id=2#28971726) |
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Date: October 15th, 2015 11:36 AM Author: Charismatic Dull Sanctuary Goal In Life cop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3017459&forum_id=2#28971621) |
Date: October 15th, 2015 11:33 AM Author: histrionic violet water buffalo range the reality is that usually when "one guy" is doing it, the whole team is.
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Date: October 15th, 2015 11:37 AM Author: Lascivious anal tattoo LJL @ a major D1 program not having a team full of gear heads (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3017459&forum_id=2#28971625) |
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Date: October 15th, 2015 11:42 AM Author: sadistic lay dingle berry I'm not sure how you want to define 'major'
but I don't think that's necessarily the case everywhere
its just that places where its not the case, are where recruits go to be busts, and where coaches go to be fired |
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Date: October 15th, 2015 11:44 AM Author: Lascivious anal tattoo Bro the system is fraud and lies. Even with proper nutrition 22 year old men just simply can't be 6'3 240lbs 12%bf. I know for a fact they all do it. A school like University of Richmond will have their cross country team get tested up and down the whole year meanwhile the University Alabama might have their kicker tested once in 2 years. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3017459&forum_id=2#28971656) |
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Date: October 15th, 2015 11:40 AM Author: sadistic lay dingle berry I suspect that's the case too
in some places certain behaviors get normalized, and in other places they don't
taboos exist in some places and don't in other places |
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Date: October 15th, 2015 11:44 AM Author: Naked site preventive strike Wisconsin basketball comes to mind immediately if you want to talk about taboos not existing at certain schools. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3017459&forum_id=2#28971657) |
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Date: October 15th, 2015 11:47 AM Author: sadistic lay dingle berry why is that? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3017459&forum_id=2#28971670) |
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Date: October 15th, 2015 11:48 AM Author: Naked site preventive strike they seem to outperform their recruiting in line with the football team out performing its recruiting.
it would certainly make sense for the two to run in parallel, no? |
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Date: October 15th, 2015 11:50 AM Author: sadistic lay dingle berry got you,
yeah, that's the first school I think of if I was guessing a place where 'everyone' was doing it |
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Date: October 15th, 2015 11:59 AM Author: histrionic violet water buffalo range here is the thing. most places have varsity weight rooms. once it's in the room, it's going all up and down the sports that split weight room time. ie...the wrestlers, hockey players and football players will have the same time frames for team lifts that overlap. once one does and guys see huge lifts, it's a wrap. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3017459&forum_id=2#28971740) |
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Date: October 15th, 2015 12:10 PM Author: Naked site preventive strike i could see that being the case. maybe not if a few guys are using, but there is surely a tipping point. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3017459&forum_id=2#28971803) |
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Date: October 15th, 2015 12:00 PM Author: sadistic lay dingle berry fwiw - you familiar with this Ted Kaczynski piece of literature http://www.sacredfools.org/crimescene/casefiles/s2/shipoffoolsstory.htm ??
that's how I feel when I hear you talk about deflategate
the more interesting question is how Aaron Hernandez went from failing several marijuana tests at Florida to apparently tweaking out of his mind 24/7 on angle dust while he was a Patriot, yet, never had a problems with the NFL drug test
or how this guy https://www.google.com/search?q=tom+brady+draft+combine+photo&biw=1072&bih=465&tbm=isch&imgil=9NbtvN2nB0TCiM%253A%253BxfMD-OUf37_9qM%253Bhttp%25253A%25252F%25252Fwww.cbssports.com%25252Fnfl%25252Feye-on-football%25252F25070049%25252Flook-tom-brady-was-really-really-bad-at-the-nfl-combine-in-2000&source=iu&pf=m&fir=9NbtvN2nB0TCiM%253A%252CxfMD-OUf37_9qM%252C_&usg=__gVoLfP0Dj_nsMCsOs-MijiNu9BQ%3D&ved=0CDQQyjdqFQoTCOig-afsxMgCFUL9HgodUvcMIQ&ei=eM0fVuiEKML6e9Lus4gC#imgrc=9NbtvN2nB0TCiM%3A&usg=__gVoLfP0Dj_nsMCsOs-MijiNu9BQ%3D suddenly had one of the stronger arms in the league |
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Date: October 15th, 2015 12:08 PM Author: Naked site preventive strike CR
Remember, the NFL is DESIGNED TO MAKE SUCCESSFUL TEAMS COME BACK TO EARTH. Even among teams with top 5 quarterbacks, they come down to Earth.
