OpenAI Codex… Tech Unemployment Forthcoming?
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Date: November 27th, 2021 4:44 PM Author: splenetic locus preventive strike
https://arxiv.org/abs/2111.08267
https://arxiv.org/abs/2111.08171
So basically with a little prompt engineering Codex can solve college level probability and linear algebra problems. Codex won't directly or immediately cause tech unemployment. that's not the point anyway. the implication of it is that the neural network scaling hypothesis is true and that NNs, when of sufficiently large size and trained on a wide range of experiences, start meta-learning. no need to study the brain in detail to figure out what the neocortex is doing and how to replicate it in silicon - just train NNs on large datasets and the neural networks will meta-learn powerful algorithms that generalize.
timelines to AGI are increasingly short.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4973764&forum_id=2.#43518169) |
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Date: November 27th, 2021 5:28 PM Author: bearded shitlib home
Your conclusion seems to be about "meta-learning" from "large datasets", presumably leading to some sort of "foom" scenario, but the examples you've given are of narrowly-circumscribed problems for which there are large datasets available. So, I am having a hard time following how your conclusion follows from your premises. Wouldn't the more modest conclusion be that, in areas with sufficient data and amenable to production of large amounts of data and which are otherwise tractable, AI will prove useful? I don't see any hint of universal generalization.
What is the missing piece that's been filled in that answers questions like those raised by Pearl http://ftp.cs.ucla.edu/pub/stat_ser/r475.pdf
Jordan https://hdsr.mitpress.mit.edu/pub/wot7mkc1/release/9
or Hanson https://spectrum.ieee.org/economics-of-the-singularity
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4973764&forum_id=2.#43518398) |
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