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This dump's obsession with Predictit is retarded

...
Lascivious Buck-toothed Organic Girlfriend Masturbator
  07/29/24
PredictIt is 180. It tells you in real time how people with ...
Flushed Lettuce Sanctuary
  07/29/24
oh the <$1k skin!
tan arousing french chef institution
  07/29/24
that’s like 10% of their annual after tax income so ye...
Flushed Lettuce Sanctuary
  07/29/24
Oh, the opinions of poors who gamble more than they should! ...
tan arousing french chef institution
  07/29/24
You can only buy $1000 of each position?
rose national turdskin
  07/29/24
$800 on every contract Trump yes/no Kamala yes/no B...
Glittery voyeur site
  07/29/24
If insiders can't put big money down, it's predictive value ...
rose national turdskin
  07/29/24
It’s the opposite actually. One big bet on one side sk...
Flushed Lettuce Sanctuary
  07/30/24
Predicit is kinda bullshit and always has been tbh. Too pron...
Mildly autistic old irish cottage
  07/29/24
45% seems about right for Romney going into Nov 2012
Flushed Lettuce Sanctuary
  07/29/24
ur retarded
Stirring lime business firm
  07/29/24
it's probably the most accurate metric on how people feel at...
Curious twisted spot
  07/29/24
(statistics mastermind)
Mildly autistic old irish cottage
  07/29/24
"trust the science!" - guy ignoring how poorly pol...
Curious twisted spot
  07/29/24
They were like at most 2.5% off for decades. Biden was 60...
Silver charismatic boiling water
  07/29/24
which indicated that two weeks ago about 60% of people thoug...
Curious twisted spot
  07/29/24
So we learned that 60% of polysci redditors and degenerative...
Silver charismatic boiling water
  07/29/24
two weeks ago you were relying on predicitit with absolute c...
Curious twisted spot
  07/29/24
Dems definitely picked Kamala to save face win or lose they ...
Silver charismatic boiling water
  07/29/24
none of that is incongruent what what ive said. prediciti...
Curious twisted spot
  07/29/24
and how people feel in the moment has terribly low predictiv...
Silver charismatic boiling water
  07/29/24
...
Cream Meetinghouse Partner
  07/29/24
I disagree. I think betting markets are extremely dumb. They...
Silver charismatic boiling water
  07/29/24
cr it's closer to crypto or meme stocks than anything else
Mildly autistic old irish cottage
  07/29/24
Ljl at anyone who puts stock in someone "buying Buttigi...
Silver charismatic boiling water
  07/29/24
that's exactly what i said -- it's a great snapshot into how...
Curious twisted spot
  07/29/24
Right and polls have vastly more predictive power than a sna...
Silver charismatic boiling water
  07/29/24
how does a poll capture how people will feel in the future m...
Curious twisted spot
  07/29/24
Right so sometimes it's in tune with the polling and sometim...
Silver charismatic boiling water
  07/29/24
No Biden has been below 40% since June and most of that time...
Flushed Lettuce Sanctuary
  07/29/24
He briefly shot up to like 60% a few days before it was all ...
Silver charismatic boiling water
  07/29/24
they remember their nerd professor’s excitement over t...
Aromatic sable messiness
  07/29/24
so you're constantly taking advantage of mispriced markets t...
Flirting zombie-like hominid trailer park
  07/29/24
...
Flushed Lettuce Sanctuary
  07/29/24
They cap your exposure to a single contract at $850, take 10...
sooty elastic band ladyboy
  07/29/24
It's Reddit level fags betting on politics
Lascivious Buck-toothed Organic Girlfriend Masturbator
  07/29/24
I really like it here
Silver charismatic boiling water
  07/29/24
Polymarket > predictit
lemon heady boistinker parlor
  07/29/24
Sup Nate how's it hangin
Silver charismatic boiling water
  07/29/24
its a load of bs and no one with a brain would buy a "c...
Aquamarine abode
  07/29/24
...
Silver charismatic boiling water
  07/29/24
I made like $200 off of Trumpmos in late-November 2020 who t...
provocative cobalt stead
  07/29/24
but the place that takes the poll numbers and then filters t...
ivory gaped location water buffalo
  07/29/24
...
saffron stimulating temple
  07/29/24
...
Azure locale jewess
  07/30/24
seems like the go-to for a redditor who struggles to really ...
Lavender wonderful police squad
  07/29/24
False, Nate is a YUGE Polymarket stan
Silver charismatic boiling water
  07/29/24
Nate Silver pointed out that polymart or whatever has like a...
infuriating pozpig
  07/29/24
Cr
Silver charismatic boiling water
  07/29/24
theres like 20% in fees and you owe taxes too. obviously the...
Aquamarine abode
  07/29/24
...
Electric sneaky criminal market
  07/29/24
Predictit always has a con bias because most degenerate gamb...
Stirring lime business firm
  07/29/24
no, most degenerate gamblers are chinks. followed by shitlib...
ivory gaped location water buffalo
  07/30/24
It has a terrible track record and its only usefulness I can...
Cordovan coiffed piazza azn
  07/29/24
Remember when Trump was at 99c at 3am Election Night 2020?
excitant brilliant kitchen
  07/29/24
no
Flirting zombie-like hominid trailer park
  07/30/24
I remember it was at 92 cents and then I went to sleep.
jade rebellious newt
  07/30/24
No because this didn't happen.
Cordovan coiffed piazza azn
  07/30/24
It did, and then the water mane broke
excitant brilliant kitchen
  07/30/24
The red mirage?
rose national turdskin
  07/30/24
Could've deleted the 3rd - 6th words
Azure locale jewess
  07/30/24


