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Trump reaches new high in 538 odds
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Date: September 17th, 2024 3:31 PM Author: ''"'''"""'''"''''" https://x.com/iapolls2022/status/1836118037352571195?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5596534&forum_id=2#48100116) |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 3:33 PM Author: VoteRepublican (A true Chad!! where's your gf/wifew?) its Trump win dont look at polls they are worse than meaningless (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5596534&forum_id=2#48100120) |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 3:33 PM Author: ''"'''"""'''"''''" were they meaningless in 2020? 2016? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5596534&forum_id=2#48100123) |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 3:35 PM Author: VoteRepublican (A true Chad!! where's your gf/wifew?) polls r literally worse at predicting than random guess (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5596534&forum_id=2#48100135) |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 3:36 PM Author: MASE Extremely. Let's get into it if you want. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5596534&forum_id=2#48100136) |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 3:38 PM Author: ''"'''"""'''"''''" Ok let’s start with 2016. What was the problem with the polls then?
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2016/trump-vs-clinton |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 3:48 PM Author: MASE Out of the 54 polls going back to early October, 12 correctly predicting the result OR underestimated Clinton. Every other poll missed by an average of 3-4 points, some missing by 10+(!)
Nate Silver's average managed to blunt a lot of the impact of these polls on the average. But it was clear that a lot polling outlets had insane D+ samples that threw off their polls. |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 4:11 PM Author: LathamTouchedMe Isn't that the purpose of aggregating the polls? The aggregate of the national polls was pretty spot on for 2016 and 2020. There weren't that many states outside the polling margin misses. I think only Wisc had a big miss in 2020 under the RCP averages.
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Date: September 17th, 2024 3:50 PM Author: peeface well yes, infamously so. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5596534&forum_id=2#48100195) |
Date: September 17th, 2024 3:33 PM Author: '"'"'"''" Why is Nate Silver's model the outlier? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5596534&forum_id=2#48100119) |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 3:33 PM Author: completely deranged lunatic He's only half Jewish while all the other ones are concocted by full on kikes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5596534&forum_id=2#48100124) |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 3:34 PM Author: ''"'''"""'''"''''" He’s so traumatized from getting 2016 wrong that he’s making his model very pro Trump so that he’s either right or happy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5596534&forum_id=2#48100127) |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 3:37 PM Author: MASE He throws in every fucking poll (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5596534&forum_id=2#48100139) |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 3:38 PM Author: '"'"'"''" But you seem to think he's going to be the most accurate? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5596534&forum_id=2#48100145) |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 3:45 PM Author: """'""""'' because he's paid by Thiel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5596534&forum_id=2#48100179) |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 3:48 PM Author: LathamTouchedMe He's definitely got the most complicated model. He has some weird element that's shaving a point off Harris's polling because she didn't get a bounce in the week after her convention. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5596534&forum_id=2#48100189) |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 3:51 PM Author: MASE Based a lot on state polling, which is more accurate. He also has an electoral college probability tracker which is more complicated than RCP's or 538's mere polling average. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5596534&forum_id=2#48100200) |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 3:34 PM Author: Soren "Bob" Odenkierkegaard deja vu from 2016, pollsters learned nothing (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5596534&forum_id=2#48100125) |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 3:35 PM Author: ''"'''"""'''"''''" What was wrong with 2016? Pollsters were more accurate that year than any year in recent history
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2016/trump-vs-clinton |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 3:39 PM Author: MASE RCP 2016 Average: +3.2 Clinton Final 2016 Result: +2.1 Clinton (LOSS)
RCP 2020 Average: +7.2 Biden Final 2020 Result: +4.5 Biden (WIN)
RCP 2024 Average: +2.0 Harris Final 2024 Result: ??? |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 3:40 PM Author: ''"'''"""'''"''''" so the pollsters came within 1.1% in 2016 and accurately predicted the winner in 2020? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5596534&forum_id=2#48100155) |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 3:46 PM Author: MASE Sure, if that's what you're looking at. Question: Who wins the election if Harris has a 2% popular vote lead? Question 2: Is there a reason to believe Harris will get a polling error in her favor this time? |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 3:56 PM Author: MASE Hello? Pls respond (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5596534&forum_id=2#48100226) |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 3:58 PM Author: Trump: Aborted in the first term There has been a polling error against Democrats since Dobbs, so yes. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5596534&forum_id=2#48100239) |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 4:03 PM Author: MASE That's actually the only reasonable thesis I've heard from Dems on this. 2 counters however. 1. A small error towards Dems would still not necessarily be enough to get them the Electoral College. Especially if Harris is really at 2.0 nationally. 2. Trump elections are different than non-Trump elections. Sauceless senate candidates are not comparable. Oh also - pollers are still making the same mistakes they made in 2016 and 2020 by polling unrealistic demographic makeups like D+3 electorates. Uh oh! |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 4:10 PM Author: Trump: Aborted in the first term Since Dobbs, name a single election where Republicans won unexpectedly. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5596534&forum_id=2#48100281) |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 4:11 PM Author: MASE Not sure. Btw, can you answer my question above? If Kamala Harris has a 2% popular vote lead, does that mean she's expected to win? |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 4:14 PM Author: Trump: Aborted in the first term I struggle with the term "expected."
