The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
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The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich | 12/10/15 |
| Rambunctious death wish crackhouse | 12/12/15 |
| House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich | 01/02/17 |
| Rebellious Field Windowlicker | 01/06/16 |
| territorial flirting faggot firefighter spot | 01/06/16 |
| territorial flirting faggot firefighter spot | 06/05/16 |
| Lilac menage | 03/26/16 |
| blathering fragrant juggernaut abode | 01/02/17 |
| Very Tactful Water Buffalo Native | 10/25/18 |
| Pink multi-colored hairy legs | 12/10/15 |
| cracking house alpha | 12/10/15 |
| Jet-lagged hunting ground | 12/10/15 |
| underhanded site mental disorder | 12/10/15 |
| Orange charismatic office | 12/15/15 |
| slate ticket booth voyeur | 12/10/15 |
| Seedy church building gunner | 12/10/15 |
| iridescent whorehouse people who are hurt | 12/10/15 |
| Provocative light box office | 12/11/15 |
| mauve faggotry | 12/12/15 |
| mustard fortuitous meteor | 12/16/15 |
| Cobalt son of senegal shrine | 01/04/16 |
| spruce psychic selfie | 11/09/16 |
| House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich | 12/11/15 |
| Useless bateful sneaky criminal generalized bond | 12/11/15 |
| Trip fishy goal in life preventive strike | 12/11/15 |
| Provocative light box office | 12/11/15 |
| Cerebral elastic band weed whacker | 12/12/15 |
| violent hominid | 01/25/16 |
| Doobsian irradiated state double fault | 11/10/16 |
| House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich | 12/12/15 |
| fuchsia national round eye | 12/12/15 |
| Concupiscible Slimy Space Ape | 12/12/15 |
| Razzle-dazzle Idea He Suggested Nowag | 12/12/15 |
| contagious black woman brunch | 12/15/15 |
| Galvanic casino | 12/21/15 |
| marvelous lodge | 12/12/15 |
| vivacious party of the first part | 12/12/15 |
| sickened abusive newt | 12/12/15 |
| duck-like school cafeteria kitty | 12/12/15 |
| Medicated Aromatic Candlestick Maker Set | 12/12/15 |
| mind-boggling azn tanning salon | 12/12/15 |
| Seedy church building gunner | 12/15/15 |
| Seedy church building gunner | 12/16/15 |
| razzmatazz fluffy chapel | 12/15/15 |
| diverse parlor | 12/15/15 |
| histrionic avocado home | 12/15/15 |
| hairraiser sanctuary antidepressant drug | 12/15/15 |
| sooty nubile cruise ship | 12/15/15 |
| mentally impaired offensive step-uncle's house | 12/15/15 |
| House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich | 12/15/15 |
| House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich | 12/15/15 |
| House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich | 12/15/15 |
| House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich | 12/15/15 |
| House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich | 12/15/15 |
| Odious Ungodly Dilemma Community Account | 01/05/16 |
| violent hominid | 01/25/16 |
| Jade Learning Disabled Locus | 12/17/16 |
| Crawly rigpig | 05/18/16 |
| peach theater | 08/12/16 |
| House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich | 11/09/16 |
| Red mad cow disease jewess | 11/09/16 |
| swollen electric friendly grandma | 11/09/16 |
| Dun bat-shit-crazy legal warrant | 10/22/20 |
| Racy Address | 12/15/15 |
| green vigorous senate boltzmann | 12/16/15 |
| Coral Theater Stage Pistol | 12/16/15 |
| Floppy library puppy | 12/16/15 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 12/16/15 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 12/17/15 |
| cheese-eating gaped den ratface | 12/18/15 |
| Rebellious Field Windowlicker | 01/06/16 |
| Painfully Honest Hospital | 12/18/15 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 12/21/15 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 12/21/15 |
| Galvanic casino | 12/21/15 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 12/30/15 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 12/30/15 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 01/04/16 |
| Cobalt son of senegal shrine | 01/04/16 |
| House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich | 01/05/16 |
| violent hominid | 01/25/16 |
| cheese-eating gaped den ratface | 01/05/16 |
| magical dull locale coffee pot | 01/05/16 |
| mildly autistic bisexual plaza | 01/05/16 |
| Heady lay nibblets | 01/05/16 |
| twisted trailer park | 01/05/16 |
| Heady lay nibblets | 01/05/16 |
| Rebellious Field Windowlicker | 01/06/16 |
| Heady lay nibblets | 01/06/16 |
| twisted trailer park | 01/05/16 |
| peach theater | 01/06/16 |
| Galvanic casino | 01/07/16 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 01/08/16 |
| thriller institution | 01/08/16 |
| Galvanic casino | 01/08/16 |
| cheese-eating gaped den ratface | 01/09/16 |
| Galvanic casino | 01/10/16 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 01/18/16 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 01/19/16 |
| cheese-eating gaped den ratface | 01/21/16 |
| House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich | 01/25/16 |
| Translucent partner | 01/25/16 |
| violent hominid | 01/25/16 |
| Translucent partner | 02/09/16 |
| thriller institution | 09/06/16 |
| Rebellious Field Windowlicker | 11/05/18 |
| amber meetinghouse genital piercing | 01/29/16 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 02/01/16 |
| claret motley center useless brakes | 02/01/16 |
| House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich | 02/01/16 |
| House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich | 02/07/16 |
| magical dull locale coffee pot | 02/09/16 |
| zippy idiot | 02/09/16 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 02/20/16 |
| French Range Dog Poop | 02/20/16 |
| Crawly rigpig | 02/24/16 |
| fantasy-prone trump supporter business firm | 02/24/16 |
| Carnelian zombie-like volcanic crater | 02/27/16 |
| razzmatazz fluffy chapel | 03/09/16 |
| Maniacal supple resort | 03/15/16 |
| Jet-lagged hunting ground | 03/15/16 |
| diverse parlor | 03/16/16 |
| Insanely Creepy Gas Station Pervert | 02/24/16 |
| Coiffed market | 02/24/16 |
| diverse parlor | 07/21/16 |
| Soul-stirring Bespoke Internal Respiration | 02/24/16 |
| Jet-lagged hunting ground | 02/27/16 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 03/02/16 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 03/04/16 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 03/09/16 |
| magical dull locale coffee pot | 03/09/16 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 03/15/16 |
| Crawly rigpig | 03/15/16 |
| cyan angry blood rage school | 03/15/16 |
| topaz trust fund | 03/15/16 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 03/16/16 |
| Seedy church building gunner | 03/16/16 |
| Red mad cow disease jewess | 03/23/16 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 03/23/16 |
| sickened abusive newt | 03/26/16 |
| stimulating corner keepsake machete | 03/26/16 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 03/26/16 |
| Odious Ungodly Dilemma Community Account | 03/28/16 |
| Red mad cow disease jewess | 03/28/16 |
| cracking house alpha | 03/28/16 |
| peach theater | 08/12/16 |
| Rebellious Field Windowlicker | 11/05/18 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 03/28/16 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 03/29/16 |
| Talented Misunderstood Mediation | 03/29/16 |
| Talented Misunderstood Mediation | 03/29/16 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 03/29/16 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 03/29/16 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 04/01/16 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 04/04/16 |
| Talented Misunderstood Mediation | 04/15/16 |
| Splenetic Frisky Area Stock Car | 04/15/16 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 04/19/16 |
| Bearded Poppy Patrolman Pit | 04/20/16 |
| pea-brained foreskin kitty cat | 04/20/16 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 04/24/16 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 04/25/16 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 04/26/16 |
| adventurous philosopher-king | 04/26/16 |
| Hyperventilating effete boiling water electric furnace | 04/30/16 |
| boyish garrison | 05/01/16 |
| boyish garrison | 11/07/16 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 05/02/16 |
| Red mad cow disease jewess | 05/02/16 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 05/03/16 |
| Costumed Regret Station | 05/03/16 |
| Silver Point Stain | 05/03/16 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 05/04/16 |
| thriller institution | 05/04/16 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 05/05/16 |
| duck-like school cafeteria kitty | 05/05/16 |
| House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich | 05/05/16 |
| Coiffed market | 05/05/16 |
| fuchsia national round eye | 05/18/16 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 05/18/16 |
| Crawly rigpig | 05/18/16 |
| fuchsia national round eye | 05/18/16 |
| House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich | 05/29/16 |
| House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich | 06/20/16 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 06/29/16 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 07/14/16 |
| Misanthropic mint love of her life | 07/15/16 |
| peach theater | 07/15/16 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 07/17/16 |
| thriller institution | 07/17/16 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 07/21/16 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 07/22/16 |
| stirring stage legend | 07/22/16 |
| arousing indirect expression liquid oxygen | 07/23/16 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 07/24/16 |
| Black Twinkling Uncleanness | 07/25/16 |
| Talented Misunderstood Mediation | 07/25/16 |
