\
  The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
BackRefresh Options Favorite

Polymarket screwing over traders re Venezuela

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Un...
hilarious stirring old irish cottage
  01/06/26
get a life you fucking dork
galvanic medicated pit
  01/06/26
get off this bort you closeted fag
hilarious stirring old irish cottage
  01/06/26
you really should do this. everyone here hates you and you ...
galvanic medicated pit
  01/06/26
you are literally a closeted fag
hilarious stirring old irish cottage
  01/06/26
you literally are jewishly projecting yet again.
galvanic medicated pit
  01/07/26
i don't see how this can be anything other than "yes&qu...
lime electric crackhouse elastic band
  01/06/26
LMAO we "controlled" their POTUS into a fucking bl...
Flatulent carnelian hell
  01/06/26
It's fraud they need to pay out
maize sandwich
  01/06/26
The market is about an "invasion." It's about taki...
Supple vermilion therapy
  01/06/26
The US controls the territory of Venezuela. The purpose of a...
Odious disgusting pocket flask prole
  01/06/26
Which "portion" (see the definition in the link) d...
Supple vermilion therapy
  01/06/26
Polymarket doesn't say the US has to control it with the int...
maize sandwich
  01/06/26
The market is for an invasion. The definition requires estab...
Supple vermilion therapy
  01/06/26
https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/sites...
Odious disgusting pocket flask prole
  01/06/26
The entire "portion" of Venezuela. The US controls...
Odious disgusting pocket flask prole
  01/06/26
seems like an easy "No". they dont and didnt inten...
wild turquoise center
  01/06/26
(Peter Thiel)
hilarious stirring old irish cottage
  01/06/26
yes its not like orange man said we run it now
chestnut market
  01/06/26
I say I run Cambodia. They appear to disagree.
glittery people who are hurt police squad
  01/06/26
Who does Polymarket think is the relevant authority on this?...
maize sandwich
  01/06/26
usually they say “a consensus of credible reporting&rd...
hilarious stirring old irish cottage
  01/06/26
...
Supple vermilion therapy
  01/06/26
cr
white internal respiration
  01/06/26
...
Pungent crystalline international law enforcement agency casino
  01/07/26
IRL Topicality moment
arousing gay wizard public bath
  01/06/26
...
Aromatic Opaque Theater Sweet Tailpipe
  01/06/26
companies pay a small army of professional wordcels to exhau...
Anal native sound barrier
  01/06/26
It's not vague. The US intended to control Maduro's estate w...
maize sandwich
  01/06/26
(guy who no longer has $1,600)
Anal native sound barrier
  01/06/26
...
wild turquoise center
  01/06/26
...
180 Self-centered Liquid Oxygen Garrison
  01/07/26
It's ambiguous on purpose so they can Jew people over after ...
Black Aphrodisiac Step-uncle's House Rigor
  01/06/26
...
Odious disgusting pocket flask prole
  01/06/26
There's no ambiguity. Polymarket made a valid offer. The ter...
maize sandwich
  01/06/26
Obvious yes But this is why you don't bet on stuff like t...
Odious disgusting pocket flask prole
  01/06/26
This is a crystal clear "No." What's the counterar...
Supple vermilion therapy
  01/06/26
cr, not a close call imo
wild turquoise center
  01/06/26
Trump said the US would now run Venezuela. It’s so cle...
hilarious stirring old irish cottage
  01/06/26
The market isn't what wild things Trump says. (He also said ...
Supple vermilion therapy
  01/06/26
Narrator: "In fact, it did just happen two days ago.&qu...
Odious disgusting pocket flask prole
  01/06/26
This is shitlib semantics. The actual verbiage says "co...
maize sandwich
  01/06/26
this. it was a military offensive intended to establish cont...
lime electric crackhouse elastic band
  01/06/26
Under US law we damn sure exercised control over several acr...
maize sandwich
  01/06/26
So Polymarket can call Trump a liar but Hampton Inn can't ma...
maize sandwich
  01/06/26
are degenerate gamblers actually whining that their gambling...
Magical juggernaut
  01/06/26
the thing is there are people on both sides of the trade so ...
hilarious stirring old irish cottage
  01/06/26
If there was a breaking news report that “the us is in...
Cobalt macaca depressive
  01/06/26
His house was invaded (briefly)
umber exciting ladyboy
  01/06/26
...
umber exciting ladyboy
  01/06/26
I'm 100% on Polymarket's side here.
Drab water buffalo
  01/06/26
I was, too, until uh oh convinced me otherwise
umber exciting ladyboy
  01/07/26
Kalishi screwing over bettors on 49ers game https://x.com...
hilarious stirring old irish cottage
  01/07/26
now this is just a straight up scam
wild turquoise center
  01/07/26
Is Polymarket still fucking over its users?
maize sandwich
  01/07/26
Just made 60,000 dollars
Aromatic Opaque Theater Sweet Tailpipe
  01/07/26
?
umber exciting ladyboy
  01/07/26
i can't believe any lawyer would agree with "no" h...
lime electric crackhouse elastic band
  01/07/26
...
umber exciting ladyboy
  01/10/26


Poast new message in this thread



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 3:52 PM
Author: hilarious stirring old irish cottage

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025, and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".”

