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Libs: how do you feel that Trump is a heavy favorite to reclaim POTUS?
| bateful talking pit newt | 07/19/24 |
| fuchsia personal credit line | 07/19/24 |
| bateful talking pit newt | 07/19/24 |
| Twinkling Glittery Area Internal Respiration | 07/19/24 |
| sienna kitty cat yarmulke | 07/19/24 |
| Twinkling Glittery Area Internal Respiration | 07/19/24 |
| Racy Shaky Trump Supporter | 07/19/24 |
| sienna kitty cat yarmulke | 07/19/24 |
| Racy Shaky Trump Supporter | 07/19/24 |
| Pea-brained Swashbuckling Generalized Bond Affirmative Action | 07/19/24 |
| french light church building nowag | 07/19/24 |
| Racy Shaky Trump Supporter | 07/19/24 |
| bat-shit-crazy corner | 07/19/24 |
| Vivacious Snowy Site | 07/19/24 |
| bateful talking pit newt | 07/19/24 |
| Vivacious Snowy Site | 07/19/24 |
| Costumed godawful theater stage | 07/19/24 |
| Vivacious Snowy Site | 07/19/24 |
| Costumed godawful theater stage | 07/19/24 |
| Vivacious Snowy Site | 07/19/24 |
| bateful talking pit newt | 07/19/24 |
| bateful talking pit newt | 07/19/24 |
| french light church building nowag | 07/19/24 |
| fear-inspiring sticky business firm | 07/19/24 |
| Racy Shaky Trump Supporter | 07/19/24 |
| fear-inspiring sticky business firm | 07/19/24 |
| bateful talking pit newt | 07/19/24 |
| Costumed godawful theater stage | 07/24/24 |
| Costumed godawful theater stage | 07/24/24 |
| curious national security agency | 07/24/24 |
| odious fanboi | 07/24/24 |
| Costumed godawful theater stage | 07/24/24 |
| curious national security agency | 07/25/24 |
| odious fanboi | 07/26/24 |
| french light church building nowag | 07/26/24 |
| Costumed godawful theater stage | 07/28/24 |
| .,.,.;.,...,..,.,:,,:,.,...,::,..,:,.,.:,..:.,:.:, | 10/24/24 |
| MASE | 10/24/24 |
| aphrodisiac rehab | 07/28/24 |
| Costumed godawful theater stage | 07/28/24 |
| .,.,.;.,...,..,.,:,,:,.,...,::,..,:,.,.:,..:.,:.:, | 10/24/24 |
| Costumed godawful theater stage | 07/31/24 |
| .,.,.;.,...,..,.,:,,:,.,...,::,..,:,.,.:,..:.,:.:, | 10/24/24 |
| fear-inspiring sticky business firm | 07/31/24 |
| .,.,.;.,...,..,.,:,,:,.,...,::,..,:,.,.:,..:.,:.:, | 10/24/24 |
| Costumed godawful theater stage | 08/06/24 |
| .,.,.;.,...,..,.,:,,:,.,...,::,..,:,.,.:,..:.,:.:, | 10/24/24 |
| Costumed godawful theater stage | 08/10/24 |
| elite disrespectful point | 08/10/24 |
| Costumed godawful theater stage | 08/12/24 |
| .,.,.;.,...,..,.,:,,:,.,...,::,..,:,.,.:,..:.,:.:, | 10/24/24 |
| .....,,,,,...,,,,,..,.,,,,,.,,. | 10/24/24 |
| fear-inspiring sticky business firm | 08/12/24 |
| Costumed godawful theater stage | 09/11/24 |
| .,.,.;.,...,..,.,:,,:,.,...,::,..,:,.,.:,..:.,:.:, | 10/24/24 |
| MASE | 10/24/24 |
| french light church building nowag | 09/11/24 |
| Costumed godawful theater stage | 09/20/24 |
| MASE | 10/24/24 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: July 19th, 2024 1:35 PM Author: bateful talking pit newt Polls and betting markets show that Donald John Trump is almost twice as likely as every other person on the planet combined to once again become president of the United States of America. This is contrary to the wishes of over 90% of black (sorry, BLACK) (oh wait, I overshot it, I mean Black) women in the country.
Does this make you mad? Americans finally realize that the whole “Drumpf is an existential threat to democracy!” thing is just typical shitlib histrionics not to be taken seriously. Are you ready for four more years of Trump and an improved economy with precisely none of the armageddon scenarios you keep peddling? |
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Date: July 19th, 2024 2:10 PM Author: fuchsia personal credit line betting markets had Trump up bigly in 2020 too! until the election results started coming in that is. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#47866966) |
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Date: July 19th, 2024 4:20 PM Author: bateful talking pit newt Yes, underdogs in various betting markets end up winning every single day! You should just bet on all of them and profit!