That amount is right at the line where random shit decides it. Weather patterns and such.
40K difference in three states in 2020; 80K difference 2016. Who fucking knows? Either way you way too cocksure about the whole thing. |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 4:19 PM Author: MASE I’m cocksure because Republicans are outpacing Dems in registrations, early voting and state polling by consistently solid margins. In a close election, I would much rather be Trump than Kamala, and this election is looking to be even closer than 2016. But of course, a close election nationally is not a close election in the electoral college. |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 4:29 PM Author: Trump: Aborted in the first term Granted re: registration. Early voting has started exactly nowhere. In what fucking universe is the GOP consistently ahead in state polling? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5596534&forum_id=2#48100353) |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 4:32 PM Author: MASE Early voting - I mean mail in ballot requests. And to be fair, they’re not exactly outpacing them by they are seeing similar numbers or higher than 2020 while Dems are experiencing massive declines.
They’re leading in state polling among outlets that aren’t compromised. |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 4:35 PM Author: Trump: Aborted in the first term Translation: only the polls I like count. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5596534&forum_id=2#48100359) |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 4:39 PM Author: MASE Rasmussen and Trafalger had lower polling errors than the other outlets did 🤷♂️ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5596534&forum_id=2#48100371) |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 4:43 PM Author: Trump: Aborted in the first term You're talking out of your ass.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/ |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 5:37 PM Author: MASE Eat shit faggot: https://ibb.co/L1hmDKN (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5596534&forum_id=2#48100588) |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 4:16 PM Author: LathamTouchedMe Depends on what the EC bias is this year. The modelers like Silver say it's about 2.5%. At 2% she probably loses. Post-debate polls would have her at about 2.5%+. If she keeps getting national polls like she has the past 3 days she might be better than a coin flip. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5596534&forum_id=2#48100306) |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 4:27 PM Author: MASE Sounds like Kamala is betting on at least a 0.5% polling error in her favor to win then. Let’s see if she’s right! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5596534&forum_id=2#48100349) |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 4:45 PM Author: LathamTouchedMe I'd say it's closer to a 0% polling error right now that would get her the win. It's pre-debate polls in the RCP average pulling her down just a smidgen. I think that's pretty much where the betting markets are right now. Very slight edge for Harris.
On another note, the solid senate and gov polls for D's in all of the swing states are a good sign for Harris. I don't believe there's much split-ticket voting anymore. Kari Lake loses AZ by 5+ and trump wins the state? Ironically, it might be shitty GOP brand (trump wannabes) pulling trump down than vice-versa. But that's just my speculation. |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 4:53 PM Author: AI_concubine I recall all the polls and MSM saying Clinton had over a 90% chance of winning (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5596534&forum_id=2#48100417) |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 4:55 PM Author: Trump: Aborted in the first term It was the NYT and Princeton aggregator that said she had a 99% chance. 538 said Trump had a 28% chance. Turns out a .280 hitter gets on base sometimes.
People are just morons and can't think in probabilities. |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 5:28 PM Author: How to derive aut from ism It was 28% to win by the narrowest margin. How probable was the actual outcome on his model? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5596534&forum_id=2#48100534) |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 5:32 PM Author: Trump: Aborted in the first term Any specific outcome would be a less than 2%. The aggregation is the point.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 10:21 PM Author: How to derive aut from ism Okay so what were the odds of him getting AT LEAST 300 EV's? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5596534&forum_id=2#48101937) |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 8:19 PM Author: Do you like my machine or... what if they did? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5596534&forum_id=2#48101379) |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 3:41 PM Author: Zurich is stained How did Nate silver get fired from his own website (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5596534&forum_id=2#48100160) |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 3:43 PM Author: """'""""'' there's no stopping this guy. he is gonna win NY after all, barring massive LIBFRAUD (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5596534&forum_id=2#48100169) |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 4:00 PM Author: peeface driven by a single astroturf polling companying showing her with an 8 point lead? im sold
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Date: September 17th, 2024 4:16 PM Author: How to derive aut from ism Wile E. Coyote never ran out of schemes, either (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5596534&forum_id=2#48100311) |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 5:49 PM Author: .,.,.;.,..,..,.,:.,:,..,..,::,..,:,.,.:,..:.,:.:, Funny how after all the shit do has given Nate Silver he's the only one who's got this one right (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5596534&forum_id=2#48100637) |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 10:24 PM Author: Mainlining the $ecret truth of the univer$e (My "Mahchine" Is 40 Percent "There" in less than 2 weeks) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDQkLF1Vd3o (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5596534&forum_id=2#48101960) |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 10:21 PM Author: Mainlining the $ecret truth of the univer$e (My "Mahchine" Is 40 Percent "There" in less than 2 weeks) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oEDohj5A3-E (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5596534&forum_id=2#48101939) |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 10:23 PM Author: completely deranged lunatic chill thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5596534&forum_id=2#48101954) |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 10:24 PM Author: NPC ThingDoer Poontang Sorry China and Russia (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5596534&forum_id=2#48101956) |