Should I pay student debt or buy stocks?
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Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 14th, 2017 2:46 PM Author: alcoholic pea-brained locus
I make ~100k in a chill midwest job
50k student debt at weighted average 5.8%. Some of the accounts are around 6.5%.
Options:
1) Start paying off the 6.5% loans ASAP. Since these are after tax dollars, it is the equivalent of making 7.5-8% in the stock market before capital gains taxes. 0 risk, 0 effort, 0 correlation to the stock market. Credit score immediately goes up. Refinance the rest at a lower rate.
2) Put the money into my portfolio (BOFI+covered calls, INBK, ALLY, AER) which I think should make 15-20% a year in the long run
3) Use half of new income to pay loans, half into stocks
What would you do? ty
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3828996&forum_id=2#34919138) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:55 PM Author: alcoholic pea-brained locus
What? The idea is that I'm fairly confident I can pick value stocks that can make 15% a year, even in this market.
The problem is to evaluate the risk/return tradeoff of doing this given that the alternative (paying down debt) is so attractive.
Since I am ~30 years old, even a small misstep here can have huge effects down the road.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3828996&forum_id=2#34919218) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:59 PM Author: alcoholic pea-brained locus
If you study those 4 stocks, I should be able to get 8-10% from the earnings yield alone.
If the internet banks continue to grow at their current clip, Then 15-20% is very doable.
As for Aercap, they have a very simple business. Buy a plane, lease it out at a 7-8% yield. Use 4:1 leverage to enhance returns. Their next 5 years of earnings growth are pretty much already guaranteed, because the leases are already signed. When you buy AER, you are just buying a bunch of aircraft at their book/appraised value.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3828996&forum_id=2#34919249) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 3:32 PM Author: alcoholic pea-brained locus
Haha
BELIEVE
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3828996&forum_id=2#34919532)
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:53 PM Author: haunting old irish cottage
#1
Number two is hilarious. Just do 15-20% returns bro
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3828996&forum_id=2#34919200) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 3:37 PM Author: alcoholic pea-brained locus
Dude
You have to attach a probability distribution to the returns
Say, the continuously compounded return is Normal with mean 15% and standard deviation of like 20-25%
It's not a stupid question
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3828996&forum_id=2#34919574) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 3:09 PM Author: alcoholic pea-brained locus
Was in grad school with no income
Did not pay much attention to threads here
Thought all that crap had topped out
From a fundamental value perspective, which crypto is the best? I don't like that crap about it needing 6 days worth of home electricity consumption to verify a single transaction.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3828996&forum_id=2#34919326) |
Date: December 14th, 2017 5:36 PM Author: sepia toaster
1. Discount what you think is a fixed debt cost by the chance that millenials will eventually vote into office politicians who reduce / forgive / provide preferential tax treatment to education debt. And inflation.
2. Discount your 15% to 20% ROI estimate by reality.
3. Compare the returns.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3828996&forum_id=2#34920607) |
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