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has xo weighed in on the twitter red/blue button meltodwn amongst morons?
Poast new message in this thread
Date: April 26th, 2026 6:25 PM Author: black toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49844920) |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 6:41 PM Author: crawly cerise theatre sneaky criminal Since op didn't explain for his xo bros, the thought experiment is: Everyone on earth is going to push a blue button or a red button. If > 50% push the blue button, everyone survives. If < 50% push the blue button, everyone who pushed blue dies and everyone who pushed red survives. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49844960) |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 7:02 PM Author: Cobalt Thriller Gunner So it's just the prisoner's dilemma? I'd pick blue no question (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49845014) |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 7:03 PM Author: black toaster not really, red is just opting out entirely and blue is subjected all of humanity to the possibility of mass death (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49845021) |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 7:08 PM Author: Cobalt Thriller Gunner What? Either choice could condemn up to 50% of the population to death.
There are two ways everyone survives: 1) Everyone chooses red 2) >50% choose blue
Seems a lot easier to get to the "everyone survives" result with blue, and that's what a lot of us would prefer over guaranteeing our own personal safety. |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 7:10 PM Author: black toaster it is much simpler to simply opt out of the entire thing by choosing red, you could reword the expiriment with no red button and just say there is a blue one that subjects humanity to the possibility that 49% of people die and you can choose to hit it or not, no change in the actual moral calculus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49845050) |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 7:18 PM Author: Cobalt Thriller Gunner You can't just reword the problem because the decision has to do with what you think other people will do, which is sensitive to framing.
There are two issues with this framing anyway. First, "subjects humanity to the possibility" makes it sound like it's somehow random, not dependent on other people's choices. And you'd also have to specify that everyone else is being asked the same thing and that if you don't push it and other people do, up to half of the population, they'll die. |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 7:21 PM Author: black toaster yes, if you push you participate in the expiriment, if you don't, you don't leaving people to freely choose to do something insane is the correct call, hoping that mass insanity will save us all is...well a good cull |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 7:22 PM Author: Cobalt Thriller Gunner You're saying abstainers just wouldn't count at all toward the percentage that determines the outcome? That's a completely different problem. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49845074) |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 7:25 PM Author: black toaster no, they count pricisely the same, they are not subjecting themselves to the expiriment, but the rest of the world is free to do so if they think they can get to 50%, which is fucking retarded (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49845081) |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 9:32 PM Author: Cobalt Thriller Gunner OK, assuming you tighten up the language to make it parallel to the original, it does become a harder question. Again, it's literally a different question because the entire thought experiment is about anticipating other people's decisions, which depends on the precise wording they're presented with.
With your "opt in" framing, the thought process for normal people is, "How likely is it that half of the country would risk their own death to MAYBE protect the people who are stupid/suicidal/sadistic enough to push the button? And based on that, am I willing to risk mine?" – I think I'd have to abstain in that case. |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 9:42 PM Author: Effete Crimson Sanctuary Sound Barrier there's a tiger cage, but you can't see in to it or tell what's going on in there until you jump in. if enough people jump in, they'll be able to save all the people who jumped in. otherwise anyone who jumps in will get killed for sure by the tigers. do you jump in to help out? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49845390) |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 10:15 PM Author: Cobalt Thriller Gunner That's another framing where the answer is "hell no." It ultimately comes down to the fact that it's optional. The trolley problem and all its variants show that people have way different moral intuitions about action vs. inaction.
Action vs. inaction also explains why hank scorpio's example elicits more of a "why would anyone possibly push it?" than the red vs. blue. You need the red button in the hypo because you're taking an action by pushing the button. That action could condemn all the blue pushers to death.