Poast new message in this thread



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 12:26 PM
Author: Lascivious Buck-toothed Organic Girlfriend Masturbator



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905204)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 12:28 PM
Author: Flushed Lettuce Sanctuary

PredictIt is 180. It tells you in real time how people with skin in the game are reacting to polls and the latest news

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905207)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 1:01 PM
Author: tan arousing french chef institution

oh the <$1k skin!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905344)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 1:01 PM
Author: Flushed Lettuce Sanctuary

that’s like 10% of their annual after tax income so yeah it’s a lot

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905345)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 1:05 PM
Author: tan arousing french chef institution

Oh, the opinions of poors who gamble more than they should! Very accurate!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905356)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 1:22 PM
Author: rose national turdskin

You can only buy $1000 of each position?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905434)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 1:57 PM
Author: Glittery voyeur site

$800 on every contract

Trump yes/no

Kamala yes/no

Biden yes/no

All are separate positions

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905562)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 8:09 PM
Author: rose national turdskin

If insiders can't put big money down, it's predictive value seems suspect.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47906736)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 30th, 2024 8:16 AM
Author: Flushed Lettuce Sanctuary

It’s the opposite actually. One big bet on one side skews the odds significantly even though that’s just one person’s opinion. That’s why polymarket is lopsided by comparison. “Insiders” don’t know more than anyone else when it comes to who will win elections.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47907950)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 12:29 PM
Author: Mildly autistic old irish cottage

Predicit is kinda bullshit and always has been tbh. Too prone to irrationality and directional bias and manipulation.

Back in 2012 Romneybots used Predicted to say "see, he has a 45% chance of winning!!" even though it was insanely obvious he was going to get stomped

KAMALA is the Romney of this election

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905215)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 12:35 PM
Author: Flushed Lettuce Sanctuary

45% seems about right for Romney going into Nov 2012

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905244)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 8:14 PM
Author: Stirring lime business firm

ur retarded

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47906749)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 12:32 PM
Author: Curious twisted spot

it's probably the most accurate metric on how people feel at any given moment.

polls are dumb. the sample sizes aren't huge and who is picking up unknown numbers in 2024? and there is no skin in the game.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905230)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 12:36 PM
Author: Mildly autistic old irish cottage

(statistics mastermind)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905249)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 12:41 PM
Author: Curious twisted spot

"trust the science!" - guy ignoring how poorly polls reflected outcomes over the last decade.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905263)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 12:48 PM
Author: Silver charismatic boiling water

They were like at most 2.5% off for decades.

