I think Pennsylvania might be in the midst of becoming a red state long term
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Date: October 25th, 2024 10:09 AM Author: I know that you are from Canada tp
Some reasons to believe it's becoming more like Ohio.
So 60% of the population live in Philly/Pitt/Philly suburbs. 40% rural. Obviously the rural are all Trumpmos.
But I think one of the main things is that Philly isn't as shitlib as other shitlib cities. It's not like DC which is full of foaming shitlibs.
Philly is a different animal. It's substantially poorer and more working class than other northeast cities. And the suburbs are more purple.
All it takes is anything less than buckwild enthusiasm from urban and suburban Dems to sink Kamala. And we can already see the early voting is down. If this realignment around class is true and some blacks go for Trump as well as white working class, this might be a coalition that could work together long into the future.
Trump by 2-3 pts plus McCormick by 1 seems very real. PA might have a future as a red state.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48238535) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 10:15 AM Author: I know that you are from Canada tp
Shapiro is a really talented politician. And change takes time.
Dr. Oz was one of the worst candidates ever. McCormick is the opposite of him.
Things are evolving in real time. MAGA is slightly different than it was before. It's more big tent politics than scorched Earth. Every election is different and unique.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48238566) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 10:16 AM
Author: .,..,.,.;,.,,:,.,.,::,...,..,:,..;,..,
tbf McCormick sucks shit also
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48238572) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 10:20 AM
Author: .,..,.,.;,.,,:,.,.,::,...,..,:,..;,..,
that the GOP keeps nominating these zillionaire cumfarters to unsuccessfully try to appeal to mainline cunts? yea kind of.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48238593) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 10:22 AM
Author: .,..,.,.;,.,,:,.,.,::,...,..,:,..;,..,
I watched the debate with him and Casey and he seemed like a huge fag
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48238605) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 10:45 AM Author: Drunkard
PA needs the republican equivalent of Federman to run and win. Not rich carpet baggers.
Also, I don’t think I can possible express how corrupt Philly is, how big the democrat machine is in Philly and the burbs, and how shitlib lots of the main line and bucks county are. That being said, TRUMP loves the blacks and Puerto Ricans and I know a lot of both who are voting for him. In particular I think TRUMP will see big gains with Hispanics (most of whom in PA are PRs and to a lesser extent, Dominicans, not Mexicans) because they hate voting for women and won’t vote for Kamala like they did Biden (who they voted for because he was catholic and vaguely blue collar like). Also, PRs hate the illegals and have no incentive to support illegal immigration like some other Hispanics to get family over because they are all citizens.
To put it in perspective, if you drive around the rich areas it is at least 10 to 1 Harris signs over TRUMP, but you do see maybe 1/3 as many McCormick signs as Harris/Casey signs. You go to the boonies it’s 10 to 1 TRUMP signs.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48238718) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 11:45 AM Author: peeface
"Casey is like Bush in Texas."
this seems to be the opposite of the point you were trying to make
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48239037)
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Date: October 25th, 2024 10:15 AM Author: """'""""''
There it is... the Trumpmo admission that they are the party of dumb proles: "Philly is a different animal. It's substantially poorer and more working class"
As to the substantive analysis. LOL no. At BEST, it will continue to be a purple state. The only parts of the state that are growing are ALL trending blue. Philly area, Lancaster, Cumberland, etc.
And The ONLY time PA is competitive is when Trump himself is on the ballot. Cons have lost EVERY statewide election in the last 6 years.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48238564) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 10:17 AM
Author: .,..,.,.;,.,,:,.,.,::,...,..,:,..;,..,
you are a 55 year old jewish homosexual
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48238577) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 10:55 AM
Author: .,.,...,..,.,.,:,,:,..,:::,.,.,:,.,.:.,:.,:.::,.
but penn is prole
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48238769) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 2:13 PM Author: To be fair (Semi-Retarded)
To be fair,
Dems in 2004: "FUCK DICK CHENEY, AND FUCK RICH PEOPLE!"
Dems in 2024:"FUCK POOR PROLES, PS DICK CHENEY LOVES US!"
A bold move... let's see if it pays off. Just wait two weeks!
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48239782) |
Date: October 25th, 2024 10:26 AM Author: '"'"'"''"
I think there's also something to be said about Biden's PA/DE roots. Delaware is essentially a Philly suburb, so he was seen as kind of a long time "hometown kid." He's also from Scranton originally.
