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I think Pennsylvania might be in the midst of becoming a red state long term
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Date: October 25th, 2024 10:09 AM Author: I know that you are from Canada tp Some reasons to believe it's becoming more like Ohio.
So 60% of the population live in Philly/Pitt/Philly suburbs. 40% rural. Obviously the rural are all Trumpmos.
But I think one of the main things is that Philly isn't as shitlib as other shitlib cities. It's not like DC which is full of foaming shitlibs.
Philly is a different animal. It's substantially poorer and more working class than other northeast cities. And the suburbs are more purple.
All it takes is anything less than buckwild enthusiasm from urban and suburban Dems to sink Kamala. And we can already see the early voting is down. If this realignment around class is true and some blacks go for Trump as well as white working class, this might be a coalition that could work together long into the future.
Trump by 2-3 pts plus McCormick by 1 seems very real. PA might have a future as a red state. |
Date: October 25th, 2024 10:12 AM Author: . . ... .. . .. . . . .. . . .. .... . . . .. Explain the governors race against that 100% MAGA Trumpmo that Trump himself campaigned with 4894574 times (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48238550) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 10:15 AM Author: Charles Tyrwhitt Dad The comparison would be Ohio, which has similar enough demographics and has moved from a purple swing state to reliably red state. A good argument can be made that the PA GOP keeps shooting itself with too extremist / unlikeable MAGA candidates (similar to Georgia in recent senate elections, Herschel Walker was a genuine moron). A pleasant centre-left Democrat will defeat a MAGA in Pennsylvania. But if the GOP can get a normal, slightly MAGA but not wacko, candidate through the primaries, it's a much tighter race. Like this year's senate election is shaping up to be.
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Date: October 25th, 2024 10:16 AM Author: I know that you are from Canada tp Mfcr well said (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48238573) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 10:15 AM Author: I know that you are from Canada tp Shapiro is a really talented politician. And change takes time.
Dr. Oz was one of the worst candidates ever. McCormick is the opposite of him.
Things are evolving in real time. MAGA is slightly different than it was before. It's more big tent politics than scorched Earth. Every election is different and unique. |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 10:16 AM Author: .,..,.,.;,.,,:,.,.,::,...,..,:,..;,.., tbf McCormick sucks shit also (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48238572) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 10:17 AM Author: I know that you are from Canada tp U mad? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48238576) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 10:20 AM Author: .,..,.,.;,.,,:,.,.,::,...,..,:,..;,.., that the GOP keeps nominating these zillionaire cumfarters to unsuccessfully try to appeal to mainline cunts? yea kind of. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48238593) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 10:20 AM Author: I know that you are from Canada tp McCormick is extremely smart and relatable wtf (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48238599) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 10:22 AM Author: .,..,.,.;,.,,:,.,.,::,...,..,:,..;,.., I watched the debate with him and Casey and he seemed like a huge fag (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48238605) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 10:32 AM Author: I know that you are from Canada tp He's faggy on Isreal but so is literally every other Republican candidate for Senate. On every other issue he wiped the floor. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48238650) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 10:26 AM Author: Sean South of Garryowen They ran an ad in PA where McCormick mispronounces Yuengling. And they have been pounding the idea that he is an outsider for months ("This is Dave's mansion in Connecticut..."). Casey is a known entity and his family is well-known. Casey is like Bush in Texas. McCormick will lose.
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Date: October 25th, 2024 10:33 AM Author: I know that you are from Canada tp I read that most Pennsylvanians don't remember his dad and that the only demo Casey leads in is 65+
The polls are within a point and Trump is going to carry McCormick across the finish line. |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 10:45 AM Author: Drunkard PA needs the republican equivalent of Federman to run and win. Not rich carpet baggers.
Also, I don’t think I can possible express how corrupt Philly is, how big the democrat machine is in Philly and the burbs, and how shitlib lots of the main line and bucks county are. That being said, TRUMP loves the blacks and Puerto Ricans and I know a lot of both who are voting for him. In particular I think TRUMP will see big gains with Hispanics (most of whom in PA are PRs and to a lesser extent, Dominicans, not Mexicans) because they hate voting for women and won’t vote for Kamala like they did Biden (who they voted for because he was catholic and vaguely blue collar like). Also, PRs hate the illegals and have no incentive to support illegal immigration like some other Hispanics to get family over because they are all citizens.
