Is there a reasonable lib explanation for where all their votes went? And why
| "'''''"'""'''"'"' | 11/09/24 | | ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, | 11/09/24 | | Senator Lindsey Graham | 11/09/24 | | "'''''"'""'''"'"' | 11/09/24 | | :;:;;;:;:;;;:;:;:;:; | 11/09/24 | | MASE | 11/09/24 | | :;:;;;:;:;;;:;:;:;:; | 11/09/24 | | "'''''"'""'''"'"' | 11/09/24 | | cowstack | 11/09/24 | | MASE | 11/09/24 | | smirk | 11/10/24 | | Candy Ride | 11/09/24 | | Epistemic Humility | 11/10/24 | | TRUMP cheeks | 11/09/24 | | borders (retired) | 11/09/24 | | "'''''"'""'''"'"' | 11/09/24 | | borders (retired) | 11/10/24 | | TSINAH bottoming in gay bar bathroom stall | 11/09/24 | | AZNgirl asking Tom Homan to patrol her pussy | 11/09/24 | | Paddy O'Wagon | 11/09/24 | | borders (retired) | 11/09/24 | | Paddy O'Wagon | 11/09/24 | | borders (retired) | 11/09/24 | | As far as they will go but even farther | 11/09/24 | | ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, | 11/09/24 | | SkaddenArse | 11/09/24 | | ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, | 11/09/24 | | TRUMP cheeks | 11/09/24 | | ...,.......,.....,....,,....,......,......, | 11/09/24 | | As far as they will go but even farther | 11/09/24 | | cowstack | 11/09/24 | | ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, | 11/09/24 | | As far as they will go but even farther | 11/09/24 | | "'''''"'""'''"'"' | 11/09/24 | | ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, | 11/09/24 | | As far as they will go but even farther | 11/09/24 | | "'''''"'""'''"'"' | 11/09/24 | | stolen pallor | 11/09/24 | | "'''''"'""'''"'"' | 11/09/24 | | cowstack | 11/09/24 | | stolen pallor | 11/09/24 | | cowstack | 11/09/24 | | stolen pallor | 11/09/24 | | cowstack | 11/09/24 | | stolen pallor | 11/09/24 | | cowstack | 11/09/24 | | To be fair | 11/09/24 | | stolen pallor | 11/09/24 | | To be fair | 11/09/24 | | stolen pallor | 11/09/24 | | To be fair | 11/09/24 | | stolen pallor | 11/09/24 | | To be fair | 11/09/24 | | Candy Ride | 11/09/24 | | Candy Ride | 11/09/24 | | ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, | 11/09/24 | | Candy Ride | 11/09/24 | | ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, | 11/09/24 | | To be fair | 11/09/24 | | lsd | 11/10/24 | | stolen pallor | 11/09/24 | | To be fair | 11/09/24 | | Candy Ride | 11/09/24 | | ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, | 11/10/24 | | Post nut horror | 11/09/24 | | gibberish (?) | 11/09/24 | | "'''''"'""'''"'"' | 11/09/24 | | Emotionally + Physically Abusive Ex-Husband | 11/09/24 | | gibberish (?) | 11/09/24 | | cowstack | 11/09/24 | | ,..,,,,,,....,,,..., | 11/09/24 | | cowstack | 11/09/24 | | Epistemic Humility | 11/09/24 | | :;:;;;:;;:;;;:;;:;;:;::: | 11/09/24 | | "'''''"'""'''"'"' | 11/09/24 | | :;:;;;:;;:;;;:;;:;;:;::: | 11/09/24 | | ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, | 11/09/24 | | :;:;;;:;;:;;;:;;:;;:;::: | 11/09/24 | | stolen pallor | 11/09/24 | | cowstack | 11/09/24 | | .;:..;:;.:.;.,,,.,.:,.;;,;;;..;, | 11/09/24 | | "'''''"'""'''"'"' | 11/09/24 | | TRUMP cheeks | 11/09/24 | | As far as they will go but even farther | 11/09/24 | | .;:..;:;.:.;.,,,.,.:,.;;,;;;..;, | 11/09/24 | | "'''''"'""'''"'"' | 11/09/24 | | As far as they will go but even farther | 11/09/24 | | "'''''"'""'''"'"' | 11/09/24 | | As far as they will go but even farther | 11/10/24 | | "'''''"'""'''"'"' | 11/09/24 | | FizzKidd | 11/10/24 | | GNOME CHOMSKY | 11/10/24 | | TRUMP cheeks | 11/10/24 | | GNOME CHOMSKY | 11/10/24 | | cowstack | 11/10/24 | | GNOME CHOMSKY | 11/10/24 | | ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, | 11/10/24 | | Brussels Sprout: Brussels,Helsinki,Stockholm,Kyiv | 11/10/24 |
Poast new message in this thread
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Date: November 9th, 2024 9:46 AM
Author: ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
and regained that ability in 2024?
if so, what toggled on in 2020 and off in 2024?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630756&forum_id=2Elisa#48314559) |
Date: November 9th, 2024 9:40 AM Author: :;:;;;:;:;;;:;:;:;:;
*democrats have a good election cycle*
Cons: “THIS IS BLATANT EVIDENCE OF FRAUD!”