“This market refers to U.S. military operations intended to establish control. President Trump’s statement that they will “run” Venezuela while referencing ongoing talks with the Venezuelan government does not alone qualify the snatch-and-extract mission to capture Maduro as an invasion.”

https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-venezuela-in-2025?tid=1767732697146

https://x.com/trader_53/status/2008545328824549664?s=46

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567156)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:35 PM
Author: galvanic medicated pit

get a life you fucking dork

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567289)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:42 PM
Author: hilarious stirring old irish cottage

get off this bort you closeted fag

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567303)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:44 PM
Author: galvanic medicated pit

you really should do this. everyone here hates you and you are a dick chopping tranny retard pedophile. the world would be better off if you'd just go away once and for all.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567306)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:03 PM
Author: hilarious stirring old irish cottage

you are literally a closeted fag

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567363)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 9:45 AM
Author: galvanic medicated pit

you literally are jewishly projecting yet again.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49568632)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 3:56 PM
Author: lime electric crackhouse elastic band

i don't see how this can be anything other than "yes". they defined it pretty broadly.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567168)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:29 PM
Author: Flatulent carnelian hell

LMAO we "controlled" their POTUS into a fucking black bag what kind of bullshit is this

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567271)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:56 PM
Author: maize sandwich

It's fraud they need to pay out

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567336)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:35 PM
Author: Supple vermilion therapy

The market is about an "invasion." It's about taking and controlling territory. That hasn't happened. It still might by the end of the month.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567449)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:41 PM
Author: Odious disgusting pocket flask prole

The US controls the territory of Venezuela. The purpose of abducting its head of state was to establish control of Venezuela. The operation was successful

You are confusing the words "control" and "occupy"

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567472)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:43 PM
Author: Supple vermilion therapy

Which "portion" (see the definition in the link) does the US control? The US doesn't control Venezuela via an invasion any more than the US uses its power to influence a lot of countries.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567477)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:45 PM
Author: maize sandwich

Polymarket doesn't say the US has to control it with the intent to deprive Venezuela of that territory. Even a peppercorn of time is enough.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567484)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:47 PM
Author: Supple vermilion therapy

The market is for an invasion. The definition requires establishing control of a portion of territory.

Could you point on a map to which portion of Venezuelan territory the US invaded with the intent to control? You're right that it could be a small portion.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567491)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:49 PM
Author: Odious disgusting pocket flask prole

https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/sites/default/files/styles/oe_theme_medium_no_crop/public/2019-02/venezuela_en.png?itok=aeBbLnHe

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567497)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:48 PM
Author: Odious disgusting pocket flask prole

The entire "portion" of Venezuela. The US controls the country of Venezuela, as a statement of fact, as demonstrated by the fact that it can simply remove its nominal political "head of state" at will, whenever it wants, as it just did

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567492)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:33 PM
Author: wild turquoise center

seems like an easy "No". they dont and didnt intend to control any area of Venezuela, they captured its president and are pressuring the current government to do their will.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567286)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:43 PM
Author: hilarious stirring old irish cottage

(Peter Thiel)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567304)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:44 PM
Author: chestnut market

yes its not like orange man said we run it now

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567305)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:50 PM
Author: glittery people who are hurt police squad

I say I run Cambodia. They appear to disagree.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567316)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:57 PM
Author: maize sandwich

Who does Polymarket think is the relevant authority on this? Maduro?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567341)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:01 PM
Author: hilarious stirring old irish cottage

usually they say “a consensus of credible reporting” but they removed that language since it would make it harder to screw over their traders

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567356)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:43 PM
Author: Supple vermilion therapy



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567479)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 7:35 PM
Author: white internal respiration

cr

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567713)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 8:45 AM
Author: Pungent crystalline international law enforcement agency casino



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49568504)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:45 PM
Author: arousing gay wizard public bath

IRL Topicality moment

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567307)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:54 PM
Author: Aromatic Opaque Theater Sweet Tailpipe



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567330)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:56 PM
Author: Anal native sound barrier

companies pay a small army of professional wordcels to exhaustively draft out the terms of selling you toilet paper, and they still leave ambiguities. why would anyone ever expect that degens gambling on geopolitical upheavals described in a blurb with no transparency or accountability would be a good idea?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567334)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:59 PM
Author: maize sandwich

It's not vague. The US intended to control Maduro's estate when it arrested him, and the estate is located in Venezuela. Even if the control was only fleeting, it damn sure wasn't unintentional

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567348)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:02 PM
Author: Anal native sound barrier

(guy who no longer has $1,600)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567360)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:13 PM
Author: wild turquoise center