So I think that the blue pushers are thinking about each button in terms of the possible consequences to themselves AND other people, and they want to avoid the consequences to others by going for the "save everybody just in case" option. The question is whether you think more than 50% of people have the collective interest in the group that biases their moral calculus against taking actions that hurt others. Blue pushers think that ultimately most people will put themselves at risk to get to the Good Ending; red pushers don't. |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 11:35 PM Author: Effete Crimson Sanctuary Sound Barrier what you wrote is incoherent
jump in the cage or press the red button |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 11:45 PM Author: Cobalt Thriller Gunner You got it backwards bro (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49845649) |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 11:46 PM Author: Effete Crimson Sanctuary Sound Barrier i don't think i did (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49845653) |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 11:48 PM Author: Cobalt Thriller Gunner Pushing red would keep me alive (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49845655) |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 11:53 PM Author: Effete Crimson Sanctuary Sound Barrier look up "or" in a dictionary? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49845666) |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 11:54 PM Author: Cobalt Thriller Gunner Oh cr (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49845670) |
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Date: April 28th, 2026 10:48 PM Author: Exciting hell "A native metal or its compound with the rock in which it occurs" So ur saying maybe there's a rock in the tiger cage that you can bash it with to increase ur survival odds? |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 8:06 PM Author: Effete Crimson Sanctuary Sound Barrier because you're bad at playing prisoner's dilemma? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49845159) |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 9:42 PM Author: Flushed set corn cake prisoner's dilemma is different than this. this has a pathway for everyone to win (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49845392) |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 10:19 PM Author: Cobalt Thriller Gunner It has two pathways, yes. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49845462) |
Date: April 26th, 2026 6:27 PM Author: razzle-dazzle newt Yeah just kill all blues pretty straightforward
Too bad this will never happen irl and instead our civilization will just wither and die because all of these useless retards have been enabled to breed |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 6:30 PM Author: Cobalt Thriller Gunner edit nvm saw premise above (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49844932) |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 6:30 PM Author: black toaster but virtue signalling on twitter is very important (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49844933) |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 6:45 PM Author: Bisexual Locus Chad Oh the civilization (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49844971) |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 6:38 PM Author: crawly cerise theatre sneaky criminal It's an interesting exercise. Picking blue is my gut reaction for the right thing to do and what I'd do.
Side question: What portion of the world could minimally comprehend the issue? See xo scholarship re people who can't even comprehend and engage with a counterfactual. |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 6:43 PM Author: Free-loading lodge idea he suggested Red is obviously the correct answer. If every single person picks red then every single person on Earth lives. Why would anyone pick blue given this fact? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49844966) |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 6:47 PM Author: razzle-dazzle newt Consider the fact that many “people” are brainless retards who are incapable of independent thought and process everything through instinctive “moral” filters that correspond to absolutely nothing rational in the real world (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49844983) |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 6:48 PM Author: crawly cerise theatre sneaky criminal Is everyone coordinating? Thoughtful people willing to sacrifice for the common good are picking blue, and better not to lose them. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49844986) |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 7:09 PM Author: Cobalt Thriller Gunner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49845047) |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 7:55 PM Author: Free-loading lodge idea he suggested I would need more than half the other people to pick blue for "the greater good", and if I'm wrong I outright die. Red's the only choice (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49845146) |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 7:57 PM Author: Magical Self-absorbed Psychic Sure but all we need is for everyone to choose the option that’s in their best interest anyway. It’s not zero sum (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49845149) |
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Date: April 27th, 2026 9:52 AM Author: Harsh 180 principal's office it's also obvious from this thread many people will pick blue. most people look at this hypo and kneejerk pick blue. seems like the option is between picking blue and being safe and having "participated" in risking mass death or picking red and putting yourself at risk but having "opted out."
i think most people would pick blue in this hypo if it were real and death was on the line. red is an easy choice to make when you know this isn't real and just a hypo. |
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Date: April 28th, 2026 9:07 PM Author: bossy chartreuse abode mad-dog skullcap Because it feels mean and selfish so people would rather chose an option that is probably suicidal. See also the last ~60 years of Western politics (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49849901) |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 6:59 PM Author: black toaster it's entirely about phrasing, it allows you to appear virtuous, but if you just framed it as "Trump has declared a MAGA hunger games, if you choose to participate there will be a winner take all battle royale where everyone else dies, if you choose not to participate you can just say no, but there is a caveat that if half the population chooses to do the hunger games the games are cancelled" and nobody picks that one (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49845007) |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 7:37 PM Author: brass aromatic dilemma queen of the night Yup (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49845125) |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 7:23 PM Author: irradiated buff cruise ship pervert red is a win/win
any other choice is goybait |
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Date: April 27th, 2026 8:02 AM Author: Magical Self-absorbed Psychic "Do you pick red or blue?"
"But I did have breakfast today" |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 6:58 PM Author: Odious Anal Market Factory Reset Button Pressing red as fast as I can and as many times as humanly possible (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49845004) |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 7:21 PM Author: irradiated buff cruise ship pervert goy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49845068) |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 7:55 PM Author: Magical Self-absorbed Psychic Blue is my gut reaction but after a minute of thought it’s obvious red is tcr (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49845147) |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 7:58 PM Author: razzle-dazzle newt https://x.com/refinedpopulist/status/2048444043701449150?s=46
Ran the Blue/Red experiment with three different groups this weekend. Every time:
> Men picked Red > Women picked Blue > Women admit they didn’t understand the rules, and all picked Red after having it explained.
