Virusfraudmos: 55,000 dead in the US today. Imagine if we didn't social distance
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Date: April 26th, 2020 1:39 PM Author: Floppy slimy range
i've read up on it a lot.
a virus running unchecked to 20% infection rate is a pretty fucking bad scenario. by that point, the R0 starts declining substantially because of the high prevalence rate in the population. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1252680119489003521
the situation in NYC hospitals isn't ideal but they've had problems for years. NYC has had one of the lowest beds per population ratios in the country for years. but do you dispute that they did not go officially over hospital capacity?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40097009) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 1:59 PM Author: Floppy slimy range
a) without a real endgame, the lockdown is not saving the lives of people at risk of infection, it's just delaying their infection somewhat. there is no real endgame to get from hundreds of thousands of active cases to zero. Birx said today it would take a technological breakthrough to get testing to the scale necessary for test and trace. and that's setting aside the fact that we'd need to hire hundreds of thousands of people for a new contact-tracing bureaucracy (at least that's what virusbadmos on Twitter like Noah Smith and Trevor Bedford tell me).
b) it takes a lot of unreasonable assumptions to conclude that all other studies on IFR showing a rate of 0.2%-0.4% are wrong and that the NYC IFR will apply everywhere else, as well as to massage the NYC IFR up to 1%
c) $8 trillion in wealth evaporating in the US, as well as not vaccinating 117 million children worldwide, and not sending kids to schools, and delaying elective medical procedures by months, will have ramifications that will lead to many many dead. and that needs to be balanced against whatever lives might potentially be saved, especially considering that the young people is hitting young people the hardest, while the majority of COVID-19 deaths have multiple underlying conditions and 75% have two or more underlying conditions.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40097130) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 2:21 PM Author: Spectacular Nibblets
a) why not just re-purpose the census workers?
b) the other studies of low prevalence populations have issues with false positives
c) a $5-6 trillion deficit in 2020 is huge but it's an emergency and a one time deal. interest rates are low. there are lots of ramifications to a quarantine including other ways that lives are saved from reduced car accidents to heart attacks.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40097263) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 2:31 PM Author: Floppy slimy range
a) maybe because we still need to perform the census in order to avoid violating the constitution? and we somehow need to take people that had to be trained for months to knock on doors and count people and transform them into contact-tracing detectives in a matter of weeks?
b) you keep ignoring that two of the studies are not in low prevalence populations--Gangelt in Germany (15% prevalence) and Chelsea in Massachusetts (32% prevalence). the miami study's prevalence (6%) was high enough relative to false positive rates (~0.5%-2.5%) that the mortality rate could be no higher than 0.27%.
c) it's not just the deficit, people are going bankrupt and losing their livelihoods over this and their businesses are being ruined. the projected unemployment rate for 2021 is 9%. It took six years to recover all the jobs lost in the last recession.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40097324) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 2:37 PM Author: Spectacular Nibblets
a) I meant it more as an example hundreds of thousands could be hired on a temporary basis. I'm sure not everyone has to be a technical expert.
b) What are the details of those 2 studies?
c) I think a hasty return to business will be accompanied by a spike in cases with negative effects on the consumer economy. Easing the lock down isn't going to make the economic effects go away. The best approach would have been a decisive lockdown for 6 weeks that got rid of the virus and left the borders closed afterwards. But Fox News morons and red state governors got in the way of that ever succeeding.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40097371) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 2:45 PM Author: Floppy slimy range
a) you realize it takes the census bureau 10 years to prepare to mobilize hundreds of thousands of temporary employees? and they start hiring and training more than 6 months before the actual census?
b) you can look them up yourself, but additionally i remembered that the miami study, which was a true randomized sample, had a prevalence of 6% and IFR of 0.15%. Assuming that the false positive rate is 2.5% (the upper bound given by objectors to the Santa Clara study such as Trevor Bedford), that still results in an IFR of 0.26% at most. again, look that study up yourself.
c) easing the lockdown to allow all manufacturing and construction to resume would absolutely make some of the economic effects go away. there is no reason for these businesses to be closed. we made the lockdown much more severe than it needed to be. and if a more decisive lockdown had been feasible in a country with a bill of rights like the USA, morons like Cuomo and Murphy would've done it. They literally blew their wad in those states and cases only started going down once prevalences started going over 20% in the NYC metro region, as herd immunity models would suggest.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40097418) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 1:58 PM Author: Chest-beating foreskin stag film
Sure but even in places where it isnt binding a lot of people followed it.
This is why I find issue with the "but sweden" argument. We are not swedes, and they are social distancing a lot it's just not on lockdown.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40097125)
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Date: April 26th, 2020 4:39 PM Author: exhilarant maroon headpube shrine
We actually know exactly what would happen--almost nothing. Because we have multiple case studies to prove it.
1. Gangelt, Germany, where 15% have the virus & IFR of 0.37%: https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/09/999015/blood-tests-show-15-of-people-are-now-immune-to-covid-19-in-one-town-in-germany/
2. Boston homeless shelter (i.e., running loose in close quarters), 50% tested positive, basically all asymptomatic: https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/us/boston-homeless-coronavirus-outbreak/index.html
3. State prison study (i.e., running loose in close quarters), 90%+ tested positive, 96%+ asymptomatic: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-prisons-testing-in-idUSKCN2270RX
These studies go on and on, obviously much smaller in the city testing (LA, Santa Clara, Boston street testing), but these, like the cruise ship studies, show us one thing: even when the disease runs rampant (at least, among "typical" populations, not in senior citizen centers), the fatality rate is exceedingly low (by "low," I mean comparable to a bad flu season).
By the way, given that we have (1) a vaccine, (2) antivirals, (3) competent emergency medical treatment, and (4) no "load" problems when it comes to the flu, we should be surprised that the flu kills *so many* relative to the coronavirus. And if that's the case, maybe we should start locking down for the heck of it every winter.
And, of course, these paranoid fantasies of people staying at home are actively willing to kill people of cancer due to lack of diagnosis, depression-related suicide, heart attacks that patients avoided treatment in hospitals, child abuse and neglect, increases to obesity-related illness, and other causes of death directly attributable to the "lockdowns." Maybe we'd have more coronavirus-related deaths if we opened up (but the "science" says that's unlikely). But we'd also see a drop in others.
But whatever. I'm sure the latest r/ or Twitter thread of Seth Abramson or celebrity ad streaming on Hulu are probably right, we'd have *billions* dead if we did nothing.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40097967) |
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Date: April 27th, 2020 2:40 PM Author: contagious plaza
"Hundreds of thousands of deaths over the next several months are being prevented"
They are not. This spreads like a wildfire and sooner or later everyone is going to get it. So you're not saving anyone.
"The unemployment is temporary."
No, it is long-term. Businesses are failing and jobs are disappearing. We have a national debt that is out of control at this point. People who shrug and say "we'll print money just like Weimar Germany but we're America so we won't suffer any consequences" went full retard in the end.
"The debt is vast with the deficit at least $5 trillion this year but low interest rates make it manageable."
LOL.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4520069&forum_id=2#40103579)
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