| House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich | 07/27/16 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 08/05/16 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 08/09/16 |
| House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich | 08/12/16 |
| thriller institution | 08/12/16 |
| House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich | 08/12/16 |
| Garnet Church Codepig | 08/12/16 |
| House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich | 08/30/16 |
| thriller institution | 08/30/16 |
| thriller institution | 09/06/16 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 09/13/16 |
| Talented Misunderstood Mediation | 09/14/16 |
| marvelous lodge | 09/14/16 |
| rose cowardly wrinkle | 09/15/16 |
| wine sexy background story | 09/15/16 |
| territorial flirting faggot firefighter spot | 09/15/16 |
| white jew | 09/15/16 |
| ivory depressive parlour | 09/15/16 |
| big location | 09/19/16 |
| big location | 09/19/16 |
| thriller institution | 09/27/16 |
| House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich | 09/24/16 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 09/27/16 |
| thriller institution | 09/27/16 |
| Seedy church building gunner | 09/27/16 |
| Saffron hideous private investor ladyboy | 10/08/16 |
| violent excitant degenerate toaster | 07/29/24 |
| Talented Misunderstood Mediation | 09/28/16 |
| marvelous lodge | 09/28/16 |
| thriller institution | 09/28/16 |
| pea-brained foreskin kitty cat | 09/28/16 |
| Splenetic Frisky Area Stock Car | 09/28/16 |
| vibrant indian lodge | 10/08/16 |
| thriller institution | 10/09/16 |
| Bronze Curious Striped Hyena | 10/09/16 |
| thriller institution | 10/09/16 |
| Talking persian reading party | 10/09/16 |
| Talented Misunderstood Mediation | 10/10/16 |
| Black Twinkling Uncleanness | 10/30/16 |
| peach theater | 11/01/16 |
| white jew | 11/01/16 |
| Maroon Forum International Law Enforcement Agency | 11/02/16 |
| hairraiser sanctuary antidepressant drug | 11/02/16 |
| Talented Misunderstood Mediation | 11/07/16 |
| Big-titted Pisswyrm Theatre | 11/08/16 |
| Talented Misunderstood Mediation | 11/08/16 |
| House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich | 11/08/16 |
| Talented Misunderstood Mediation | 11/08/16 |
| ultramarine pocket flask | 11/08/16 |
| lascivious tattoo | 11/08/16 |
| claret motley center useless brakes | 11/08/16 |
| big location | 11/08/16 |
| House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich | 11/08/16 |
| Bonkers Halford Public Bath | 11/09/16 |
| rose cowardly wrinkle | 11/09/16 |
| Flatulent Multi-billionaire Famous Landscape Painting | 11/09/16 |
| House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich | 11/09/16 |
| white jew | 11/09/16 |
| Bonkers Halford Public Bath | 11/09/16 |
| Black Twinkling Uncleanness | 11/09/16 |
| duck-like school cafeteria kitty | 11/09/16 |
| bistre nursing home cuckoldry | 12/03/16 |
| Doobsian irradiated state double fault | 12/07/16 |
| Jade Learning Disabled Locus | 12/17/16 |
| Chartreuse personal credit line hell | 10/11/24 |
| grizzly yapping dysfunction | 11/09/16 |
| Adulterous incel | 11/09/16 |
| violet bawdyhouse skinny woman | 11/09/16 |
| aphrodisiac well-lubricated mood rehab | 11/09/16 |
| bistre nursing home cuckoldry | 11/09/16 |
| peach theater | 11/09/16 |
| House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich | 11/09/16 |
| fuchsia national round eye | 11/09/16 |
| thriller institution | 11/09/16 |
| insecure deep dragon | 11/09/16 |
| House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich | 11/09/16 |
| lavender self-centered filthpig | 11/09/16 |
| Salmon Boistinker | 11/09/16 |
| House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich | 11/09/16 |
| underhanded site mental disorder | 11/09/16 |
| Painfully Honest Hospital | 11/10/16 |
| Translucent partner | 11/10/16 |
| territorial flirting faggot firefighter spot | 11/10/16 |
| Swashbuckling Brethren Principal's Office | 11/10/16 |
| House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich | 11/10/16 |
| Talented Misunderstood Mediation | 11/10/16 |
| French Range Dog Poop | 11/10/16 |
| big location | 11/14/16 |
| Massive gaping macaca | 11/14/16 |
| Sable haunted graveyard orchestra pit | 12/04/16 |
| Jade Learning Disabled Locus | 12/17/16 |
| Chartreuse personal credit line hell | 10/11/24 |
| House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich | 11/25/16 |
| exhilarant jet heaven half-breed | 12/03/16 |
| Talking persian reading party | 12/04/16 |
| Lake startled new version | 12/07/16 |
| territorial flirting faggot firefighter spot | 12/07/16 |
| exhilarant jet heaven half-breed | 12/07/16 |
| House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich | 01/02/17 |
| Plum Dashing Kitchen Yarmulke | 01/02/17 |
| House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich | 01/02/17 |
| Plum Dashing Kitchen Yarmulke | 01/02/17 |
| House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich | 03/03/20 |
| territorial flirting faggot firefighter spot | 01/02/17 |
| Red mad cow disease jewess | 01/16/17 |
| Plum Dashing Kitchen Yarmulke | 01/20/17 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 01/20/17 |
| Plum Dashing Kitchen Yarmulke | 01/23/17 |
| vibrant indian lodge | 01/23/17 |
| Plum Dashing Kitchen Yarmulke | 01/23/17 |
| clear factory reset button lettuce | 01/23/17 |
| vibrant indian lodge | 01/23/17 |
| Plum Dashing Kitchen Yarmulke | 01/23/17 |
| Plum Dashing Kitchen Yarmulke | 01/25/17 |
| Plum Dashing Kitchen Yarmulke | 01/26/17 |
| Plum Dashing Kitchen Yarmulke | 02/06/17 |
| Plum Dashing Kitchen Yarmulke | 02/13/17 |
| Plum Dashing Kitchen Yarmulke | 02/27/17 |
| Plum Dashing Kitchen Yarmulke | 05/03/17 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 05/03/17 |
| Plum Dashing Kitchen Yarmulke | 09/21/17 |
| Jet-lagged hunting ground | 01/23/17 |
| white jew | 02/27/17 |
| Rebellious Field Windowlicker | 03/22/17 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 04/17/17 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 05/08/17 |
| House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich | 06/20/17 |
| House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich | 08/10/17 |
| House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich | 10/15/17 |
| Red mad cow disease jewess | 10/15/17 |
| Cordovan 180 french chef | 10/15/17 |
| House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich | 11/06/17 |
| Sticky laughsome hall main people | 11/06/17 |
| puce gay wizard dopamine | 11/08/17 |
| Wonderful Ebony University | 11/08/17 |
| Beady-eyed stage | 11/13/17 |
| Red mad cow disease jewess | 12/18/17 |
| thriller institution | 12/18/17 |
| Red mad cow disease jewess | 12/18/17 |
| House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich | 01/30/18 |
| territorial flirting faggot firefighter spot | 06/01/18 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 07/18/18 |
| Red mad cow disease jewess | 07/19/18 |
| ivory depressive parlour | 09/20/18 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 09/25/18 |
| cracking house alpha | 10/06/18 |
| House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich | 10/06/18 |
| territorial flirting faggot firefighter spot | 10/25/18 |
| wine sexy background story | 10/25/18 |
| violent hominid | 11/05/18 |
| territorial flirting faggot firefighter spot | 11/05/18 |
| Rebellious Field Windowlicker | 11/05/18 |
| territorial flirting faggot firefighter spot | 11/05/18 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 01/08/19 |
| passionate turdskin clown | 02/23/19 |
| House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich | 03/13/19 |
| violent hominid | 06/24/19 |
| Unholy stead mother | 06/24/19 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 11/18/19 |
| white jew | 02/12/20 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 02/12/20 |
| House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich | 03/24/20 |
| Nighttime Judgmental Property Fat Ankles | 03/24/20 |
| Misanthropic mint love of her life | 04/04/20 |
| House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich | 04/26/20 |
| House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich | 05/13/20 |
| Misanthropic mint love of her life | 06/05/20 |
| spectacular pontificating piazza tank | 06/05/20 |
| Misanthropic mint love of her life | 09/09/20 |
| white jew | 09/09/20 |
| Pink multi-colored hairy legs | 09/09/20 |
| Bipolar Comical Really Tough Guy | 09/12/20 |
| high-end stag film | 09/24/20 |
| Unholy stead mother | 10/09/20 |
| Red mad cow disease jewess | 10/10/20 |
| glittery fanboi | 10/22/20 |
| bistre nursing home cuckoldry | 10/22/20 |
| Dun bat-shit-crazy legal warrant | 10/22/20 |
| Dun bat-shit-crazy legal warrant | 10/22/20 |
| Ruddy harsh | 03/23/22 |
| House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich | 10/27/20 |
| Rebellious Field Windowlicker | 10/27/20 |
| Unholy stead mother | 10/30/20 |
| Red mad cow disease jewess | 11/03/20 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 03/22/22 |
| Razzle roast beef | 03/23/22 |
| Primrose doctorate | 03/23/22 |
| Transparent | 03/23/22 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 07/25/22 |
| Pink multi-colored hairy legs | 07/25/22 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 10/23/22 |
| House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich | 11/16/22 |
| House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich | 04/25/23 |
| fuchsia national round eye | 04/25/23 |
| high-end stag film | 04/29/23 |
| violent excitant degenerate toaster | 05/28/23 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 02/22/24 |
| high-end stag film | 02/23/24 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 05/23/24 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 08/26/24 |
