The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
|
 |
 
|
1 in 1000 chance of nuclear war this year?
Poast new message in this thread
Date: April 19th, 2022 9:15 PM Author: plum azn High or low? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5088656&forum_id=2#44369893) |
Date: April 19th, 2022 9:16 PM Author: Metal philosopher-king low (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5088656&forum_id=2#44369900) |
 |
Date: April 19th, 2022 9:19 PM Author: plum azn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5088656&forum_id=2#44369912) |
|
Date: December 26th, 2024 5:38 PM Author: ,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,...,.,,;.., (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5088656&forum_id=2#48489409) |
|
Date: April 19th, 2022 9:19 PM Author: stubborn knife french chef C’mon bro it’s much higher than that (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5088656&forum_id=2#44369910) |
|
Date: April 19th, 2022 9:20 PM Author: plum azn What would you put it at? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5088656&forum_id=2#44369916) |
|
Date: April 19th, 2022 9:22 PM Author: stubborn knife french chef Given current events I think the use of a tactical nuke in Eastern Europe this year is probably more like 1 in 20. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5088656&forum_id=2#44369922) |
|
Date: April 19th, 2022 9:23 PM Author: plum azn At the very least 2 nukes would be used. Both sides. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5088656&forum_id=2#44369932) |
|
Date: April 19th, 2022 9:23 PM Author: Abusive insanely creepy dilemma cuckoldry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5088656&forum_id=2#44369934) |
|
Date: April 19th, 2022 9:31 PM Author: stubborn knife french chef I’m not a nuclear war theory masterman but I’m not sure if a tactical nuke implies the MAD doctrine. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5088656&forum_id=2#44369990) |
|
Date: April 19th, 2022 9:45 PM Author: Diverse demanding pisswyrm It would very likely start the Big One I don't remember what the US policy is for it but the Russians have stated that they would retaliate in kind for a strike like that |
|
Date: April 20th, 2022 8:03 AM Author: stubborn knife french chef I was assuming it would be a Russian first strike in Ukraine or Poland. They are the ones being painted into a corner rn. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5088656&forum_id=2#44371690) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2022 12:36 PM Author: plum azn There is no US policy. Though it is likely that the US will retaliate with a nuclear strike on Belarus if Poland is hit with a nuclear strike. If the US stands down then every European country will abandon Ukraine and even urge Ukrainians to surrender. It's crazy but Washington is even willing to use a nuclear weapon just to preserve dominance in Europe. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5088656&forum_id=2#44372911) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2022 1:10 PM Author: stubborn knife french chef Our leaders are indeed insane. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5088656&forum_id=2#44373103) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2022 1:54 AM Author: plum azn 1. NATO sends large numbers of troops to Ukraine. 2. Russia uses tactical nuke against Poland. 3. US uses tactical nuke against Belarus. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5088656&forum_id=2#44371160) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2022 4:50 PM Author: Vivacious Chest-beating Messiness Space It was a little over 50 years between WWII and the Berlin Wall coming down, and things were a lot worse than this for much of it. I think it's at least 1/100, with only the Cuban missile crisis being in the neighborhood of 1/20. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5088656&forum_id=2#44374451) |
|
Date: April 19th, 2022 9:46 PM Author: self-centered address what will this do to my stocks!? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5088656&forum_id=2#44370066) |
|
Date: April 19th, 2022 9:52 PM Author: Diverse demanding pisswyrm That's on the lower end unfortunately We're not quite at Cuban Missile Crisis levels with this yet but if we do keep at it we likely will get there and this time with no Dean Rusk to take the reigns from our senile POTUS |
|
Date: April 20th, 2022 12:37 PM Author: plum azn What's your estimate? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5088656&forum_id=2#44372912) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2022 4:58 PM Author: Diverse demanding pisswyrm I don't have one atm and would prefer not to have to think about the long shadow that incompetent political blunders leading to all out genocidal war casts over our lives (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5088656&forum_id=2#44374489) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2022 12:37 PM Author: Alcoholic stag film mexican Ratchet and Clank taught me how dope tactical nukes are (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5088656&forum_id=2#44372915) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2022 12:39 PM Author: plum azn Major points? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5088656&forum_id=2#44372932) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2022 12:47 PM Author: very tactful gay wizard same but MW2 also nigger (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5088656&forum_id=2#44372983) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2022 12:38 PM Author: Submissive racy newt Is the use of one tactical nuke enough to make it a nuclear war? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5088656&forum_id=2#44372918) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2022 12:40 PM Author: plum azn Yes. At least one tactical nuke = nuclear war for this thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5088656&forum_id=2#44372940) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2022 12:53 PM Author: Submissive racy newt In that case it's 1/3 or 1/2. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5088656&forum_id=2#44373006) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2022 1:08 PM Author: plum azn 33% chance of nuclear war is pretty bad. If that's true there's like a 1% chance of a full exchange. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5088656&forum_id=2#44373093) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2022 1:15 PM Author: Submissive racy newt There's 100-150K men fighting like 20 miles away from the Russian border. Russia has been exposed to be a paper tiger in front of the whole world, it has lost a lot of face/credibility. They are known to have an escalate to deescalate nuclear deterrence strategy, probably b/c they're a paper tiger. If the West/NATO is a little too giving with weapons/support and Ukraine hits back a little too hard, a tactical nuke is an appealing option Russia has in its arsenal to try to end this conflict before it spirals out of control. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5088656&forum_id=2#44373136) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2022 1:23 PM Author: Cruel-hearted narrow-minded pocket flask I think they will consider the fact that using a tactical nuke likely leads to the obliteration of Russia. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5088656&forum_id=2#44373171) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2022 1:24 PM Author: plum azn Would that be worth it if it meant even one US city is destroyed? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5088656&forum_id=2#44373182) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2022 1:31 PM Author: Cruel-hearted narrow-minded pocket flask yeah (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5088656&forum_id=2#44373227) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2022 1:23 PM Author: plum azn Russia hits Polish base with tactical nuke to stop NATO counterattack in Ukraine. US hits Belarus base with a tactical nuke. What happens next? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5088656&forum_id=2#44373175) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2022 1:32 PM Author: Cruel-hearted narrow-minded pocket flask I think if Russia used a nuke in any circumstance we'd immediately flatten Moscow (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5088656&forum_id=2#44373238) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2022 1:40 PM Author: plum azn That's impossible to imagine as the first response because a US city would get destroyed in retaliation. Washington would want to fight a nuclear war to maintain credibility and keep the nuclear war as limited as possible. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5088656&forum_id=2#44373281) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2022 1:45 PM Author: Cruel-hearted narrow-minded pocket flask I'm not sure we can still assume your premise is true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5088656&forum_id=2#44373302) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2022 1:46 PM Author: plum azn That's not a real response. No one is simply going to assume the Russian nuclear arsenal doesn't work. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5088656&forum_id=2#44373313) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2022 1:53 PM Author: Cruel-hearted narrow-minded pocket flask Maybe US intelligence doesn't have to "assume" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5088656&forum_id=2#44373362) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2022 1:56 PM Author: plum azn Well this has gone in a pointless direction. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5088656&forum_id=2#44373387) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2022 4:57 PM Author: Vivacious Chest-beating Messiness Space We'd respond in kind while frantically trying to deescalate. No way would we flatten Moscow as our first response, especially when they have the ability to flatten DC (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5088656&forum_id=2#44374484) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2022 4:53 PM Author: Vivacious Chest-beating Messiness Space Nah man. They'd just use a MOAB type bomb. I think theirs is Father of All Bombs, so I guess it's the FOAB. Using a tactical nuke rather than a FOAB is all downside, no upside. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5088656&forum_id=2#44374466) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2022 12:49 PM Author: Cruel-hearted narrow-minded pocket flask 1/1000 sounds about right
The oligarchs won't let Putin use a nuke |
|
Date: April 20th, 2022 1:12 PM Author: plum azn They've been sidelined since the 2000s. In February you might have said they wouldn't allow Putin to launch a full scale invasion. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5088656&forum_id=2#44373119) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2022 1:21 PM Author: Cruel-hearted narrow-minded pocket flask LJL they are why Putin is still in power.
The fact is there are too many rich and powerful people in Russia that don't want their lavish lifestyles disrupted by something as needless as nuclear holocaust. |
|
Date: April 20th, 2022 1:27 PM Author: plum azn Putin did not seize their wealth for fear of consequences because of strong backlash from the West but did confiscate the wealth of one of them who stepped out of line politically. He does not depend on them for power. Since the 2000s there has been an equilibrium with the oligarchs who were a Western creation of the 1990s before he took power. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5088656&forum_id=2#44373199) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2022 1:11 PM Author: Razzle swollen theatre 50/50. either it will happen or it won't (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5088656&forum_id=2#44373106) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2022 1:12 PM Author: stubborn knife french chef (stats masterman) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5088656&forum_id=2#44373118) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2022 4:46 PM Author: Vivacious Chest-beating Messiness Space I'd say it's more like 1/200 this year, but 1/1000 is pretty reasonable too (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5088656&forum_id=2#44374428) |