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567396)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 6:19 AM
Author: 180 Self-centered Liquid Oxygen Garrison



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49568389)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:57 PM
Author: Black Aphrodisiac Step-uncle's House Rigor

It's ambiguous on purpose so they can Jew people over after the fact. It's a feature.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567517)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 6:00 PM
Author: Odious disgusting pocket flask prole



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567526)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 6:11 PM
Author: maize sandwich

There's no ambiguity. Polymarket made a valid offer. The terms are clear.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567542)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:01 PM
Author: Odious disgusting pocket flask prole

Obvious yes

But this is why you don't bet on stuff like this tbh. I wouldn't even put a substantial sum of money on an election on these platforms. You always run the risk of some Jewish bullshit like this

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567354)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:33 PM
Author: Supple vermilion therapy

This is a crystal clear "No." What's the counterargument that isn't just based on feelings?

The market is "Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?" And they define "invasion" as "a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela."

Dropping some special ops in for a limited time to extract the president is far from an invasion--i.e., an "offensive intended to establish control over" over territory. If there were boots on the ground to take and hold territory, it would be another thing. But there are not and have not been.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567445)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:35 PM
Author: wild turquoise center

cr, not a close call imo

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567451)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:37 PM
Author: hilarious stirring old irish cottage

Trump said the US would now run Venezuela. It’s so clear that they even had to address it in their statement screwing people over. There must’ve been a huge whale or polymarket insider on the other side of that trade

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567465)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:45 PM
Author: Supple vermilion therapy

The market isn't what wild things Trump says. (He also said we're going to "lock Her up." Where are we on that?)

The market is for an invasion controlling Venezuelan territory. That hasn't happened.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567485)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:48 PM
Author: Odious disgusting pocket flask prole

Narrator: "In fact, it did just happen two days ago."

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567493)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:49 PM
Author: maize sandwich

This is shitlib semantics. The actual verbiage says "commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela." Trump doesn't have to actually run anything, he only has to commence a military offensive with that intent. Having actual control is sufficient but not NECESSARY to prove intent.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567498)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:54 PM
Author: lime electric crackhouse elastic band

this. it was a military offensive intended to establish control over caracas generally and at the very least maduro's residence for however long it was necessary in order to capture him.

the issue here is "control" and the time period it takes to constitute it. polymarket thought they were describing something more permanent and substantial, but they didn't spell that out and i think it's hard to argue that landing a bunch of helicopters into maduro's front yard, killing his security guards, and forcibly removing him wasn't taking "control" of his house which is a "portion" of venezuela. "intent" is there the minute you give the order.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567509)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:57 PM
Author: maize sandwich

Under US law we damn sure exercised control over several acres of land in Venezuela for a period of some several minutes, and not by accident

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567514)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:47 PM
Author: maize sandwich

So Polymarket can call Trump a liar but Hampton Inn can't make DHS pay full price for hotel rooms?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567489)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 6:10 PM
Author: Magical juggernaut

are degenerate gamblers actually whining that their gambling platform is being legalistic and dishonest? LOL.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567539)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 7:20 PM
Author: hilarious stirring old irish cottage

the thing is there are people on both sides of the trade so it doesn’t really make sense for polymarket to screw over their users. they’re just a bookie. unless a polymarket insider or whale with connections was on the other side of the trade and pulled some strings. either way what they’re doing is dishonest. at a minimum they should not have titled the market “invade” if sending the military into foreign sovereign territory and arresting its president doesn’t count.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567682)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 7:31 PM
Author: Cobalt macaca depressive

If there was a breaking news report that “the us is invading Venezuela” no one would be like “but that already happened”.

The common sense version says this wasn’t an invasion and nothing in their terms is enough to override that.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567704)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 8:15 PM
Author: umber exciting ladyboy

His house was invaded (briefly)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567813)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 8:11 PM
Author: umber exciting ladyboy



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567795)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 8:17 PM
Author: Drab water buffalo

I'm 100% on Polymarket's side here.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567818)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 5:48 AM
Author: umber exciting ladyboy

I was, too, until uh oh convinced me otherwise

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49568381)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 7:59 AM
Author: hilarious stirring old irish cottage

Kalishi screwing over bettors on 49ers game

https://x.com/dustingouker/status/2008748429024133125?s=46

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49568440)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 8:16 AM
Author: wild turquoise center

now this is just a straight up scam

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49568452)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 8:18 AM
Author: maize sandwich

Is Polymarket still fucking over its users?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49568453)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 10:16 AM
Author: Aromatic Opaque Theater Sweet Tailpipe

Just made 60,000 dollars

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49568707)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 10:29 AM
Author: umber exciting ladyboy

?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49568727)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 10:30 AM
Author: lime electric crackhouse elastic band

i can't believe any lawyer would agree with "no" here. the terms are so broad even a child could make a reasonable argument for "yes".

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49568730)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 10th, 2026 10:01 PM
Author: umber exciting ladyboy



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49579920)