| high-end stag film | 09/13/24 |
| Pink multi-colored hairy legs | 09/13/24 |
| high-end stag film | 10/18/24 |
| Chartreuse personal credit line hell | 10/11/24 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 11/06/24 |
| duck-like school cafeteria kitty | 03/04/25 |
| duck-like school cafeteria kitty | 03/04/25 |
| ivory depressive parlour | 03/04/25 |
| Chartreuse personal credit line hell | 03/04/25 |
| thirsty roommate | 03/04/25 |
| Sepia prole scourge upon the earth | 03/05/25 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 03/07/25 |
| scarlet appetizing | 03/07/25 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 03/08/25 |
| Idiotic | 03/08/25 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 03/08/25 |
| Jet-lagged hunting ground | 02/18/26 |
| Opaque titillating temple | 05/15/26 |
| Exciting Digit Ratio Crotch | 05/17/26 |
| coalition of rabbis | 08/11/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Rambunctious death wish crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29364653) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32284620) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: Rebellious Field Windowlicker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29532817) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: territorial flirting faggot firefighter spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29532846) |
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Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM Author: territorial flirting faggot firefighter spot another bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30631018) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:16 PM Author: Lilac menage 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30144195) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:00 PM Author: blathering fragrant juggernaut abode (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32284612) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM Author: Very Tactful Water Buffalo Native "October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#37090197) |
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM Author: Pink multi-colored hairy legs (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29351706) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:52 PM Author: cracking house alpha 1800000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29351728) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: Jet-lagged hunting ground 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29351742) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: underhanded site mental disorder Fantastic work ITT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29351744) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:08 PM Author: Orange charismatic office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29384172) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:55 PM Author: slate ticket booth voyeur FUCK | THIS | KIKE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29351749) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: Seedy church building gunner Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29351753) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: iridescent whorehouse people who are hurt Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: Provocative light box office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29359932) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: mauve faggotry Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29364985) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: mustard fortuitous meteor Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29392387) |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: Cobalt son of senegal shrine Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: spruce psychic selfie (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31854764) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:05 PM Author: House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29359811) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:07 PM Author: Useless bateful sneaky criminal generalized bond (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29359818) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:10 PM Author: Trip fishy goal in life preventive strike 180 million (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29359849) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:20 PM Author: Provocative light box office November 9th 2016: s.e.g.a. sucking cock at Port Authority for bus fare (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29359926) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: Cerebral elastic band weed whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29364617) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:40 PM Author: violent hominid Don't edit loser (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29677834) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:52 AM Author: Doobsian irradiated state double fault (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31866880) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:09 PM Author: House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29364607) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: fuchsia national round eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29364621) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: Concupiscible Slimy Space Ape lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29364630) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM Author: Razzle-dazzle Idea He Suggested Nowag March 9
THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
THE CORSICAN OGRE HAS LANDED AT CAPE JUAN
March 11
THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP
March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL
He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS
March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:06 PM Author: contagious black woman brunch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29384155) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:26 PM Author: Galvanic casino 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29429271) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:51 PM Author: marvelous lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29364847) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:55 PM Author: vivacious party of the first part lol, 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29364873) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: sickened abusive newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29364887) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: duck-like school cafeteria kitty (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29364890) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:59 PM Author: Medicated Aromatic Candlestick Maker Set Well done. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29364896) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:08 PM Author: mind-boggling azn tanning salon Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke myself to a FULL CHUB while reading. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29364933) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: Seedy church building gunner OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29383835) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: Seedy church building gunner And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM Author: razzmatazz fluffy chapel 190 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29383898) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: diverse parlor fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29383961) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: histrionic avocado home I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29384107) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: hairraiser sanctuary antidepressant drug 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29384183) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: sooty nubile cruise ship February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: mentally impaired offensive step-uncle's house You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29384207) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29384231) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29384237) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29384254) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29384262) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: Odious Ungodly Dilemma Community Account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29525662) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:43 PM Author: violent hominid Can't wait to bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29677869) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: Jade Learning Disabled Locus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32165246) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:11 AM Author: Crawly rigpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30504262) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: peach theater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31172544) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31846270) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Red mad cow disease jewess (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31846325) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: swollen electric friendly grandma Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: Dun bat-shit-crazy legal warrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#41167037) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Racy Address This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29384232) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:34 PM Author: green vigorous senate boltzmann 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29392396) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:37 PM Author: Coral Theater Stage Pistol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29392414) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:39 PM Author: Floppy library puppy Incredible (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29392427) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: Opaque titillating temple Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
