The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
|
 |
 
|
Polymarket screwing over traders re Venezuela
Poast new message in this thread
Date: January 6th, 2026 3:52 PM Author: Shaky Mediation Nursing Home “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025, and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".”
“This market refers to U.S. military operations intended to establish control. President Trump’s statement that they will “run” Venezuela while referencing ongoing talks with the Venezuelan government does not alone qualify the snatch-and-extract mission to capture Maduro as an invasion.”
https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-venezuela-in-2025?tid=1767732697146
https://x.com/trader_53/status/2008545328824549664?s=46 |
 |
Date: January 6th, 2026 4:35 PM Author: lascivious rose hospital get a life you fucking dork (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567289) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2026 4:42 PM Author: Shaky Mediation Nursing Home get off this bort you closeted fag (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567303) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2026 4:44 PM Author: lascivious rose hospital you really should do this. everyone here hates you and you are a dick chopping tranny retard pedophile. the world would be better off if you'd just go away once and for all. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567306) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2026 5:03 PM Author: Shaky Mediation Nursing Home you are literally a closeted fag (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567363) |
|
Date: January 7th, 2026 9:45 AM Author: lascivious rose hospital you literally are jewishly projecting yet again. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49568632) |
Date: January 6th, 2026 3:56 PM Author: jade spectacular ceo i don't see how this can be anything other than "yes". they defined it pretty broadly. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567168) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2026 4:29 PM Author: multi-colored henna persian LMAO we "controlled" their POTUS into a fucking black bag what kind of bullshit is this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567271) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2026 4:56 PM Author: Maize Plaza It's fraud they need to pay out (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567336) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2026 5:35 PM Author: Translucent Cowardly Digit Ratio The market is about an "invasion." It's about taking and controlling territory. That hasn't happened. It still might by the end of the month. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567449) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2026 5:41 PM Author: insanely creepy swollen heaven The US controls the territory of Venezuela. The purpose of abducting its head of state was to establish control of Venezuela. The operation was successful
You are confusing the words "control" and "occupy" |
|
Date: January 6th, 2026 5:43 PM Author: Translucent Cowardly Digit Ratio Which "portion" (see the definition in the link) does the US control? The US doesn't control Venezuela via an invasion any more than the US uses its power to influence a lot of countries. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567477) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2026 5:45 PM Author: Maize Plaza Polymarket doesn't say the US has to control it with the intent to deprive Venezuela of that territory. Even a peppercorn of time is enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567484) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2026 5:47 PM Author: Translucent Cowardly Digit Ratio The market is for an invasion. The definition requires establishing control of a portion of territory.
Could you point on a map to which portion of Venezuelan territory the US invaded with the intent to control? You're right that it could be a small portion. |
|
Date: January 6th, 2026 5:49 PM Author: insanely creepy swollen heaven https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/sites/default/files/styles/oe_theme_medium_no_crop/public/2019-02/venezuela_en.png?itok=aeBbLnHe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567497) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2026 5:48 PM Author: insanely creepy swollen heaven The entire "portion" of Venezuela. The US controls the country of Venezuela, as a statement of fact, as demonstrated by the fact that it can simply remove its nominal political "head of state" at will, whenever it wants, as it just did (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567492) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2026 4:33 PM Author: Filthy Vigorous Karate seems like an easy "No". they dont and didnt intend to control any area of Venezuela, they captured its president and are pressuring the current government to do their will. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567286) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2026 4:43 PM Author: Shaky Mediation Nursing Home (Peter Thiel) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567304) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2026 4:44 PM Author: insecure deep cumskin sex offender yes its not like orange man said we run it now (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567305) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2026 4:50 PM Author: Sadistic chrome pistol state I say I run Cambodia. They appear to disagree. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567316) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2026 4:57 PM Author: Maize Plaza Who does Polymarket think is the relevant authority on this? Maduro? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567341) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2026 5:01 PM Author: Shaky Mediation Nursing Home usually they say “a consensus of credible reporting” but they removed that language since it would make it harder to screw over their traders (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567356) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2026 5:43 PM Author: Translucent Cowardly Digit Ratio (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567479) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2026 7:35 PM Author: white hairraiser death wish cr (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567713) |
|
Date: January 7th, 2026 8:45 AM Author: Bat shit crazy concupiscible quadroon whorehouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49568504) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2026 4:45 PM Author: Costumed Parlor IRL Topicality moment (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567307) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2026 4:54 PM Author: Kink-friendly thriller base (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567330) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2026 4:56 PM Author: Mischievous curious pit background story companies pay a small army of professional wordcels to exhaustively draft out the terms of selling you toilet paper, and they still leave ambiguities. why would anyone ever expect that degens gambling on geopolitical upheavals described in a blurb with no transparency or accountability would be a good idea? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567334) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2026 4:59 PM Author: Maize Plaza It's not vague. The US intended to control Maduro's estate when it arrested him, and the estate is located in Venezuela. Even if the control was only fleeting, it damn sure wasn't unintentional (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567348) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2026 5:02 PM Author: Mischievous curious pit background story (guy who no longer has $1,600) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567360) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2026 5:13 PM Author: Filthy Vigorous Karate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567396) |
|
Date: January 7th, 2026 6:19 AM Author: lilac exciting masturbator (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49568389) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2026 5:57 PM Author: impressive chad It's ambiguous on purpose so they can Jew people over after the fact. It's a feature. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567517) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2026 6:00 PM Author: insanely creepy swollen heaven (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567526) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2026 6:11 PM Author: Maize Plaza There's no ambiguity. Polymarket made a valid offer. The terms are clear. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567542) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2026 5:01 PM Author: insanely creepy swollen heaven Obvious yes
But this is why you don't bet on stuff like this tbh. I wouldn't even put a substantial sum of money on an election on these platforms. You always run the risk of some Jewish bullshit like this |
|
Date: January 6th, 2026 5:33 PM Author: Translucent Cowardly Digit Ratio This is a crystal clear "No." What's the counterargument that isn't just based on feelings?
