The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
|
 |
 
|
Isn't Kamala already cooked in Nevada?
Poast new message in this thread
Date: November 3rd, 2024 8:28 PM Author: ,,,,,,,,,,,.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.../.,, https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024
Why the fuck is the new york times telling me about nevada polling when ~80% of the entire vote is already in?
I'm very tempted to bet a fuckton on trump in nevada on polymarket |
Date: November 3rd, 2024 8:31 PM Author: (Jewish) Dominion Voting Systems Nevada is a smokescreen for what they’re gonna do in NC and AZ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624146&forum_id=2Elisa#48277751) |
|
Date: November 3rd, 2024 10:06 PM Author: ....,,....,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.......,.,.,.,.,..,. Not necessarily. When Dems took full control over state government they:
(1) began mailing ballots to all registered voters, so there are at least 200k ballots in Clark County that could be "returned" by being mailed or dropped off or given to the local harvester through the end of Tuesday, in addition to normal election-day voting.
(2) enacted AVR, so anyone who doesn't intentionally register as a Democrat or Republican gets automatically registered as unaffiliated whenever they renew their driver's license. As a result, the portion of unaffiliated voters has skyrocketed, so even a small shift in their voting will significantly impacted the election results.
The GOP is favored but it's possible there's a shitload of mail remaining and unaffiliateds swing hard left. |
 |
Date: November 3rd, 2024 10:10 PM Author: Colonial Settler There will be as many as needed. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624146&forum_id=2Elisa#48278128) |
|
Date: November 4th, 2024 11:06 AM Author: ,,,,,,,,,,,.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.../.,, She will need preposterous margins with independent voters to cover the 50k deficit.
Also it seems unlikely that democrats somehow just decided to vote on election day this cycle. What if a good chunk of the d vote is already in?
Kamala and tampon Tim don't strike me as having lots of crossover appeal either. |
|
Date: November 4th, 2024 11:22 AM Author: LathamTouchedMe Deficit could potentially be cut in half since mail is still coming in (dems dominate mail) and there’s no early in person voting that favors GOP. Mail processing is always a few days behind and you can mail it in as late as Election Day. It will come down to the unaffiliated. If mail keeps coming and she gets Biden-like or better margins with unaffiliated she wins. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624146&forum_id=2Elisa#48280221) |
|
Date: November 4th, 2024 11:36 AM Author: ,,,,,,,,,,,.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.../.,, My back of the envelope math says Kamala needs to win 63% of the remaining votes from clark county just to hit biden's % from 2020 (53%)
Good luck with that shit. Cooked cooked cooked |
|
Date: November 4th, 2024 12:04 PM Author: LathamTouchedMe Here’s the run through of the final numbers. There’s still 200k mail left and it’s unlikely GOP will have same e-day advantage as 2020 since they mostly maxed out early voting. It’s really a question of how the unaffiliateds break. Too early to read the tea leaves.
https://x.com/johnrsamuelsen/status/1853239406519357870?s=46 |
|
Date: November 4th, 2024 1:13 PM Author: ....,,....,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.......,.,.,.,.,..,. This guy is an out-of-state hack who got 2022 wrong, unlike Ralston. Ralston says remaining mail is likely between 80k-140k. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624146&forum_id=2Elisa#48280780) |
|
Date: November 3rd, 2024 10:06 PM Author: """'""""'' no (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624146&forum_id=2Elisa#48278116) |
|
Date: November 3rd, 2024 10:16 PM She will win nevada easily and likely arizona too (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624146&forum_id=2Elisa#48278160) |
|
Date: November 3rd, 2024 10:17 PM Author: (Jewish) Dominion Voting Systems they will dick tease NV while they assfuck NC (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624146&forum_id=2Elisa#48278162) |
|
Date: November 4th, 2024 11:03 AM Author: ,,,,,,,,,,,.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.../.,, (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624146&forum_id=2Elisa#48280135) |
|
Date: November 4th, 2024 11:04 AM Author: Donald MASE Trump If she wins Nevada, it will be extremely close. Trump could win it in a blowout. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624146&forum_id=2Elisa#48280138) |
|
Date: November 4th, 2024 11:07 AM Author: ,,,,,,,,,,,.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.../.,, What if nevada is a harbinger for other states? This could be an electoral college massacre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624146&forum_id=2Elisa#48280156) |
|
Date: November 4th, 2024 11:10 AM Author: ....,,....,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.......,.,.,.,.,..,. There are signs of Dem declines across the country. But with 2020 being the pandemic it's hard to know how much of the Dem decline is people shifting back to old voting methods vs. not showing up. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624146&forum_id=2Elisa#48280173) |
|
Date: November 4th, 2024 11:14 AM Author: ,,,,,,,,,,,.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.../.,, I thought dems voting early was the trend even before covid though? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624146&forum_id=2Elisa#48280183) |
|
Date: November 4th, 2024 11:15 AM Author: Donald MASE Trump It was. Which is why Dems voting en masse on election day, while I guess possible, is mostly a cope. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624146&forum_id=2Elisa#48280189) |
|
Date: November 4th, 2024 11:19 AM Author: ....,,....,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.......,.,.,.,.,..,. Yes but the Dems switched from in-person voting to mail in 2020 which makes everything uncertain. Nevada in-person EV is over; open question how many Dems will drop off mail ballots, vote on ED, and not show up at all.