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Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: Opaque titillating temple Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: cheese-eating gaped den ratface (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29411300) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Rebellious Field Windowlicker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29532836) |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: Painfully Honest Hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29411342) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: Opaque titillating temple Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: Opaque titillating temple "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: Galvanic casino 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29429241) |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Opaque titillating temple "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Opaque titillating temple One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: Opaque titillating temple This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: Cobalt son of senegal shrine flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29519032) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29525598) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: violent hominid Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29677890) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: cheese-eating gaped den ratface From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:11 PM Author: magical dull locale coffee pot 1800000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29531444) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: mildly autistic bisexual plaza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29531475) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: Heady lay nibblets An historic poast (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29531481) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:16 PM Author: twisted trailer park 180 trillion (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29531500) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: Heady lay nibblets I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:45 AM Author: Rebellious Field Windowlicker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29532843) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: Heady lay nibblets Bump to make sure my friends saw this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29535993) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: twisted trailer park No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29531557) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: peach theater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29532829) |
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Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: Galvanic casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29546163) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: Opaque titillating temple “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: thriller institution 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29551314) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: Galvanic casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29554010) |
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Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: cheese-eating gaped den ratface http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29559692) |
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Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: Galvanic casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29566112) |
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Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: Opaque titillating temple http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29622950) |
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Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: Opaque titillating temple Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
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Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: cheese-eating gaped den ratface looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:26 PM Author: House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29677719) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:48 PM Author: violent hominid You're a democratic, remember? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29677913) |
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Date: February 9th, 2016 9:02 PM Author: Translucent partner No way! 100% TRUMPMO (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29791782) |
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Date: February 20th, 2016 7:57 PM Author: French Range Dog Poop OK man, can you tell us how you did this? (Not how you predicted it, but how you wrote it so brilliantly.) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29877434) |
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this is better than any snl sketch in the last 5 to 10 years. |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:42 AM Author: diverse parlor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30987707) |
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Date: February 27th, 2016 6:54 PM Author: Jet-lagged hunting ground (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29931637) |
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Date: March 4th, 2016 1:38 AM Author: Opaque titillating temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#29976826) |
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Date: March 9th, 2016 12:44 AM Author: Opaque titillating temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30015799) |
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Date: March 9th, 2016 12:55 AM Author: magical dull locale coffee pot yeah anyone who wants to win money on predictit markets should just consult this turtle shell oracle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30015891) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 8:46 PM Author: Opaque titillating temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30065629) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 9:05 PM Author: Crawly rigpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30065970) |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM Author: Opaque titillating temple It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/ |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:54 AM Author: Seedy church building gunner March is very accurate. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30070601) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2016 10:49 AM Author: Red mad cow disease jewess (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30119676) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2016 9:30 AM Author: Opaque titillating temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30119337) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 11:24 AM Author: sickened abusive newt http://imgur.com/ZVbDMXh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30140474) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 11:30 AM Author: stimulating corner keepsake machete Lol,holy Fuck (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30140513) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:14 PM Author: Opaque titillating temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30144174) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Odious Ungodly Dilemma Community Account jesus. . . (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30151942) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:20 AM Author: Red mad cow disease jewess (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30151965) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:23 AM Author: cracking house alpha (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30151975) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: peach theater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31172540) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:20 AM Author: Rebellious Field Windowlicker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#37162050) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: Opaque titillating temple "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: Opaque titillating temple "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:32 PM Author: Talented Misunderstood Mediation lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30160689) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: Talented Misunderstood Mediation "One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 5:14 PM Author: Opaque titillating temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30161654) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM Author: Opaque titillating temple http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30163086) |
