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Ann Selzer explains her methodology: we weed out probable voters
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Date: November 3rd, 2024 1:23 PM Author: River of Blood "Our methodology is different than most pollsters. We hang up on people who say they are probably going to vote if they don't say they're 100% sure they're voting." (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48276162) |
Date: November 3rd, 2024 1:28 PM Author: .;:..;:;.:.;.,,,.,.:,.;;,;;;..;, How tf is she employed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48276183) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2024 1:29 PM Author: Cornel West Reasonably accurate poll results over four decades I think (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48276191) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2024 1:48 PM Author: River of Blood She says she doesn't analyze her data at all. She just calls people all over the state and only if they say they are 100000% likely to vote does she take down their vote. So it's got a built in enthusiasm measure. And she is now saying that among her REALLY REALLY HECKIN PUMPED TO VOTE sampling of Iowa, senior women are breaking hard for Kamala. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48276258) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2024 1:29 PM Author: First Woman Tactical Operator in NYSDEC History *rounds to zero* (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48276192) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2024 2:12 PM Author: River of Blood Selzer: only old people qualify in our poll. We're not expecting anyone under 65 to vote. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48276323) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2024 2:17 PM Author: peeface she also famously shitcans polls when the DNC calls her and asks her to, im not sure if that is in the standard fine print of her methodology
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Date: November 3rd, 2024 2:20 PM Author: River of Blood She has basically created an entirely new class of voter called Extremely Fucking Likely To Fucking Vote voter, ie white women over 65, and said well this is what the electorate looks like. It's all this type of person and only a handful of other people because they didn't convince me that they were balls to the wall enthused to shuffle over to the library at 2pm on a Tuesday.
And her defense of this woefully inept methodology is that it would be wrong of her to put her finger on her own data and tip the scales. In doing so she has tipped the scales towards inventing an electorate that doesn't exist. |
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Date: November 3rd, 2024 2:28 PM Author: Epistemic Humility Maybe. But also maybe not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48276367) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2024 11:17 PM Author: askav i can't w this shtick (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48278416) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2024 11:20 PM Author: ;..........,,,...,,.;.,,...,,,;.;. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48278441) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2024 6:11 PM Author: peeface and... it still only got her to +3 for Kamala in a state that was +6 Dem in 2012
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Date: November 4th, 2024 4:32 PM Author: Anus Boi Good point peeface. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48281916) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2024 2:29 PM Author: Epistemic Humility If you’re not sure you’re voting today you’re not voting.
That’s a reasonable position. She’s staking her reputation on it. She has skin in the game, as NNT would say. We’ll see what unfolds. |
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Date: November 3rd, 2024 2:31 PM Author: UN peacekeeper wouldn't it be more reasonable to include probable voters with a discount? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48276374) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2024 2:34 PM Author: Epistemic Humility Per my moniker, I’m gonna defer to the person who has been doing this for forty years. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48276380) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2024 2:35 PM Author: River of Blood Millions of people vote who say they would probably vote but they have a lot of shit to do today. How do you explain Emerson R+10 on the same day? Her snapshot of the electorate is completely and totally off base and it's not even a question that Trump will win Iowa comfortably. The only thing she captured was the enthusiasm of Boomer women who have all aged into the 65+ category. Which may or may not have an effect on the Blue Wall states. But it won't effect Iowa that's for sure. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48276383) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2024 2:41 PM Author: Epistemic Humility Why should I believe you when you cannot use affect/effect correctly? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48276399) |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 12:02 AM Author: River of Blood (Historical Faggot) I dated The Box (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48278550) |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 3:11 PM Author: Cornel West (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48281450) |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 4:03 PM Author: I'm gay tp Check fucking mate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48281759) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2024 2:45 PM Author: ..,,.,.,,,.,,,,.,.,.,,,..,,.,,..,, No she doesnt. No one is going to look at this poll ever again because Iowa isn't in play. Its the PERFECT way for her to help the DNC without fucking up her reputation. If she was wrong, she can point to other polls that were "accurate."