Biden was 60/40 on PredictIt to be the nominee two weeks ago. Ljl.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905292)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 12:54 PM
Author: Curious twisted spot

which indicated that two weeks ago about 60% of people thought biden would be nominee, which is likely true.

my point is that both predicit and polls reflect how people are thinking at the moment. and i think predicit often does a better job than polling. but regardless, both of them just capture how people feel at that moment. in the same way the price of stock reflects how people feel about it at any given time, not a reflection of it's intrinsic value or future performance.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905317)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 12:55 PM
Author: Silver charismatic boiling water

So we learned that 60% of polysci redditors and degenerative online gamblers were REALLY wrong and unable to read the tea leaves moments before the obvious happened? Hmm wish I put more stock in what THESE IDIOTS think after all they have skin in the game!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905324)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 12:59 PM
Author: Curious twisted spot

two weeks ago you were relying on predicitit with absolute certainty that the dems were picking kamala to intentionally tank the election to "save face."

regardless of whether what they predicted occurred, it's a good tool to see what people think will happen in the future. i.e. what people feel at any given moment. which is what i said from the beginning. i don't think polls or predictit are particularly good at actually predicating outcomes. only predicitit even seeks to do that -- polls are expressly about taking the temperature of how people feel at any moment in time. everyone knows polls will shift over time, it's essentially guaranteed.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905336)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 1:03 PM
Author: Silver charismatic boiling water

Dems definitely picked Kamala to save face win or lose they look a lot more competent than they did before. I have no recollection of relying entirely on PredictIt but to the extent I referenced it it was because I don't jerk off to politicths all day and was still in the "haha holy shit" camp of bystanders like everyone else with a life.

An election forecaster like Nate Silver is by far the best we have, someone who can dig into the minutae of polls and weight them based on quality. Nate is tremendously accurate and gave Trump like a 43% chance in 2016 when the entire rest of the media said impossible. His techniques are legit and he has the right type of autism to interpret polls. He seldomly references betting markets but does not rely on them.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905351)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 1:21 PM
Author: Curious twisted spot

none of that is incongruent what what ive said.

predicitit is a market like any other. it's good tool for seeing how people feel at any given moment.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905430)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 1:30 PM
Author: Silver charismatic boiling water

and how people feel in the moment has terribly low predictive power

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905459)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 9:03 PM
Author: Cream Meetinghouse Partner



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47906950)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 12:40 PM
Author: Silver charismatic boiling water

I disagree. I think betting markets are extremely dumb. They react to people's hysteria. Betting markets are often wildly wrong and react to people's emotions. A couple weeks ago Biden was up really high as people thought he wasn't dropping out. It turns out people are often wrong.

Another way to view betting markets is like an emotional snapshot of how people feel about the stock market less its intrinsic value. It would be like if you could somehow capture how people feel about a certain stock less what it was actually worth. To that end it's a horribly unreliable metric.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905262)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 12:41 PM
Author: Mildly autistic old irish cottage

cr it's closer to crypto or meme stocks than anything else

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905265)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 12:42 PM
Author: Silver charismatic boiling water

Ljl at anyone who puts stock in someone "buying Buttigieg" because they could "100x their money" having any real world predictive power.

I mean, people bet on the Jets to win the Super Bowl. Every year. It doesn't mean the Jets are going to win the Super Bowl. It's just dumb people's feelings.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905269)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 12:43 PM
Author: Curious twisted spot

that's exactly what i said -- it's a great snapshot into how people *feel* at any given moment. probably better than polling because it captures a larger audience and people have skin in the game.

that doesn't mean it's a good predictor of what will happen in november. it is a good indicator of how people are feeling at this moment.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905272)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 12:46 PM
Author: Silver charismatic boiling water

Right and polls have vastly more predictive power than a snapshot of how people feel. Kamala is almost certainly overvalued in the betting market because libs are excited about her. That has no bearing on whether she will win. It's a snapshot of their excitement level. People get excited when the Jets start the season 2-2 but it doesn't MEAN anything.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905282)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 12:52 PM
Author: Curious twisted spot

how does a poll capture how people will feel in the future more accurately than people betting on what will occur in the future? both are based on how people feel *right now*.

also, trump is about 3 cents ahead of kamala on predicitit, which is about consistent with the RCP average (trump +1.7) and latest national polls (trump +2). so both predicitit and polling seems approximately aligned at the moment.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905304)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 12:54 PM
Author: Silver charismatic boiling water

Right so sometimes it's in tune with the polling and sometimes it's way off. But the polls are far more consistently accurate.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905319)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 1:02 PM
Author: Flushed Lettuce Sanctuary

No Biden has been below 40% since June and most of that time was in the 20s

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905348)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 1:04 PM
Author: Silver charismatic boiling water