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Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: Opaque titillating temple http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30183235) |
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Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: Opaque titillating temple "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: Talented Misunderstood Mediation interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:47 AM Author: Splenetic Frisky Area Stock Car (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30279158) |
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Date: April 19th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: Opaque titillating temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30307876) |
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Date: April 20th, 2016 11:03 AM Author: Bearded Poppy Patrolman Pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30310760) |
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Date: April 20th, 2016 11:13 AM Author: pea-brained foreskin kitty cat I love this thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30310807) |
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Date: April 24th, 2016 1:07 AM Author: Opaque titillating temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30335375) |
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Date: April 25th, 2016 10:37 PM Author: Opaque titillating temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30346848) |
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Date: April 26th, 2016 9:29 PM Author: Opaque titillating temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30353572) |
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Date: April 26th, 2016 9:31 PM Author: adventurous philosopher-king (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30353587) |
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Date: April 30th, 2016 2:23 PM Author: Hyperventilating effete boiling water electric furnace (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30378951) |
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Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: boyish garrison Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:27 PM Author: boyish garrison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31825048) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 7:16 PM Author: Opaque titillating temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30392947) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 8:17 PM Author: Red mad cow disease jewess (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30393360) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: Opaque titillating temple The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:35 PM Author: Costumed Regret Station holy shit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30398720) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 9:15 PM Author: Silver Point Stain (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30402170) |
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Date: May 4th, 2016 9:04 AM Author: Opaque titillating temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30405223) |
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Date: May 4th, 2016 9:33 AM Author: thriller institution 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30405346) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: Opaque titillating temple Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:02 AM Author: duck-like school cafeteria kitty Lol every response is "how about Obama?" What a hack (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30412976) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 10:40 AM Author: House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich LOL 12 years in this place and I think I found my magnum opus, fml (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30412844) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:05 AM Author: Coiffed market Yeah bro. You should mic drop and walk the fuck away. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30412994) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: fuchsia national round eye This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30504267) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:03 AM Author: Opaque titillating temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30504223) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Crawly rigpig In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is an all-time great first ballot HOF poast, I'm just curious: How long did it take you to put this masterstroke together? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30504268) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM Author: fuchsia national round eye cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30504274) |
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Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM Author: House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30583536) |
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Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30746085) |
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Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: Opaque titillating temple Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
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Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: Opaque titillating temple http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30924907) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: Misanthropic mint love of her life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30933127) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: peach theater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30933205) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: Opaque titillating temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30956384) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: thriller institution 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30956397) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: Opaque titillating temple http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30987656) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: Opaque titillating temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30999290) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: stirring stage legend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#30999301) |
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Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: arousing indirect expression liquid oxygen Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31006876) |
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Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: Opaque titillating temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31020363) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: Black Twinkling Uncleanness Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31022942) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: Talented Misunderstood Mediation amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31023351) |
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Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31043518) |
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Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Opaque titillating temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31113817) |
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Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: Opaque titillating temple http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: thriller institution holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31172565) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31172569) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: Garnet Church Codepig LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31172627) |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: thriller institution 180 i want 2 believe |
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Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: thriller institution lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31345879) |
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Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: Opaque titillating temple Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: Talented Misunderstood Mediation ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31404088) |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: marvelous lodge Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31404101) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: rose cowardly wrinkle September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: wine sexy background story September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: territorial flirting faggot firefighter spot god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31413930) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: white jew XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31413938) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: ivory depressive parlour (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31413954) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: big location (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31443744) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: big location The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31443779) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: thriller institution let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31503555) |
