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Polymarket screwing over traders re Venezuela

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Un...
Flushed House Boiling Water
  01/06/26
get a life you fucking dork
Racy plum hominid
  01/06/26
get off this bort you closeted fag
Flushed House Boiling Water
  01/06/26
you really should do this. everyone here hates you and you ...
Racy plum hominid
  01/06/26
you are literally a closeted fag
Flushed House Boiling Water
  01/06/26
you literally are jewishly projecting yet again.
Racy plum hominid
  01/07/26
i don't see how this can be anything other than "yes&qu...
cocky hospital
  01/06/26
LMAO we "controlled" their POTUS into a fucking bl...
boyish new version brunch
  01/06/26
It's fraud they need to pay out
cerebral institution private investor
  01/06/26
The market is about an "invasion." It's about taki...
excitant lilac kitchen
  01/06/26
The US controls the territory of Venezuela. The purpose of a...
Jade Coiffed Set Weed Whacker
  01/06/26
Which "portion" (see the definition in the link) d...
excitant lilac kitchen
  01/06/26
Polymarket doesn't say the US has to control it with the int...
cerebral institution private investor
  01/06/26
The market is for an invasion. The definition requires estab...
excitant lilac kitchen
  01/06/26
https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/sites...
Jade Coiffed Set Weed Whacker
  01/06/26
The entire "portion" of Venezuela. The US controls...
Jade Coiffed Set Weed Whacker
  01/06/26
seems like an easy "No". they dont and didnt inten...
180 elastic band
  01/06/26
(Peter Thiel)
Flushed House Boiling Water
  01/06/26
yes its not like orange man said we run it now
Metal crawly university
  01/06/26
I say I run Cambodia. They appear to disagree.
Bateful Affirmative Action
  01/06/26
Who does Polymarket think is the relevant authority on this?...
cerebral institution private investor
  01/06/26
usually they say “a consensus of credible reporting&rd...
Flushed House Boiling Water
  01/06/26
...
excitant lilac kitchen
  01/06/26
cr
magical irradiated jewess goal in life
  01/06/26
...
Bisexual mustard office boistinker
  01/07/26
IRL Topicality moment
Brilliant Pistol
  01/06/26
...
Sienna stead
  01/06/26
companies pay a small army of professional wordcels to exhau...
bat shit crazy trip piazza
  01/06/26
It's not vague. The US intended to control Maduro's estate w...
cerebral institution private investor
  01/06/26
(guy who no longer has $1,600)
bat shit crazy trip piazza
  01/06/26
...
180 elastic band
  01/06/26
...
Diverse legal warrant chad
  01/07/26
It's ambiguous on purpose so they can Jew people over after ...
primrose resort old irish cottage
  01/06/26
...
Jade Coiffed Set Weed Whacker
  01/06/26
There's no ambiguity. Polymarket made a valid offer. The ter...
cerebral institution private investor
  01/06/26
Obvious yes But this is why you don't bet on stuff like t...
Jade Coiffed Set Weed Whacker
  01/06/26
This is a crystal clear "No." What's the counterar...
excitant lilac kitchen
  01/06/26
cr, not a close call imo
180 elastic band
  01/06/26
Trump said the US would now run Venezuela. It’s so cle...
Flushed House Boiling Water
  01/06/26
The market isn't what wild things Trump says. (He also said ...
excitant lilac kitchen
  01/06/26
Narrator: "In fact, it did just happen two days ago.&qu...
Jade Coiffed Set Weed Whacker
  01/06/26
This is shitlib semantics. The actual verbiage says "co...
cerebral institution private investor
  01/06/26
this. it was a military offensive intended to establish cont...
cocky hospital
  01/06/26
Under US law we damn sure exercised control over several acr...
cerebral institution private investor
  01/06/26
So Polymarket can call Trump a liar but Hampton Inn can't ma...
cerebral institution private investor
  01/06/26
are degenerate gamblers actually whining that their gambling...
naked crackhouse milk
  01/06/26
the thing is there are people on both sides of the trade so ...
Flushed House Boiling Water
  01/06/26
If there was a breaking news report that “the us is in...
Onyx police squad
  01/06/26
His house was invaded (briefly)
fuchsia talented library clown
  01/06/26
...
fuchsia talented library clown
  01/06/26
I'm 100% on Polymarket's side here.
big station dingle berry
  01/06/26
I was, too, until uh oh convinced me otherwise
fuchsia talented library clown
  01/07/26
Kalishi screwing over bettors on 49ers game https://x.com...
Flushed House Boiling Water
  01/07/26
now this is just a straight up scam
180 elastic band
  01/07/26
Is Polymarket still fucking over its users?
cerebral institution private investor
  01/07/26
Just made 60,000 dollars
Sienna stead
  01/07/26
?
fuchsia talented library clown
  01/07/26
i can't believe any lawyer would agree with "no" h...
cocky hospital
  01/07/26
...
fuchsia talented library clown
  01/10/26


Poast new message in this thread



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 3:52 PM
Author: Flushed House Boiling Water

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025, and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".”