Notably, Trump was never a 64% favorite in 2020, but I’m sure his actual odds are much lower than 64% this year since he lost in 2020! |
Date: July 19th, 2024 1:36 PM Author: Twinkling Glittery Area Internal Respiration dey mad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#47866799) |
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Date: July 19th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: sienna kitty cat yarmulke As a lifelong moderate Democrat, after the events of the last week, culminating in Kid Rock's performance last night, I'm a Republican now (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#47866831) |
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Date: July 19th, 2024 1:47 PM Author: Twinkling Glittery Area Internal Respiration welcome home, it’s warm and friendly here (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#47866835) |
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Date: July 19th, 2024 1:52 PM Author: Racy Shaky Trump Supporter And hulk hogan's? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#47866852) |
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Date: July 19th, 2024 1:55 PM Author: sienna kitty cat yarmulke Hulk Hogan is a clown and I don't support your party's embrace of such Idiocracy-style tactics. Otoh, it has long been accepted that Kid Rock is a legitimate musical talent, with a deep and powerful message. Now, we know also that he is a Patriot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#47866871) |
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Date: July 19th, 2024 2:43 PM Author: Racy Shaky Trump Supporter You must be one of those "principled conservatives" Rush Limbaugh always used to make fun of (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#47867154) |
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Date: July 19th, 2024 2:09 PM Author: Pea-brained Swashbuckling Generalized Bond Affirmative Action kid rock nationalism (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#47866963) |
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Date: July 19th, 2024 1:50 PM Author: french light church building nowag I, for one, am more than willing to send my transkids to die for Israel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#47866843) |
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Date: July 19th, 2024 1:52 PM Author: Racy Shaky Trump Supporter You're gonna do that regardless of who's in (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#47866850) |
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Date: July 19th, 2024 2:44 PM Author: bat-shit-crazy corner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#47867162) |
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Date: July 19th, 2024 1:56 PM Author: Vivacious Snowy Site I just don't want to pay more GODDAMNED TAXES (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#47866881) |
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Date: July 19th, 2024 1:59 PM Author: bateful talking pit newt How do you feel about the silent tax of inflation? Would you prefer 0% taxes, and the government just printing all the money it needs? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#47866905) |
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Date: July 19th, 2024 2:00 PM Author: Vivacious Snowy Site How is inflation a silent tax on me (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#47866911) |
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Date: July 19th, 2024 2:02 PM Author: Costumed godawful theater stage It allows the government to spend money simply by printing it while at the same time devaluing the money you save/earn. The effect is the same as a tax. Government has more, you have less. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#47866926) |
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Date: July 19th, 2024 2:05 PM Author: Vivacious Snowy Site I obviously hold the vast majority of my net worth in assets, not USD. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#47866941) |
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Date: July 19th, 2024 2:07 PM Author: Costumed godawful theater stage If your assets are increasing in value because of inflation they’re not actually increasing in terms of real value. And you presumably still earn income in US currency which used to be worth more than it is now. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#47866954) |
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Date: July 19th, 2024 2:11 PM Author: Vivacious Snowy Site If the government is printing USD willy nilly, there will be more USD (which I don't have much of) chasing the same amount of assets (which I do own). The nominal increase in asset prices may not be real, but it's not a tax on me.
My income is directly tied to the price of what I sell, which of course is also increasing in nominal price |
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Date: July 19th, 2024 4:30 PM Author: bateful talking pit newt Ultimately, a 50% tax rate is the same as a 50% reduction in the value of your dollars due to doubling the supply of money. If you only hold assets that don’t produce income, you wouldn’t be taxed under 50% income either. If they do produce income, that income will be worth half as much under inflation, or would be taxed at 50% if the government funded dem programs that way. It makes no difference. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#47867680) |
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Date: July 19th, 2024 2:03 PM Author: bateful talking pit newt If you have a net worth of 0, it isn’t. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#47866929) |
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Date: July 19th, 2024 3:31 PM Author: french light church building nowag I think Trump's your man. As I understand it, the plan is:
1. Cut taxes 2. Replace the revenue by selling Treasury bonds to banks 3. Send the proceeds to Israel. |
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Date: July 19th, 2024 2:44 PM Author: fear-inspiring sticky business firm As a Lifelong Democrat, this unhinged post has surely made me want to convert to Republicanism. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#47867170) |
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Date: July 19th, 2024 2:45 PM Author: Racy Shaky Trump Supporter Choo choo! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#47867177) |
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Date: July 19th, 2024 3:15 PM Author: fear-inspiring sticky business firm keep your mom out of this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#47867308) |
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Date: July 19th, 2024 4:31 PM Author: bateful talking pit newt Nobody asked you to convert, shitlib. I just want to know if you’re MAF that Trump is a heavy favorite to win. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#47867690) |
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Date: July 24th, 2024 1:30 PM Author: Costumed godawful theater stage Where are we on this? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#47887323) |
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Date: July 24th, 2024 6:28 PM Author: Costumed godawful theater stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#47888655) |
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Date: July 24th, 2024 7:45 PM Author: curious national security agency Honestly, I just tell myself that there are two possibilities. One is that Trump's advisors talk him out of the stupid shit he has proposed, in which case it's NBD. Possibility two is that he goes through with it and supercharges inflation. Given that Trump's approval rating is already SPS, that will most likely result in Democratic waves in 2026 and 2028. So most likely it works out one way or another.