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Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31482152) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: Opaque titillating temple http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31503552) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: thriller institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31503554) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Seedy church building gunner This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31503556) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: Saffron hideous private investor ladyboy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31592208) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: violent excitant degenerate toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#47906632) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: Talented Misunderstood Mediation http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: marvelous lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31511665) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: thriller institution 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31511673) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: pea-brained foreskin kitty cat This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31512070) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: Splenetic Frisky Area Stock Car (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31513385) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: vibrant indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31592192) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: thriller institution hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31594952) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Bronze Curious Striped Hyena Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31594953) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: thriller institution doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31594954) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Talking persian reading party half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31594956) |
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Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: Talented Misunderstood Mediation nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
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Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: Black Twinkling Uncleanness close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31763265) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: peach theater Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31772625) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: white jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31777531) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM Author: Maroon Forum International Law Enforcement Agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31782180) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM Author: hairraiser sanctuary antidepressant drug (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31786832) |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: Talented Misunderstood Mediation prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31825019) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Big-titted Pisswyrm Theatre You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31833310) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Talented Misunderstood Mediation true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31833315) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31839758) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: Talented Misunderstood Mediation ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31844114) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:04 PM Author: ultramarine pocket flask (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31842891) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: lascivious tattoo Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:33 PM Author: claret motley center useless brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31843660) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:59 PM Author: big location (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31844292) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:10 PM Author: House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31844674) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:07 AM Author: Bonkers Halford Public Bath (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31846281) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: rose cowardly wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31846326) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:12 AM Author: Flatulent Multi-billionaire Famous Landscape Painting (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31846448) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:22 AM Author: House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31848552) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM Author: white jew GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31848608) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM Author: Bonkers Halford Public Bath (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31848693) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:30 AM Author: Black Twinkling Uncleanness it really deserves national attention (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31848755) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:31 AM Author: duck-like school cafeteria kitty (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31848775) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 2:00 AM Author: bistre nursing home cuckoldry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32044462) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Doobsian irradiated state double fault (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32076291) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Jade Learning Disabled Locus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32165256) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Chartreuse personal credit line hell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48187313) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:29 AM Author: grizzly yapping dysfunction (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31848725) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:54 AM Author: Adulterous incel Historic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31849301) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:03 AM Author: violet bawdyhouse skinny woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31849447) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: aphrodisiac well-lubricated mood rehab 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: bistre nursing home cuckoldry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31851790) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: peach theater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31852918) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31854576) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: fuchsia national round eye this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31854584) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: thriller institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31855383) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: insecure deep dragon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31855482) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31863076) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: lavender self-centered filthpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31863082) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: Salmon Boistinker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31863093) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: underhanded site mental disorder you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31863503) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:58 AM Author: Painfully Honest Hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31866924) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: Translucent partner Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31868448) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: territorial flirting faggot firefighter spot bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31866864) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM Author: Swashbuckling Brethren Principal's Office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31867005) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: Talented Misunderstood Mediation ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31868235) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: French Range Dog Poop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31868543) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: big location (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31907692) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: Massive gaping macaca They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31907697) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: Sable haunted graveyard orchestra pit Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32055646) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Jade Learning Disabled Locus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32165261) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Chartreuse personal credit line hell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48187317) |
