Date: July 1st, 2024 3:53 PM Author: pale adventurous church
the polls are fairly even and I think they might have corrected or overcorrected the Dem bias from 2020. And Pennsylvania is always an uphill battle for Republicans to win. Not saying Biden isn't weak as fuck but the election will be decided on Democratic terrain. It's silly to be overconfident.
Date: July 1st, 2024 4:01 PM Author: Fracture in the Maidenhead (gunneratttt)
trump would win if the election was held today. the biggest reason not to be overconfident is that there is a lot of time between now and novemeber. trump would have won in 2020 if the election was held before covid.
it is hard to imagine what could happen that will make trump less appealing or biden more appealing though. people primarily vote based on how they're feeling economically. at this point it's hard to imagine some sort explosive finance boon that'll happen in the next coming months that would make people feel better.
they've spent years digging into trump's skeletons, so there's not going to be some surprise from his past. he'd to have to die or do some real blunder. or if there is some 9/11 event that makes people rally around the sitting POTUS. or if biden and kamala are out of the equation.
Nothing will change because there is nothing left to explore about either of these candidates. They have been the most important people in the public eye for over a decade. The only, literally only thing I can see shifting anything is Trump being sentenced and jailed and I'm not even sure in which direction. I just think the chances something groundbreaking comes out is insanely low now.
Date: July 1st, 2024 4:13 PM Author: Fracture in the Maidenhead (gunneratttt)
that's what people said before the debate too.
plus either of them could do something new that causes people to change their minds. although for trump it would literally have to be shooting someone in mfh. if biden gets adderall flowing into his body like bain he could erase the memory of the debate, maybe. or he could just continue to sundown and further remove any doubt he's done mentally.
anytime you think this, lib, con, ((((independent)))), whatever, just go back and watch the real, unscripted Biden, the one from that debate, and remind yourself that we’re not talking about Team R vs Team D, we’re literally talking about an incapacitated shell of a man. I’m sorry but I’m legitimately confused that anyone thinks this is going to be a real election so long as Biden is on the ticket. anyone not at least implicitly advocating for that man to be removed from office immediately is in some kind of denial
Date: July 1st, 2024 10:22 PM Author: Pink contagious death wish
Trump was ahead in all polling BEFORE 50 million people watched Biden present like a crypt ghoul and another 50m+ saw clips or heard people talk about it. We just had a dozen lib publications and hundreds of pundits call for his withdrawal from the race.
If he stays in, he isn't winning. If he drops out and gets replaced by someone like Whitmer, there is a decent chance.