Also, remember that prediction markets had Hillary as a 80-90% favorite up until around 8pm on Election Day. Trump is the favorite at this point, but his lead in the polls is smaller than Hillary's lead was in 2016. |
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Date: July 24th, 2024 8:25 PM Author: odious fanboi I think it's safe to say at this point the polls skew dem, and any polling margin of error only represents a bigger margin of victory for Trump-47 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#47889204) |
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Date: July 24th, 2024 8:25 PM Author: Costumed godawful theater stage why is it safe to say? They skewed heavily Republican in 2022 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#47889210) |
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Date: July 25th, 2024 2:13 PM Author: curious national security agency Actually, the polls were almost spot on in 2022. The media just assumed that the polls were wrong because they took it as an article of faith that the party in power always does poorly in midterm elections, particularly when the POTUS is unpopular.
It is true that Trump outperformed his polls in both 2016 and 2020, but I wouldn't bet that it happens again based on a sample size of two. Historically, there isn't much rhyme or reason to which party outperforms the polls. |
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Date: July 26th, 2024 7:06 PM Author: odious fanboi Fair point, but the sample is way bigger than two. Two elections, but many polls. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#47896817) |
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Date: July 26th, 2024 7:11 PM Author: french light church building nowag I disagree with the premise of the question (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#47896834) |
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Date: July 28th, 2024 1:56 PM Author: Costumed godawful theater stage Update? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#47902466) |
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Date: October 24th, 2024 5:44 PM Author: .,.,.;.,...,..,.,:,,:,.,...,::,..,:,.,.:,..:.,:.:, (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#48236446) |
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Date: October 24th, 2024 5:50 PM Author: MASE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#48236469) |
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Date: July 28th, 2024 1:59 PM Author: aphrodisiac rehab “Polls and betting markets show that Donald John Trump is almost twice as likely as every other person on the planet combined to once again become president of the United States of America.”
And one week later it’s already 50/50. Sad! |
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Date: July 28th, 2024 2:13 PM Author: Costumed godawful theater stage They got so excited they spiked the ball on the 20 yard line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#47902513) |
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Date: October 24th, 2024 5:44 PM Author: .,.,.;.,...,..,.,:,,:,.,...,::,..,:,.,.:,..:.,:.:, (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#48236448) |
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Date: July 31st, 2024 3:07 PM Author: Costumed godawful theater stage Client needs an update ASAP (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#47913989) |
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Date: October 24th, 2024 5:45 PM Author: .,.,.;.,...,..,.,:,,:,.,...,::,..,:,.,.:,..:.,:.:, (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#48236449) |
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Date: July 31st, 2024 3:08 PM Author: fear-inspiring sticky business firm Circling back to see where we are on this? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#47913992) |
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Date: October 24th, 2024 5:44 PM Author: .,.,.;.,...,..,.,:,,:,.,...,::,..,:,.,.:,..:.,:.:, (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#48236445) |
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Date: August 6th, 2024 3:14 PM Author: Costumed godawful theater stage op? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#47935114) |
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Date: October 24th, 2024 5:44 PM Author: .,.,.;.,...,..,.,:,,:,.,...,::,..,:,.,.:,..:.,:.:, (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#48236444) |
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Date: August 10th, 2024 10:11 AM Author: Costumed godawful theater stage Hello? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#47950340) |
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Date: August 10th, 2024 10:14 AM Author: elite disrespectful point Polls and betting markets are now fake and gay obviously (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#47950355) |
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Date: August 12th, 2024 4:16 PM Author: Costumed godawful theater stage God I love this thread I’m so happy you made it (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#47957683) |
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Date: October 24th, 2024 5:43 PM Author: .,.,.;.,...,..,.,:,,:,.,...,::,..,:,.,.:,..:.,:.:, Does it matter that Trump has almost identical odds now as when the thread was made? Does a temporary dip make you that much happier? Do you think betting markets are “wrong” if they give Kamala a 36% chance of winning and she ends up doing so? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#48236442) |
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Date: October 24th, 2024 5:55 PM Author: .....,,,,,...,,,,,..,.,,,,,.,,. Same (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#48236498) |
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Date: August 12th, 2024 4:47 PM Author: fear-inspiring sticky business firm Just wanted to make sure this was at the top of your inbox. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#47957803) |
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Date: September 11th, 2024 8:35 PM Author: Costumed godawful theater stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#48078579) |
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Date: October 24th, 2024 5:45 PM Author: .,.,.;.,...,..,.,:,,:,.,...,::,..,:,.,.:,..:.,:.:, (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#48236451) |
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Date: October 24th, 2024 5:50 PM Author: MASE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#48236470) |
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Date: September 11th, 2024 8:44 PM Author: french light church building nowag Lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#48078623) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 7:38 PM Author: Costumed godawful theater stage Was this a MASE thread? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#48114697) |
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Date: October 24th, 2024 5:49 PM Author: MASE No, but it very well could have been! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5559843&forum_id=2#48236468) |