I've said this about baseball's efforts to clean up the game repeatedly: if you aren't going to (a) rip up contracts and ask for money back when a player tests positive and (b) vacate wins and titles for teams when the have cheating players or are cheating, then where is the real incentive not to cheat?
I mean shit, if I'm a Dominican ball player living in poverty, and I finally get to the big leagues, I'm more than willing to get on the juice for a year or two to score a big contract. Once I get that, WORST CASE i lose 50 games of salary and start sucking. But who cares cause I have $60 million. |
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Date: October 15th, 2015 12:12 PM Author: sadistic lay dingle berry yeah (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3017459&forum_id=2#28971812) |
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Date: October 15th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: Naked site preventive strike shit like that bothers me a lot more with the leagues, because the whole league is so $$$ driven that there is an incentive to cover it up.
at least in something like the olympics you have different national committees keeping others honest to a degree. |
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Date: October 15th, 2015 12:29 PM Author: Splenetic Curious Tanning Salon Quadroon (a) and (b) make a lot of sense (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3017459&forum_id=2#28971885) |
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Date: October 16th, 2015 11:46 AM Author: fighting factory reset button Brady never had a particularly strong arm; his deep ball accuracy has always been a weakness. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3017459&forum_id=2#28978883) |
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Date: October 15th, 2015 11:48 AM Author: histrionic violet water buffalo range we used to go wrestle at places and it was all or none deal. either the whole team had backne or they didn't. "dirty mats?" "yeah, bro...dirty mats". (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3017459&forum_id=2#28971675) |
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Date: October 15th, 2015 11:48 AM Author: Naked site preventive strike OUT the schools (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3017459&forum_id=2#28971683) |
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Date: October 15th, 2015 11:49 AM Author: histrionic violet water buffalo range PENN and Cornell for starters. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3017459&forum_id=2#28971684) |
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Date: October 15th, 2015 11:50 AM Author: Naked site preventive strike I was going to guess cornell. Never liked Rob Kohl to be honest.
I'd also suspect Minny. |
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Date: October 15th, 2015 11:51 AM Author: histrionic violet water buffalo range Lock Haven.
Rider.
Rutgers.
as to B1G...safe to assume they ALL DO. |
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Date: October 15th, 2015 12:00 PM Author: Naked site preventive strike Not my Hawks!
Perhaps Edinboro?
Rutgers in interesting, since they are a perennial underachiever. |
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Date: October 15th, 2015 12:01 PM Author: histrionic violet water buffalo range it was up and down the EIWA. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3017459&forum_id=2#28971752) |
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Date: October 15th, 2015 12:10 PM Author: razzle drab marketing idea cumskin The not so well kept secret for years has been that Roids were the real reason for Stanford's turnaround under Harbaugh and Shaw. Look at how tough and physical Michigan is all of a sudden. It's more than just "attitude."
USC also had an out of control roid culture under Pete Carroll. He recruited the Ting brothers because their father was the steroid doctor who supplied the team with their gear.
I'm sure every school has a handful of guys using, but some places make it an all-in type of culture. The ones who do it the best are the ones you see in the top-10 every season. |
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Date: October 15th, 2015 12:16 PM Author: sadistic lay dingle berry that explains the real world better than any other explanation I've heard
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the real question is whether Michigan's prior struggles disprove the 'everyone does it' narrative |
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Date: October 16th, 2015 11:41 AM Author: Naked site preventive strike http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/13893353/how-michigan-wolverines-got-good-fast-jim-harbaugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3017459&forum_id=2#28978861) |
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Date: October 15th, 2015 12:18 PM Author: Naked site preventive strike So did USC's steroid culture leave with Pete Carroll? Seems like it would be ingrained by that point, along with the addiction to winning and $$$.
It would also certainly explain the turnarounds at SF and Seattle, particularly on defense. In fact, I wonder if PED's have a bigger impact on defense than on offense. |
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Date: October 15th, 2015 12:29 PM Author: razzle drab marketing idea cumskin Haden, believe it or not, actually did make it a priority to clean that program up after the trail of slime left by Carroll and Mike Garrett. USC's steroid usage probably reverted to that of a normal college football program, as opposed to a full fledged team sanctioned steroid factory.