“This market refers to U.S. military operations intended to establish control. President Trump’s statement that they will “run” Venezuela while referencing ongoing talks with the Venezuelan government does not alone qualify the snatch-and-extract mission to capture Maduro as an invasion.”

https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-venezuela-in-2025?tid=1767732697146

https://x.com/trader_53/status/2008545328824549664?s=46

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567156)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:35 PM
Author: Racy plum hominid

get a life you fucking dork

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567289)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:42 PM
Author: Flushed House Boiling Water

get off this bort you closeted fag

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567303)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:44 PM
Author: Racy plum hominid

you really should do this. everyone here hates you and you are a dick chopping tranny retard pedophile. the world would be better off if you'd just go away once and for all.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567306)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:03 PM
Author: Flushed House Boiling Water

you are literally a closeted fag

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567363)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 9:45 AM
Author: Racy plum hominid

you literally are jewishly projecting yet again.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49568632)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 3:56 PM
Author: cocky hospital

i don't see how this can be anything other than "yes". they defined it pretty broadly.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567168)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:29 PM
Author: boyish new version brunch

LMAO we "controlled" their POTUS into a fucking black bag what kind of bullshit is this

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567271)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:56 PM
Author: cerebral institution private investor

It's fraud they need to pay out

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567336)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:35 PM
Author: excitant lilac kitchen

The market is about an "invasion." It's about taking and controlling territory. That hasn't happened. It still might by the end of the month.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567449)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:41 PM
Author: Jade Coiffed Set Weed Whacker

The US controls the territory of Venezuela. The purpose of abducting its head of state was to establish control of Venezuela. The operation was successful

You are confusing the words "control" and "occupy"

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567472)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:43 PM
Author: excitant lilac kitchen

Which "portion" (see the definition in the link) does the US control? The US doesn't control Venezuela via an invasion any more than the US uses its power to influence a lot of countries.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567477)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:45 PM
Author: cerebral institution private investor

Polymarket doesn't say the US has to control it with the intent to deprive Venezuela of that territory. Even a peppercorn of time is enough.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567484)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:47 PM
Author: excitant lilac kitchen

The market is for an invasion. The definition requires establishing control of a portion of territory.

Could you point on a map to which portion of Venezuelan territory the US invaded with the intent to control? You're right that it could be a small portion.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567491)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:49 PM
Author: Jade Coiffed Set Weed Whacker

https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/sites/default/files/styles/oe_theme_medium_no_crop/public/2019-02/venezuela_en.png?itok=aeBbLnHe

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567497)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:48 PM
Author: Jade Coiffed Set Weed Whacker

The entire "portion" of Venezuela. The US controls the country of Venezuela, as a statement of fact, as demonstrated by the fact that it can simply remove its nominal political "head of state" at will, whenever it wants, as it just did

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567492)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:33 PM
Author: 180 elastic band

seems like an easy "No". they dont and didnt intend to control any area of Venezuela, they captured its president and are pressuring the current government to do their will.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567286)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:43 PM
Author: Flushed House Boiling Water

(Peter Thiel)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567304)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:44 PM
Author: Metal crawly university

yes its not like orange man said we run it now

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567305)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:50 PM
Author: Bateful Affirmative Action

I say I run Cambodia. They appear to disagree.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567316)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:57 PM
Author: cerebral institution private investor

Who does Polymarket think is the relevant authority on this? Maduro?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567341)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:01 PM
Author: Flushed House Boiling Water

usually they say “a consensus of credible reporting” but they removed that language since it would make it harder to screw over their traders

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567356)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:43 PM
Author: excitant lilac kitchen



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567479)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 7:35 PM
Author: magical irradiated jewess goal in life

cr

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567713)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 8:45 AM
Author: Bisexual mustard office boistinker



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49568504)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:45 PM
Author: Brilliant Pistol

IRL Topicality moment

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567307)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:54 PM
Author: Sienna stead



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567330)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:56 PM
Author: bat shit crazy trip piazza

companies pay a small army of professional wordcels to exhaustively draft out the terms of selling you toilet paper, and they still leave ambiguities. why would anyone ever expect that degens gambling on geopolitical upheavals described in a blurb with no transparency or accountability would be a good idea?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567334)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:59 PM
Author: cerebral institution private investor

It's not vague. The US intended to control Maduro's estate when it arrested him, and the estate is located in Venezuela. Even if the control was only fleeting, it damn sure wasn't unintentional

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567348)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:02 PM
Author: bat shit crazy trip piazza

(guy who no longer has $1,600)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567360)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:13 PM
Author: 180 elastic band



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567396)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 6:19 AM
Author: Diverse legal warrant chad