In 4 years when we are in the next cycle, no one is going to remember this Iowa thing. |
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Date: November 3rd, 2024 4:03 PM Author: Epistemic Humility How does it help Kamala to be up 3 in Iowa in one poll if that poll is in fact, fake? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48276676) |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 3:28 PM Author: Senior Ethics Official Hopium for the foot aoldiers (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48281564) |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 3:29 PM Author: River of Blood (Historical Faggot) tp (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48281569) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2024 2:41 PM Author: infraphysics is hetero "We only call Kamala supporters. We hang up otherwise" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48276400) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2024 2:43 PM Author: cannon “State your intention to vote before I engage you further” (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48276403) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2024 3:48 PM Author: River of Blood (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48276592) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2024 3:58 PM Author: cannon https://x.com/BeshearStan/status/1852879957959315650 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48276647) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2024 4:03 PM Author: Epistemic Humility (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48276678) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2024 4:05 PM Author: "'''''"'""'''"'"' I saw someone asking for an explanation of the cross tabs and someone replied "it's like she conducted the poll in San Francisco." (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48276683) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2024 5:04 PM Author: River of Blood (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48276939) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2024 4:05 PM Author: Institute for JDVanced Study "We only count people who are actually pulling the lever at the exact moment they answer the phone." (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48276682) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2024 5:04 PM Author: River of Blood Who turn out exclusively to be 65+ Boomer women foaming at the mouth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48276942) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2024 4:13 PM Author: "'''''"'''"""''''" Cons legit think she’s affecting outcomes by releasing this poll, or at least that she’s trying to and thinks she is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48276718) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2024 4:16 PM Author: Epistemic Humility It's wild. It's also wild every election to see so many poasters who seem like they've never been through an election before.
Many poasters had never heard of her until yesterday. |
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Date: November 3rd, 2024 4:22 PM Author: "'''''"'''"""''''" Wait until they see the wild fluctuations in betting markets on election night as results come in (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48276757) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2024 5:14 PM Author: River of Blood Her biggest claim to fame is that she predicted Obama would win Indiana by 1 in 2008. A true bombshell considering that in 2008 everyone was really concerned that Obama wasn't going to win an Electoral landslide. A true visionary and pioneer.
The truth is this lady has an extremely small sample size of a tiny part of the country that is never in the national news. And she like everyone else knows that Iowa is not going D+3 but if it's less than R+5 she'll claim a moral victory and if Kamala sweeps the Blue Wall states because of women and college educated whites and liberal boomers aging into the 65+ demo as their more conservative parents die off, she'll be heralded as a hero of the left for all time.
Meanwhile if Trump wins no one will even care to remember her and she'll be back in 4 years with her same happy go lucky attitude towards polling that no one else uses. |
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Date: November 3rd, 2024 4:16 PM Author: Slaanesh Her methodology is like if you looked at 2016 and 2020, noted the huge polling misses, and actively tried to double down on the issues that led to those misses. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48276738) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2024 4:40 PM Author: "'''''"'''"""''''" how was she so spot on in 2016 and 2020? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48276833) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2024 4:49 PM Author: the walter white of this generation (walt jr.) She's the undisputed single most prestigious state-level pollster in the nation (#1 ranked pollster overall by nate silver).
This obviously isn't what she does when she polls 6 weeks out. There's literally 1 day left to vote after weeks of early and absentee voting so if ppl are like "meh I'll probably vote" it makes sense not to include them in your LV screen at this point. |
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Date: November 3rd, 2024 5:06 PM Author: Epistemic Humility It’s entirely possibly she is wrong, but everyone attacking her motives is engaged in a huge cope. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48276949) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2024 5:12 PM Author: Slaanesh I don't think she's engaged in any kind of a psy op. She doesn't herd, she shows what she sees. More honest than many of the other pollsters with their thumbs on the scale.
