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Major Rent Bubble Set To Burst In MFH (Bloomberg)
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:00 PM Author: violent rebellious national security agency public bath https://www.bloombergquint.com/businessweek/coronavirus-moves-nyc-affordable-housing-crisis-to-breaking-point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40567588) |
Date: July 8th, 2020 12:02 PM Author: Adventurous legal warrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40567604) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:02 PM Author: violent rebellious national security agency public bath was his name benzo? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40567607) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:02 PM Author: confused liquid oxygen circlehead lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40567609) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: Bearded Church Building Partner lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40568364) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 3:58 PM Author: unhinged feces (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40569206) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:03 PM Author: big snowy pocket flask lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40567613) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:06 PM Author: Pontificating office Actual NYC landlordmo here.
Our management company is signing leases. Many slightly discounted, but mostly at the same price as 2019 leases.
You're welks. |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:08 PM Author: violent rebellious national security agency public bath what % increase did u have from 2018 to 2019? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40567636) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:11 PM Author: Pontificating office Typically 3-4% year over year for de-control units. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40567666) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:11 PM Author: adulterous aromatic stag film coffee pot “Typically a studio would go for $2,600, but now it’s $2,300,” Roberts says. oh what a dip |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:12 PM Author: azure meetinghouse BUBBLE BURST (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40567667) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:12 PM Author: violent rebellious national security agency public bath this is just the start of it (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40567669) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:12 PM Author: Pontificating office If it goes down another $300 it gets to TMF's price range. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40567672) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: Trip Dysfunction Nowag Mandy will need another raise for them to afford it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40567688) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:17 PM Author: Pontificating office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40567700) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:17 PM Author: jet library idea he suggested (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40567704) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:26 PM Author: Gaped Station Milk *gets another 2 days of PTO* "We did it!" |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 2:37 PM Author: Talking French Wagecucks (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40568615) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 3:03 PM Author: Shaky Splenetic Nursing Home Boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40568837) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 3:35 PM Author: appetizing elite azn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40569087) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 3:59 PM Author: unhinged feces (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40569214) |
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Date: July 9th, 2020 11:44 AM Author: passionate jewess (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40573607) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:17 PM Author: Gaped Station Milk "Technically, the N, Q, R, W, B, D, F, and M trains all run right under this unit but --" "I'll take it." |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:17 PM Author: Pontificating office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40567706) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 4:00 PM Author: unhinged feces (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40569217) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: Cracking stage regret It will be interesting to see what happens over the next year or two.
When Tokyo real estate busted out prices in some areas went down for like 10 years in real terms - Tokyo is a good proxy for heavily urbanized megacities IMO. |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:16 PM Author: diverse kitty There's probably still a lot of pent up demand with people in Brooklyn and Queens waiting to swoop in. I'd expect the markets in Williamsburg, LIC, etc to crash before MFH does
For those who still need to continue working in mfh, the chance to move to avoid a commute is now a bigger deal |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:25 PM Author: Soul-stirring market yarmulke the opposite is happening. rents are up in Brooklyn, down in Manhattan
https://www.zumper.com/blog/rental-price-data/ |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:30 PM Author: diverse kitty Where does it discuss Brooklyn?
To be clear, I'd expect mfh to drop some. I just don't think it's going to crash. Landlords can lower rents a bit and entice enough orbiters in |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 2:35 PM Author: Soul-stirring market yarmulke ctrl+F "Brooklyn"
Pandemic pricing continues to affect the top markets while the “Brooklyn Effect” becomes more pronounced in cheaper, neighboring cities
The top 10 most expensive markets continued to experience pandemic pricing, as the majority of these cities were trending on a downward trajectory last month. As the pandemic persists on, the demand for rentals has continued to shift away from these pricey areas and a significant amount of that demand seems to be moving toward neighboring, less expensive areas. Similar to the trend we saw in New York, the “Brooklyn Effect” has become more pronounced as some of the largest monthly rent price increases in the nation occurred in satellite cities. For example, in our top markets, while Boston and San Francisco rents were on the decline, Providence and Sacramento prices were both up around 5% last month. |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:29 PM Author: provocative deer antler kitty cat people in williamsburg are there by choice, but i agree that all of long island city would move to MFH if they could afford it (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40567795) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:37 PM Author: Pontificating office Nah, they like those luxury buildings and LIC is low-key, quiet and has the best view of MFH from anywhere. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40567841) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:41 PM Author: diverse kitty That's just a tiny sliver of it. Go a little further north and pretty much just a slightly nicer Bronx (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40567865) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 1:59 PM Author: Pontificating office You're talking about Astoria. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40568395) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 2:20 PM Author: diverse kitty That too, but a huge chunk of LIC is still along the elevated N line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40568521) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 2:26 PM Author: Pontificating office Look, faggot
We're talking about the real LIC people not the prole rent-controlled trash that lives in hovels near the projects because they arrived from Iran and Yemen 5 years ago. |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 2:32 PM Author: provocative deer antler kitty cat "real LIC people" lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40568584) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 2:45 PM Author: Pontificating office (real Lawn Guylinder) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40568678) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 2:54 PM Author: provocative deer antler kitty cat LIC is a sterile, shitty, soon-to-be-vacant "neighborhood"
pretty great commute to midtown though |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 3:35 PM Author: Soul-stirring market yarmulke cr it doesn't even have an opera...where is its food co-op?