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Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#31989410) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: exhilarant jet heaven half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32044435) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: Talking persian reading party GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32055631) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: Lake startled new version https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32076268) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: territorial flirting faggot firefighter spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32076292) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: exhilarant jet heaven half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32076345) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32284600) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Plum Dashing Kitchen Yarmulke October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32284631) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Plum Dashing Kitchen Yarmulke ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
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Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#39686962) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: territorial flirting faggot firefighter spot truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32284649) |
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Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: Red mad cow disease jewess (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32389095) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: Plum Dashing Kitchen Yarmulke https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32412323) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: Opaque titillating temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32416346) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: Plum Dashing Kitchen Yarmulke http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: vibrant indian lodge TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32441222) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: Plum Dashing Kitchen Yarmulke It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32441238) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: clear factory reset button lettuce I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: vibrant indian lodge it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: Plum Dashing Kitchen Yarmulke The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32441319) |
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Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: Plum Dashing Kitchen Yarmulke https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32458110) |
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Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: Plum Dashing Kitchen Yarmulke https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32466804) |
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Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: Plum Dashing Kitchen Yarmulke https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32560776) |
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Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: Plum Dashing Kitchen Yarmulke https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32612572) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: Plum Dashing Kitchen Yarmulke https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32714310) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: Plum Dashing Kitchen Yarmulke https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#33221553) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Opaque titillating temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#33222883) |
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Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: Plum Dashing Kitchen Yarmulke https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#34257967) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Jet-lagged hunting ground this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32441221) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: white jew One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32714399) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: Rebellious Field Windowlicker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#32891711) |
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Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: Opaque titillating temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#33097887) |
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Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: Opaque titillating temple https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#33256991) |
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Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#33605191) |
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Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#34449074) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Red mad cow disease jewess (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#34449102) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: Cordovan 180 french chef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#34449138) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#34615930) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: Sticky laughsome hall main people credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#34615959) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: puce gay wizard dopamine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#34636123) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: Wonderful Ebony University (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#34636459) |
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Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: Beady-eyed stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#34673088) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: Red mad cow disease jewess (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#34948560) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: thriller institution Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#34948572) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: Red mad cow disease jewess (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#34950581) |
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Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#35278621) |
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Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: territorial flirting faggot firefighter spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#36168381) |
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Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: Opaque titillating temple https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#36451135) |
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Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: Red mad cow disease jewess (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#36458802) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: ivory depressive parlour (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#36847087) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: Opaque titillating temple The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: cracking house alpha It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#36973680) |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#36973690) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: territorial flirting faggot firefighter spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#37090167) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: wine sexy background story Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#37090191) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: violent hominid (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#37161974) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: territorial flirting faggot firefighter spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#37161955) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: Rebellious Field Windowlicker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#37162045) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: territorial flirting faggot firefighter spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#37167335) |
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Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: Opaque titillating temple What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#37553376) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: passionate turdskin clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#37833345) |
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Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
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Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: violent hominid There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#38431500) |
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Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: Unholy stead mother (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#38431431) |
