Cliffs: if you think FL results pouring in don't mean anything yet, then you must be smarter than all the Republican and Democrat operatives crunching numbers in FL right now, the firewall for D+ needed by election day is being breached by the middle of this week, and if you think overperformance in FL doesn't translate to rust belt improvement you're mistaken, it's more likely Trump outperforms in rust belt this year than FL, Dems are finding out by middle of this week that election may be lost...

What he's talking about are trackers like this able to give:

Democrat:

2879992 (40.89%)

63.93% of 2016 Clinton votes

109.51% of 2016 Democrat EV

2016 total 4/4 voters:1596467

2020 4/4 voters (est):1269533

Remaining 4/4 voters (est):326934 (20.48%)

Difference with R: -260945

Republican:

2648829 (37.61%)

57.36% of 2016 Trump votes

104.56% of 2016 Republican EV

2016 total 4/4 voters:1903132

2020 4/4 voters (est):1315253

Remaining 4/4 voters (est):587879 (30.89%)

Difference with D: +260945

NPA:

1424085 (20.22%)

110.86% of 2016 NPA EV

2016 total 4/4 voters:572671

2020 4/4 voters (est):388529

Remaining 4/4 voters (est):184142 (32.15%)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664448&forum_id=2#41205034)

It's important to understand what he explains in the video which is what I've shown before from some analysis i found - which is over/under performance by party vs the last election performance in FL has perfectly correlated with over/under performance in both MI and PA in every election since well before 2000s I think - this is what Gelman's criticism of nate silver model was about - that it's absurd to think an increase in performance in a significant way by say flipping a state or doing even better in such a crucial state isn't correlated with over-performance in other areas.

Rural / working class men, not just whites this time , are going to come out and vote for trump on election day in a way we haven't seen since... I dunno but not in my lifetime...

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664448&forum_id=2#41205149)

Thank!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664448&forum_id=2#41205161)

and so if you can't understand what i just said about the youth vote above, and apply this elsewhere - you're just incapable of following any of the discussions here

That you can't comprehend this isn't surprising, but your persistence is

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664448&forum_id=2#41205268)

You should look at the data and not speak generally.

HTFH.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664448&forum_id=2#41205312)

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/523199-new-voters-surge-to-the-polls

So young voters make up a larger SHARE of the early voting electorate. Not just absolute numbers. Isn't that contrary to what you've been telling us?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664448&forum_id=2#41207579)

Young voters make up a larger share of the *early vote* electorate right now than in 2016, but eg 30-39's increase in voter share is even larger

The reason youth vote makes up larger share of the *early vote* electorate than 2016, is b/c 2016 EV was a selective group of early voters, there wasn't this massive nationwide early voting effort last time

The most you could say is that while both parties are voting when their leaders have told them to, youth voters have not shifted their voting behavior to vote early with the rest of the dems, and so are 9% of electorate when they were 19% of final share of electorate

Since the remaining voter pool will be disproportionately conservative, they need to be over-performing right now, not under (eg females are over-performing and are like 55% of all early voters, maybe less by now).

Given Universities will be closed, most young ppl wear masks while walking their dogs outside by themselves, and the messaging from both sides, I don't see a huge wave of youth who are planning to vote with the highly republican pool on ED, but we'll find out soon enough...

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664448&forum_id=2#41209038)

“ which is over/under performance by party vs the last election performance in FL has perfectly correlated with over/under performance in both MI and PA in every election since well before 2000s”

YOU CANNOT COMPARE THIS ELECTION EV WITH PAST ELECTION EV.

Covid is driving everyone, reptiles included, to the polls early. The percentage of early vs ED voting is going to be different for republicans too. Republicans are voting early which is why dem leads aren’t much. My reptile neighborhood has lines every day because no one wants to vote on ED due to fraudvirus.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664448&forum_id=2#41208999)

This makes no sense. Does a huge line for EV have less chance of poz than a huge line on ED? I

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664448&forum_id=2#41209030)

https://imgur.com/a/eGXi8HG

What I mean is, if Trump runs away w/ FL which is looking like a very high likelihood, then it's worth noting that both MI and PA have perfectly correlated with FL in their margin movements since 1968

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664448&forum_id=2#41209061)

Look - we have a recent example to calibrate this kind of shit against, Obama's victories..... And what does a campaign for a Democrat running +6 that actually believes it's running +6 look like? It looks like Obama campaigning in MO and Iowa in the final week of the campaign..... with Mccain in indiana and palin in iowa... (romney campaign did some retarded shit i don't know wtf that was about) - it does not look like having to almost exclusively attempt to turnout your most high margin base of support , blacks, in tipping point states - Trump is campaigning in many blue areas of the rust belt - Biden is still trying to turn out blacks in philly and doing black radio station interviews in detroit

There will be some mix of senate campaigning b/c there are cases like iowa or AZ where the senators are running a few points behind the potus so trump has to try and drag them over finish line with him

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664448&forum_id=2#41205226)

Be sure to switch to all early votes on the menu bar at the bottom.

It's down under 202K now btw

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664448&forum_id=2#41209305)

2. http://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664474&mc=6&forum_id=2

why and how does this dood say "everyone agrees gop will outperform on ED"

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664448&forum_id=2#41205310)

In 2016 more whites didn't vote than all minorities that did.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664448&forum_id=2#41207531)

- newly registered voters have an absurdly high propensity to turnout to vote, not surprisingly

- There are trackers, like targetsmart, online trackers using similar voter files etc, that can tell not just demographics of voters on voter files, but whether the person who voted is a first time voter, infrequent voter, frequent voter, or supervoter (super is voted in last 4/4 elections, frequent 3/4, ...)