If you look at states like WA that have been all mail-in since prepandemic you see sharp Dem declines that can't be explained by the pandemic, so maybe there is something drastic happening. |
|
Date: November 4th, 2024 11:25 AM Author: Donald MASE Trump It's simple. Dems like to vote early, either in person or by mail. Cons like to vote on election day. Dems have seen massive declines in early in person and mail ins while Reps have maintained much of their turnout from 2020 in both.
Does someone have any theory as to why Dems would suddenly become the election day party? Because I suggest there isn't any. |
|
Date: November 4th, 2024 11:31 AM Author: harvested ballots There is a “mouth watering” harvest heading NV way. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624146&forum_id=2Elisa#48280264) |
|
Date: November 4th, 2024 11:07 AM Author: ,.,,.,.,,,,,,..................... Probably Trump, but Rasmussen only has him up by 2 there. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624146&forum_id=2Elisa#48280160) |
|
Date: November 4th, 2024 11:09 AM Author: ,,,,,,,,,,,.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.../.,, Why should i give a fuck about polling though? About 80% of the actual votes are already in (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624146&forum_id=2Elisa#48280166) |
|
Date: November 4th, 2024 11:14 AM Author: ,.,,.,.,,,,,,..................... I hope NV isn't close since they always take forever to count. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624146&forum_id=2Elisa#48280182) |
|
Date: November 4th, 2024 11:32 AM Author: harvested ballots A tasty Harvest. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624146&forum_id=2Elisa#48280269) |
|
Date: November 4th, 2024 11:15 AM Author: .......................................... D-R (ignore the I) is shit for brains math (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624146&forum_id=2Elisa#48280190) |
|
Date: November 4th, 2024 11:16 AM Author: ,,,,,,,,,,,.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.../.,, Why? Is party affiliation not a good predictor of vote? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624146&forum_id=2Elisa#48280195) |
|
Date: November 4th, 2024 11:17 AM Author: ,.,,.,.,,,,,,..................... Dem. Nev. guru Ralston seems very pessimistic so I assume Trump has it there. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624146&forum_id=2Elisa#48280200) |
|
Date: November 4th, 2024 11:26 AM Author: .......................................... Only if Dem break for Trump and GOP break for Harris in equal numbers, which may or may not be true.
And Only if Indies break 50/50 evenly -- which is almost certainly not true |
|
Date: November 4th, 2024 11:41 AM Author: ,,,,,,,,,,,.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.../.,, I will happily bet my life that registered dems will vote for kamala and vice versa at least at historically consistent trends. Neither candidate is very appealing to the other side's voters
The better point imo is that we don't know which way unaffiliated voters will break. But we can still do soem sensitivity analysis and figure out what she'll need |
|
Date: November 4th, 2024 11:36 AM Author: .,.,...,..,.,..:,,:,......,;:.,.:..:.,:,::,. Go make money on betting markets if you’re convinced Nevada is already decided. I still think we don’t know enough about Independents and day of voting to call it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624146&forum_id=2Elisa#48280293) |
|
Date: November 4th, 2024 11:37 AM Author: harvested ballots What about “the nectar harvest.” (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624146&forum_id=2Elisa#48280298) |
|
Date: November 4th, 2024 11:43 AM Author: .....,,,,,...,,,,,..,.,,,,,.,,. The Trafalgar pollster was talking about how unions in Nevada go door to door to collect mail in ballots in the few days before the election and apparently they can swing the vote by several points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624146&forum_id=2Elisa#48280320) |
|
Date: November 4th, 2024 11:44 AM Author: ceci n'est pas un avocat Are casinos heavily Union? Interesting (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624146&forum_id=2Elisa#48280323) |
|
Date: November 4th, 2024 1:35 PM Author: Sickly argumentative UES Jew in puffy jacket Yes, the big one is the Culinary union with about 60k members in places on the Strip and elsewhere in LV. They represent cooks, bartenders, cleaners etc but not people in gaming. There is a smaller UAW local for the gaming employees (dealers, cashiers and so on).