The market is "Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?" And they define "invasion" as "a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela."
Dropping some special ops in for a limited time to extract the president is far from an invasion--i.e., an "offensive intended to establish control over" over territory. If there were boots on the ground to take and hold territory, it would be another thing. But there are not and have not been.
|
|
Date: January 6th, 2026 5:35 PM Author: Filthy Vigorous Karate cr, not a close call imo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567451) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2026 5:37 PM Author: Shaky Mediation Nursing Home Trump said the US would now run Venezuela. It’s so clear that they even had to address it in their statement screwing people over. There must’ve been a huge whale or polymarket insider on the other side of that trade (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567465) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2026 5:45 PM Author: Translucent Cowardly Digit Ratio The market isn't what wild things Trump says. (He also said we're going to "lock Her up." Where are we on that?)
The market is for an invasion controlling Venezuelan territory. That hasn't happened. |
|
Date: January 6th, 2026 5:48 PM Author: insanely creepy swollen heaven Narrator: "In fact, it did just happen two days ago." (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567493) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2026 5:49 PM Author: Maize Plaza This is shitlib semantics. The actual verbiage says "commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela." Trump doesn't have to actually run anything, he only has to commence a military offensive with that intent. Having actual control is sufficient but not NECESSARY to prove intent. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567498) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2026 5:54 PM Author: jade spectacular ceo this. it was a military offensive intended to establish control over caracas generally and at the very least maduro's residence for however long it was necessary in order to capture him.
the issue here is "control" and the time period it takes to constitute it. polymarket thought they were describing something more permanent and substantial, but they didn't spell that out and i think it's hard to argue that landing a bunch of helicopters into maduro's front yard, killing his security guards, and forcibly removing him wasn't taking "control" of his house which is a "portion" of venezuela. "intent" is there the minute you give the order. |
|
Date: January 6th, 2026 5:57 PM Author: Maize Plaza Under US law we damn sure exercised control over several acres of land in Venezuela for a period of some several minutes, and not by accident (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567514) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2026 5:47 PM Author: Maize Plaza So Polymarket can call Trump a liar but Hampton Inn can't make DHS pay full price for hotel rooms? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567489) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2026 6:10 PM Author: chartreuse autistic turdskin location are degenerate gamblers actually whining that their gambling platform is being legalistic and dishonest? LOL. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567539) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2026 7:20 PM Author: Shaky Mediation Nursing Home the thing is there are people on both sides of the trade so it doesn’t really make sense for polymarket to screw over their users. they’re just a bookie. unless a polymarket insider or whale with connections was on the other side of the trade and pulled some strings. either way what they’re doing is dishonest. at a minimum they should not have titled the market “invade” if sending the military into foreign sovereign territory and arresting its president doesn’t count. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567682) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2026 7:31 PM Author: Cordovan Vivacious Hunting Ground Selfie If there was a breaking news report that “the us is invading Venezuela” no one would be like “but that already happened”.
The common sense version says this wasn’t an invasion and nothing in their terms is enough to override that. |
|
Date: January 6th, 2026 8:15 PM Author: French snowy hall His house was invaded (briefly) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567813) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2026 8:11 PM Author: French snowy hall (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567795) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2026 8:17 PM Author: Rebellious school I'm 100% on Polymarket's side here.
|
|
Date: January 7th, 2026 5:48 AM Author: French snowy hall I was, too, until uh oh convinced me otherwise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49568381) |
|
Date: January 7th, 2026 7:59 AM Author: Shaky Mediation Nursing Home Kalishi screwing over bettors on 49ers game
https://x.com/dustingouker/status/2008748429024133125?s=46 |
|
Date: January 7th, 2026 8:16 AM Author: Filthy Vigorous Karate now this is just a straight up scam (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49568452) |
|
Date: January 7th, 2026 8:18 AM Author: Maize Plaza Is Polymarket still fucking over its users? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49568453) |
|
Date: January 7th, 2026 10:16 AM Author: Kink-friendly thriller base Just made 60,000 dollars (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49568707) |
|
Date: January 7th, 2026 10:29 AM Author: French snowy hall ? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49568727) |
|
Date: January 7th, 2026 10:30 AM Author: jade spectacular ceo i can't believe any lawyer would agree with "no" here. the terms are so broad even a child could make a reasonable argument for "yes". (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49568730) |
|
Date: January 10th, 2026 10:01 PM Author: French snowy hall (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49579920) |