*democrats have a bad election cycle*
Cons: “THIS IS BLATANT EVIDENCE OF FRAUD!”
cry wolf much?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630756&forum_id=2Elisa#48314535) |
Date: November 9th, 2024 9:44 AM Author: borders (retired)
Devils advocate:
The mail-in ballots were a big deal. You can harvest the fuck out of them without it being completely fraud by a textbook definition. Fraud can still take place but not 15m votes worth.
People were pissed about Covid. High turnout favors dems.
Extremely shitty female candidate
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630756&forum_id=2Elisa#48314555) |
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Date: November 9th, 2024 12:41 PM
Author: ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
https://x.com/JayFivekiller/status/1854225316878925954
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630756&forum_id=2Elisa#48315194) |
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Date: November 9th, 2024 12:45 PM
Author: ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
it really needs an explanation. (not that we're going to get one.)
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630756&forum_id=2Elisa#48315202) |
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Date: November 9th, 2024 4:15 PM Author: cowstack
Bellwether counties are historically seen as indicators of Electoral College outcomes because they often reflect the political dynamics of key swing states and demographic or economic trends that are broadly influential. Their “predictive power” is less about magic and more about the unique characteristics they represent. Here are some reasons behind this phenomenon:
1. Demographic Similarity: Bellwether counties often have demographic makeups that mirror those of the nation. They may capture a blend of urban and rural populations, racial and ethnic diversity, and socioeconomic backgrounds similar to national averages. This blend means that shifts in voter preferences within these counties often signal broader shifts across the country.
2. Economic Representation: Many bellwether counties have economies that include a mix of industries that drive the national economy, such as manufacturing, agriculture, and services. Economic concerns, which often influence voter preferences, can be a reflection of the challenges or opportunities facing the nation as a whole.
3. Swing State Location: A number of bellwether counties are located within key swing states that are pivotal in the Electoral College. Trends in these counties can mirror the direction that the entire state might swing, which in turn can impact the overall Electoral College map.
4. Balance of Urban and Rural: Bellwether counties often combine urban and rural areas, providing a microcosm of the broader rural-urban divide that influences U.S. electoral outcomes. This balance allows them to reflect trends on both sides of the urban-rural spectrum.
5. Historical Momentum: Counties with a record of voting for the winning candidate may carry a “momentum” that aligns with how campaign strategies are formed and deployed. Candidates and their campaigns may put more emphasis on messaging and policies that resonate with these regions, reinforcing their predictive role.
While bellwether counties have historically provided insight into Electoral College outcomes, their predictive power is not guaranteed and can shift as demographics, economic conditions, and political dynamics evolve.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630756&forum_id=2Elisa#48315874) |
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Date: November 9th, 2024 4:42 PM
Author: ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630756&forum_id=2Elisa#48315962) |
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Date: November 9th, 2024 4:50 PM Author: As far as they will go but even farther (🧐)
their predictive power is not guaranteed and can shift as demographics, economic conditions, and political dynamics evolve.
Wow, guess we have our answer!
Also, please describe the precise mechanism by which counties would be predictors of the electoral college winner. Thanks
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630756&forum_id=2Elisa#48315997) |
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Date: November 9th, 2024 5:15 PM
Author: ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
leaving aside 2020, across ten POTUS election cycles those counties were 96% accurate -- but in 2020 were 94% inaccurate.
odd case!
and, of course, they're accurate once again!
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630756&forum_id=2Elisa#48316084) |
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Date: November 9th, 2024 6:55 PM Author: stolen pallor
Yeah, and in deep-red states like GA and AZ, no one caught on and counted the clearly fraudulent ballots in 2020.
Do you even know how voting by mail works?
And it was so easy to do 4 years ago and so difficult to do now, that they just... Decided not to do it.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630756&forum_id=2Elisa#48316445)
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Date: November 9th, 2024 6:59 PM Author: To be fair (Semi-Retarded)
To be fair,
"Why don't you faggot retards ever have any actual evidence to support your utterly baseless fraud claims? Hmm?"