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Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: Opaque titillating temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#39135638) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: white jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#39583415) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: Opaque titillating temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#39583624) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#39849854) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: Nighttime Judgmental Property Fat Ankles (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#39849877) |
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Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM Author: Misanthropic mint love of her life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#39938878) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#40097972) |
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Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: Misanthropic mint love of her life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#40354730) |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM Author: spectacular pontificating piazza tank (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#40355911) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: Misanthropic mint love of her life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#40896459) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: white jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#40896523) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: Pink multi-colored hairy legs Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#40896526) |
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Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: Bipolar Comical Really Tough Guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#40908695) |
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Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM Author: high-end stag film (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#40977795) |
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Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM Author: Unholy stead mother (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#41079968) |
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Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: Red mad cow disease jewess (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#41088157) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM Author: glittery fanboi (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#41166967) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM Author: bistre nursing home cuckoldry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#41166990) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: Dun bat-shit-crazy legal warrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#41167039) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: Dun bat-shit-crazy legal warrant https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#41167053) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: Ruddy harsh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#44203011) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#41200021) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: Rebellious Field Windowlicker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#41202581) |
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Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: Unholy stead mother (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#41222868) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: Red mad cow disease jewess (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#41261120) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: Opaque titillating temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#44196611) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: Razzle roast beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#44202968) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: Primrose doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#44202984) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: Transparent 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#44203017) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Opaque titillating temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#44911871) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Pink multi-colored hairy legs A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#44911874) |
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Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: Opaque titillating temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#45378008) |
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Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: House-broken self-absorbed base sandwich https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#46237455) |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: fuchsia national round eye why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#46237460) |
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Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: high-end stag film (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#46252623) |
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Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: violent excitant degenerate toaster FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
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Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: Opaque titillating temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#47428670) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: high-end stag film (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#47430198) |
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Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: Opaque titillating temple https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
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Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: Opaque titillating temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48010724) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: high-end stag film (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48087201) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: Pink multi-colored hairy legs One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48087224) |
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Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: high-end stag film (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48211967) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: Chartreuse personal credit line hell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48187302) |
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Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: Opaque titillating temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48296972) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: duck-like school cafeteria kitty 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48715841) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: duck-like school cafeteria kitty https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48715847) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: ivory depressive parlour Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: Chartreuse personal credit line hell The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48715863) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: thirsty roommate He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48715869) |
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Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: Sepia prole scourge upon the earth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48716330) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: Opaque titillating temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48724299) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: scarlet appetizing 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48724306) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: Opaque titillating temple "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: Idiotic Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48727216) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: Opaque titillating temple Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#48727802) |
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Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: Jet-lagged hunting ground (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#49679495) |
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Date: May 15th, 2026 12:08 PM Author: Opaque titillating temple ABC News has now taken all FiveThirtyEight articles completely offline. They now redirect to abcnews dot com/politics. A needless erasure of thousands of pages of knowledge. https://x.com/baseballot/status/2055309076209492208 |
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Date: May 17th, 2026 11:01 AM Author: Exciting Digit Ratio Crotch i sense that there is a bit of a movement to shame ABC into providing access again.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/16/business/media/fivethirtyeight-abc-removed.html |
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Date: August 11th, 2026 2:24 AM Author: coalition of rabbis Weird how 99% of the internet disappeared one day (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Elisa#50060136) |