The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
|
 |
 
 5 posters qualify.
You have 0 points. Copying this list does not send funds. Paste it on Disperse, then connect your wallet there. |
But I was assured the prediction markets don’t predict anything
| ,.,.,.,.,,.,..,:,,:,,.,:,.,,.,:.,,.:.,:.,:.::,. | 11/03/26 |
| .,.,.,,.,,..,,,.,.,...,.,,.,. | 11/03/26 |
| a New York Times analysis of Reddit posts | 11/03/26 |
| ferengi | 11/03/26 |
| a New York Times analysis of Reddit posts | 11/03/26 |
| ,.,.,.,.,,.,..,:,,:,,.,:,.,,.,:.,,.:.,:.,:.::,. | 11/03/26 |
| Daft Unc | 11/03/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: November 3rd, 2026 7:59 PM Author: ,.,.,.,.,,.,..,:,,:,,.,:,.,,.,:.,,.:.,:.,:.::,. the box and that retard Historical American were particularly adamant about it (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918070&forum_id=2#50227927) |
Date: November 3rd, 2026 7:59 PM Author: .,.,.,,.,,..,,,.,.,...,.,,.,. they are easily the most accurate measure we have (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918070&forum_id=2#50227932) |
|
Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:01 PM Author: a New York Times analysis of Reddit posts The don't predict anything - they distill consensus and there is in fact wisdom in the crowds.
You can see how terrible they are at predictions in all the ones where they are whipsawing.
The should be called Consensus Markets, but that's not sexy. |
 |
Date: November 3rd, 2026 9:51 PM Author: ferengi i agree with everything you've said in these threads so i don't see what your problem with MY position is.
my point is that it's a measure of public opinion of who's gonna win, which on election night is downstream of results, so - aside from drama purposes - it seems more useful to link to results and projections to track the races. or at the very least, my point is that it's retarded to characterize the betting market odds as measures of probability like some poasters are. |
|
Date: November 3rd, 2026 9:53 PM Author: a New York Times analysis of Reddit posts Because there are 9000 relevant facts going on - vote tallies in a some Indiana county can be relevant to the California governor's race. Prediction markets synthesize that faster and more quickly.
As an example, the thing I am currently tracking is Dem total House seats. We're not going to know the relevant vote totals in California for a week. But there's enough data for motivated traders to take a position on whether it's going to be Dems 250 or Dems 255. |
|
Date: November 3rd, 2026 9:46 PM Author: ,.,.,.,.,,.,..,:,,:,,.,:,.,,.,:.,,.:.,:.,:.::,. great insights dipshits
https://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5917339&mc=51&forum_id=2#50222604 |
|
Date: November 3rd, 2026 9:49 PM Author: Daft Unc You look very, very low IQ in that thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918070&forum_id=2#50228573) |