Of course we don't know anything for sure until ED - but if there's any guaranteed theme on the right right now, what is it? IMO it's distrust of the media, and distrust of the system more generally. ED is a ritual for many voters, and this especially for the right it's sort of a 'fuck you' against the media, polls, ballot stuffers, politicians who undermined election norms, etc

In varying margins - voters have told this story to pollsters on literally every survey this election cycle.... that dems will vote early / vbm, Rs on ED / maybe IPEV

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664448&forum_id=2#41209287)

The first is that we know Rs win ED based on last few elections at a minimum - just look at all the articles from 2016 where they're pumping out stories how Trump is screwed in NC / PA / AZ early voting

The second component is that we know from polls / surveys - even though Biden +8 , Biden +15 is complete flame - this finding has been incredibly stable throughout polling this year, that Dems by huge margins say they're going to vote before ED / vbm, and that Rs say they'll vote on ED

This is b/c voters are following their party's messaging - Trump told his voters that dems were going to be shady w/ mail ballots, and to vote in person (while secretly pushing vbm to some seniors etc who usually do)

Dems have been going all in for 7 months on covid hysteria and scaring the shit out of their voters, and it WORKED, they said they're going to vote by mail / early vote in huge disproportionality

So this finding has been consistent in polls (but one reason polls are flame is b/c the ratio you see in D:R 'voted already' in these polls doesn't match the actual voted already, and also by intention when do you plan to vote it's over half of dems plan to vote before ED in these polls, Rs are like 60-65 / 40-35 on ED

So the disproportionate margins on ED are expected to be even more extreme this year

There are also questions from gallup about how worried are you by covid in planning to vote or something like that - 20% or so of Dems say they're not concerned or won't be affected by covid in terms of how they vote, like 60-80% for Rs

This is also validated by the tracking stats I posted in OP - where they can see in many of these states that have party registrations that the number of supervoters (voters who voted in 4 out of last 4 elections) remaining for Dems is basically depleted, whereas Rs have large banks of supervoters left - these are basically guaranteed to show up and vote so useful to track

So it's:

- Each party told their voters to vote at different times

- Last few elections we've seen this happen

- likely voters have told us this will happen, robustly across surveys

- we can see this happening by looking at supervoters

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664448&forum_id=2#41205955)

Polling this week still indicates 50% of respondents saying they will vote in person on election day, but that would mean like 90+% turn out overall, which would be absurd. 6M have already voted and there are still 2M mail in ballots outstanding. Lots of other craziness, like 70% of votes cast are by people over age 50.

It just seems like Election Day is a total crapshoot. But it seems silly to me to think that 5M+ would vote ED and the GOP would bank a half million plus vote advantage over Dem on ED given how many votes are already cast unless you had something specifically weird like Dems who cross parties and independents that lean GOP are also more likely to vote on ED. Totally possible that we will see all sorts of weird details when all votes are cast, but whatever the case it just seems like complete guesswork today on top of the noise of selecting the most motivated and also most idle supporters to try to make a prediction based on overall EV turnout. Half of the registered GOP in the state has already voted early and there are still like a million GOP ballots outstanding. Clearly any poll saying 50% of GOP will vote ED is mathematically flawed.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664448&forum_id=2#41206610)

It will be lower. Everyone is voting early compared to last cycle.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664448&forum_id=2#41209024)

That's the entire point

All these polls badly fail basic validation against what we saw in early voting. For example - the poll sample is supposed to be representative of the electorate, and within this sample, there's a subsample that said they've already voted ( polls from 1-2 weeks ago, say), and this split has been like 3:1 D:R on a state level. The real D:R of the ACTUAL subsample of the ACTUAL electorate was nowhere near 3:1, so at a minimum this raises serious red flags as to how representative the sample is when the subsamples don't even come close to matching.

My point is that we have no reason to believe turnout will increase by anything close to that - first time voters / infrequent voters aren't abnormally high, youth / minorities / marginal voters are down, and they are usually predictive of higher turnout. What reason do we have to expect a huge surge of all these first time voters, youth , blacks etc to vote on ED along with the most disproportionately conservative voting pool? Of course it could happen, but it's worrisome for Dems that these groups didn't vote with the bulk of Democratic voter base in VBM / EV....

The ED split in FL was like 53 / 47 R/D in 2016 (can't remember exactly) - and this year it will be even more extreme, but less volume. It's not hard to verify that voters are following what their parties told them - Rs distrust mail ballots way more, so have started voting in person early up to ED, and will vote on ED even more disproportionately this year, almost everyone on the Dem side crunching the numbers believes this - and are setting similar thresholds

It's not a coincidence that Dems were up huge in VBM, and as IPEV started Rs are improving their margins by the day, and you have things like:

Remaining 4/4 voters (est):287027 (17.98%)

Remaining 4/4 voters (est):529634 (27.83%)

Of course ED will be somewhat of a crapshoot - but the story is unfolding in a way exactly how each party expected....

Of course it's possible that Dems would see some huge wave of marginal / low turnout voters on ED, that just seems unlikely - and all of this aligns with the behaviorals I talked about 2 weeks ago w/ what groups were enthusiastic according to gallup internals, blacks and youth enthusiasm was down big time, and you can tell by campaign behavior - what is Biden spending his time doing? trying to drive blacks and youngs to the polls....

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664448&forum_id=2#41209259)

Yeah I agree - he seems really sane / trustworthy relative to the sheer insanity right now of any media personality - and it does seem like a sanity check, being like hey - forget everything (all the propaganda we're bombarded with, polls etc) , just clear your mind of that bs - if you know an incumbent candidate is going to win Ohio very easily, and runaway w/ FL possibly w/ 100k more votes this time (maybe more) , is this candidate *really* losing ground in all those other states..... that seems hard to believe by our basic intuition. The media has done a number on us all w/ these polls / narratives and everything

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4664448&forum_id=2#41209309)