"I mean, uh... well for starters, you're literally responding to a poast that highlights what an insane statistical aberration 2020 was in the conte--"
"So like I said, not even a single datapoint suggesting fraud? Wow, I'm so shocked! Fucking conturds just making shit up."
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630756&forum_id=2Elisa#48316457) |
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Date: November 9th, 2024 7:03 PM Author: To be fair (Semi-Retarded)
To be fair,
Whoa, hol up hol up -- did "how come you retards never have a shred of actual evidence to support these claims?" suddenly morph into "good sir, I would hardly say that the evidence you just produced here is dispositive on the matter!" within the span of a single poast exchange?
That almost seems like a yuuuuuuge goalpoast shift. Suddenly we went from "you don't even have any evidence" to "I personally am not persuaded by your evidence," which is literally night and day as far as arguments go.
But that can't be right... I mean, you guys are the Adults In The Room(TM) who Always Argue In Good Faith(R), after all...
Lol faggot
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630756&forum_id=2Elisa#48316472) |
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Date: November 9th, 2024 7:08 PM Author: To be fair (Semi-Retarded)
To be fair,
Whoa, and now I'm "a faggot," so QED, uh... something something that means you definitely didn't just shamelessly shift the goalpoasts here ITT (you know, since I'm "a faggot" and all).
Wow you got me so good here Ari, damn, "the walls" etc.
lol JEWISH faggot
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630756&forum_id=2Elisa#48316492) |
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Date: November 9th, 2024 4:48 PM
Author: ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
across ten POTUS elections, the bellwethers produced only 23 "wrong" results out of 170 total results. that's a 13% error rate. but two thirds of those errors came in 2020.
besides 2020, the error rate was just 4% across a sample of 153 results.
in 2020, the error rate was 94%.
so, it was 4% vs 94%. it needs explaining.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630756&forum_id=2Elisa#48315985) |
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Date: November 9th, 2024 4:55 PM
Author: ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630756&forum_id=2Elisa#48316019) |
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Date: November 9th, 2024 6:08 PM Author: stolen pallor
No it doesn't. With as many counties as we have, there's bound to be a handful that would predict the winner over the course of 10 elections, if only by luck on the tail end of a distribution.
What needs explaining is how this supposed massive conspiracy that spanned across states involving millions of votes and thousands of coconspirators left not a shred of evidence it happened.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630756&forum_id=2Elisa#48316277)
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Date: November 9th, 2024 7:01 PM Author: To be fair (Semi-Retarded)
To be fair,
CR it was bound to happen, and it was bound to keep happening in the same counties over and over again, cycle afer cycle, except for the one cycle when suddenly they all got it totally wrong for the first time in decades, before immediately reverting back to the previous pattern of being almost entirely correct once again the next cycle.
That's all just basic statistics. These retards will never understand. It was just *bound* to happen that way.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630756&forum_id=2Elisa#48316465) |
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Date: November 10th, 2024 8:51 AM
Author: ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
"conspiracy that spanned across states involving millions of votes"
====
(guy who hasn't been following the discussion and who completely misunderstands the theory being discussed)
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630756&forum_id=2Elisa#48318188) |
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Date: November 9th, 2024 4:38 PM Author: ,..,,,,,,....,,,...,
I for one was all set to repeat the fraud after we got away with it so cleanly in spite of intense scrutiny, but once Republicans demonstrated their willingness to repeat evidence-free allegations for the millionth time I decided to play it safe this time around.
Somehow the Heritage Foundation tracked down random dudes voting for dead grandmas (which is strangely about 50-50) but missed the massive fraud that injected millions of fake Biden votes. And the crack legal team is saving the really good evidence. And various Republican judges and governors in swing states where legit voters supported Trump were mysteriously asleep at the wheel rather than blowing the lid off a scandal that would have guaranteed star status and pretty much whatever job they wanted in right-leaning circles. But internet lunatics figured it out and already shared all the evidence in invisible ink that you can only read with magic goggles, which we can’t find right now but they will surely turn up soon.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630756&forum_id=2Elisa#48315946) |
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Date: November 9th, 2024 5:16 PM
Author: ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
i assume that Dem harvesting was far more aggressive last time but they knew that Republicans were watching it super closely this time.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630756&forum_id=2Elisa#48316093) |
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Date: November 10th, 2024 11:59 AM
Author: ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
Leslie Moonves (CBS) on Donald Trump: “It May Not Be Good for America, but It’s Damn Good for CBS”
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630756&forum_id=2Elisa#48318770)
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