To put it in perspective, if you drive around the rich areas it is at least 10 to 1 Harris signs over TRUMP, but you do see maybe 1/3 as many McCormick signs as Harris/Casey signs. You go to the boonies it’s 10 to 1 TRUMP signs. |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 10:48 AM Author: I know that you are from Canada tp Crrrr but we are winning this both POTUS and Senate. I believe! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48238729) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 10:49 AM Author: Sean South of Garryowen Chester County has a LOT of Mexicans (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48238734) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 10:55 AM Author: Drunkard True, but few of them are legal. They work the mushroom farms etc. same with Lancaster. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48238770) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 11:45 AM Author: peeface "Casey is like Bush in Texas."
this seems to be the opposite of the point you were trying to make
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Date: October 25th, 2024 11:52 AM Author: Sean South of Garryowen Popular political family (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48239075) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 12:06 PM Author: peeface but rootless cosmopolitans with no ties to Texas or any of the other places they moved to out of political expedience
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Date: October 25th, 2024 12:07 PM Author: I know that you are from Canada tp Not in 15 years (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48239138) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 10:15 AM Author: """'""""'' There it is... the Trumpmo admission that they are the party of dumb proles: "Philly is a different animal. It's substantially poorer and more working class"
As to the substantive analysis. LOL no. At BEST, it will continue to be a purple state. The only parts of the state that are growing are ALL trending blue. Philly area, Lancaster, Cumberland, etc.
And The ONLY time PA is competitive is when Trump himself is on the ballot. Cons have lost EVERY statewide election in the last 6 years. |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 10:17 AM Author: .,..,.,.;,.,,:,.,.,::,...,..,:,..;,.., you are a 55 year old jewish homosexual (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48238577) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 10:18 AM Author: I know that you are from Canada tp Sometimes proles are right and pointy headed intellectuals are wrong.
Maggie Thatcher won 3 elections in the UK and every time the experts said she was going to lose but proles carried her. The arc of history is long my friend and the world isn't run exclusively by Penn grads hth |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 10:55 AM Author: .,.,...,..,.,.,:,,:,..,:::,.,.,:,.,.:.,:.,:.::,. but penn is prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48238769) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 2:13 PM Author: To be fair (Semi-Retarded) To be fair,
Dems in 2004: "FUCK DICK CHENEY, AND FUCK RICH PEOPLE!"
Dems in 2024:"FUCK POOR PROLES, PS DICK CHENEY LOVES US!"
A bold move... let's see if it pays off. Just wait two weeks! |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 2:28 PM Author: Wallace and Solace (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48239865) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 10:26 AM Author: '"'"'"''" I think there's also something to be said about Biden's PA/DE roots. Delaware is essentially a Philly suburb, so he was seen as kind of a long time "hometown kid." He's also from Scranton originally.
Might not be a huge boost, but he lost PA by 80k votes (after Republicans won in 2016) so every bit helped him.
Kamala and Walz don't have that benefit in PA.
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Date: October 25th, 2024 10:29 AM Author: Sean South of Garryowen Also, Biden had a tinge of that old working-class Dem about him. Where the party used to be. Kamala does not have that, although she is pushing her WC creds hard in commercials, I am not sure it is working. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48238641) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 10:37 AM Author: '"'"'"''" The Democratic party has completely abandoned this demographic. It's actually worse than that: they've turned this demographic into the enemy. They're betting on demographics change (and may be right) but it's sad and fucked up. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48238670) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 2:15 PM Author: To be fair (Semi-Retarded) To be fair,
How dare you spread this kind of misinformation about the privileged half Black half Indian child of egghead academics who grew up in Canada.
Kamala spent two weeks working at McDonalds one time! (She claimed, without evidence.) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 10:30 AM Author: .,.,..,,.,,.,.;:,,.,...,:::,.,.,:,.,.:.,:.,:.::.. Trump won PA in 2016 due to his strength in NEPA which is an exurb of NYC. Trump lost some of his northeastern appeal when he moved to FL, but his quasi-northeastern appeal still had him run a competitive race vs. Biden.
Harris as a Calfiornian/Westerner can't compete with Trump's quasi-northeastern home region affiliation.
