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This dump's obsession with Predictit is retarded
Poast new message in this thread
Date: July 29th, 2024 12:26 PM Author: Bistre Faggotry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905204) |
Date: July 29th, 2024 12:28 PM Author: orange twisted keepsake machete PredictIt is 180. It tells you in real time how people with skin in the game are reacting to polls and the latest news (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905207) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 1:01 PM Author: bateful base headpube oh the <$1k skin! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905344) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 1:01 PM Author: orange twisted keepsake machete that’s like 10% of their annual after tax income so yeah it’s a lot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905345) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 1:05 PM Author: bateful base headpube Oh, the opinions of poors who gamble more than they should! Very accurate! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905356) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 1:22 PM Author: Snowy center You can only buy $1000 of each position? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905434) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 1:57 PM Author: Fragrant Roommate $800 on every contract
Trump yes/no
Kamala yes/no
Biden yes/no
All are separate positions |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 8:09 PM Author: Snowy center If insiders can't put big money down, it's predictive value seems suspect. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47906736) |
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Date: July 30th, 2024 8:16 AM Author: orange twisted keepsake machete It’s the opposite actually. One big bet on one side skews the odds significantly even though that’s just one person’s opinion. That’s why polymarket is lopsided by comparison. “Insiders” don’t know more than anyone else when it comes to who will win elections. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47907950) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 12:29 PM Author: Ocher passionate theater Predicit is kinda bullshit and always has been tbh. Too prone to irrationality and directional bias and manipulation.
Back in 2012 Romneybots used Predicted to say "see, he has a 45% chance of winning!!" even though it was insanely obvious he was going to get stomped
KAMALA is the Romney of this election |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 12:35 PM Author: orange twisted keepsake machete 45% seems about right for Romney going into Nov 2012 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905244) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 8:14 PM Author: Unholy bespoke crackhouse ur retarded (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47906749) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 12:32 PM Author: Bat shit crazy appetizing gas station ape it's probably the most accurate metric on how people feel at any given moment.
polls are dumb. the sample sizes aren't huge and who is picking up unknown numbers in 2024? and there is no skin in the game. |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 12:36 PM Author: Ocher passionate theater (statistics mastermind) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905249) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 12:41 PM Author: Bat shit crazy appetizing gas station ape "trust the science!" - guy ignoring how poorly polls reflected outcomes over the last decade.
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Date: July 29th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: provocative sooty gay wizard They were like at most 2.5% off for decades.
Biden was 60/40 on PredictIt to be the nominee two weeks ago. Ljl. |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 12:54 PM Author: Bat shit crazy appetizing gas station ape which indicated that two weeks ago about 60% of people thought biden would be nominee, which is likely true.
my point is that both predicit and polls reflect how people are thinking at the moment. and i think predicit often does a better job than polling. but regardless, both of them just capture how people feel at that moment. in the same way the price of stock reflects how people feel about it at any given time, not a reflection of it's intrinsic value or future performance. |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 12:55 PM Author: provocative sooty gay wizard So we learned that 60% of polysci redditors and degenerative online gamblers were REALLY wrong and unable to read the tea leaves moments before the obvious happened? Hmm wish I put more stock in what THESE IDIOTS think after all they have skin in the game! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905324) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 12:59 PM Author: Bat shit crazy appetizing gas station ape two weeks ago you were relying on predicitit with absolute certainty that the dems were picking kamala to intentionally tank the election to "save face."
regardless of whether what they predicted occurred, it's a good tool to see what people think will happen in the future. i.e. what people feel at any given moment. which is what i said from the beginning. i don't think polls or predictit are particularly good at actually predicating outcomes. only predicitit even seeks to do that -- polls are expressly about taking the temperature of how people feel at any moment in time. everyone knows polls will shift over time, it's essentially guaranteed. |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 1:03 PM Author: provocative sooty gay wizard Dems definitely picked Kamala to save face win or lose they look a lot more competent than they did before. I have no recollection of relying entirely on PredictIt but to the extent I referenced it it was because I don't jerk off to politicths all day and was still in the "haha holy shit" camp of bystanders like everyone else with a life.
An election forecaster like Nate Silver is by far the best we have, someone who can dig into the minutae of polls and weight them based on quality. Nate is tremendously accurate and gave Trump like a 43% chance in 2016 when the entire rest of the media said impossible. His techniques are legit and he has the right type of autism to interpret polls. He seldomly references betting markets but does not rely on them. |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 1:21 PM Author: Bat shit crazy appetizing gas station ape none of that is incongruent what what ive said.
predicitit is a market like any other. it's good tool for seeing how people feel at any given moment. |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 1:30 PM Author: provocative sooty gay wizard and how people feel in the moment has terribly low predictive power (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905459) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 9:03 PM Author: Pea-brained hot affirmative action mental disorder (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47906950) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 12:40 PM Author: provocative sooty gay wizard I disagree. I think betting markets are extremely dumb. They react to people's hysteria. Betting markets are often wildly wrong and react to people's emotions. A couple weeks ago Biden was up really high as people thought he wasn't dropping out. It turns out people are often wrong.
Another way to view betting markets is like an emotional snapshot of how people feel about the stock market less its intrinsic value. It would be like if you could somehow capture how people feel about a certain stock less what it was actually worth. To that end it's a horribly unreliable metric. |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 12:41 PM Author: Ocher passionate theater cr it's closer to crypto or meme stocks than anything else (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905265) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 12:42 PM Author: provocative sooty gay wizard Ljl at anyone who puts stock in someone "buying Buttigieg" because they could "100x their money" having any real world predictive power.