Surely there are no broader implications we can draw from this. |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 11:03 PM Author: fragrant unholy liquid oxygen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49845548) |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 8:03 PM Author: Territorial famous landscape painting xo hypo: If +5% choose black everyone dies. If +95% choose white everyone lives. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49845157) |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 8:08 PM Author: Laughsome Shimmering Fat Ankles Kitchen Lib nonsense because of the colors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49845163) |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 8:10 PM Author: swashbuckling erotic personal credit line Is this a 2005 college board poast I time warped to after taking too big a hit off the gravity bong (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49845168) |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 9:28 PM Author: Chestnut stage trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49845348) |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 8:14 PM Author: exhilarant milk With red you guarantee your survival? it'll be hard to not pick red. but you get a mass casualty event if blue doesn't get a majority. the split would be like 70/30 in favor of blue in the hypo. but IRL, a literal gun to your head, and red would do better imo, closer to 50/50. IF you get a chance to tell people you care about what to choose. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49845183) |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 8:21 PM Author: Effete Crimson Sanctuary Sound Barrier why would anyone push blue except on account of being suicidal? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49845201) |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 9:34 PM Author: exhilarant milk they're thinking of the aftermath with billions dead and just wanting to take the high road idk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49845364) |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 9:38 PM Author: Effete Crimson Sanctuary Sound Barrier but why would billions die. what's the reason for even a single person to press blue (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49845376) |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 9:47 PM Author: Cobalt Thriller Gunner Blue = banding together for the common good. For a lot of us, the desired outcome is for nobody to die. So you can get there with 100% red or 50% blue.
It's kinda like getting the vaxx when it first came out if you believed that it actually worked. Like "I'll put this untested thing in my body in order to help Stop the Spread for the most vulnerable among us." |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 9:51 PM Author: Effete Crimson Sanctuary Sound Barrier what common good? pushing blue doesn't accomplish anything except (possibly) saving people who push blue. so what is the reason for anyone to push blue in the first place? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49845409) |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 9:55 PM Author: glittery magenta school cafeteria (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49845419) |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 10:28 PM Author: Cobalt Thriller Gunner Exactly, possibly saving people who push blue. If your moral calculus highly values avoiding harm to other people, you're going to approach this with the goal of nobody dying. There are two ways this can happen: everyone pushes red or 50%+ push blue. Everyone on Earth is there, so it'd be crazy to assume no one would push blue for any reason. So a lot of us figure, let's shoot for the far more achievable way of making sure nobody dies. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49845471) |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 11:33 PM Author: Effete Crimson Sanctuary Sound Barrier there's a button labeled "push this button and you'll die, unless half of humanity bails your dumb ass out" and you're like "i must press that button" lmao
well, bye |
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Date: April 27th, 2026 8:01 AM Author: Magical Self-absorbed Psychic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49846021) |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 9:47 PM Author: exhilarant milk because like 10+% of people are going to pick blue no matter what. every single "choice" is 50/50 irl. Like 50% of people support Open Borders. That's just what people do. Trump beat Kamala by like a couple million votes in the popular vote. If you aren't "autistic" and realize that people do the shit that people do in predictable and illogical ways, you can see why you'd want to pick blue and have the aftermath be Normal instead of Ruinous. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49845398) |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 9:50 PM Author: Cobalt Thriller Gunner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49845401) |
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Date: April 27th, 2026 1:15 PM Author: big-titted startled den trust fund this is actually a very good explanation cowgod. people are generally dumb and irrational, you can't expect normies to act like lsatmaxxing robots. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49846759) |
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Date: April 27th, 2026 10:15 PM Author: Free-loading lodge idea he suggested Then add in the savior complex types pushing blue for some cow-eyed reason and it'll be 14% blue, all dead. Absolutely no reason to join them (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49847997) |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 8:17 PM Author: glittery magenta school cafeteria there's no upside potential here, only downside.
if you push red, no risk no reward.
if you push blue, huge risk, and no potential reward.
everyone should push red.
the only reason you would ever pick blue is if you assumed a lot of people were really fucking dumb and would push blue for no good reason and wanted to seriously risk your life as a tiny wee part of an effort to save these idiots.
i'd push red. |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 8:21 PM Author: black toaster cr, pushing blue is like volunteering to be a gladiator in Rome just because if you overwhelm the system they'll stop the games (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49845202) |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 8:24 PM Author: glittery magenta school cafeteria the trolley problem, except instead of sending it down the clear track let's see if we can gum it up with our corpses
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Date: April 26th, 2026 10:34 PM Author: Cobalt Thriller Gunner If the problem included the premise "everyone on Earth is an ideally rational actor," there would be a correct answer: red, for the exact reason you said. No risk no reward vs. huge risk no reward.