But she backed into exactly the kind of shit that drove huge as fuck errors in 16 and 20. 1000% chance she massively oversampled elderly libs. Crosstabs likely show Harris winning older voters by some absurd margin, when he will inevitably carry them. |
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Date: November 3rd, 2024 5:12 PM Author: the walter white of this generation (walt jr.) She's far more likely than not "wrong" in the sense that kamala will probably not win iowa. The worry is that unless she's outlying in the wrong direction for fundamentally wrong reasons, TRUMP is fucked in the blue wall.
My hope is that that's true, and that she's compounding the usual TRUMP-voter undersampling (which she's not known for, but obviously is something that can happen to most pollsters if they don't take care to avoid it) with an LV screen that pumps up kamala unduly in a year where Dems are the high-propensity voters.
Obviously she fucking wants to be right/accurate, and every other motive she might have is like 1/10th of that at most. |
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Date: November 3rd, 2024 5:26 PM Author: River of Blood If there's a blue wave in Pennsylvania it will make a lot of left wing pollsters look horrible. It has been red for months on end. How were they missing the 'shy' elderly Boomer women? According to Ann, these people pick up the phone and scream that they are voting for Kamala. Hard to imagine even one of these people went uncontacted lol.
If Atlas Intel is right it will make the majority of lib pollsters look like partisan hacks. More likely than that the New York fucking Times couldn't find a 70 year old feminist. LOL |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 9:26 AM Author: "'''''"'''"""''''" Iowa is unique in that they actually outlawed abortion over the summer unlike the blue wall states (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48279539) |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 9:30 AM Author: River of Blood My God, the abortion ban! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48279567) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2024 5:27 PM Author: "'''''"'""'''"'"' If you look at the crosstabs, the shift to the left from seniors is simply hard to believe. They also indicate that the shift to the left by Republicans is more extreme than the shift from Independents. It's just a very difficult poll to believe on its face.
There are also questions about why it was leaked early to Democrats, but that's not necessarily nefarious. |
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Date: November 3rd, 2024 5:29 PM Author: River of Blood The fags at the Des Moines register saw the poll come across their desks and ran home like in a thriller and called every Dem operative they knew to maximize the impact in the news cycle. Not nefarious but expected. Hilarious than Pritzker is the first person they ran to. Obese RSF tier nepo baby. King of the Libwest (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48277035) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2024 5:33 PM Author: "'''''"'""'''"'"' Makes sense.
When people point to her track record, I always think the more credibility a pollster has, the more powerful their influence, which can be used or sold. In an election where libs think a candidate is Hitler and will end democracy, nothing is off the table |
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Date: November 3rd, 2024 5:39 PM Author: the walter white of this generation (walt jr.) Libs were crazier in 2016 and '20, and selzer published outlier polls in TRUMP's favor in those cycles (to be more precise, I recall she had an outlier poll for TRUMP in 2016, and since then similarly outlier-but-correct polls for joni ernst and (less consequentially, since he won by like 12) grassley since; I think she was accurate in 2020 but her polls weren't as shocking of an outlier from everyone else's). (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48277063) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2024 7:11 PM Author: "'''''"'""'''"'"' Ok but even then, how much were they off by?
And I dispute your assertion that libs were crazier then. In what way were they crazier? |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 3:03 PM Author: the walter white of this generation (walt jr.) I hate libs, but they've sapped all their energy and are running on sad, Jeb!-y fumes these days. They can't even finish a "TRUMP is a threat to are democracy" in the time that the old, 2019 libs would have had 7 different adjectives in there ("grave and existential", "orange buffoon", etc.).
They're straight-up scared/despondent about this election, whereas the 2016 Hillary supporters were like haughty crusaders on the road to jerusalem, unshakably convinced not only of the justness of their cause but that their righteousness would ensure their swift victory.