He briefly shot up to like 60% a few days before it was all over. It was around the time Mayor Pete went on TV and said Biden would never step down.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905354)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 12:39 PM
Author: Aromatic sable messiness

they remember their nerd professor’s excitement over the “theoretically maximal predictive power” of such a market in undergrad and naively cling to this academic trope in an attempt to signal intelligence.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905257)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 12:43 PM
Author: Flirting zombie-like hominid trailer park

so you're constantly taking advantage of mispriced markets there, right?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905273)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 1:48 PM
Author: Flushed Lettuce Sanctuary



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905520)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 12:44 PM
Author: sooty elastic band ladyboy

They cap your exposure to a single contract at $850, take 10% of profit and charge a *5%* withdrawal fee. Plus the site crashes constantly on election night and the CFTC might shut them down. Probably not a lot of serious people wasting time with it

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905274)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 12:48 PM
Author: Lascivious Buck-toothed Organic Girlfriend Masturbator

It's Reddit level fags betting on politics

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905293)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 12:49 PM
Author: Silver charismatic boiling water

I really like it here

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905298)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 12:47 PM
Author: lemon heady boistinker parlor

Polymarket > predictit

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905289)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 12:49 PM
Author: Silver charismatic boiling water

Sup Nate how's it hangin

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905294)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 12:57 PM
Author: Aquamarine abode

its a load of bs and no one with a brain would buy a "contract"

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905331)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 12:58 PM
Author: Silver charismatic boiling water



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905334)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 6:20 PM
Author: provocative cobalt stead

I made like $200 off of Trumpmos in late-November 2020 who thought the audit was gonna reverse the AZ Senate result

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47906394)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 1:32 PM
Author: ivory gaped location water buffalo

but the place that takes the poll numbers and then filters them through a bunch of gambling addicts gives us the least bad numbers for kamala, so we like it.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905463)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 5:21 PM
Author: saffron stimulating temple



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47906173)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 30th, 2024 1:51 AM
Author: Azure locale jewess



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47907640)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 5:06 PM
Author: Lavender wonderful police squad

seems like the go-to for a redditor who struggles to really "get" Nate Silver's analysis

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47906103)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 5:08 PM
Author: Silver charismatic boiling water

False, Nate is a YUGE Polymarket stan

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47906112)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 6:13 PM
Author: infuriating pozpig

Nate Silver pointed out that polymart or whatever has like a 20 point difference in presidential odds than predictit.

That in itself shows it can't be taken seriously. There obviously isn't any smart money associated with it otherwise those gaps would be filled right away

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47906378)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 6:30 PM
Author: Silver charismatic boiling water

Cr

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47906413)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 7:24 PM
Author: Aquamarine abode

theres like 20% in fees and you owe taxes too. obviously theres no smart money involved.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47906514)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 7:27 PM
Author: Electric sneaky criminal market



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47906527)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 8:14 PM
Author: Stirring lime business firm

Predictit always has a con bias because most degenerate gamblers are also conservatives.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47906752)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 30th, 2024 1:34 AM
Author: ivory gaped location water buffalo

no, most degenerate gamblers are chinks. followed by shitlib white men.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47907638)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 8:16 PM
Author: Cordovan coiffed piazza azn

It has a terrible track record and its only usefulness I can see is its speed (a development will affect contract prices immediately, whereas polling takes a week or so to catch up).

So I guess if you're aware something happened but don't want to take the time to learn about it yourself and develop a judgment that's better than the HERD OF RETARDS on predictit, but you need to know how it'll affect a race, you can go to predictit to see what the plugged-in-moron brigade is thinking.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47906755)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 29th, 2024 8:16 PM
Author: excitant brilliant kitchen

Remember when Trump was at 99c at 3am Election Night 2020?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47906756)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 30th, 2024 12:53 AM
Author: Flirting zombie-like hominid trailer park

no

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47907592)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 30th, 2024 1:03 AM
Author: jade rebellious newt

I remember it was at 92 cents and then I went to sleep.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47907608)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 30th, 2024 1:04 AM
Author: Cordovan coiffed piazza azn

No because this didn't happen.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47907609)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 30th, 2024 4:42 AM
Author: excitant brilliant kitchen

It did, and then the water mane broke

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47907723)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 30th, 2024 7:13 AM
Author: rose national turdskin

The red mirage?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47907856)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 30th, 2024 2:01 AM
Author: Azure locale jewess

Could've deleted the 3rd - 6th words

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47907650)