I don't know how things really work in the NFL with regard to testing. I know that for years the PED of choice was HGH because the NFL didn't have a reliable test for it, but I think that's changed. NFL testing seems somewhat legit if stars like Antonio Gates are getting nailed, but I'm sure there are tons of players that are one step ahead of the testers.
Also, I think Carroll and Harbaugh are actually good coaches so that accounts for much of their success as well. |
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Date: October 15th, 2015 12:33 PM Author: sadistic lay dingle berry see I buy that, and it makes me feel like a complete sucker for following this shit at all
some place have ethical people in certain spots that put at least checks on that sort of thing
and basically the key to winning, is getting rid of all those people, or not inadvertently hiring one |
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Date: October 15th, 2015 12:38 PM Author: razzle drab marketing idea cumskin "some place have ethical people in certain spots that put at least checks on that sort of thing
and basically the key to winning, is getting rid of all those people, or not inadvertently hiring one"
Bingo. "Winning the right way" = embarrassing losses and three-year tenures. |
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Date: October 15th, 2015 12:40 PM Author: Naked site preventive strike right.
and that kind of job pressure, plus the amount of money CFB coaches can earn, lends itself to cheating.
because, again, if you don't cheat at a big program and are mediocre, you're out on your ass. which isn't much worse than getting caught and being out on your ass. but if you don't get caught...$$$$ |
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Date: October 15th, 2015 12:35 PM Author: razzle drab marketing idea cumskin " In fact, I wonder if PED's have a bigger impact on defense than on offense."
Front 7 and o-line. If you control the lines of scrimmage, you control the game. Just look at how Stanford has gotten it done the past seven years. Mostly ground and pound from a pro-set. Goes totally against the current spread offense convention. |
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Date: October 15th, 2015 12:42 PM Author: Naked site preventive strike you don't think PEDs are hugely helpful for corners? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3017459&forum_id=2#28971959) |
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Date: October 15th, 2015 1:20 PM Author: Charismatic Dull Sanctuary Goal In Life Harbaugh must have changed his mind:
http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1987-06-11/sports/8702130163_1_athletes-and-body-builders-anabolic-steroids-pat-jacobs |
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Date: October 15th, 2015 1:41 PM Author: sadistic lay dingle berry ``I was shocked to find out how many high school kids are on them just to look bigger and faster. When some pro scouts said their teams were interested in me, they made a point of adding, `If you test positive for cocaine or marijuana, you`re gone.` Then they made it clear taking steroids is a decision that`s up to the players.``
good find |
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Date: October 15th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: Tantric potus titcop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3017459&forum_id=2#28971840) |
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Date: October 15th, 2015 12:28 PM Author: Splenetic Curious Tanning Salon Quadroon the op refers to the ncaa and the schools doing the testing. surely, it must just be the ncaa? the schools have very little incentive to catch cheaters. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3017459&forum_id=2#28971877) |
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Date: October 15th, 2015 12:37 PM Author: sadistic lay dingle berry I've never heard of a school suspending a player for steroids, have you?
(every once in a while I hear 'team rules' which is nebulous enough that who knows what that means, and every once in a while you hear they got suspended for pot) |
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Date: October 16th, 2015 12:01 PM Author: Arrogant Crusty Partner 95%+ Have juiced (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3017459&forum_id=2#28979002) |
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Date: October 16th, 2015 12:29 PM Author: sadistic lay dingle berry Do you think that most university presidents know/think that 95% of the football players at their school are juicing?
how bout the ADs?
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hypothetically, Harbaugh meets with the President and AD last year prior to getting hired:
"guys, its pretty obvious what the problem here is, only like 50% of the players are juicing, and you have a culture here where the clean players feel all high and mighty, hire me and I'll fix that in no time, we'll get that percentage up to where it should be, right around 95%, and we'll chase off that other 5% and get them to transfer, freeing up those schollys to give to other people who we can convince to become steroid users"
if he says this, do they hire him? do they offer him > $5 million a year? |
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Date: July 26th, 2018 5:37 PM Author: Flatulent Sex Offender Cot dayum this is scholarship. Also provides a very convincing (though likely not complete) explanation for why the LOLnghorns have been fucking terrible for a decade. Back in Mack Brown's day it was blatantly obvious that they were not getting tested for any of the drugs they openly used all over the place in public. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3017459&forum_id=2#36503140) |
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Date: July 26th, 2018 5:50 PM Author: Naked site preventive strike Barack Carcetti tp is a top poaster. One of my favorites (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3017459&forum_id=2#36503255) |