I mean, people bet on the Jets to win the Super Bowl. Every year. It doesn't mean the Jets are going to win the Super Bowl. It's just dumb people's feelings. |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 12:43 PM Author: Bat shit crazy appetizing gas station ape that's exactly what i said -- it's a great snapshot into how people *feel* at any given moment. probably better than polling because it captures a larger audience and people have skin in the game.
that doesn't mean it's a good predictor of what will happen in november. it is a good indicator of how people are feeling at this moment. |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 12:46 PM Author: provocative sooty gay wizard Right and polls have vastly more predictive power than a snapshot of how people feel. Kamala is almost certainly overvalued in the betting market because libs are excited about her. That has no bearing on whether she will win. It's a snapshot of their excitement level. People get excited when the Jets start the season 2-2 but it doesn't MEAN anything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905282) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 12:52 PM Author: Bat shit crazy appetizing gas station ape how does a poll capture how people will feel in the future more accurately than people betting on what will occur in the future? both are based on how people feel *right now*.
also, trump is about 3 cents ahead of kamala on predicitit, which is about consistent with the RCP average (trump +1.7) and latest national polls (trump +2). so both predicitit and polling seems approximately aligned at the moment. |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 12:54 PM Author: provocative sooty gay wizard Right so sometimes it's in tune with the polling and sometimes it's way off. But the polls are far more consistently accurate. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905319) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 1:02 PM Author: orange twisted keepsake machete No Biden has been below 40% since June and most of that time was in the 20s (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905348) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 1:04 PM Author: provocative sooty gay wizard He briefly shot up to like 60% a few days before it was all over. It was around the time Mayor Pete went on TV and said Biden would never step down. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905354) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 12:39 PM Author: Hateful therapy macaca they remember their nerd professor’s excitement over the “theoretically maximal predictive power” of such a market in undergrad and naively cling to this academic trope in an attempt to signal intelligence. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905257) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 12:43 PM Author: harsh pisswyrm so you're constantly taking advantage of mispriced markets there, right? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905273) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 1:48 PM Author: orange twisted keepsake machete (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905520) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 12:44 PM Author: Lime frozen fortuitous meteor They cap your exposure to a single contract at $850, take 10% of profit and charge a *5%* withdrawal fee. Plus the site crashes constantly on election night and the CFTC might shut them down. Probably not a lot of serious people wasting time with it (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905274) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Bistre Faggotry It's Reddit level fags betting on politics (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905293) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 12:49 PM Author: provocative sooty gay wizard I really like it here (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905298) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 12:47 PM Author: Frisky background story Polymarket > predictit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905289) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 12:49 PM Author: provocative sooty gay wizard Sup Nate how's it hangin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905294) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 12:57 PM Author: crimson yapping potus its a load of bs and no one with a brain would buy a "contract" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905331) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 12:58 PM Author: provocative sooty gay wizard (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47905334) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 6:20 PM Author: hideous galvanic factory reset button stead I made like $200 off of Trumpmos in late-November 2020 who thought the audit was gonna reverse the AZ Senate result (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47906394) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 1:32 PM Author: maroon boyish jew school cafeteria but the place that takes the poll numbers and then filters them through a bunch of gambling addicts gives us the least bad numbers for kamala, so we like it.
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Date: July 29th, 2024 5:21 PM Author: Hairraiser cuckoldry patrolman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47906173) |
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Date: July 30th, 2024 1:51 AM Author: Amethyst Preventive Strike Boiling Water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47907640) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 5:06 PM Author: lascivious masturbator seems like the go-to for a redditor who struggles to really "get" Nate Silver's analysis (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47906103) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 5:08 PM Author: provocative sooty gay wizard False, Nate is a YUGE Polymarket stan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47906112) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 6:13 PM Author: mustard university azn Nate Silver pointed out that polymart or whatever has like a 20 point difference in presidential odds than predictit.
That in itself shows it can't be taken seriously. There obviously isn't any smart money associated with it otherwise those gaps would be filled right away |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 6:30 PM Author: provocative sooty gay wizard Cr (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47906413) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 7:24 PM Author: crimson yapping potus theres like 20% in fees and you owe taxes too. obviously theres no smart money involved. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47906514) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 7:27 PM Author: insecure sienna fat ankles (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47906527) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 8:14 PM Author: Unholy bespoke crackhouse Predictit always has a con bias because most degenerate gamblers are also conservatives. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47906752) |
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Date: July 30th, 2024 1:34 AM Author: maroon boyish jew school cafeteria no, most degenerate gamblers are chinks. followed by shitlib white men. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47907638) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 8:16 PM Author: supple citrine associate sanctuary It has a terrible track record and its only usefulness I can see is its speed (a development will affect contract prices immediately, whereas polling takes a week or so to catch up).
So I guess if you're aware something happened but don't want to take the time to learn about it yourself and develop a judgment that's better than the HERD OF RETARDS on predictit, but you need to know how it'll affect a race, you can go to predictit to see what the plugged-in-moron brigade is thinking. |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 8:16 PM Author: Splenetic public bath dysfunction Remember when Trump was at 99c at 3am Election Night 2020? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47906756) |
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Date: July 30th, 2024 12:53 AM Author: harsh pisswyrm no (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47907592) |
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Date: July 30th, 2024 1:03 AM Author: marvelous lettuce I remember it was at 92 cents and then I went to sleep. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47907608) |
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Date: July 30th, 2024 1:04 AM Author: supple citrine associate sanctuary No because this didn't happen. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47907609) |
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Date: July 30th, 2024 4:42 AM Author: Splenetic public bath dysfunction It did, and then the water mane broke (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47907723) |
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Date: July 30th, 2024 7:13 AM Author: Snowy center The red mirage? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47907856) |
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Date: July 30th, 2024 2:01 AM Author: Amethyst Preventive Strike Boiling Water Could've deleted the 3rd - 6th words (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5566256&forum_id=2#47907650) |