Nevada is still right to work so that also makes the situation unusual. |
|
Date: November 4th, 2024 11:45 AM Author: AZNgirl telling NY State her Dad is a Squirrel 2020 had 1.372m votes
This year 1.9m early ballots requested, 1.086m returned 24% Dem, 38% GOP, 28% "Other"
Why are you retards again assuming Trump is winning when the other segment is HUGE? JFC u retards. And on top of that i wld want to see how mayn early ballots were requested in 2020. Maybe way moar ppl are gonna vote this year
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/nevada-results
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Nevada |
|
Date: November 4th, 2024 11:47 AM Author: little man People are assuming a Trump win because Ralston, the Nevada guru, is predicting a Trump win. He knows more about NV than any other pundit and is almost always correct in his prediction. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624146&forum_id=2Elisa#48280338) |
|
Date: November 4th, 2024 11:48 AM Author: ,,,,,,,,,,,.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.../.,, Also his math makes sense (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624146&forum_id=2Elisa#48280339) |
|
Date: November 4th, 2024 11:48 AM Author: AZNgirl telling NY State her Dad is a Squirrel who cares nigga, all this shit is so close and the polls have all been shown to be faggot no one shld assume anything, take every poll and put 3-4 point margin on it, so no one has any idea wtf will happen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624146&forum_id=2Elisa#48280340) |
|
Date: November 4th, 2024 12:11 PM Author: LathamTouchedMe He hasn’t posted his final prediction yet. Said he will today. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624146&forum_id=2Elisa#48280500) |
|
Date: November 4th, 2024 11:49 AM Author: ....,,....,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.......,.,.,.,.,..,. Do your research. Nevada mails all voters a ballot. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624146&forum_id=2Elisa#48280344) |
|
Date: November 4th, 2024 11:49 AM Author: ,,,,,,,,,,,.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.../.,, (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624146&forum_id=2Elisa#48280346) |
|
Date: November 4th, 2024 11:50 AM Author: AZNgirl telling NY State her Dad is a Squirrel well isnt that nigga (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624146&forum_id=2Elisa#48280351) |
|
Date: November 4th, 2024 11:53 AM Author: MartincourtMinicooper I've not been following poll fraudlies this year, but isnt' the OP link making a pretty big assumption that every registered R is voting for Trump? Isn't there an observed bloc of Rs called never trumpers? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624146&forum_id=2Elisa#48280369) |
|
Date: November 4th, 2024 11:55 AM Author: ,,,,,,,,,,,.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.../.,, "Observed" in trump's bruising primary fight or Liz cheney's continued prominence in the party?
Oh wait. Never trumpers are the blue pandas of us politics. I dont think they actually exist |
|
Date: November 4th, 2024 1:09 PM Author: MartincourtMinicooper I suppose we'll find out tomorrow which of us is right. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624146&forum_id=2Elisa#48280761) |
|
Date: November 4th, 2024 12:05 PM Author: AZNgirl telling NY State her Dad is a Squirrel the bigger issue is 28% are registered "other" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624146&forum_id=2Elisa#48280443) |
|
Date: November 4th, 2024 2:55 PM Author: LathamTouchedMe Ralston just called Nevada for Harris by 0.3%! Oh boy, it's going to be a long night. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624146&forum_id=2Elisa#48281309) |
|
Date: November 4th, 2024 2:58 PM Author: Donald MASE Trump He's been dooming about the EV for weeks now. That's him not being able to bring himself to predict a Trump win. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624146&forum_id=2Elisa#48281331) |
|
Date: November 4th, 2024 2:59 PM Author: richard clock if ralston's right, make that a long week. will be within just a couple thousand and they can count ballots received three days after tuesday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624146&forum_id=2Elisa#48281339) |
|
Date: November 4th, 2024 2:58 PM Author: gedood persoon this guy said they would need to get the R advantage to under 20k to have a chance, and it is 40k LJL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624146&forum_id=2Elisa#48281328) |