Date: December 20th, 2025 12:15 AM Author: motley home
You start getting into crazy land once you bite the bullet and accept AI progress is all a consequence of compute growth. This is true for algorithmic insights too, which are driven by experiments that require compute. GPU or TPU performance per watt will likely grow something like 10x-30x by 2040. Tech profits from AI are likely to grow substantially over that time frame, supporting plausibly much larger data centers than we have now. Meanwhile algorithmic improvements continue to produce large efficiency training gains and AI coding models allow rapid evaluation of new ideas. As fast as models are improving now, it’s very likely to accelerate