Casey is also winning easily due to NEPA, PA elections are determined by NEPA, not the Philly Suburbs as Schumer & Co. thought in 2016. |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 10:31 AM Author: Sean South of Garryowen Yeah, Casey is a lock. Kamala? Remains to be seen. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48238645) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 10:38 AM Author: I know that you are from Canada tp Lmao false polls keep tightening for McCormick. Casey is a dud. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48238678) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 10:43 AM Author: .,.,..,,.,,.,.;:,,.,...,:::,.,.,:,.,.:.,:.,:.::.. Mcginty would've won had she been from NEPA instead of the Philly Suburbs. GOP would've been better off spending their hype money on Lake vs. sabotaging her. Lake barely lost in 2022 in contrast to Mccormick who would've lost as badly as Oz did. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48238707) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 10:46 AM Author: I know that you are from Canada tp False! You're wrong homo see you on election day. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48238723) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 10:35 AM Author: '"'"'"''" (POTUS of Allentown) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48238664) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 10:37 AM Author: I know that you are from Canada tp (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48238672) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 11:42 AM Author: .,..,.,.;,.,,:,.,.,::,...,..,:,..;,.., RATE twice failed GOP house candidate Lisa Scheller's tastefully decorated house that just sold for $1.9M
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/751-Benner-Rd-Allentown-PA-18104/9610077_zpid/ |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 11:37 AM Author: .,..,.,.;,.,,:,.,.,::,...,..,:,..;,.., NEPA is not a fucking exurb of NYC you dipshit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48239001) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 11:46 AM Author: .,.,..,,.,,.,.;:,,.,...,:::,.,.,:,.,.:.,:.,:.::.. The Port Jervis/Matamoras area counts as part of the NYC Metropolitan Area. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48239046) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 11:51 AM Author: Sean South of Garryowen How many people live there? NEPA is the Poconos mostly and, although some of those folks might root for the Yankees or Mets, it has little in common with NYC metro |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 10:37 AM Author: I know that you are from Canada tp I absolutely agree with this. Biden was a hometown guy. He also could really relate with the white working class.
On Mark Halperin's show they did a focus group of undecideds and 100% of them said that if Harris and Trump were running for governor of PA they would all vote for Trump. Their only hesitation was on social issues and foreign policy. But they were almost all leaning Trump. |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 11:04 AM Author: '"'"'"''" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48238813) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 10:31 AM Author: aspie Philly is insanely shitlib, worse than NYC or Baltimore (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48238647) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 10:41 AM Author: .,.,.;;,;.,..,:,,:,...,:::,...,:,.,.;.:...:.,:.::, philly is full of minorities and shitlibs, of both the poor and moneyed kind
it's not even as red as queens, for which you can kind of make this argument but which doesn't stop it from going +40 dem
it will always be a barrier to PA going red. PA is just a matter of which side of the state has higher turnout. |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 10:46 AM Author: I know that you are from Canada tp That's possible too but I believe. I think it's shifting. The working class coalition is a genuine political realignment. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48238719) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 10:51 AM Author: .,.,.;;,;.,..,:,,:,...,:::,...,:,.,.;.:...:.,:.::, just look at the map from 2020: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/upshot/2020-election-map.html
another analogy is pittsburgh, which better suits what you're describing, and still goes heavily dem except for the suburbs (which is a difference from philly, whose suburbs are rich and jewish, not genuinely working class like pittsburgh).
if philly ever turns at all, the real story will be blacks turning on the democratic party and it will be a theme that plays out beyond just philly. and that will happen this year but it is probably a trend unique to these two candidates. |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 11:03 AM Author: Drunkard You are missing a few things. Biden was nominally Catholic and that’s worth something. Minorities, especially Hispanics, don’t like voting for women and they are >8% of PA. Jews are turning to TRUMP, not completely, but some.
The real killer is the Karens, main line Protestants, Fishtown 30 something women wearing carhartt beanies, and gays. Philly gentrifying and cleaning up is actually helping dems as the hellscape is limited to discrete areas so they don’t see the consequences of the disastrous dem policies on a daily basis. Also not helpful that fewer and fewer people have kids so they don’t see or care about the failed schools (although TBF Philly does a decent job with magnet schools so it’s not the death sentence it was 20 years ago to live in Philly and send your kids to public school).
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Date: October 25th, 2024 11:13 AM Author: I know that you are from Canada tp (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48238848) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 11:21 AM Author: Drunkard To put it in perspective, I was talking to a guy who got a $150 ticket for smoking pot outside in old city, where you go to K&A you can shoot fent without consequence. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48238898) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 11:28 AM Author: I know that you are from Canada tp tp (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48238950) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 2:19 PM Author: Institute for JDVanced Study OP may be correct. Democrat leaders are just moving too far left. And they fundamentally misunderstand the direction the Republicans are moving in. They are moving to the center on many issues and away from the far right on most. It's only because the left is becoming further distant from the center that they see everyone else as moving right. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48239811) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 2:26 PM Author: I know that you are from Canada tp thank you. my thoughts exactly. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48239845) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: Fry Mumia You lost me at McCormick +1. I am going to have to go bet on Casey now because I shit my pants laughing so hard and am now out an expensive pair of slacks. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48240380) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 3:59 PM Author: I know that you are from Canada tp Date: October 25th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: Fry Mumia
You lost me at McCormick +1. I am going to have to go bet on Casey now because I shit my pants laughing so hard and am now out an expensive pair of slacks.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48240380) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 4:00 PM Author: MASE McCormick will win. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48240449) |