Might not be a huge boost, but he lost PA by 80k votes (after Republicans won in 2016) so every bit helped him.
Kamala and Walz don't have that benefit in PA.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48238633)
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Date: October 25th, 2024 2:15 PM Author: To be fair (Semi-Retarded)
To be fair,
How dare you spread this kind of misinformation about the privileged half Black half Indian child of egghead academics who grew up in Canada.
Kamala spent two weeks working at McDonalds one time! (She claimed, without evidence.)
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48239787) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 10:30 AM
Author: .,.,..,,.,,.,.;:,,.,...,:::,.,.,:,.,.:.,:.,:.::..
Trump won PA in 2016 due to his strength in NEPA which is an exurb of NYC. Trump lost some of his northeastern appeal when he moved to FL, but his quasi-northeastern appeal still had him run a competitive race vs. Biden.
Harris as a Calfiornian/Westerner can't compete with Trump's quasi-northeastern home region affiliation.
Casey is also winning easily due to NEPA, PA elections are determined by NEPA, not the Philly Suburbs as Schumer & Co. thought in 2016.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48238643) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 10:43 AM
Author: .,.,..,,.,,.,.;:,,.,...,:::,.,.,:,.,.:.,:.,:.::..
Mcginty would've won had she been from NEPA instead of the Philly Suburbs. GOP would've been better off spending their hype money on Lake vs. sabotaging her. Lake barely lost in 2022 in contrast to Mccormick who would've lost as badly as Oz did.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48238707) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 11:42 AM
Author: .,..,.,.;,.,,:,.,.,::,...,..,:,..;,..,
RATE twice failed GOP house candidate Lisa Scheller's tastefully decorated house that just sold for $1.9M
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/751-Benner-Rd-Allentown-PA-18104/9610077_zpid/
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48239025) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 11:37 AM
Author: .,..,.,.;,.,,:,.,.,::,...,..,:,..;,..,
NEPA is not a fucking exurb of NYC you dipshit
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48239001) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 11:46 AM
Author: .,.,..,,.,,.,.;:,,.,...,:::,.,.,:,.,.:.,:.,:.::..
The Port Jervis/Matamoras area counts as part of the NYC Metropolitan Area.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48239046) |
Date: October 25th, 2024 10:41 AM
Author: .,.,.;;,;.,..,:,,:,...,:::,...,:,.,.;.:...:.,:.::,
philly is full of minorities and shitlibs, of both the poor and moneyed kind
it's not even as red as queens, for which you can kind of make this argument but which doesn't stop it from going +40 dem
it will always be a barrier to PA going red. PA is just a matter of which side of the state has higher turnout.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48238698) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 10:51 AM
Author: .,.,.;;,;.,..,:,,:,...,:::,...,:,.,.;.:...:.,:.::,
just look at the map from 2020: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/upshot/2020-election-map.html
another analogy is pittsburgh, which better suits what you're describing, and still goes heavily dem except for the suburbs (which is a difference from philly, whose suburbs are rich and jewish, not genuinely working class like pittsburgh).
if philly ever turns at all, the real story will be blacks turning on the democratic party and it will be a theme that plays out beyond just philly. and that will happen this year but it is probably a trend unique to these two candidates.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48238743) |
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Date: October 25th, 2024 11:03 AM Author: Drunkard
You are missing a few things. Biden was nominally Catholic and that’s worth something. Minorities, especially Hispanics, don’t like voting for women and they are >8% of PA. Jews are turning to TRUMP, not completely, but some.
The real killer is the Karens, main line Protestants, Fishtown 30 something women wearing carhartt beanies, and gays. Philly gentrifying and cleaning up is actually helping dems as the hellscape is limited to discrete areas so they don’t see the consequences of the disastrous dem policies on a daily basis. Also not helpful that fewer and fewer people have kids so they don’t see or care about the failed schools (although TBF Philly does a decent job with magnet schools so it’s not the death sentence it was 20 years ago to live in Philly and send your kids to public school).
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48238806)
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Date: October 25th, 2024 3:59 PM Author: I know that you are from Canada tp
Date: October 25th, 2024 3:52 PM
Author: Fry Mumia
You lost me at McCormick +1. I am going to have to go bet on Casey now because I shit my pants laughing so hard and am now out an expensive pair of slacks.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48240380)
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617885&forum_id=2#48240447) |
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