"soon-to-be-vacant"
state your IQ |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 3:58 PM Author: provocative deer antler kitty cat the people in LIC will move back home or out to the suburbs (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40569205) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 5:02 PM Author: Soul-stirring market yarmulke so your IQ is low, got it.
the market will clear. |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 5:16 PM Author: provocative deer antler kitty cat it's a neighborhood for transients who work in midtown and will be more negatively affected by covid than other neighborhoods outside of mfh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40569643) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 3:05 PM Author: Shaky Splenetic Nursing Home Boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40568850) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 3:17 PM Author: diverse kitty Bitch, I brought up LIC in the first place. Don't tell me what we're talking about (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40568962) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 2:39 PM Author: Soul-stirring market yarmulke nobody lives in that part, that's all zoned for manufacturing (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40568626) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 3:29 PM Author: Pontificating office It was all rezoned you dumb know nothing fucking faggot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40569044) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 3:34 PM Author: Soul-stirring market yarmulke no it wasn't, a lot of it is still zoned industrial, including the site amazon was looking to rezone. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40569079) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 1:57 PM Author: Black histrionic range karate Dat QUEENS address tho (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40568377) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 4:00 PM Author: unhinged feces 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40569222) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:56 PM Author: confused liquid oxygen circlehead I just moved to LIC from Manhattan to get away from it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40567965) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 2:36 PM Author: Soul-stirring market yarmulke "people in williamsburg are there by choice, but i agree that all of long island city would move to MFH if they could afford it"
lol
yeah i'm sure all the people living in vinyl siding specials east of the BQE in williamsburg are there by choice, as opposed to people in LIC |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 3:28 PM Author: provocative deer antler kitty cat williamsburg is a destination neighborhood at this point and has been for quite a while. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40569036) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 3:34 PM Author: Soul-stirring market yarmulke it's a destination neighborhood for a small number of craft-beer-swilling brooklyn faggots. most people still consider it a dump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40569080) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 3:39 PM Author: Pontificating office And French people. The French love "Brooqueline" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40569104) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 5:04 PM Author: provocative deer antler kitty cat 2nd most spoken language in bk heights, cobble hill, and carroll gardens (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40569597) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 5:05 PM Author: Soul-stirring market yarmulke odd flex but ok
just one of the things that makes that corner of brooklyn incredibly insufferable |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 5:16 PM Author: provocative deer antler kitty cat not a flex, just saying that that's where the french live. they don't live in fucking williamsburg. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40569645) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 5:06 PM Author: Soul-stirring market yarmulke they're the fucking worst (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40569604) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 4:15 PM Author: provocative deer antler kitty cat it is a dump and i don't like it (williamsburg)
but it's still a destination neighborhood for young people and will remain one for some time. |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 4:04 PM Author: Flirting den yea i like my building in LIC. No desire to move now bc im in walking distance of my job and we may have to eventually go back. Only chance I move is if I can find a building with a basketball court for a reasonable price. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40569245) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:33 PM Author: Gaped Station Milk Williamsburg is decidedly "cool" to a certain group, but it's hard to imagine people continuing to gentrify places like Bed-Stuy or Bushwick. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40567817) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:35 PM Author: diverse kitty okay, W'Burg is bad example, but yeah there are plenty of others that would gladly pay Brooklyn rent to live in MFH (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40567829) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 2:40 PM Author: Soul-stirring market yarmulke it's not such a bad example, a huge part of williamsburg is a formerly italian ghetto shithole with ugly vinyl siding houses and not enough retail. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40568635) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:41 PM Author: Charismatic buck-toothed native Many of these places will sir vacate for months or even years before landlords accept more than 10% maybe 15% at most less rent. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40567862) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 1:57 PM Author: flesh trailer park TCR (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40568378) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 1:59 PM Author: brindle swollen principal's office yeah, because they own multiple properties, and if they cave in now, they will lose millions (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40568387) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 2:01 PM Author: flesh trailer park More like because they are funds and if their projected rent roll drops they have to revalue the entire fund which would cost the fund managers their jobs. A 10% vacancy rate wont cost anyone their job. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40568406) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 2:29 PM Author: Supple parlor pistol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40568566) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 2:44 PM Author: titillating famous landscape painting I have a hard time believing anyone would be so stupid as to think rents matter but occupancy doesn't.
Explain. |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 3:52 PM Author: flesh trailer park REIT multiples are based on AFFO.
AFFO is calculated by
AFFO = FFO + rent increases - capital expenditures - routine maintenance amounts
FFO is calculated by
FFO = net income + amortization + depreciation - capital gains from property sales
Rent increases in AFFO are a projection one year out. You take the hit in FFO from low occupancy in the current year but then by not adjusting down your projected rent roll you get to book rents that wont actually exist in AFFO. GAAP covers whats acceptable and not in terms of the specifics of when you have to adjust for the fact that your projected rent roll will never materialize but you can mask this shit for a very long time. |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 2:12 PM Author: haunting weed whacker kitchen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40568470) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 2:37 PM Author: Chocolate boyish hall rigor i'm not a RE masterman, but won't certain leveraged properties need to drop rent in order to service debt? that would have to ripple through the market, no? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40568612) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 3:05 PM Author: Pontificating office LOL no. They just won't pay, either.
That or RE taxes. |