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49568389)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:57 PM
Author: primrose resort old irish cottage

It's ambiguous on purpose so they can Jew people over after the fact. It's a feature.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567517)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 6:00 PM
Author: Jade Coiffed Set Weed Whacker



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567526)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 6:11 PM
Author: cerebral institution private investor

There's no ambiguity. Polymarket made a valid offer. The terms are clear.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567542)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:01 PM
Author: Jade Coiffed Set Weed Whacker

Obvious yes

But this is why you don't bet on stuff like this tbh. I wouldn't even put a substantial sum of money on an election on these platforms. You always run the risk of some Jewish bullshit like this

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567354)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:33 PM
Author: excitant lilac kitchen

This is a crystal clear "No." What's the counterargument that isn't just based on feelings?

The market is "Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?" And they define "invasion" as "a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela."

Dropping some special ops in for a limited time to extract the president is far from an invasion--i.e., an "offensive intended to establish control over" over territory. If there were boots on the ground to take and hold territory, it would be another thing. But there are not and have not been.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567445)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:35 PM
Author: 180 elastic band

cr, not a close call imo

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567451)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:37 PM
Author: Flushed House Boiling Water

Trump said the US would now run Venezuela. It’s so clear that they even had to address it in their statement screwing people over. There must’ve been a huge whale or polymarket insider on the other side of that trade

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567465)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:45 PM
Author: excitant lilac kitchen

The market isn't what wild things Trump says. (He also said we're going to "lock Her up." Where are we on that?)

The market is for an invasion controlling Venezuelan territory. That hasn't happened.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567485)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:48 PM
Author: Jade Coiffed Set Weed Whacker

Narrator: "In fact, it did just happen two days ago."

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567493)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:49 PM
Author: cerebral institution private investor

This is shitlib semantics. The actual verbiage says "commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela." Trump doesn't have to actually run anything, he only has to commence a military offensive with that intent. Having actual control is sufficient but not NECESSARY to prove intent.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567498)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:54 PM
Author: cocky hospital

this. it was a military offensive intended to establish control over caracas generally and at the very least maduro's residence for however long it was necessary in order to capture him.

the issue here is "control" and the time period it takes to constitute it. polymarket thought they were describing something more permanent and substantial, but they didn't spell that out and i think it's hard to argue that landing a bunch of helicopters into maduro's front yard, killing his security guards, and forcibly removing him wasn't taking "control" of his house which is a "portion" of venezuela. "intent" is there the minute you give the order.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567509)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:57 PM
Author: cerebral institution private investor

Under US law we damn sure exercised control over several acres of land in Venezuela for a period of some several minutes, and not by accident

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567514)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:47 PM
Author: cerebral institution private investor

So Polymarket can call Trump a liar but Hampton Inn can't make DHS pay full price for hotel rooms?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567489)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 6:10 PM
Author: naked crackhouse milk

are degenerate gamblers actually whining that their gambling platform is being legalistic and dishonest? LOL.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567539)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 7:20 PM
Author: Flushed House Boiling Water

the thing is there are people on both sides of the trade so it doesn’t really make sense for polymarket to screw over their users. they’re just a bookie. unless a polymarket insider or whale with connections was on the other side of the trade and pulled some strings. either way what they’re doing is dishonest. at a minimum they should not have titled the market “invade” if sending the military into foreign sovereign territory and arresting its president doesn’t count.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567682)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 7:31 PM
Author: Onyx police squad

If there was a breaking news report that “the us is invading Venezuela” no one would be like “but that already happened”.

The common sense version says this wasn’t an invasion and nothing in their terms is enough to override that.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567704)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 8:15 PM
Author: fuchsia talented library clown

His house was invaded (briefly)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567813)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 8:11 PM
Author: fuchsia talented library clown



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567795)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 8:17 PM
Author: big station dingle berry

I'm 100% on Polymarket's side here.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49567818)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 5:48 AM
Author: fuchsia talented library clown

I was, too, until uh oh convinced me otherwise

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49568381)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 7:59 AM
Author: Flushed House Boiling Water

Kalishi screwing over bettors on 49ers game

https://x.com/dustingouker/status/2008748429024133125?s=46

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49568440)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 8:16 AM
Author: 180 elastic band

now this is just a straight up scam

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49568452)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 8:18 AM
Author: cerebral institution private investor

Is Polymarket still fucking over its users?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49568453)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 10:16 AM
Author: Sienna stead

Just made 60,000 dollars

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49568707)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 10:29 AM
Author: fuchsia talented library clown

?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49568727)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 10:30 AM
Author: cocky hospital

i can't believe any lawyer would agree with "no" here. the terms are so broad even a child could make a reasonable argument for "yes".

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49568730)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 10th, 2026 10:01 PM
Author: fuchsia talented library clown



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Elisa#49579920)