The party’s secret weapon: Trump voters who have no idea who the candidates for the upper chamber are.

By James Johnson and Callum Hunter

Oct. 24, 2024 at 1:06 pm ET

Two Democratic senators up for election touted their links to Donald Trump last week. Pennsylvania’s Bob Casey released an ad declaring he had “sided with Trump” on trade and tariffs, while an ad from Wisconsin’s Tammy Baldwin boasted that she “got President Trump to back her Made in America bill.”

One conclusion from these ads is that Mr. Trump is in the ascendancy in these states. He might be. But the ads also speak to a hidden dynamic that may hand the Senate to the GOP. Candidates in Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are fighting for the support of undecided voters. These voters tend to account for between 5% and 10% of states’ electorates, enough to sway the result of a close race. These crucial voters look a lot more like Mr. Trump’s supporters than Kamala Harris’s.

According to our latest Pennsylvania poll, 51% of undecided Senate voters intend to vote for Mr. Trump, compared with 23% for Ms. Harris. This pattern replicates itself across our internal research. In Ohio, 78% of undecided voters in the Senate race would opt for Mr. Trump, in Montana 59%, and in Arizona 77%. Overall, twice as many undecided voters in Senate races back Mr. Trump over Ms. Harris.

Democratic and Republican Senate candidates alike, including Sens. Casey and Baldwin, are scrabbling for those Trump-supporting undecided voters. But Democrats’ efforts may be doomed to fail.

Steve, a 58-year-old factory worker from Pittsburgh, told us in a focus group two weeks ago that he’s definitely going for Mr. Trump but has no preference in the Senate race. He seldom votes in midterm elections, and he doesn’t know the two candidates. But when the day comes, he’ll vote for the Republican, because “that’s what Trump would want.”

Steve and voters like him tend to be older, low-information, less-educated Trump voters. Come Election Day, we expect them to vote Republican down the ballot.

Current polls don’t reflect this likelihood. Mr. Trump leads in swing states, but several Republican Senate candidates are running behind. RealClearPolitics has Republican Bernie Moreno trailing by 0.6 point in Ohio, David McCormick by 1.9 in Pennsylvania, Sam Brown by 5.3 in Nevada and so on.

In our internal polls of Ohio, Montana and Pennsylvania, more than 60% of undecided Senate voters lean toward the Republican candidate when pushed for an answer. That puts the Republican candidate in these states in the lead or within reach of victory.

When we run our machine-learning model, which predicts how undecided voters will vote by surveying their policy priorities, demographics and more, we see the same dynamic. In Ohio, these undecided voters break 65% for Mr. Moreno, putting him on course for a clear win.

In Britain’s July election, our model performed much better than our rivals’ because we accounted for undecided voters. In the 2024 election, undecided voters could take the GOP from a 51-seat majority to a comfortable 53, or even more. This hidden dynamic will guarantee the Senate for the GOP.

Mr. Johnson is a co-founder of and Mr. Hunter a senior data scientist at J.L. Partners, a polling firm.

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/expect-the-gop-to-win-big-in-the-senate-secret-weapon-trump-voters-election-578d3764?st=QNnuMm

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617916&forum_id=2#48238748)

In 2024, there is a clear downballot/topline distinction. If GOP hadn't conspired with the Dems to indict Trump to try to help DeSantis, people wouldn't be as inspired to vote downballot Dem as a 'check on Trump'. See Bush '88 Iran-Contra/Clinton '96 Whitewater/Clinton '16 Emailgate.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617916&forum_id=2#48238778)