"From as far back as May 11 to Election Night on Tuesday, the former reality TV star had more than a 75% chance to advance out of the primary, according to the betting platform Kalshi.

As of Saturday, Pratt’s odds had fallen dramatically — with socialist [LOL] city Councilmember Nithya Raman becoming the clear favorite among bettors.

She had 94% chance of advancing as of Saturday morning, according to Kalshi’s odds, while the betting platform Polymarket had Pratt’s odds plummeting to just 5%. [...] The new odds may seem to conflict with current voting data, as Los Angeles County slowly and painstakingly continues going through thousands of uncounted ballots."

IT'S NOT FUCKING PROBABILITY YOU FUCKING IDIOTS IT'S JUST HOW MUCH MONEY PEOPLE WITH VARIOUS GOALS HAVE PUT INTO BETS ABOUT THIS

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5871741&forum_id=2.#49919363)

but even if every single bet were a good faith prediction, it doesn't measure anything about the probability of the event itself. POLLS are orders of magnitude more related to reality since they're at least asking the people who will be making the decision, and polls are obviously bullshit too.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5871741&forum_id=2.#49919417)