This unyielding pressure has forced them into relative moderation (elon's twitter acquisition also deserves some credit), and other than abortion -- which tbf to them is a libertarian priority that was codified into law for 50 years -- they spend all of their time apologizing for / lying about who they are. You just don't see that MasksUp / Defund the Police / A SheCock for Every Child / open agitation to abolish the First Amendment shit that you saw during TRUMP's potusy. Not to anywhere near the same level. Even #MeToo got moderated. |
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Date: November 3rd, 2024 6:53 PM Author: Epistemic Humility This. Everyone who thinks it's shocking that the Governor of Iowa found out what was in this poll before publication - while simultaneously believing every trumpy conspiracy theory - is a noob. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48277339) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2024 5:36 PM Author: the walter white of this generation (walt jr.) There's roughly a 100% chance the leak was on the client's side. And tbf, if I was a lib DMR editor who's had to watch my once quintessentially swing state red-shift itself out of Dem graces to the point where it lost its 1st-in-the-nation caucus status, I would want to fire this off to as many lib campaigns as possible so as to relive the intense pain that my 4.3" DIAMOND-HARD boner caused when encased in a 3.5" cock cage. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48277052) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2024 5:16 PM Author: the place where there is no darkness *hands u a CPI basket of iPads and Arizona Iced Tea* (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48276984) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2024 11:19 PM Author: askav (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48278434) |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 12:46 AM Author: gedood persoon https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1853236355834519718 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48278641) |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 12:47 AM Author: River of Blood Nah I watched this clip in the longer video. It was really confusing. It meant something completely different. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48278642) |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 9:29 AM Author: solace and wallace lol the guy interviewing her completely misread that the tweet
He thought it meant sampling sizes (a common criticism of polls that don’t go you’re way) when the tweet was just about the results
It was a valid question to add in that context |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 9:28 AM Author: ceci n'est pas un avocat This is how doodikoff should approach tinder not flame (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48279553) |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 3:11 PM Author: Cornel West MFCR (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48281446) |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 3:13 PM Author: Epistemic Humility (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48281466) |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 3:28 PM Author: Judas Jones (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48281560) |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 3:18 PM Author: LathamTouchedMe A lot of other polls have shown a huge disparity this cycle between "100% voters" and lower levels of probable voters. Trump is usually leading big among the lower tier likely voters with Harris up with the top level. This could be the year her polling is off because the candidate disparity between these likely voter groups is so great. I would love for her to be right, but I still think it's a 2020 slugfest. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48281495) |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 3:25 PM Author: River of Blood (Historical Faggot) Word salad ESL/10 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48281543) |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 3:40 PM Author: LathamTouchedMe bold statement considering your confusion on affect/effect upthread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48281634) |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 4:30 PM Author: Epistemic Humility (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48281908) |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 3:26 PM Author: labs why do we keep talking about this birdbrain (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48281554) |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 3:29 PM Author: River of Blood (Historical Faggot) Relatable phenotype for millions of women (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48281573) |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 3:58 PM Author: ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, I keep chuckling about Jen Psaki and Pete Buttigieg treating Selzer's poll as serious breaking news. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48281720) |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 4:09 PM Author: .,.,...,..,.,..:,,:,......,;:.,.:..:.,:,::,. Why do polls get political addicts so upset? It’s just a prediction that she will be held accountable for if it turns out to be wrong. Her reputation is on the line. No one is deciding to vote or not vote based on Selzer’s poll results. The only people who even know about it are extreme politics addicts who have probably already voted or were already planning to vote on Election Day. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48281782) |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 4:31 PM Author: Epistemic Humility *hangs up on you* (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48281911) |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 4:38 PM Author: SpEd with a 3.9 GPA in a TTT major attending Boalt (nof@chicks.com) There’s a nonzero chance that she is knowingly cashing in her reputation for the highly marginal increase in the chances of Kamala winning due to a handful of additional Kamala voters thinking Iowa is in play and showing up to the polls. I doubt this is the reason, but it’s a possibility. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48281956) |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 4:52 PM Author: "'''''"'""'''"'"' But people don't forget about it. The next election, the polls that got it wrong will still be there (albeit with slightly less credibility), but the "good" polls will be the ones that were the least wrong last election. And they absolutely influence the news cycle and voter turnout. They can demoralize or energize. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623886&forum_id=2#48282044) |