But in this problem, everyone on Earth is there, and you have to think about what other people are going to do. On the individual level, I guess you could say that everyone who chooses blue is either stupid, suicidal, or sadistic and it's NBD if they die. But people aren't thinking of it like, "why would anyone choose blue?" – they're thinking of it like, "surely some people are going to choose blue, so let's do what we can to make sure we all survive." |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 10:38 PM Author: glittery magenta school cafeteria it still would make no sense.
press the blue button and you individually move it 1/4,150,000,000th of the way closer to that line but accept a 50/50 chance of death for doing it.
press the red button.
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Date: April 26th, 2026 10:47 PM Author: Cobalt Thriller Gunner Why 50/50?
This isn't a logic puzzle with a correct answer where you can calculate expected outcome assuming rational actors. (Those are way more fun.)
This ultimately comes down to how you think other people think. If you think the majority of people would say, "let's just band together and make sure no one dies" then you push blue. If your thoughts are more like, "why would anyone choose the one that could kill them?" then you push red. |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 10:51 PM Author: glittery magenta school cafeteria on the twitter poll where there was nothing at risk but feels, it came down to 42/58. if it were actually real life and death at stake 50/50 seems optimistic.
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Date: April 26th, 2026 10:57 PM Author: Cobalt Thriller Gunner You might be right. Personally I am very stubborn about moral shit and would push blue for sure but I also acknowledge that I might die. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49845535) |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 11:11 PM Author: glittery magenta school cafeteria i'd rather you not die. please press red.
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Date: April 26th, 2026 11:28 PM Author: Cobalt Thriller Gunner That's actually very sweet, thanks bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49845606) |
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Date: April 27th, 2026 1:12 PM Author: fragrant unholy liquid oxygen red is the strictly dominant strategy
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Date: April 26th, 2026 8:27 PM Author: Racy sexy international law enforcement agency turdskin Always bet on black (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49845214) |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 8:34 PM Author: vermilion antidepressant drug if women really picked blue more often, it's like that tilted glass question where women cannot predict the water level. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49845229) |
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Date: April 26th, 2026 11:28 PM Author: dun lascivious hall based, and red-buttoned (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49845605) |
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Date: April 27th, 2026 1:10 PM Author: Big pozpig meetinghouse Isn't this just the hypo in Dark Knight with 2 ferries that can detonate other one? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49846737) |
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Date: April 28th, 2026 10:57 PM Author: Exciting hell No but thanks for self outing as a bluemo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49850150) |
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Date: April 27th, 2026 1:13 PM Author: fragrant unholy liquid oxygen on reflection this would be the perfect Darwinian event, the evaporation of the billions of blue-button-pushers would instantly raise the globe's average IQ by 10-15 points (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49846748) |
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Date: April 28th, 2026 9:39 PM Author: Flushed set corn cake yeah and there would be 90% men. way to go, einstein (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49849979) |
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Date: April 29th, 2026 4:11 AM Author: Free-loading lodge idea he suggested You think 90% of women would actually press the blue button? First of all that would be 45% of the population as a whole which is awfully close to the 50% needed for everyone to survive. Secondly, women are risk-averse survivors. They might say they'll press blue on Twitter without thinking much but if the stakes were real, literal gun to their head etc. they're pressing red. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49850548) |
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Date: April 29th, 2026 5:30 PM Author: Flushed set corn cake yes. hitting blue gives everyone a chance to survive, hitting red does not. women are not risk-averse survivors. women are women. they are emotional. they will not risk killing others even if they fully understand the implications of hitting red or blue. i'm hitting blue with this hypo. what's the worst that can happen? |
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Date: April 28th, 2026 9:34 PM Author: Effete Crimson Sanctuary Sound Barrier if you model it as a binomial probability problem (assume everyone has the same probability of pressing blue and presses are independent), much of any bias towards blue or red makes the probability of pressing the decisive blue press essentially zero. this isn't quite right, but it's more right than wrong (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49849966) |
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Date: April 28th, 2026 9:37 PM Author: Arousing puppy knife blue for 2 reasons:
1) it probably wins
2) even though humans are shit, if you press the red button and it somehow wins, you will end up with the worst of humanity left which means humans you interact with will be even shittier on average |
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Date: April 29th, 2026 5:36 PM Author: Odious Anal Market Factory Reset Button Wow, you, uh...really showed them (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5860807&forum_id=2Elisa#49852242) |